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Twitter Makes Total Sense If You Understand It Properly

Mother Jones

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Matt Yglesias speaks truth to power today:

I can’t tell you the number of times I’ve cut off a conversation on Twitter with something like “Signing off now. Twitter is a horrible place to discuss anything more complicated than a cookie.” And it is! People try endlessly to turn it into something it isn’t, and the result is that I routinely get told to go take a look at some “epic tweetstorm” or other that “must be Storified.” Usually it turns out to be a grand total of about 300 words split up into awkward 20-word chunks. Milton would not be impressed. It could be done way better, and possibly faster, as a simple blog post.

In fact, I’ve long imagined that Twitter originated something like this:


JACK DORSEY and BIZ STONE are sitting in a dorm hallway at NYU, where they are undergrads.1 A half-smoked joint lies between them. Earlier in the day they got assigned their class project for Communications 152.

DORSEY: Oh man. “Develop a communications medium that demonstrates as many principles of accurate information exchange as possible.” WTF?

STONE: I know. Jesus.

Next day. DORSEY and STONE are in DORSEY’s dorm room.

DORSEY: Hey, I had an idea. How about if we do a proof by contradiction?

STONE: What?

DORSEY: Let’s develop the worst communications medium possible and show how it screws things up!

STONE: Dude. That’s brilliant. Like what?

DORSEY: Well, good communication requires enough bandwidth to express an idea fully. Let’s limit ours to just a few words at a time.

STONE: And strong emotions interfere with accuracy. Let’s develop something that encourages outrage. That means digital. Like a chatroom or something. People are always going postal on those.

DORSEY: We could make it even worse. Maybe by screwing around with response times?

STONE: Sure. Latency should be just long enough to allow other people to barge in during the middle of a conversation. It would drive people crazy.

DORSEY: You’d never be sure who’s responding to what!

STONE: Right. And it should be wide open to everyone, so people can join in even if they have no idea what the conversation is about.

DORSEY: And then other people see the newcomers, and barge in themselves. It’s like the ultimate game of telephone.

STONE: You’d end up with viral mobs! It’s the worst possible environment for communicating.

DORSEY: Sure, because no one who piles on knows if they’re the only critic, or if thousands have already jumped in. You never really know who your audience is, which is one of the linchpins of good communication.

STONE: Nuance and tone are important too. We need to eliminate those.

DORSEY: We can do that by making messages really short. Text message sized. You can barely even speak English in text messages, let alone add caveats and nuance.

STONE: And no editing. Once you’ve said something, you can’t change it even if you realize you screwed up.

DORSEY: It’s tailor made for misunderstanding.

STONE: And if it were marketed right, highly verbal people would be its main consumers. They’d go nuts trying to carry on conversations on complex topics 140 characters at a time.

DORSEY: And the campus language police! Can you imagine how they’d react to every little miscue?

STONE: This is great. It’s like cutting out everyone’s tongues and dumping them into a big overheated room.

DORSEY: And it would still be good for jokes and cat videos, which would demonstrate something important about jokes and cat videos.

Twelve weeks later. DORSEY and STONE are back in the hallway.

DORSEY: He gave us a C-? That’s brutal.

STONE: “Interesting concept, but too divorced from reality.”

DORSEY: Sheesh.

Ten years later. DORSEY and STONE are drinking margaritas on DORSEY’S yacht.

DORSEY: Man, people sure are stupid.

STONE: But we’re rich!

DORSEY: Yeah. It’ll be kind of a drag if Trump wins, though. I wasn’t really expecting that.

STONE: Chill, dude. We’re rich!

Ship sails into sunset. DORSEY and STONE have enigmatic expressions on their faces. Curtain.

1Yes, I know they didn’t go to college together. Work with me here.

Continued:  

Twitter Makes Total Sense If You Understand It Properly

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My Social Security Reform Plan: One-Third-One-Third-One-Third

Mother Jones

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Atrios says that 401(k) retirement plans have been a disaster:

The current system has failed, and the exciting plan to “fix” the failed system is run the same experiment, with minor tweaks, over for another 40 years and see how that works. Of course if you just grab your trusty envelope back and do The Math, the pittance people will save in these exciting new plans will be just that, a pittance.

This is a common view on the left, usually delivered with no evidence because it’s considered so obvious that no evidence is needed. On the occasions when there is evidence, it’s usually something about the stock market being in bad shape circa 2010.

So let’s take a look at the evidence. I’ve put all of this up before, but not in one place. So let’s collect it. Here’s chart #1:

Retirement-age folks have done better than any other age group since 1974, and way better since 2000. So far so good. Here’s chart #2:

This is Social Security’s projection of median elderly income over the next 25 years. It looks pretty good too. There’s no evident crisis in these numbers. And this is not from some think tank with an axe to grind. It’s from the Social Security Administration’s MINT projection, which is probably the most comprehensive look we have at all sources of income among retired folks. Here’s chart #3:

This comes from the Center for Retirement Research, a decidedly liberal outfit. They’ve been a longtime proponent of the view that 401(k) plans are worse than old-style defined benefit pensions, but last year they revisited this question using better data. What they found is that for the past 30 years, pension wealth has stayed steady even as 401(k) plans have become more popular and DB plans have gone the way of the dodo (except in the public sector, where they’re still common). In other words 401(k)s aren’t a failure.

My final bit of data, sadly, doesn’t lend itself to chart format, so we shall have to use words instead. In 2006, Congress passed the Pension Protection Act, something that most critics of 401(k) plans seem to ignore—or perhaps are blissfully unaware of. In the past 10 years, it’s accomplished the following:

Allowed companies to automatically enroll workers (subject to an opt-out), thus increasing the number of people with 401(k)s.
Made 401(k)s more accessible to small businesses.
Increased 401(k) participation considerably among young workers and low-income workers, who need them the most.
Encouraged the use of lifecycle funds, the best type for retirement plans.

Put all these things together, and there’s very little evidence for any kind of broad retirement crisis. Retirement readiness in America seems to be about the same as it’s always been.

Does that mean everything is hunky-dory? Of course not. 401(k) fees are still too high, something that I’d dearly love to see Hillary Clinton address with new federal regulation. It’s probably also true that old-style pensions were a little more generous for low-income workers than 401(k)s, though the evidence on this score is fuzzy. What’s more, although retirement readiness is no worse than it’s been in the past, it’s not really any better either. In particular, folks at the bottom of the income ladder still don’t participate much in 401(k) programs and rely entirely on Social Security, which is pretty stingy for low earners.

My answer to this is Kevin’s One-Third-One-Third plan. That is, Social Security payments for the bottom third should be increased by a third. This would make a huge difference to the lowest-income workers, but at a pretty reasonable price. My back-of-the-envelope chicken scratchings suggest it would cost about $20-30 billion. That’s politically within reason.

There’s one other change I’d like to see, but I’ll leave that for another time. In a nutshell, there really doesn’t appear to be any kind of broad-based retirement crisis. 401(k) plans have performed decently and are likely to perform even better in the future. Our biggest retirement problem is with the lowest-income workers, and that could be fixed at a pretty modest cost if we could only muster the political will to do it.

UPDATE: I really wanted my plan to be called “One-Third-One-Third-One-Third,” but I couldn’t think of a third “One-Third.” However, @Noman suggested raising the Social Security earnings cap to pay for my plan, and it turns out that an increase in the cap of one-third would raise roughly $30 billion. Isn’t it great when a plan comes together?

So now it’s the One-Third-One-Third-One-Third plan: payments to the bottom third should be boosted one-third by raising the earnings cap one-third. Take that, Herman Cain.

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My Social Security Reform Plan: One-Third-One-Third-One-Third

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The Biggest Threat to Women’s Health That No One Talks About

Mother Jones

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The lady doctors are disappearing, right when women need them the most.

According to the American College of Nurse-Midwives, nearly half of all counties in the United States don’t have a single OB-GYN. That’s a problem because, as Pew Charitable Trusts reports, the overall population is expected to boom by 18 percent between 2010 and 2030, and that means more women and babies who need health care. Maternal deaths are already high in the United States compared with other developed countries—there are 18.5 deaths for every 100,000 live births, compared with 8.2 in Canada and 6.1 in Japan and the United Kingdom.

And while the number of births increases, the number of practicing OB-GYNs is projected to decrease even more. The American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) estimates that the United States will face a shortage of OB-GYNs—6,000 to 8,800 fewer of them than necessary—by 2020. By 2050, that shortage will grow to 22,000.

Why? A few reasons. First, the number of medical students choosing to specialize in obstetrics and gynecology has remained relatively steady since 1980, but in the past couple of years, more than four out of five first-year OB-GYNs were women. That’s a change—like most medical specialties, the field used to be dominated by men. Thomas Gellhaus, president of ACOG, said female OB-GYNs tend to retire about a decade earlier than male OB-GYNs and tend to prefer part-time schedules.

Another factor: While OB-GYNs were once expected to be available around the clock, few doctors today will put up with such a demanding schedule. This change has given way to “laborists,” providers who work only in hospitals and focus strictly on labor and deliveries.

Finally, students going into obstetrics and gynecology today are choosing more lucrative subspecialties like gynecologic oncology and reproductive endocrinology and fertility, leaving a gap in routine gynecological care providers. Opting for a subspecialty over a general OB-GYN practice could mean up to a $100,000 annual difference in salary.

One potential solution: Let certified nurse-midwives pick up the slack. A California bill introduced by state Assemblywoman Autumn Burke would remove the requirement that nurse-midwives—registered nurses who have also completed an accredited nurse-widwifery program and passed an exam given by the American Midwifery Certification Board—practice under the supervision of doctors. Pew reports that the number of nurse-midwives in the United States has risen as states have relaxed restrictions—the profession has grown by 30 percent since 2012.

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The Biggest Threat to Women’s Health That No One Talks About

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Cholera could make a comeback, thanks to climate change

Bacteria to the future

Cholera could make a comeback, thanks to climate change

By on Aug 9, 2016Share

The ’90s are back! The 1890s, that is, when handlebar mustaches were hot and cholera took hundreds of thousands lives across the globe. Over a century later, both look to be making a resurgence — the former thanks to Brooklyn scenesters and the latter thanks to climate change.

According to a new study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the waterborne bacteria that causes cholera, Vibrio, is on the rise due to warming ocean temperatures. Researchers measured Vibrio bacteria in plankton samples collected between 1958 and 2011, a period during which the surface temperature of the oceans increased by about 1.5 degrees Celsius, and found that as the temperatures got higher, so did the number of lethal bacteria.

Currently, cholera kills about 142,000 people each year worldwide — a number that could increase with climate change. People in developed nations are not at too much risk, as the disease can be mitigated with good water management. “As long as those treatment facilities remain intact, I don’t think we’re going to see outbreaks of cholera [in Europe and the United States] again,” study coauthor Rita Colwell told Scientific American

But the same cannot be said for the rest of the world. People in less-developed nations with poor sanitation systems are especially vulnerable.

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Cholera could make a comeback, thanks to climate change

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Here’s a new Olympic sport to consider: Safe sex

Smashing Records

Here’s a new Olympic sport to consider: Safe sex

By on Aug 9, 2016Share

Olympic organizers are supplying attendees with 450,000 condoms — fully three times the number available in London in 2012. “Would you be more inclined to rampantly bang in the country that gave us that guy from Love Actually, or the one that gave us that other guy from Love Actually?” pondered the Official Sexy Times Division of the International Olympic Committee, immediately before buying out several Costcos’ worth of prophylactics.

As Yahoo! Sports reports, the push for protection is partially attributed to anxieties around the Zika virus, which is sexually transmittable. But also, just as a general rule: If you’re going to have casual, celebratory, romping sex, do it with protection. Or as they say — adorably — in Brazil, with “a little shirt:”

I know what you’re thinking: “But wouldn’t it be a fantastic thing if all of these incredible physical specimens combined their perfect genes for a better world? Why are the Olympics cockblocking the beautification of our planet?”

Counterpoint:

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Here’s a new Olympic sport to consider: Safe sex

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No, Police Fatalities Are Not Going Up

Mother Jones

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Here’s another chart to prepare you for Donald Trump’s speech tonight. It shows the number of police fatalities since the violent crime peak of 1993. For 2016, I’ve extrapolated from the number of fatalities through today. As you can see, there’s nothing scary here. The number is down from two decades ago and basically flat over the five years.

See the article here: 

No, Police Fatalities Are Not Going Up

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Raw Data: How Does Social Security Compare to Retirement Programs in Other Countries?

Mother Jones

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Earlier today I wrote about retirement income in the United States, and that got me curious about how we compare to other countries. The obvious source for this is an international organization that does its best to make apples-to-apples comparisons, so I headed to the website of the OECD, the “rich countries club.” (I don’t really care how we compare to Chad. I want to know how we compare to peer countries like France and Japan.)

This in turn led me to “Pensions at a Glance,” which turned out to be an enormous misnomer: the 2015 edition is 374 pages long. I haven’t read the whole thing, of course, but I did find plenty of interesting stuff. I’m going to highlight one chart today, and maybe I’ll do others throughout the week.

So how do we compare? The answer, unsurprisingly, is: It’s complicated. There are lots of ways of comparing retirement income, and they produce different results. But there’s a single broad measure that gives a rough idea of how generous each country is: the percentage of GDP spent on pension programs. In the United States, that’s Social Security (public) plus 401(k)s, IRAs, etc. (private). Other countries give their programs different names, but they all employ a combination of public and private spending.

By itself, though, that’s not enough. Countries with more elderly people are obviously going to spend more. So you want to adjust the GDP number by how many people are retired. The OECD report doesn’t do this directly, but it does provide the old-age dependency ratio for each country, which is a good proxy. The higher the number, the more retired people a country has.

So all we have to do is divide the GDP number by the OADR number for each country. This provides a “retirement index” that indicates how generous each country’s retirement is. Here it is for public pensions only:

And here it is for all pension income, both public and private:

As with many other things, the United States relies more heavily on private spending than most rich countries. If you compare Social Security to public pensions in other countries, we’re about average. If you compare all pension income, our retirees are better off than nearly everywhere else.

Now, these are only average numbers. They don’t tell us anything about how rich retirees compare to poor ones. Social Security, for example, tends to favor poorer retirees, while private pensions favor richer ones, and it’s not easy to combine them to get a comprehensive distribution of retirement benefits. However, the OECD report has some other charts that come close to doing this, and I’ll see if I can extract one for tomorrow. In the meantime, make what you will of this raw data.

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Raw Data: How Does Social Security Compare to Retirement Programs in Other Countries?

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Explosive oil trains are feeling some serious heat this week

off the rails

Explosive oil trains are feeling some serious heat this week

By on Jul 6, 2016 6:29 pmShare

Exactly three years ago from this Wednesday, a 74-car freight train carrying 30,000 gallons of crude oil rolled into the sleepy town of Lac-Mégantic, Quebec, at 1:15 p.m. It caught the wrong edge of a turn, exploded, and in seconds became the worst Canadian rail accident since 1864, killing 47 people.

Despite this disaster, Canada and the U.S. continue to ship flammable crude through major cities all across the country — but this week, protestors are trying to end that practice.

On Wednesday, environmental and climate activists delivered a letter addressed to President Barack Obama demanding companies stop transporting crude oil by train, signed by 144 emergency responders, officials, and public interest groups. Dozens of cities across North America will play host to demonstrations aimed at stopping crude oil trains throughout the week. Already, the tag #StopOilTrains, kicked off by the environmental group Stand.earth, is populating with images from thee demonstrations.

The number of oil train shipments has exploded over the past decade, from 9,500 in 2008 to more than 400,000 in 2013, mainly due to the geyser of oil newly from North Dakota’s Bakken shale. But along with the trains came explosions — several of them located directly adjacent to densely populated places. Just last week, a train exploded near Mosier, Ore., closing local schools and sending a plume of smoke into the air.

A “blast zone” map created by Stand.earth can tell you if you’re one of the 25 million Americans who could be evacuated (or worse) in the event of an oil train derailment. From my apartment in Seattle, I found out that I’m located in the “potential impact zone” — and I can tell you right now, it doesn’t feel good.

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Explosive oil trains are feeling some serious heat this week

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California’s Wildfires Just Tripled in Size

Mother Jones

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When it comes to forest fires, California can’t seem to catch a break.

Last year was a hellacious one for uncontrolled burns, and 2016 is looking just as bad. In the past week, the number of acres scorched by wildfire has tripled from around 32,000 to more than 98,000, according to the state’s Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. The number of fires the department, known simply as Cal Fire, has responded to is slightly above the seasonal five year average. But it’s early in the fire season. (California’s 2013 Rim Fire, the largest ever recorded in the Sierra Nevada, began in early August and blazed on into October, torching more than 257,000 acres.)

Local, state, and federal firefighters have already dealt with more than 2,400 wildfires so far this season, say’s Daniel Berlant, Cal Fire’s information officer. Last week, Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency for Southern California’s Kern County, where the largest of those conflagrations still rages; the Eskrine fire covers more than 45,000 acres and is only 40 percent contained. It has killed two people so far, destroying 150 homes and damaging 75.

In recent years, drought conditions have fueled fires across the state. El Niño conditions brought badly needed rain this past winter, but the wetter conditions also begat a bumper crop of grasses that are now reduced to dry fuel. “The rain is always a blessing and a curse,” Berlant says.

In addition, thanks to prolonged drought and hungry bark beetles, California has more than 66 million dead trees, the US Forest Service estimates—more than double last year’s count. In short, the state is a tinderbox.

Ahead of the July 4 weekend, Cal Fire officials warn that they’ll be confiscating illegal fireworks. They’re also urging residents to keep fireworks away from dry, flammable materials. Which should be pretty obvious, but sadly…

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California’s Wildfires Just Tripled in Size

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Here’s What’s Killing 4 Important Pollinators (And How You Can Stop It)

Why are so many animals that pollinate our flowers, trees and food crops under siege? Generally speaking, it’s because we humans don’t value these creatures enough to band together to protect them.

So much food is available in grocery stores and farmers markets, it’s probably hard to believe that our food system might actually be threatened due to lack of pollination.

Regardless of the reason for our nonchalance, it’s a mistake. That’s because the creatures that pollinate the plants that produce our food also pollinate the plants that support the very web of life, what scientists call biodiversity. So even if you don’t care whether bees will be around to pollinate your almonds or apples, you should probably worrythat pollinatingbees, butterflies, bats and birdsmay not be around to helpthousands of plants survive in the wild.Because without all those wild plants, entire ecosystems could collapse.

To drive the point home, here’s a description of what’s killing four pollinators we depend on for both food and beauty and what you can do to stop it.

Honey Bees and Bumble Bees– Honey bees live in colonies of tens of thousands, buzzing around in a hive or a colony. The colonies have become infected with a bacteria called Paenibacillus larvae. The bees themselves have been attacked by mites. Both the mites and the bacteria, plus pesticide exposure, and the disruptive way the bees are trucked around the country to pollinate crops like almonds, have led to what scientists call colony collapse disorder.

Climate change is also a large factor, because warming global temperatures has accelerated flowering seasons and the bees haven’t quite caught up yet. In other words, flowers that bees normally depend on for food have bloomed and faded before the bees arrive to feed on them. Bees are also particularly susceptible to a kind of pesticide called a neonicotinoid. “Fully half of the 46 or 47 species of bumble bees in the U.S. seem to be in some level of decline,” reports Bioscience.

What you can do: You can help make a difference by not only gardening organically yourself, but by shifting your spending to purchasing organically grown food. Consumer demand creates the financial incentives farmers need to stop using insecticides. Show them there’s a market for food grown with pollinators in mind. On the energy front, do your part to help put the breaks on climate change by driving less, switching to solar and wind, and saving energy at home and at work. Here are some great energy saving tips you can adopt today.

Monarch Butterflies – Any animal that migrates is particularly at risk, because opportunities for them to be exposed to threats occur all along their migratory path and at virtually every stage of their life cycle. One such case is that of monarch butterflies.

These elegant creatures have a complex life cycle that takes them, in some cases all the way from the eastern seaboard of the U.S. to Mexico, a trip of 2,000 miles. As they travel,they need flowers on which to lay their eggs and nectar to eat. But lack of their primary food source, milkweed, along with rampant pesticide spraying, habitat loss and climate change, is killing monarchs in alarming numbers. Scientists say that the number of monarchs that overwintered in Mexico in 2012-2013 was only 59 percent of those that overwintered the year before, reports Bioscience. Monarchs cannot survive cold winters so they have no choice but to migrate.

What you can do:Grow a butterfly garden that will provide both food for the adults and host plants on which adults can lay eggs to support new populations. Practice organic gardening, planting milkweed and other plants that monarchs specifically love. Consider becoming a Certified Monarch Waystationand convince your neighbors and community to do the same.

Bats – In addition to loss and degradation of habitat, bats may be killed indiscriminately simply because people aresuperstitious about them or fear bats carry disease. Bats are also hunted for food and folk medicine. Non-native, invasive species like snakes, ants and feral pigs can also take their toll. Bat Conservation International saysas many as 25 of the 47 U.S. and Canadian bat species may be vulnerable to the introduced fungusPseudogymnoascus destructans, the cause of White-nose Syndrome. By some estimates, WNS has killed more than 6 million bats since 2006 in central and eastern North America.

What you can do: Support global bat conservation by “adopting” a baby bat. Urge your elected officials to support national and global policies that will protect endangered bat “hot spots,” reduce habitat destruction and fund research into strategies to protect bats. At home, build bat houses to make it easy for bats to reproduce, raise their young and shelter in a safe place. You can find instructions here.

Hummingbirds – Hummingbirds are important in the U.S. for the role they play in pollinating wildflowers. Because hummingbirds have good eyes, they’re particularly attracted to bright colors like red, yellow or orange. They love flowers that produce abundant nectar, so they manage to collect pollen on their heads and back when they stick their long beaks into the flower blossom to take a nectary slurp.

But hummingbirds face a lot of threats. Like other animals, they’re losing habitat as suburbs expand, industrial agriculture spreads and clearcutting knocks down forests. Hummingbirds are much smaller than may other birds which makes them more vulnerable to pesticides, insecticides, fertilizers and pollution. They could be attacked by cats, fly into windows or get diseases from dirty hummingbird feeders. Plus, invasive plants might crowd out the native nectar producers that hummingbirds need to survive.

What you can do: If you have a cat, keep it inside, particularly during the day, when hummingbirds are out and feeding. Put up a hummingbird feeder, but clean it regularly so that the food it provides is clean and healthy to eat. Of course, garden organically and use no toxic chemicals in and around your yard. Urge your neighbors to do the same, and work with local officials to create non-toxic, safe habitats for all of the pollinators that visit your ecoregion. And plantcardinal flowers and other plants specifically to attract and nourish hummingbirds.

Related
An Easy Guide to Saving Energy at Home
How to Create a Pollinator Oasis Right at Home

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are solely those of the author and may not reflect those of Care2, Inc., its employees or advertisers.

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Here’s What’s Killing 4 Important Pollinators (And How You Can Stop It)

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