Tag Archives: place

Obama’s Approval Rating Is Remarkably Steady No Matter What Happens

Mother Jones

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Jonathan Bernstein writes today that President Obama’s approval rating has pulled ahead of George Bush’s approval rating at this point in his presidency. “This is not to say Obama is doing well,” he warns. “Unless his recent improvement gathers steam, he’s going to be a drag on Democrats in November, though he won’t be as big a drag as Bush was for his party in the 2006 midterms.”

This prompted me to click the link and check out Obama’s approval rating in the HuffPollster’s polling average. This may not be a surprise to any of you, but I don’t follow Obama’s polls very closely and I was a bit startled by how consistent his ratings have been. The chart below shows Obama’s average approval over the past four years. It hovers around 47 percent, and it hasn’t moved more than four points above or below that in the entire time. Right now he’s about three points below his long-term mean, and as usual, he’s reverting to it after sinking a bit during his annus horribilis of 2013.

I don’t really have a point to make here. I’m just surprised that his numbers have been so steady for so long, so I thought I’d share.

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Obama’s Approval Rating Is Remarkably Steady No Matter What Happens

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Let Us Sing a Dirge for "Spit and Image"

Mother Jones

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We got some quick work from the Times copy desk today: the blurb on the left lasted only a couple of minutes before someone rebelled and fixed it. This reminds me of a Slate column from a couple of years ago in which Juliet Lapidos tried bravely to defend her use of spit and image on the grounds that “it makes more sense to me,” but that’s hopeless. Idioms aren’t supposed to make sense. (On the other hand, her plea to “make absolutely sure that you’re right, and the author’s wrong” before sending out grammar police nastygrams is good advice.)

It’s possible that you’re surprised to see this usage at all. But until the mid-50s it was pretty common. However, as a quick glance at the Google Ngram viewer will show you, that was its last hoorah. For more than a decade, spitting image has been more than 20x more common than its original variant. It’s time to throw in the towel.

UPDATE: Now it’s been changed yet again, to “who also looks nearly identical to Kermit.” I guess spitting image didn’t pass muster at the Gray Lady either.

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Let Us Sing a Dirge for "Spit and Image"

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GOP Offers Up a New Health Care Propo….z z z z z….al

Mother Jones

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I hear that House Republicans have a shiny new health care plan they plan to introduce sometime soon. Before I read past the headlines, let me take a guess at what’s in it:

Tort reform
Health savings accounts
Interstate purchase of health plans
High-risk pools

OK, now let’s take a look. Here is Robert Costa in the Washington Post:

The plan includes an expansion of high-risk insurance pools, promotion of health savings accounts and inducements for small businesses to purchase coverage together. The tenets of the plan — which could expand to include the ability to buy insurance across state lines, guaranteed renewability of policies and changes to medical-malpractice regulations — are ideas that various conservatives have for a long time backed as part of broader bills.

Hmmm. It looks like I missed a couple of things: “inducements” for small businesses and “guaranteed renewability” of policies. Still, I nailed the main points. That’s a pretty amazing feat of crystal ball gazing, isn’t it?

No, of course not. It’s like predicting that a Republican tax plan will include lower rates on the rich. They might package it in different wrapping paper, but it’s always the same old stuff. And it’s worth keeping in mind that guaranteed renewability of policies has been the law for a long time, so it’s unlikely the GOP plan actually offers anything substantive on that point. Ditto for the small business “inducements,” which will probably just turn out to be tax cuts of some kind.

Basically, Republican health care proposals are always, always, always a repackaging of the four tired old points above. Nobody seriously thinks that any of them will expand access to health care in any serious way, but that doesn’t matter. These are the only things Republicans can all agree on, so that’s what they always propose. Whether it works or not isn’t really the point.

If you want more detail about all this, rather than just my exasperated Cliff Notes version, check out Jonathan Cohn here. He has it all covered.

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GOP Offers Up a New Health Care Propo….z z z z z….al

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Obamacare is Probably Safe, But It’s Not a Slam Dunk

Mother Jones

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I was chatting with a friend this weekend about what Republicans will do if they manage to win total control of the government in 2016. Will they abolish the filibuster and repeal Obamacare? I think the odds are low. At a guess, I’d put the chances of winning total control at p=20%, the conditional odds of abolishing the filibuster at p=50%, and the conditional odds of then repealing Obamacare at p=50%. (Why so low for repeal? Because by 2017 there are going to be a lot of people benefiting from parts of Obamacare; at least a few Republicans will recognize that you really can’t repeal just the unpopular bits; and the health care industry will have spent billions of dollars committing itself to operating within the framework of the law.) So that’s about a 5% chance that Obamacare dies in 2017. Not zero, but not very significant either.

But what about 2015? What if Republicans win the Senate later this year? Paul Waldman surveys the landscape and notes that House and Senate Republicans are offering very different campaign visions of what to do about Obamacare:

See the difference? The senators accept that the ACA is law and are thinking about how they’d like to change it. The House members are coming up with another way to make a futile, symbolic shaking of their fists in the general direction of the White House. And this may offer a clue to how legislating would proceed in a Republican Congress. The House, still dominated by extremely conservative Republicans for whom any hint of compromise is considered the highest treason, could continue to pass one doomed bill after another, while the Senate tries to write bills that have at least some chance of ever becoming law.

And that would be just fine with Barack Obama. If he’s faced with both houses controlled by the opposition, there’s nothing he’d rather see than them fighting with each other and passing only unrealistic bills that he can veto without worrying about any backlash from the public.

Allow me to be a bit more pessimistic. Even if they lose the Senate, Democrats will still have the filibuster available to them, and they’ll use it. And as Waldman says, Obama can veto anything he doesn’t like.

But there are two wild cards here. First, the usual way that you get difficult provisions passed is by tacking them onto must-pass legislation. Pentagon appropriations bills are the traditional favorites. Depending on the provision, this might require monkeying around with the reconciliation rules, but Republicans have few scruples about that. So the odds are that we’ll end up with yet another series of showdowns. Maybe not huge debt-ceiling style showdowns, but big fund-the-military type showdowns. And the question is who wins.

And that brings up the second wild card: will Democrats stay united in defense of Obamacare? After watching Dems scatter like frightened children over the nomination of Debo Adegbile to lead the Justice Department’s civil rights division, and then scatter again when the NRA started mau-mauing them over Vivek Murthy’s nomination as Surgeon General—well, you have to wonder, don’t you? Add in the fact that Democrats have been running away from Obamacare for months, and it’s hardly unrealistic to think that they might be less than adamantine when it comes to a showdown over protecting Obamacare while Fox News is pillorying them nightly as playing politics with our brave troops in order to save a failed health care policy.

As it happens, I’d say the odds of caving in are fairly low. Even if Republicans win the Senate, they’d need eight or nine Democrats to defect in order to break a filibuster. And Obama isn’t running for anything. He can afford to hold out.

Still, it’s not a slam dunk. Republicans won’t be able to repeal Obamacare if they win the Senate later this year, but there’s a chance they could do it some damage. It all depends on how willing Democrats are to defend their principles. Unfortunately, that’s always a thin reed.

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Obamacare is Probably Safe, But It’s Not a Slam Dunk

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US Announces Plan to Give Up Control Over Internet Plumbing

Mother Jones

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Well, this is interesting:

U.S. officials announced plans Friday to relinquish federal government control over the administration of the Internet, a move likely to please international critics but alarm many business leaders and others who rely on smooth functioning of the Web.

Pressure to let go of the final vestiges of U.S. authority over the system of Web addresses and domain names that organize the Internet has been building for more than a decade and was supercharged by the backlash to revelations about National Security Agency surveillance last year.

I won’t pretend I’m thrilled about this, even if it was probably inevitable at some point. Whatever else you can say about the United States and the leverage its intelligence community gets from control over internet plumbing, it’s also true that the US has been a pretty competent and reliable administrator of the most revolutionary and potentially subversive network ever invented. Conversely, global organizations don’t have a great track record at technocratic management, and world politics—corrosive at best, illiberal and venal at worst—could kill the goose that laid the golden egg. I certainly understand why the rest of the world chafes at American control, but I nonetheless suspect that it might be the best of a bad bunch of options.

Then again, maybe not. There are also plenty of global standards-setting organizations that do a perfectly good job. Slowly and bureaucratically, maybe, but that’s to be expected. Maybe ICANN will go the same way. We’ll see.

In any case, I think we can expect Republicans to go ballistic over this.

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US Announces Plan to Give Up Control Over Internet Plumbing

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Friday Cat Blogging – 14 March 2014

Mother Jones

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The sun has been back for two weeks now and Domino has decided it’s probably safe to come outside. Not very far outside, mind you, but she does adore the stiffly-bristled welcome mat we have outside our front door. It’s a great place to scratch an itch, and when you’re done, it catches the afternoon sun and provides a lovely napping spot.

In other news, click here and decide if you think I look like a badass. I think perhaps the headline writer was engaging in a wee flight of fancy. However, I commend to my editors the reporter’s deadpan note about how I feel about blogging: “For him, it’s ‘the perfect job,’ noting he rarely hears from his bosses at Mother Jones.” That, um, didn’t quite turn out right, did it?

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Friday Cat Blogging – 14 March 2014

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If Crimea Really is Important, Tell Us What Obama Ought to Do About It

Mother Jones

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Fareed Zakaria has a piece in the Washington Post about Ukraine. Here’s the headline:

Why (this time) Obama must lead

So I clicked. Plenty of sensible stuff. The EU dithered. Ukraine blew up. Putin responded stupidly. “Let’s not persist in believing that Moscow’s moves have been strategically brilliant,” Zakaria says. His invasion of Crimea has turned the rest of Ukraine irretrievably pro-Western; triggered lots of anti-Russian sentiment on his borders; soured relations with Poland and Hungary; and sparked Western sanctions that are going to hurt.

And Zakaria says this is important stuff. “The crisis in Ukraine is the most significant geopolitical problem since the Cold War….And it involves a great global principle: whether national boundaries can be changed by brute force. If it becomes acceptable to do so, what will happen in Asia, where there are dozens of contested boundaries — and several great powers that want to remake them?”

OK, fine. So what should Obama do? Here it is:

Obama must rally the world, push the Europeans and negotiate with the Russians.

Go ahead and click the link if you don’t believe me. This is, literally, the sum total of Zakaria’s advice. So what’s the point? Obviously Obama is already doing this. Is he doing it badly? Is he pressing for the wrong sanctions? Is he working too much behind the scenes and not enough publicly? Should he be threatening a military response? Should he ask Zach Galifianakis to tape an episode of “Between Two Ferns” with Vladimir Putin? Or what?

Maybe I’m more frustrated than usual with this because I tend to like Zakaria. Sure, he’s sometimes a little bit too weather-vaney for my taste, but he’s smart and practical and tends to understand the big picture pretty well. So why not tell us what he thinks the US response should be? We could use some judicious advice to make up for the tsunami of idiocy emanating from the crackpot wing of the foreign policy community right now.

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If Crimea Really is Important, Tell Us What Obama Ought to Do About It

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Hostage Taking Is Back!

Mother Jones

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Last month I passed along the news that, in a break with recent tradition, Congress might actually do something useful and pass a permanent fix to Medicare’s Sustainable Growth Rate, a well-meaning policy that turned out not to be sustainable at all when its formula started calling for actual cuts in payments to doctors. Every year Congress addresses this by passing a one-year “doc fix,” but recently a bipartisan effort finally came together to pass a permanent modification. Hooray!

But now it turns out that congressional Republicans enjoy the tradition of dysfunctional government too much to give it up. Sahil Kapur reports that hostage-taking is back:

House Republicans expect to vote this Friday on legislation that would risk steep, destabilizing Medicare cuts at the end of the month unless Democrats agree to a five-year delay of Obamacare’s individual mandate.

It mirrors some of the brinkmanship in the government shutdown fight last fall in that the GOP is using a must-pass bill as a vehicle to chop the Affordable Care Act. Democratic leaders have repeatedly rejected proposals to tinker with the mandate to buy insurance and have warned Republicans not to tie a physician payment fix to their partisan quest to unravel Obamacare.

Insurance companies oppose this. Doctors oppose this. The CBO says it would be a disaster. It obviously has no chance of passing. But it looks like Republicans are going right up to the brink once again. I guess that once you’ve tasted the thrill of threatening to shoot a hostage, nothing else quite compares.

Besides, there’s a midterm election coming up. Have I mentioned that before?

Source: 

Hostage Taking Is Back!

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Chart of the Day: China’s Debt Bubble Continues to Swell

Mother Jones

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Via Paul Krugman, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi give us the chart below today to chew over. It shows China’s declining trade surplus over the past decade, which authorities have effectively offset by a dramatic increase in private credit in order to boost domestic demand. The authors explain how this happened:

China got a break starting 2003….The rest of the world — and in particular the United States — was willing to borrow hundreds of billions of dollars every year to purchase Chinese goods (among other things)….The result was reduced pressure on domestic debt creation, and domestic debt went down from 125% of GDP in 2003 to almost 100% of GDP in 2008.

….The continued borrowing by western countries was not sustainable and by 2008 global demand for Chinese goods collapsed….How could China create new demand for its productive capacity? The answer once again came in the form of a rapid rise in domestic private debt. The Chinese state-owned banks with explicit prodding from the government opened their spigots. The country has seen an explosive growth in domestic private debt since 2008.

Is this sustainable? Probably not. It’s yet another reason to be concerned about the continued fragility of the global economy. We’re probably not strong enough to withstand a major shock from China.

Link:

Chart of the Day: China’s Debt Bubble Continues to Swell

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Le1f’s Latest Is a Panty Dropper, No Matter Your Gender

Mother Jones

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“I’m being really ratchet right now,” the up-and-coming rapper Le1f tells me over the phone. He’s on a train, and I’ve asked him what his wildest music video fantasy would look like. He laughs, but he doesn’t demur. “I don’t think I’m being like Marina Abramovic, but that’s totally where I want to take it: pulling strands of pearls through wounds in my body while rapping. That sounds really crackin’ to be honest.”

If you don’t know Le1f, aka Khalif Diouf, you will. He’s been making waves in the New York rap scene among queer and straight listeners alike. And for all his subversive ideas, he’s got the potential for broad appeal. (Referring to him as a “gay rapper,” while accurate, is a misdirection, he points out; “female rap” isn’t a genre either.)

Hey, Le1f’s new EP dropping tomorrow, includes the single “Boom.” (“How many batty boys can you fit in a jeep?”) It’s his first project since signing with Terrible Records, a move that establishes his position in the indie scene with labelmates like Grizzly Bear and Dev Hynes. The deal is part of a joint venture with XL recordings, which carries blockbuster names such as Thom Yorke and Vampire Weekend. “I don’t necessarily need it to be a fucking Lady Gaga, Janet Jackson production,” he says. “But I definitely have ideas that require screens and projection and hired dancers.”

At Wesleyan University, where he majored in dance, Le1f, 24, wrote beats for Das Racist, including the track “Combination Pizza Hut and Taco Bell,” which made them internet famous. But Le1f was destined to make his own mark on the widening hip-hop landscape. He has released three mixtapes, most recently Tree House, whose track “Damn Son” Pitchfork called an “unqualified banger.”

When I ask Le1f for a tour of his musical influences, he narrates his version of Genesis in a matter-of-fact tone. “Music history starts in 1994 with Aaliyah. And then you put on Missy Elliott and Timbaland and that’s the second day, and on the third day there was Lil’ Kim and Junior Mafia. After that it’s like Bjork and weird shit.”

Perhaps the most unique thing about Le1f’s music is it’s deep sensuality in a genre that tends toward phallus comparisons, the objectification of women, and the trivialization of sex. He is at times theatrical or ironic, but the defining characteristic of his music is potency. His lush, clubby beats and agile lyrical delivery thrust him toward a trajectory of pop-rap radio play.

That’s not to say his lyrics lack depth or timely social commentary. “It’s my place to talk about issues within the gay community as well as gay rights,” he says. “Taxi,” one of the songs on his forthcoming full-length album, is about “racist gay dudes in the club” who ignore him precisely the way taxi cab drivers ignore him on the street.

“The Gaystream doesn’t care about diversity,” Le1f says. “I’m not going to shy away from what it feels like to be unaccepted as a gay person.”

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Le1f’s Latest Is a Panty Dropper, No Matter Your Gender

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