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In Which I Take a Second Look at Hillary Clinton’s Paid Speeches

Mother Jones

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While we pass the time waiting for tonight’s debate, I’m going to talk through something else. Yesterday I wrote about one of the emails in the Podesta hack, and basically dismissed it. It was a review of the most potentially damaging statements from Hillary Clinton’s paid speeches, and none of them struck me as damaging at all. Since then, several people I respect have suggested that they really are problematic. So let’s go through the ones that are getting the most attention. There are eight.

1. Public and private positions: “I mean, politics is like sausage being made. It is unsavory, and it always has been that way, but we usually end up where we need to be. But if everybody’s watching, you know, all of the back room discussions and the deals, you know, then people get a little nervous, to say the least. So, you need both a public and a private position.”

I get how this can be spun to make it look like Clinton is advocating that politicians should lie publicly. But seriously? This is just Negotiation 101. You always have a public position—We will never compromise!—and a private one—What will it take for you guys to make a deal? Anyone over the age of five knows this is how all negotiation everywhere works. The faux outrage over this doesn’t impress me.

2. Oversimplification: “That was one of the reasons that I started traveling in February of ’09, so people could, you know, literally yell at me for the United States and our banking system causing this everywhere. Now, that’s an oversimplification we know, but it was the conventional wisdom. And I think that there’s a lot that could have been avoided in terms of both misunderstanding and really politicizing what happened with greater transparency, with greater openness on all sides.”

First, Clinton is acknowledging that it’s an oversimplification to say that the US banking system was solely responsible for the 2008 crash. Surely everyone understands now that this is true? European banks were heavily leveraged too, and were just as eager as US banks to lend too much money with too little oversight. They were also eager to play the derivatives game. What’s more, there was more to the housing bubble than just the banks. Clinton’s statement here seems unexceptional to me.

Second, she suggests that more transparency from the banks might have prevented “politicizing” the crisis. This probably merits a closer look than I originally gave it. Is she referring to Republican opposition to TARP? That would be reasonable. Or is she talking about taking a tough line against bank executives? That would be harder to excuse. Clinton would need to explain what she meant before we can really make any judgment about this.

3. Bankers know the banking system best: “Today, there’s more that can and should be done that really has to come from the industry itself.” AND: “There’s nothing magic about regulations, too much is bad, too little is bad. How do you get to the golden key, how do we figure out what works? And the people that know the industry better than anybody are the people who work in the industry.”

This doesn’t sound great, I admit. On the other hand, Clinton is talking to bankers. So naturally she’s talking about the role bankers can play in reforming financial regulation. Her wording may not thrill me, but it’s not as if she’s suggesting that the finance industry should be allowed to regulate itself. It’s hard to get too worked up about this.

4. Principled bankers: “When I was a Senator from New York, I represented and worked with so many talented principled people who made their living in finance. But even thought I represented them and did all I could to make sure they continued to prosper, I called for closing the carried interest loophole and addressing skyrocketing CEO pay. I also was calling in ’06, ’07 for doing something about the mortgage crisis, etc.”

This is a nothingburger. There are plenty of principled people in the finance industry, and there’s nothing wrong with saying so. And anyway, the gist of this excerpt is that even though she represented New York in the Senate, Clinton still called for regulating the finance industry because it was the right thing to do. This strikes me as entirely positive.

5. Bias against successful people: “But, you know, part of the problem with the political situation, too, is that there is such a bias against people who have led successful and/or complicated lives. You know, the divestment of assets, the stripping of all kinds of positions, the sale of stocks. It just becomes very onerous and unnecessary.”

This is actually a pretty common criticism of public service these days: we lose a lot of good people because we make it too onerous to serve. The disclosure forms are hundreds of pages long. The divestment rules are thorny. The Senate hearings are nasty and partisan. It takes months or more to get through the whole thing. Plenty of people agree that things have gotten out of hand on this front.

6. Simpson-Bowles: “But Simpson-Bowles — and I know you heard from Erskine earlier today — put forth the right framework. Namely, we have to restrain spending, we have to have adequate revenues, and we have to incentivize growth.”

A few people have tried to play this as an attack on Social Security, since the Simpson-Bowles plan included cuts to Social Security. This is ridiculous. Clinton is obviously taking about generalities: tackling the federal deficit by cutting spending and raising more revenue.

7. Open borders: “My dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders, some time in the future with energy that is as green and sustainable as we can get it, powering growth and opportunity for every person in the hemisphere.”

I really have no idea what this is about, but I assume Clinton is talking about some possible far future scenario, and pandering a bit to her Brazilian audience. She’s never even remotely taken any actions that would push us toward a “hemispheric common market.” Meh.

8. Protectionism: “I think we have to have a concerted plan to increase trade….Governments can either make it easy or make it hard and we have to resist, protectionism, other kinds of barriers to market access and to trade.”

I guess the Bernie supporters will take this as some kind of huge betrayal, but I don’t. Clinton is opposed to protectionism. I’ve never thought otherwise, and I don’t think anyone else has either.

Out of all this, I have two questions. What did Clinton mean by “politicizing” the financial crisis? And what did she mean when she kinda sorta implied that we should listen more to bankers because they know the banking system the best?

That’s it. In other news, we learned that Clinton is pretty much the same person in private that she is in public. She’s moderate, pragmatic, and willing to work across the aisle. She dislikes protectionism and thinks we should try to cut the budget deficit in a balanced way. She doesn’t demonize Wall Street.

You may or may not like this, but it’s who Hillary Clinton has been forever. There are no surprises here. So while I may have skipped past a couple of small things too quickly on my first read, my overall opinion remains the same: There’s just nothing here that’s plausibly damaging, even when it’s run through the Donald Trump alternate universe pie hole. I guess we’ll find out tonight if I’m right.

POSTSCRIPT: It’s also worth noting that this is apparently the worst, most banker-sympathetic stuff they could find out of thousands of pages of speeches to bankers. If anything, this suggests that Clinton hasn’t privately said much of anything that’s especially friendly to Wall Street.

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In Which I Take a Second Look at Hillary Clinton’s Paid Speeches

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Before Republicans Ran from Donald Trump, They Let Him Win the Nomination

Mother Jones

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Republican politicians began abandoning Donald Trump in droves Saturday, just hours after an unearthed video from 2005 revealed the Republican nominee crudely bragging about what amounted to sexual assault. After months of demurring while Trump’s offensive comments piled up, dozens of leaders are finally walking away from their party’s nominee. Now, many say they can’t support him. Some are even urging the party to deploy some sort of last-minute maneuver to remove Trump from the GOP ticket.

But as the party engages in a collective weekend meltdown, it’s important to remember that Trump’s nomination wasn’t inevitable. There’s no doubt that Trump tapped into an anti-establishment, grassroots fervor that helped him win the nomination. But there was a months-long slog, during which time Republicans—many of whom are now denouncing him—could have have put up a fight against him. When Trump effectively clinched the nomination by winning the Indiana primary on May 3, the Republican establishment had barely lifted a finger to deprive Trump of the nomination.

Even before Friday’s revelations by The Washington Post, anti-Trump Republican strategists were expressing dismay at how easy it had become for Trump to take over the entire party.

“I was extremely surprised by how easy people rolled over for him,” Tim Miller, a Republican in the Never-Trump camp, told Mother Jones in an interview shortly before the 2005 video was released Friday afternoon. “I never could have imagined, even as late as last year, that the establishment of the Republican Party in Washington would just completely roll over for Trump and there would be minimal objection to his nomination. It just blew me away that there were not mass resignations or very visible objections.”

Miller, an alum of the Republican National Committee, worked as Jeb Bush’s communications director. When Bush dropped out of the primary after the South Carolina primary on February 20, Miller went to work for Our Principles PAC, an anti-Trump effort funded largely by billionaires Joe and Marlene Ricketts.

“There was still plenty of time to slow down Trump and to stop Trump,” Miller recalled. He said the super PAC tried to get Republicans leaders in upcoming primary states to object to Trump, from governors, congressmen, and senators to retired politicians and conservative pundits. His group had almost no luck.

“You know, this was doable,” Miller said. “And because a lot of politicians did not want to take the risk, because a lot of them did not feel like Ted Cruz was that much better—which was BS—nobody stuck their neck out there. And I, you know, I can’t believe it.”

Not only did Republican officials refuse to stick their necks out, neither did more than a handful of Republican donors. “The Ricketts, to their credit, stuck their neck out on this and created this PAC,” Miller said. “After Jeb dropped out there were a few other donors who got on board. But it was a small number of donors who were carrying a big load on this for sure.”

In the end, even that wasn’t enough. The Ricketts later switched sides and gave $1 million to a super PAC supporting Trump.

Of course, Trump hasn’t changed in the months since he was just one of 17 candidates. Back then, he was still a birther with a history of misogynist behavior (which he continued during the campaign), spreading fear towards immigrants and Muslims. And yet, as Miller put it, the establishment just “rolled over for him.”

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Before Republicans Ran from Donald Trump, They Let Him Win the Nomination

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A Note to Sunday’s Debate Hosts: Focus on Trump’s Actions, Not His Words

Mother Jones

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Obviously Pussygate has to be addressed at tomorrow’s debate. In theory, all the questions will come from the audience, but I’m assuming the moderators will open things up with a question or two of their own. My recollection—possibly mistaken—is that this is how past town-hall style debates have worked.

I hope so, anyway, because that will give them a chance to ask Trump the right question. They need to ask not about Donald Trump’s lewd comments, but about his actual behavior. On the tape, Trump says “You know I’m automatically attracted to beautiful â&#128;&#149; I just start kissing them….And when you’re a star they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab ’em by the pussy. You can do anything.

Forget the “locker room bantering.” The question for Trump needs to be: How many times has this happened? How many times have you grabbed women “by the pussy”?


It’s been obvious for a long time that the Republican Party has a big demographic problem: their core base is white voters, but the country is getting less and less white every year. Republicans are well aware of this, and have worked assiduously to overcome this weakness. In the early 90s, they zealously pursued pack-and-crack gerrymandering to create more majority-white congressional districts. A few years later Fox News came along, dedicated to nurturing the GOP’s white base. George Bush and Karl Rove squeezed the last few drops out of the white evangelical community. Finally, in the late aughts, Republican legislatures passed a raft of voter ID laws in a last ditch attempt to suppress the non-white vote by a point or two.

But that was it. What more could they possibly do? The answer, to my surprise, was to nominate a man who was a straight-up bigot, and then run a campaign that was only a hair’s breadth from being openly white nationalist. But it didn’t work. Even in a Republican year against a flawed opponent, Donald Trump has lost as much as he’s gained from his bald-faced appeal to whites. And now that his defeat is all but certain, the question hanging over the GOP is simple: what’s next?

It’s now plain—beyond any doubt—that Republicans can no longer win the presidency with only their white base. But after Hurricane Donald’s performance this year, they’re even further in the hole with minorities than ever. And there’s really no sense that their white base is ready to accept a more minority-friendly party anyway. Past attempts at “post-mortems” and “autopsies” that recommended even bare minimum amounts of outreach to women and minorities were quickly and thoroughly crushed.

So now what?


I’m kind of curious: how do you think the whole “grab ’em by the pussy” affair would have played out if we’d had a transcript but no tape? The same? Or would it have dropped quickly out of sight without some audio and video to play constantly on cable news? I’d guess the latter. The power of sound and images has always been strong, but in the past couple of decades it’s become simply immense. “Photo or it didn’t happen” is a bit of a Twitter/Instagram/Snapchat joke, but it’s not really much of a joke anymore.


Last month, after Donald Trump Jr. decided to compare refugees to a bowl of Skittles, the Mars Corporation felt obligated to tweet a response. So naturally, now that Tic Tacs are on a 24/7 cable loop as Donald Trump’s favored breath mint before assaulting women, they too feel the need to put out a statement:

Which colorful pellet-shaped food item will be next?


From a purely political perspective, should Democrats root for Trump to drop out of the race? On the one hand, it would throw the Republican Party into total chaos. That has to be good for Team D. On the other hand, it would allow Republicans to start fresh with a new candidate who wasn’t a huge albatross around their necks. On the third hand, it would demoralize Trump’s core supporters, who might stay home entirely and leave the field wide open for downballot Democrats to win a landslide victory. On the fourth hand, Hillary Clinton is none too popular, and a Trumpless GOP might very well re-attract a lot of moderate voters who have steadily defected thanks to Khan-Curiel-Machado-$916-Million-gate

Thoughts?

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A Note to Sunday’s Debate Hosts: Focus on Trump’s Actions, Not His Words

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Here’s What Trump’s Sexist Views Mean for the War on Women

Mother Jones

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Donald Trump’s positions on women’s issues, previous statements about women, and long history of sexism have become central issues about his character during his campaign for the presidency. A new ad will go after the GOP candidate’s position on abortion by using his own words against him.

Planned Parenthood Votes and Priorities USA Action, the main super-PAC supporting the Hillary Clinton campaign, have created a new digital ad that will play as preroll footage on web videos, as well as on Facebook and Instagram. This is part of a larger ad campaign aimed at women in North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, key swing states in the presidential contest.

The effort comes as the Trump campaign tries to push back against accusations that the Republican presidential candidate is sexist. During a Wednesday interview with a Las Vegas NBC affiliate, Trump addressed his history of demeaning statements toward women, saying that “a lot of that was done for the purpose of entertainment.”

The ad also appears days after the only vice presidential debate of the campaign cycle, where Trump’s running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, said that he “cannot conscience a party that supports” abortion. Pence, who recently said he wants to “send Roe v. Wade to the ash heap of history,” has signed several pieces of extreme anti-abortion legislation during his time as the governor of Indiana, including a bill that required that aborted fetuses be cremated or buried.

The ad opens with Trump’s now infamous exchange with MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, in which he said, “There has to be some form of punishment” for women who get abortions, adding that he wanted to ban the procedure. The video also shows footage of Trump discussing his pro-life background and his desire to see Planned Parenthood defunded. “Donald Trump is too dangerous for women,” the video concludes.

“This is the most anti-woman ticket we’ve seen in decades. Donald Trump would ban abortion, defund Planned Parenthood, and even make it more difficult to access birth control,” Deirdre Schifeling, executive director of Planned Parenthood Votes, said in a statement. “We will not let Mike Pence and Donald Trump strip rights away from the women of America.”

The digital ads will run from October 10 through Election Day.

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Here’s What Trump’s Sexist Views Mean for the War on Women

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Watch This GOP Commentator Brutally Take Down Trump

Mother Jones

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Ana Navarro, a political commentator for CNN, ABC, and Telemundo, went off on former Donald Trump advisor Michael Caputo after he denied that Trump’s comments about Mexican immigrants were racist.

“Ana, for you to sit here and call Donald Trump a flat out racist is outrageous,” Caputo said during a heated debate on Wednesday’s CNN Tonight.

Navarro doubled down, calling Donald Trump a racist not just in one language, but two. “Es un racista,” she said. “He is a bigot, he is a racist, he is a misogynist.” She later went on to Twitter to reinforce her views on the Republican candidate:

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Watch This GOP Commentator Brutally Take Down Trump

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Watch Donald Trump Lecture Americans For Not Paying Taxes

Mother Jones

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This weekend the New York Times detonated a bombshell by reporting that Donald Trump, using a loophole that benefits wealthy dynastic families, declared nearly a billion dollar loss on his 1995 tax returns—a loss that possibly allowed him to avoid paying any federal taxes for 18 years. (The full impact of this loss is not publicly known because Trump has stubbornly refused to follow the traditional practice for presidential candidates releasing his tax returns.) The Times account included a damning quote from Trump’s former accountant: “Here the guy was building incredible net worth and not paying tax on it.” After the story broke, the Trump campaign released a statement blasting the newspaper, calling Hillary Clinton more crooked than Richard Nixon, and claiming Trump “has paid hundreds of millions of dollars in property taxes, sales and excise taxes, real estate taxes, city taxes, state taxes, employee taxes and federal taxes, along with very substantial charitable contributions.”

Without his tax returns, there is no way to determine if the campaign’s assertion about Trump’s taxes and charitable contributions is true. But in the past, Trump has frequently decried other Americans for not paying taxes.

On July 18, 2011, Trump appeared on Fox News and was asked about President Barack Obama’s comments that well-to-do Americans should make a sacrifice for the country by paying more in taxes. He replied:

Well, I don’t mind sacrificing for the country to be honest with you. But you know, you do have a problem because half of the people don’t pay any tax. And when he’s talking about that he’s talking about people that aren’t also working, that are not contributing to this society. And it’s a problem. But we have 50 percent. It just hit the 50 percent mark. Fifty percent of the people are paying no tax.

Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com

This was a Republican talking point—and a misleading one. It was true that close to 50 percent of Americans did not pay federal income tax, but that was because they did not earn enough money to be hit by this tax. Many of these people were working for low wages, or were seniors or young people not earning wages, and they paid other taxes, including Social Security and property taxes. Yet here was Trump brandishing a favorite club of the GOP—makers vs. takers—to denigrate half of the nation.

In February 2012, Trump turned to Twitter to grouse about this.

Later that year, Mother Jones reported that Mitt Romney had privately derided 47 percent of Americans as shiftless individuals who could not be bothered to take responsibility for their own lives. Trump hit Fox News to advise Romney not to apologize for the remark. And he again complained that half of Americans do not pay taxes and expect hand-outs from the government:

He should never apologize. Actually bring on this discussion….It’s a discussion that maybe should be had. You do have a large percentage of people not paying taxes. You do have a large percentage of people that feel they’re entitled.

In these comments, Trump was slamming people who didn’t pay income taxes for feeling entitled and for essentially screwing those Americans who do.

More recently, Trump reiterated his criticism that 50 percent of Americans are free-riders, not contributing to society (presumably by not working and not paying taxes) and expecting to be taken care of by others. In a June 2015 interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, Trump exclaimed,

The problem we have right now—we have a society that sits back and says we don’t have to do anything. Eventually, the 50 percent cannot carry—and it’s unfair to them—but cannot carry the other 50 percent.

Watch the latest video at video.foxnews.com

Trump is now on the griddle for possibly exploiting a tax loophole that allowed him to amass wealth without paying federal taxes. His accountant told the New York Times that he harbored misgivings about this. Yet Trump boasted at the first presidential debate that if he did pay no taxes that was a “smart” move.

Perhaps it was a brilliant financial move. But how odious would it be if Trump was castigating low-income, working Americans for not paying federal income taxes while enjoying a billionaire’s lifestyle and stiffing Uncle Sam. There is, of course, only one way for Trump to clear up this matter: release his tax returns. They might indeed show how he was a genius at avoiding taxation—but also a hypocrite.

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Watch Donald Trump Lecture Americans For Not Paying Taxes

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Trump Praised Saudi Arabia’s Shariah Law for Making It Easy for Men to Get Divorced

Mother Jones

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In order to avoid admitting to cheating on his wife, Donald Trump invoked his Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination 97 times during his divorce proceedings with Ivana Trump in 1990, the Huffington Post reported Friday. So it should come as little surprise that Trump had kind words for a system that allows men to divorce their wives without going to court: Saudi Arabia’s Shariah law.

The Republican presidential candidate praised the Islamic law, or Shariah, system during a 60-second syndicated daily radio commentary called “Trumped!” that he recorded from 2004 to 2008. In a January 2008 segment, Trump discussed a news story of a Saudi man who had divorced his wife for watching a television show while alone at home because, in Trump’s telling, the husband considered it tantamount to being alone with a strange man.

“Men in Saudi Arabia have the authority to divorce their wives without going to the courts,” Trump said. “I guess that would also mean they don’t need prenuptial agreements. The fact is, no courts, no judges—Saudi Arabia sounds like a very good place to get a divorce.”

BuzzFeed first uncovered the show and its website in March, and the Wall Street Journal published some audio and transcripts in July. According to BuzzFeed, stations that still have an archive of the shows cannot release the audio without Trump’s permission.

When it comes to Trump’s beliefs about women, Trump’s radio vignettes often mirror his own life and his past treatment of and attitudes toward women that are now haunting his campaign.

In recent days, Trump has threatened to begin attacking Hillary Clinton for her husband’s infidelities. But it’s Trump who has extensive experience with divorce—and it’s no wonder he would have preferred the Saudi system. Before finalizing his divorce from his first wife, Ivana, Trump began seeing Marla Maples, who would become his second wife. The divorce required five depositions, during which he repeatedly took the Fifth.

Trump’s remarks about Saudi Arabia were not the only commentary from his radio show with relevance to Trump’s own marriages. Trump often used the show to discuss the appearance of female celebrities. In one segment from 2005, Trump noted that pop star Britney Spears had disappeared from a list of the sexiest women alive compiled by FHM, a men’s magazine. “Angelina Jolie took over the crown from Britney Spears, who didn’t even make the sexy list this year,” Trump said. “She has gone down, there’s no question about it. That’s what a marriage can do for you.”

His belief that marriage hurts a woman’s appearance wasn’t great news for his own marriage to Ivana. As that union unraveled, he made it clear to her that her looks had deteriorated—and Ivana seemed to internalize that critique and blame herself. “She threw herself into my arms sobbing and crying and saying, ‘Donald doesn’t want me anymore,'” former New York Daily News columnist Liz Smith recently recalled. “‘He has told me, he can’t be sexually attracted to a woman who has had children.'” In order to entice her husband, Ivana got a face lift and a breast augmentation, Smith said.

It didn’t work. Trump was seeing a new woman and setting the stage for his future radio commentary about Saudi Arabia.

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Trump Praised Saudi Arabia’s Shariah Law for Making It Easy for Men to Get Divorced

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Alabama’s Chief Justice Still Opposes Same-Sex Marriages. Now He’s Standing Trial.

Mother Jones

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Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore went to court Wednesday morning in Montgomery. But this time he was a defendant, charged with possible ethical violations for defying higher-court rulings with his anti-gay-marriage stance.

In January 2015, after a district court judge ruled that same-sex marriage was legal in Alabama, Moore sent a letter to Gov. Robert Bentley adamantly expressing his belief that the ruling was destructive, and urging the governor to defy the district court ruling and support judges who did not wish to comply.

“The Supreme Court of Alabama has likewise described marriage as ‘a divine institution,’ imposing upon parties ‘higher moral and religious obligations than those imposed by any mere human institution or government,'” he wrote. “The laws of this state have always recognized the Biblical admonition stated by our Lord.”

Moore went further and used his position as chief justice to instruct Alabama probate judges to refuse to issue licenses to same-sex couples via email. “No probate judge shall issue or recognize a marriage license that is inconsistent with Article 1, Section 36.03, of the Alabama Constitution or…30-1-19, Ala. Code 1975,” he wrote.

Moore’s actions led to a complaint filed by the Southern Poverty Law Center, which alerted the state-run Alabama Judicial Inquiry Commission, which in turn launched an investigation. The commission suspended Moore in May. He is now facing six counts of judicial ethics violations.

Moore’s attorney for the proceedings is Mat Staver from the Liberty Counsel, which has been partly funded by one of the conservative billionaire Wilks brothers. He also represented Kim Davis, the Kentucky court clerk who refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. The Liberty Counsel takes on so-called “religious liberty” cases, and the law firm offered its services in the North Carolina fight over restricting the access of transgender people to public restrooms. Staver also represents David Daleiden, who produced heavily edited videos that purport to show Planned Parenthood officials involved in the sale of fetal tissue for profit. (There has been no evidence that Planned Parenthood is guilty of any wrongdoing.)

At the trial, Staver argued that Moore’s email to the probate judges wasn’t an order, but rather a “status update” on the conflict between the federal court ruling and state court rulings.

The Guardian recently speculated that Moore’s efforts are intended to improve his bid for the governorship in 2018. Moore attempted to run in 2006 but ultimately lost the bid for the Republican nomination to incumbent Bob Riley. He also tried to run in 2010 but lost the bid to current Gov. Robert Bentley.

This is not the first time Moore has dug his heels in over an issue he perceived to be in direct conflict with his faith. In 2003, he was suspended from the bench for installing a monument of the Ten Commandments in the Alabama Supreme Court building without informing the eight associate justices and then, when faced with an order from a federal judge, refused to remove the monument. Moore’s fellow justices ultimately had the 2.6-ton monument removed in August 2003.

A decision in the trial is expected within 10 days. If Moore is found guilty, he could face censure or suspension without pay. The most severe outcome would be removal from the bench, which would require a unanimous vote from the nine members of the Court of Judiciary.

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Alabama’s Chief Justice Still Opposes Same-Sex Marriages. Now He’s Standing Trial.

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Democrats Are Freaking Out. But They’ve Been Here Before.

Mother Jones

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The polls are tightening and the freak-out is beginning. With hours to go before the first presidential debate, FiveThirtyEight‘s polls-plus forecast gives former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton just a 53.4 percent chance of winning the election. It’s the closest the race has been since the elections site unveiled its model in June. The “bedwetting cometh,” tweeted New York Times political reporter Jonathan Martin.

But Democrats have been here before. In 2012, President Barack Obama held a modest but consistent lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney heading into the first debate, only to uncharacteristically collapse. Within a few days, the lead had evaporated—according to FiveThirtyEight, Obama’s chances went from 86.1 percent to 61.1 percent, the steepest drop of the campaign—and his supporters started to lose it. No one captured this liberal angst better then Andrew Sullivan, then of the Daily Beast, who had championed Obama in 2008 and joyfully called him “the first gay president” in a Newsweek cover story.

Following Obama’s first debate with Romney, Sullivan was inconsolable:

Maybe if Romney can turn this whole campaign around in 90 minutes, Obama can now do the same. But I doubt it. A sitting president does not recover from being obliterated on substance, style and likability in the first debate and get much of a chance to come back. He has, at a critical moment, deeply depressed his base and his supporters and independents are flocking to Romney in droves.

I’ve never seen a candidate self-destruct for no external reason this late in a campaign before. Gore was better in his first debate—and he threw a solid lead into the trash that night. Even Bush was better in 2004 than Obama last week. Even Reagan’s meandering mess in 1984 was better—and he had approaching Alzheimer’s to blame.

I’m trying to see a silver lining. But when a president self-immolates on live TV, and his opponent shines with lies and smiles, and a record number of people watch, it’s hard to see how a president and his party recover. I’m not giving up. If the lies and propaganda of the last four years work even after Obama had managed to fight back solidly against them to get a clear and solid lead in critical states, then reality-based government is over in this country again. We’re back to Bush-Cheney, but more extreme. We have to find a way to avoid that. Much, much more than Obama’s vanity is at stake.

A week later, after the vice presidential debate had passed, Sullivan was even further gone. “Obama threw it all back in his supporters’ faces, reacting to their enthusiasm and record donations with a performance so execrable, so lazy, so feckless, and so vain it was almost a dare not to vote for him,” he wrote. And then Obama rebounded at the next two debates and won 332 electoral votes.

The race heading into the first debate tonight is closer than it was heading into the first presidential debate in 2012. If the election were held today, there’s a virtually even chance that Donald Trump would win. But Clinton backers anxiously hitting refresh on FiveThirtyEight and consulting their astrologers would do well to reread Sullivan’s lament. It’s fine to panic, but a 7-point polling swing is nothing a few good debates can’t reverse.

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Democrats Are Freaking Out. But They’ve Been Here Before.

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Remember When Ted Cruz Loathed Donald Trump?

Mother Jones

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Today Ted Cruz endorsed Donald Trump, putting the cherry on top of the Texas senator’s complicated relationship with the Republican nominee—a relationship that’s involved a lot of vitriol, name-calling, a sprinkle of admiration, but mostly hate. Thankfully, it’s all captured on Twitter.

It began cordially enough. Cruz even called Trump “terrific.”

But things soon got ugly.

Then Trump got their wives involved…

At which point, Cruz called Trump a “sniveling coward” and vowed to beat him.

Cruz called Trump a Democrat, compared him to Hillary Clinton, and called for him to release his tax returns.

Even when Cruz dropped out of the race, he refused to endorse Trump at the Republican National Convention, urging people to vote their consciences.

Today, Cruz argues that he’s voting for Trump because Hillary Clinton is “manifestly unfit” to be president. “If Clinton wins, we know—with 100% certainty—that she would deliver on her left-wing promises, with devastating results for our country,” he wrote in his announcement.

Seems like only yesterday when Cruz tweeted:

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Remember When Ted Cruz Loathed Donald Trump?

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