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A Simple Chart That Shows We’ve Locked Up Too Many People

by CarenRubensohn Posted on February 16, 2015

Mother Jones

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Correlation is not causation. This has recently become something of an all-purpose comeback from people who want to sound smart without really understanding anything about a particular research result. Still, whether it’s overused or not, it’s a true statement. When two things move up and down together, it’s a hint that one of them might be causing the other, but it’s just a hint. Sometimes correlation implies causation and sometimes it doesn’t.

The inverse statement, however, is different: If there’s no correlation, then there’s no causation. With the rarest of exceptions, this is almost always true. Dara Lind provides an example of this as it relates to crime and mass incarceration.

The chart on the right shows the trend in various states at reducing incarceration. If reducing incarceration produced more crime, you’d expect at least some level of correlation. The dots would line up to look something like the red arrow, with lots of dots in the upper left quadrant.

Obviously we see nothing like that. In fact, we don’t appear to see any significant correlation at all. As Lind says, the scatterplot is just a scatter.

It’s possible that a more sophisticated analysis would tease out a correlation of some kind. You can show almost anything if you really put your mind to it. But if a simple, crude scatterplot doesn’t show even a hint of a correlation, it’s almost a certainty that there’s nothing there. And in this case it demonstrates that we’ve locked up too many people. Mass incarceration hit the limit of its effectiveness in the late-80s and since then has been running dangerously on autopilot. It ruins lives, costs a lot of money, and has gone way beyond the point where it affects the crime rate. It’s well past time to reverse this trend and get to work seriously cutting the prison population.

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A Simple Chart That Shows We’ve Locked Up Too Many People

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Witness the Death of the ’60s in Ken Light’s Era-Defining Photos

by ZenaidaMaccallu Posted on February 14, 2015

Mother Jones

Ken Light’s photos from 1969 to 1974 document the social landscape of America as it frayed at the seams, rife with turmoil. As a young photographer, Light captured the country at this pivotal moment, and his frontline protest photos in Ohio and political images from the 1972 Republican Convention in Miami show the opposite ends of the spectrum.

But the photos that make his new book, American Stories in the Age of Protest, so great are less-familiar ones: the everyday person out waving flags in support of Nixon, the garage band taking to a makeshift stage in support of McGovern, the kids hanging out in West Oakland. It’s photos like these, so common at the time, that gain importance with age. They give contour and meaning to historical projects such as this.

Having already published seven books with the likes of Aperture, Smithsonian, and the University of California Press, Light took matters into his own hands for this project, launching a Kickstarter to fund the book. With other noted, well-published photographers (like Eugene Richards) successfully crowdfunding book projects, it appears to be a win-win for folks like Light: get more people interested and involved in the projects and maintain more control over the finished product.

All photos from American Stories in the Age of Protest: 1969-1974, by Ken Light.

Nixon Rally, Inauguration, 1973

Detention, High School, 1971

Teenager, Columbus, Ohio, 1971

DeWitt Clinton High School, Bronx, 1972

Free Concert, Athens, Ohio, 1969

Vietnam Moratorium, Washington, DC, 1969

McGovern Rally, Southeast Ohio, 1972

Boy Scout, Nixon Inauguration, 1973

Ohio State Penitentiary, Columbus, Ohio

Return of the POWs, Wright Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio, 1973

West Oakland, California, 1974

Nixon Resigns, Oakland, California, 1974

Photographer Ken Light, 1972, Republican National Convention, Miami

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Witness the Death of the ’60s in Ken Light’s Era-Defining Photos

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Russia, Ukraine Reach Cease-Fire Deal—For a Few Days, Anyway

by Bridget60A Posted on February 12, 2015

Mother Jones

After a marathon session, we now have another cease-fire in the Russian war against Ukraine:

The cease-fire is scheduled to begin at midnight on Saturday, but the 13-point compact appeared fragile, with crucial issues like the truce line left unresolved. Over all, there seemed to be no guarantee that the problems that marred the cease-fire agreement reached here in September had been ironed out.

The very fact that it took more than 16 hours of intensive negotiations to reach an agreement, and that the leaders announced the accord in three separate news conferences, seemed to highlight a certain lack of unity.

….“Despite all the difficulties of the negotiating process, we managed to agree on the main things,” Mr. Putin said. Those issues included the withdrawal of heavy weaponry, a promise for constitutional change, and “special status” for the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, he said….The deal calls for heavy artillery to be withdrawn at least about 15 miles from each side, and the biggest missiles even farther. The withdrawal is scheduled to start two days after the cease-fire and to be completed within two weeks.

Needless to say, this doesn’t sound all that promising, especially that business about “special status” for Donetsk and Luhansk. However, the talks produced at least one concrete accomplishment:

The White House has said it will await the outcome of the cease-fire bid before making a decision on whether to send arms to Ukraine’s military — a move strongly opposed by Moscow.

Ukraine also got something out of the deal: the IMF announced a $17.5 billion loan to Ukraine, which will keep them from going bankrupt. The Guardian notes that the talks nearly broke down before Thursday’s announcement:

The negotiations appeared extremely tense and highly combustible with simmering hostility between Putin on the one hand and Merkel and Poroshenko on the other. At various points during the night, the talks looked close to collapse, with Poroshenko leaving the negotiating table and talking of being confronted with “unacceptable conditions”.

Overall, it looks to me like Russia got more out of this deal than either Ukraine or Europe. A lot depends on whether Russia really withdraws its heavy artillery and keeps it withdrawn. Like everyone else, I have my doubts. This seems more like a chance for Russia to regroup and set conditions on the ground than it does a real agreement. We’ll see.

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Russia, Ukraine Reach Cease-Fire Deal—For a Few Days, Anyway

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By Age 40, Your Income Is Probably as Good as It’s Going to Get

by BrentP59cdnn Posted on February 11, 2015

Mother Jones

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By age 40 you’re done. That’s the conclusion of a report from the New York Fed that looks at lifetime earnings from age 25 through retirement. The charts on the right tell the story.

The top chart shows average earnings by age. It’s a little hard to immediately see how dramatic the income peak is since the y-axis shows the log of earnings, but if you do the arithmetic it demonstrates that, on average, by age 40 you’re within about $1,000 of your peak earnings. You’ll get inflation adjustments after that, but for the bulk of us, that’s it. Real earnings pretty much plateau after age 40.

The bottom chart illustrates this in a different way. The yellow rectangle shows earnings growth for the bottom 80 percent. The blue line is for ages 25-35, and there’s a fair amount of earnings growth except at the very bottom. The red line is for ages 35-45, and it’s pretty close to zero. There’s virtually no earnings growth for anyone. And the green line is for ages 45-55. It’s actually negative. If you put the latter two age groups together, the report concludes that “average earnings growth from ages 35 to 55 is zero.”

Now, outside the yellow box we have the top 20 percent: the well off and the rich. Those folks show a lot of earnings growth when they’re young, but they also show fairly healthy growth between ages 35-45.

And the top 1 percent? That’s on the very far right, and as you can see, they show earnings growth at every age level.

None of this will come as much of a surprise to anyone, but I thought it was interesting to see it in black and white, so to speak. If you’re planning to make your fortune, you’d better do it by age 40. With only a few exceptions—and those exceptions are mostly for people already making a lot of money—you’re done by then. Your income just isn’t likely to ever go up much after that.

(Via Wonkblog’s Danielle Paquette.)

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By Age 40, Your Income Is Probably as Good as It’s Going to Get

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Republicans Need to Speak Up About Alabama Gay Marriage Ruling

by FredericFisken Posted on February 11, 2015

Mother Jones

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Steve Benen has a question for Republican presidential candidates:

Last week, after Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) made controversial comments about vaccines, almost immediately political leaders in both parties were asked to explain their own position on vaccinations. Within a day or two, every likely presidential candidate was on record, endorsing an anti-disease position.

It’d be nice if we saw similar scrutiny today about developments in Alabama. There are all kinds of political figures poised to launch presidential campaigns, and last week they told us what they think about vaccines. Maybe this week they can tell us whether they’re comfortable with Alabama counties ignoring the federal courts?

In case you missed it—not likely, but I guess you never know—earlier this week a federal judge struck down Alabama’s law banning same-sex marriage. Alabama’s chief justice then ordered local judges to ignore the federal ruling and refuse to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. A hearing to resolve the issue in federal court is scheduled for Thursday.

But tomorrow’s hearing isn’t really at issue. A federal court has made a ruling, and the Supreme Court has already declined to issue a stay. The court’s decision is now good law. So the question is: should local judges follow the law, or should they continue to oppose same-sex marriage and refuse to issue licenses?

Like Benen, I’d sure like to hear what everyone has to say about this. The tap dancing would be entertaining. Chris Christie would probably pull his usual cowardly schtick and simply refuse to take a position. Jeb Bush might insist that it’s strictly a matter for Alabama and it would be improper for him to take a position. Mike Huckabee would probably counsel civil disobedience. And Scott Walker? Good question. I don’t know what he’d say. But I’d like to find out.

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Republicans Need to Speak Up About Alabama Gay Marriage Ruling

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Jon Stewart Picked a Good Time to Retire From the Daily Show

by KrystynaK18 Posted on February 11, 2015

Mother Jones

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I guess I’m curious about something. How many of you think Jon Stewart made the right decision stepping down from the Daily Show? I’m reluctant to say this because I’ve long been such a pretty devoted follower, but the truth is that Marian and I gradually stopped watching him last year. It wasn’t any single thing, or any big change in what he did. It was just a growing sense that we weren’t really laughing as much as we used to. There were still good bits, and the correspondents still had their moments, but they were fewer and farther between than in the past.

Are there others who feel the same way? I don’t want to turn this thread into a pile-on, especially if you happen to be someone who’s never liked Stewart’s brand of comedy. I’ve always been a big fan. But over the past year he seems to have lost a lot of his edge. Or is it just me?

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Jon Stewart Picked a Good Time to Retire From the Daily Show

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Quote of the Day: Who Would Be Dumb Enough to Trust Republicans With the Economy Yet Again?

by StellaAnderson Posted on February 9, 2015

Mother Jones

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From Kevin Hassett, a conservative economist who’s advised both John McCain and Mitt Romney, explaining what Hillary Clinton’s economic message should be in the 2016 presidential campaign:

The Republicans gave us a crappy economy twice, and we fixed it twice. Why would you ever trust them again?

Not bad, Kevin! Thanks. This comes via Ed Kilgore, who’s similarly impressed: “Wow, no kidding. Hillary Clinton should say that. It would almost fit on a bumper sticker, and with a few photos would make killer text for a 30-second ad.”

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Quote of the Day: Who Would Be Dumb Enough to Trust Republicans With the Economy Yet Again?

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Jason Chaffetz Opens Up Dumbest Investigation of Obama Yet

by QWEJamalrfzn Posted on February 9, 2015

Mother Jones

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I understand why net neutrality is a big deal for internet service providers, who oppose any new rules that restrict what they can do and how much they can charge. Ditto for content companies like Google, who support net neutrality because they don’t want to be extorted by ISPs for access to high-speed pipes. Ditto again for activists who believe internet access should be on a level playing field for everyone.

But it’s also become a bête noire of the tea party crowd, and it’s a lot less clear to me why these folks care. But maybe I’m overthinking it. Perhaps they oppose net neutrality simply because President Obama supports it. Here’s the latest evidence on this score:

Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, has written to FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler asking for all documents related to communications and meetings involving White House and agency officials concerning the issue….Republicans have charged that Obama unduly influenced Wheeler’s proposal. Senate Commerce Committee Chairman John Thune (R-S.D.) said Wheeler “succumbed to the bully tactics of political activists and the president himself.”

….Chaffetz said in a letter dated Friday that he was investigating reports indicating “views expressed by the White House potentially had an improper influence” on development of Wheeler’s proposal. He cited a Wall Street Journal article last week that reported that two White House aides led a “secretive effort” to build support from outside groups for tough net-neutrality regulations.

Chaffetz must really be desperate. Does he seriously think that the president of the United States isn’t allowed to try to mobilize outside support for his policy proposals? Or even that the White House isn’t allowed to lobby FCC commissioners? That’s just crackers.

But Chaffetz is a certified up-and-comer in the Republican ranks, and I guess that means he has to make sure his tea party bona fides never get rusty from disuse. This time, though, he’s really digging through the bottom of the barrel. Unless he wants to join up with the crazytown contingent for good—something he’s managed to avoid so far—he should think twice about dumb theatrics like this. He’s better off when he keeps at least one foot planted in realityville.

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Jason Chaffetz Opens Up Dumbest Investigation of Obama Yet

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A Baton Rouge ER Is Closing Because Bobby Jindal Won’t Accept Medicaid Expansion

by JaiFitzGibbon Posted on February 9, 2015

Mother Jones

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Louisiana’s capital city is losing one of its emergency rooms:

The Baton Rouge General Medical Center-Mid City will close its emergency room within the next 60 days, a victim of continuing red ink and the Jindal administration withdrawing the financial support that kept it open.

….The General’s Mid City campus suffered a financial hit as a result of the April 2013 closure of the LSU Earl K. Long Medical Center….More and more poor and uninsured patients from the low-income neighborhoods of north Baton Rouge ended up at the Mid City hospital, which was the next-closest facility.

Mid City hospital reported losses of $1 million a month as more and more patients who could not pay arrived. Losses jumped from $6 million to $8 million annually from 2009 to 2012, then up to $12.5 million in 2013, according to Baton Rouge General. Last year, the facility lost $23.8 million.

The nearest ER for residents who are currently served by Mid-City is now 30 minutes further away, and it’s a certainty that people are going to die because of this. But what’s the real story behind this closure? Shouldn’t the expansion of Medicaid be offsetting the increased losses on uninsured patients?

You bet it should. And it would, if Bobby Jindal were willing to accept Obamacare’s offer of virtually free Medicaid expansion. But he’s not, and that means Baton Rouge is losing one of its central emergency rooms and more people will die who otherwise could have been saved. That’s some nice work, Bobby. Michael Hiltzik has more details here.

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A Baton Rouge ER Is Closing Because Bobby Jindal Won’t Accept Medicaid Expansion

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Today’s Intriguing News About New Contraception Options

by rzana79 Posted on February 7, 2015

Mother Jones

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Megan Thielking tells me something I didn’t know today:

With some financial help from the Gates Foundation, Massachusetts drug manufacturer MicroCHIPS Biotech is developing an implantable contraceptive for women. Contraceptive implants currently on the market are thin plastic devices that are put under the skin on the upper arm, where they release hormones for up to three years. If a woman decides she wants to have a baby, the implant needs to be removed.

But the MicroCHIPS implant will last up to 16 years, and women will be able to turn it off via remote control if they’re trying to get pregnant. Trials in humans are expected to start next year, but the same microchip technology has been tested successfully in women with osteoporosis. MicroCHIPS Biotech says the implant could reasonably be on the market by 2018.

There are also some new options for male contraception that look promising. Interesting stuff.

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Today’s Intriguing News About New Contraception Options

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