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Four Commercial Scale Cellulosic Ethanol Biorefineries to Enter Production This Year

by Posted on April 29, 2014

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Four Commercial Scale Cellulosic Ethanol Biorefineries to Enter Production This Year

Posted 29 April 2014 in

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During an event at the National Press Club today, representatives of DuPont, POET-DSM, Abengoa Bioenergy and Quad County Corn detailed their progress toward launching commercial scale production of cellulosic ethanol this year, but also warned that the continued growth of this industry is at significant risk because of the U.S. EPA’s proposal to gut the renewable fuel standard and increase the amount of oil in gasoline.

“Cellulosic ethanol is no longer the fuel of the future, it’s a fuel that will be produced at commercial scale this year – a fuel that will be increasingly important to meeting our transportation needs unless the EPA or Congress gives in to the demands of the oil industry,” said Aaron J. Whitesel, Senior Manager for Government Affairs at DuPont.

Listen to Audio of the National Press Club Event:

“Producing biofuels from crop residue is an enormous opportunity for U.S. consumers to have access to even more clean, renewable ethanol,” said POET Vice President of Corporate Affairs Doug Berven. “In addition, this process provides farmers with a new revenue crop from land that is already in production. If the EPA allows this industry access to the fuel market, there will be enormous benefits for America’s economy, environment and national security.”

“The innovative process we are pioneering in Galva, Iowa can be a model for the rest of the country as we build a whole new cellulosic ethanol industry in America,” said DelayneJohnson, CEO of Quad County Corn Processors. “Gutting the Renewable Fuel Standard, however, could derail the momentum we have achieved and create uncertainty that will dramatically slow the adoption of this important technology.”

View the Presentation Shown at the National Press Club Event:

Nat’l Press Club | Cellulosic Ethanol | 2014.04.29

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“Producing fuel from corn stalks or agricultural waste means a dramatic reduction in carbon dioxide and other harmful pollutants in traditional gasoline, and it opens up an almost limitless source of potential feedstock for clean, renewable fuel,” said Chris Standlee, Executive Vice President for Global Affairs of Abengoa Bioenergy. “The EPA’s proposal to lower the amount of renewable fuel in gasoline, however, will make it far harder for companies to invest in the next phases of cellulosic ethanol production and leave us more dependent on imported oil.”

DuPont — Nevada Site Cellulosic Ethanol Facility

Location: Nevada, Iowa
Operational Date: Q4 2014
Total investment: Over $200 million
Feedstock: Corn Stover
Capacity: 30 million gallons /year

DuPont is investing over $200 million to construct a commercial scale cellulosic biorefineryin Nevada, Iowa, that will be fueled by agricultural residue harvested from a 30 mile radius around the facility. It will be one of the first and largest advancedbiorefineries in the world, helping to secure U.S. leadership in this innovative new technology while spurring additional private investment in the industry.

To supply this 30 million gallon per year facility, DuPont is also building an entirely new, fully sustainable supply chain for corn stover, the stalks and leaves left over after corn harvest. DuPont’s stover harvest program is a highly collaborative endeavor, involving experts in the field of agronomy from DuPont’s Pioneer division, Iowa State University and the USDA’s Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) working in conjunction with custom harvest equipment manufacturers and hundreds of local farmers.

DuPont remains committed to the sector, but has indicated that the uncertainty created by the EPA’s proposed changes in the Renewable Fuel Standard – or any future Congressional action to undermine the RFS – has already slowed investor interest here in the US and worries that regulatory uncertainty will push future investment overseas.

Abengoa — Bioenergy Hugoton Cellulosic Ethanol Facility

Location: Hugoton, Kansas
Operational Date: Q2 2014
Total investment: $500 million
Feedstock: Corn stover, wheat straw, milo stubble and prairie grasses
Capacity: 25 million gallons/year plus 21 Megawatts of renewable electricity

Abengoa’s Hugoton plant has the capacity to convert 300,000 dry tons of agricultural residues such as corn stover and wheat straw into 25 million gallons of ethanol and 21 Megawatts of renewable electricity. The biomass boiler and electric generation system successfully commenced operation and transferred power to the grid in December of 2013, and the ethanol portion of the facility is beginning the commissioning process now, with first production expected in May or June 2014. Abengoa’s same proprietary technology is also being used to produce cellulosic ethanol from municipal solid waste at a pilot plant in Spain which started operations in July 2013.

Abengoa intends to offer licenses and contracts to interested parties covering the full range of construction and operation of cellulosic ethanol facilities, utilizing Abengoa’s unique capabilities and expertise in all aspects of this new industry. Abengoa can provide every aspect from process design and engineering to EPC construction, and from supply of proprietary enzymes and specialized harvest techniques to operations and marketing of the completed products from the facility.

The market certainty originally provided by the RFS has resulted in commercial scale deployment of the cellulosic ethanol industry that will be experienced this year. Abengoa is hopeful that the EPA avoids any regulatory actions that will unnecessarily dampen the market enthusiasm and job creation that should follow this pivotal year of commercialization.

POET-DSM Project Liberty

Location: Emmetsburg, Iowa
Operational Date: June 2014
Total investment: $250 million
Feedstock: Corn cobs, leaves, husk and stalks
Capacity: 25 million gallons/year

POET-DSM’s Advanced Biofuels’ Project LIBERTY is a $250 million cellulosic bioethanol plant that will use corn cobs, leaves, husk and some stalk to produce 25 million gallons of ethanol per year at full operation. The plant, which is scheduled to be completed in the second quarter of 2014, is sited next to a grain ethanol plant – POET Biorefining – Emmetsburg – in order to take advantage of synergies in staff, infrastructure and experience. It will draw its feedstock from a 30-40-mile radius and use approximately 25% of the available crop residue.

At the event, Berven announced that POET-DSM has begun aggressively marketing their process and technology package for licensing by other ethanol producers in the U.S. and around the world.

Quad County Corn Adding Cellulosic Ethanol, or ACE

Location: Galva, Iowa
Operational Date: June 2014
Total investment: $9 Million
Feedstock: Corn Kernel Fiber
Phase I Capacity: 2 million gallons/year (Cellulose)
Phase II Capacity: 1.75 million gallons/year (Hemi-Cellulose)
Total Capacity: 3.75 million gallons/year

Quad County Corn Processors (QCCP) is in the final stages of construction of its Adding Cellulosic Ethanol (ACE) bolt on facility in Galva, Iowa. Construction is anticipated to be complete in May 2014 with production beginning in June 2014.

ACE is a bolt on technology that converts corn kernel fiber into cellulosic ethanol. The process also increases an ethanol processing facilities distillers oil yield by 250% and creates a higher protein feed product for the livestock industry.

QCCP recently announced that Syngenta has an exclusive license to market the ACE technology to ethanol plants in the United States and Canada. The existing dry grind ethanol facilities in the United States have the potential to create over 1.5 billion gallons of cellulosic ethanol and 2 billion gallons of biodiesel from corn by adopting the ACE technology.

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Four Commercial Scale Cellulosic Ethanol Biorefineries to Enter Production This Year

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Report Shows Renewable Fuels Support 852,000 Jobs and $46 Billion in Wages for America’s Workers

by Posted on April 24, 2014

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Report Shows Renewable Fuels Support 852,000 Jobs and $46 Billion in Wages for America’s Workers

Posted 24 April 2014 in

National

WASHINGTON, DC — The Fuels America coalition today released an economic impact study by John Dunham & Associates showing the far-reaching benefits of renewable fuels for America’s workers and the U.S. economy – including supporting more than 850,000 American jobs.

Renewable fuels now represent nearly 10% of America’s fuel supply and have helped reduce U.S. reliance on foreign oil to the lowest level in years. The analysis takes into account the entire supply chain for renewable fuels and quantifies the impact to the U.S. economy, including:

Driving $184.5 billion of economic output
Supporting 852,056 jobs and $46.2 billion in wages
Generating $14.5 billion in tax revenue each year

The full analysis is publicly available on the Fuels America website, including localized reports for every state and every congressional district in the country .

The report tells the story of an innovative, advanced renewable fuels and biofuels industry that is producing growing benefits for America’s economy. “The data are in: The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is driving billions of dollars of economic activity across America,” the report concludes. “This is the result of years of investment by the biofuel sector to bring clean, low carbon renewable fuels to market.”

Embraced by both Democrats and Republicans and signed into law by President Bush – but bitterly opposed by the oil industry – the RFS calls for the use of American-grown renewable fuels in our transportation fuel supply. The oil industry is urging the U.S. EPA and/or Congress to repeal or weaken the RFS so that renewable fuels do not further reduce oil industry market share.

Fuels America stands with the thousands of farm families, workers, small business owners, environmental advocates, veterans and military families who submitted comments to the U.S. EPA urging the agency to protect the Renewable Fuel Standard and support the development of clean, homegrown American fuels.

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Report Shows Renewable Fuels Support 852,000 Jobs and $46 Billion in Wages for America’s Workers

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NEW STUDY: 72 Percent of Fox News Climate Segments Are Misleading

by HassanJDVefvwac Posted on April 7, 2014

Mother Jones

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According to a Pew study released last year, 38 percent of US adults watch cable news. So if you want to know why so many Americans deny or doubt the established science of climate change, the content they’re receiving on cable news may well point the way.

According to a new study by the Union of Concerned Scientists, misinformation about climate science on cable news channels is pretty common. The study found that last year, 30 percent of CNN’s climate-related segments were misleading, compared with 72 percent for Fox News and just 8 percent for MSNBC. The study methodology was quite strict: segments that contained “any inaccurate or misleading representations of climate science” were classified as misleading.

By far the worst performer was Fox (this is hardly the first study to associate this channel with sowing reams of doubt about climate change). Notably, the UCS report found that “more than half” of the channel’s misleading content was due to The Five, a program where the hosts regularly argue against climate science. For instance, Greg Gutfeld, one of the show’s regular co-hosts, charged on September 30 that “experts pondered hiding the news that the earth hadn’t…warmed in 15 years, despite an increase in emissions. They concluded that the missing heat was trapped in the ocean. It’s like blaming gas on the dog if the ocean was your dog.” (To understand what is actually going on with the alleged global warming “pause,” and why the deep oceans may well explain part of the story, click here.)

You can watch Gutfeld’s comments here:

As Gutfeld’s statement suggests, one of the standard Fox practices was sowing doubt about scientists themselves. On February 13, 2013, for instance, Sean Hannity commented, “I don’t believe that this global warming nonsense is real,” and then went on to mention “phony emails” from climate scientists. (If you want to know what was actually up with those emails, read here.)

Fox’s two most accurate programs with respect to climate science were The O’Reilly Factor and Special Report with Bret Baier. As the UCS study put it, “O’Reilly and Baier’s programs, although also airing a number of segments containing inaccurate statements about climate science, were responsible for nearly all of the network’s accurate coverage.”

In contrast to Fox, the study found that MSNBC was overwhelmingly accurate in its coverage, and also devoted a great deal of attention to climate change. That was particularly the case for programs hosted by Chris Hayes, whose All In With Chris Hayes featured 30 segments about climate change. When MSNBC did err, the study found, it was because hosts or guests “overstated the effects of climate change, particularly the link between climate change and specific types of extreme weather, such as tornadoes.”

CNN provides the most interesting case in the analysis. In general, the network was usually accurate; when it erred, however, it tended to be because climate-denying guests had appeared in “debates” the network hosted over the reality of climate change. Take a January 23 debate on Out Front with Erin Burnett, for instance, in which Erick Erickson of RedState (then a CNN contributor) claimed that “the 1950s had more extreme weather than now.”

Overall, the UCS report calculated that if CNN had not hosted misleading science debates, it would have improved its accuracy rating to 86 percent. “The biggest step that CNN could take to increase the accuracy of the information it provides to its viewers,” the study concluded, “is to stop hosting debates about established climate science and instead host debates and discussions about whether and how to respond to climate change through climate policy.”

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NEW STUDY: 72 Percent of Fox News Climate Segments Are Misleading

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Former Queens Fort Revamped for Work on Ecology

by Myrna Posted on March 27, 2014

Fort Totten Park has a laboratory and sleeping quarters for visiting scientists who are happy to get their fingernails dirty in urban soil. Excerpt from:  Former Queens Fort Revamped for Work on Ecology ; ;Related ArticlesNew Mexico Reaps Pecan Bounty as Other States StruggleMost Chinese Cities Fail Pollution Standard, China SaysDanish Zoo Reviled in the Death of a Giraffe Kills 4 Lions ;

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Former Queens Fort Revamped for Work on Ecology

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Opposition to Obamacare Appears To Be Shrinking as Problems Get Resolved

by duhhumavug Posted on March 26, 2014

Mother Jones

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The latest Kaiser Health Tracking Poll is out, and Greg Sargent summarizes the highlights: “Views of the ACA remain unfavorable, but the gap is narrowing…..Support for repeal continues to shrink….Crucially, a majority, 53 percent, say they are tired about hearing about the law and want to move on to other issues….Most of the ACA’s individual provisions are wildly popular.”

There’s one other interesting note from the latest poll, along with one frustrating note. First the interesting note. On Monday I mentioned that views of Obamacare had become dramatically less favorable among the uninsured. Apparently that was short-lived. Here’s the latest:

This suggests that the main reason for the blip was Obamacare’s well-publicized rollout problems. Once those got addressed, and people were able to sign up without too much hassle, opinions turned back around.

And now for the frustrating note. I’ve mentioned several times before that a simple approval/disapproval question about Obamacare is misleading. The problem is that there’s a fair chunk of the population that disapproves of Obamacare not because it’s a government takeover of health care, but because it doesn’t go far enough. These are people who are perfectly happy with the idea of national healthcare, but want Obamacare to do more. This is obviously not part of the standard conservative critique that we automatically think of whenever we hear about “disapproval” of Obamacare.

This month, Kaiser asked about this in more detail than before. Among those who disapprove, they asked why they disapproved. Here’s what they got:

So close! The bottom two answers are clearly right-wing concerns. But the first one is mixed. “Cost concerns” is split between people who think the subsidies are too low (left-wing criticism) and those who think it’s a budget buster (right-wing criticism). Those are very different things. This was a great opportunity to really get a read on how much right-wing opposition there really is to Obamacare, but it doesn’t quite do it. Maybe next time.

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Opposition to Obamacare Appears To Be Shrinking as Problems Get Resolved

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Dave Camp’s Tax Reform Plan May Be DOA, But It Should Be Fun Anyway

by MonserrateDLZ Posted on February 26, 2014

Mother Jones

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Speaking of Dave Camp’s tax reform plan, it’s out now. It may be DOA, but it’s out. In a nutshell, it reduces rates, reduces the number of tax brackets, and increases both the standard deduction and the child tax credit. As a result, many fewer people would have to file 1040 long forms. To make up for this, Camp proposes limiting or eliminating a raft of deductions and tax breaks. Here’s my favorite:

Preventing makers of violent video games from qualifying for the R&D tax credit.

Boo-yah! That’s the way to play culture war politics in a boring tax reform proposal. There are also references to “Wall Street tycoons”—not a phrase you normally hear from a Republican—and a proposal to end tax breaks that allow university presidents to live in mansions tax free. Populism!

Joking aside, I’ll give Camp credit for going after a long laundry list of very specific deductions. On the other hand, he also appears to finance his plan partly through an effective cut in the Earned Income Tax Credit. I can’t say that for sure without more details, but it sure looks that way on first inspection. The plan also “consolidates” higher education tax breaks, which might be a good idea, though it’s hard to tell without more details. If it’s just an excuse to reduce financial aid, it’s not so good.

There’s also a proposal for a small change to the mortgage interest deduction—a brave act even if it’s fairly paltry—and a proposal to partially end the carried interest loophole. Camp also proposes a 0.035 percent tax on big banks, which is probably a good idea. Camp repeals the AMT, which is a great idea, and funds it by eliminating the tax deduction for state and local taxes. This is a longtime favorite of conservatives because, as Camp says, “This deduction redistributes wealth to big-government, high-tax states from small-government, low-tax states.” In other words, it benefits blue states more than red states, so why not get rid of it?

He also wants to get rid of the NFL’s tax exemption. Sounds good to me.

Camp’s plan is long and includes upwards of a hundred specific tax deductions that he wants to reform or eliminate. There are enough caveats that it’s hard to tell exactly how far his proposals go, but again, kudos to him for making specific proposals at all. His plan may be DOA precisely because he was so specific, but kudos anyway. I’ll be interested in following the reaction as everyone figures out just whose ox would be gored by his various bullet points. Should be fun.

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Dave Camp’s Tax Reform Plan May Be DOA, But It Should Be Fun Anyway

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A Big Oil foe runs for Congress — as a Republican

by ElouiseR69 Posted on February 6, 2014

A Big Oil foe runs for Congress — as a Republican

By

@IowansForShaw

At first blush, Monte Shaw, a newly announced GOP candidate for Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, sounds like any other conservative. He denounces talk of new taxes, pledges to defend the Constitution, and speaks reverently of his “hero” Ronald Reagan. “Conservatives must hold this seat if we’re to have any hope at all of stopping the leftward plunge of our federal government,” Shaw said this week in announcing that he would run to replace Rep. Tom Latham (R), who is not seeking reelection.

Yeah, yeah, yada yada. But get this: “Big Oil,” as Shaw calls the industry that controls so many House Republicans (and some Democrats), is his professional enemy. Supporting renewables is currently his full-time job. He’s the executive director of the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association.

A Big Oil opponent running on a Republican ticket? Whaaa?

The catch is that Shaw’s association doesn’t champion solar panels or wind turbines. It promotes biofuels derived from the region’s cornfields.

The biofuel and oil industries are locking horns over how much ethanol the federal government should require to be blended into gasoline under its Renewable Fuel Standard program. Here’s what Shaw had to say about the issue in an op-ed published in The Hill last year:

Big Oil is back to its old tricks, this time trying to convince Congress and the Environmental Protection Agency that the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) cannot work and should be eliminated.

To combat Big Oil’s monopoly on transportation fuels, the RFS requires refiners to gradually increase the amount of renewable fuels available to consumers over time. However, refiners now say it cannot be done. Once again, they are wrong.

We call this the Big Oil Bluff.

While it’s refreshing to hear a GOP candidate calling out “Big Oil” on its bullshit, it’s not so refreshing that he’s pimping for the ethanol industry — which has been wrecking havoc on the environment and the climate as corn fields expand into natural areas to help satisfy our thirst for gasoline.

But it could still be fun to watch a Republican run against the oil industry.


Source
Monte Shaw kicks off bid for Congress, says conservatives must hold seat, The Des Moines Register

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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A Big Oil foe runs for Congress — as a Republican

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Will Obama do the right thing on ozone and smog this time around?

by AudreaEQQE Posted on February 6, 2014

Will Obama do the right thing on ozone and smog this time around?

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Barack Obama has been just as bad as George W. Bush when it comes to curbing ground-level ozone pollution. But soon he’ll have another chance to get ozone regulations right.

Ozone rocks when it’s up in the stratosphere, protecting us from UV rays and skin cancer. But when it’s at ground level, where it’s the main component of smog, it can cause respiratory infections, asthma, and other ailments. Ground-level ozone pollution is produced when sunlight triggers reactions involving the chemicals that are spewed out of factories and tailpipes. Naturally, oil companies and other polluting industries don’t want to be required to rein in this pollution.

In 2008, the last year of the Bush administration, the EPA finalized new rules on ground-level ozone, allowing 75 parts per billion in the air. Clean air advocates and enviros had called for a lower limit of 60 ppb, saying it was needed to protect public health. In 2011, the EPA was poised to tighten the standard, but the Obama White House cravenly quashed the effort, fearing backlash from industry the year before a presidential election. At the time, John Walke of the Natural Resources Defense Council called this “the most outrageous environmental offense of the Obama administration.”

Under the requirements of the Clean Air Act, the EPA was supposed to revise its ozone rules in 2013, but it missed the deadline. Now it’s being sued by environmental and health groups for its tardiness.

As EPA slowly moves toward crafting new ozone rules, its experts are taking another look at the science. And — surprise, surprise — those experts have found that the current Bush-era rules could be exposing Americans to dangerously high levels of ozone pollution.

From E&E Publishing:

In a draft document released [Monday], U.S. EPA staff say that based on available scientific evidence, the agency should consider tightening its current ozone standard to a level as low as 60 parts per billion. …

In a separate health and risk exposure assessment, agency staff says that setting a standard in the 60-70 ppb range would result in reduced child exposure, lower hospitalization and mortality rates, and reduced risk of lower lung function.

The documents are meant to inform agency scientists and policymakers ahead of a meeting of the Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee at the end of March. Following that meeting, the agency is expected to release a proposal, although the administration has not specified a timeline.

As Bloomberg BNA reports reports, “A stricter ozone standard would lead to new requirements for emissions controls on sources that emit nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds, which contribute to ozone formation, including industrial facilities, power plants and vehicles.”

Now that he doesn’t have to worry about reelection, will Obama endorse stronger ozone rules? We’ll be watching.


Source
EPA Draft Policy Document Says Science Justifies Stricter Ozone Air Quality Standard, Bloomberg BNA
EPA draft eyes tightening ozone standard to 60 ppb, E&E Publishing

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Will Obama do the right thing on ozone and smog this time around?

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United Auto Workers submits comment in support of the Renewable Fuel Standard

by Posted on January 28, 2014

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United Auto Workers submits comment in support of the Renewable Fuel Standard

Posted 28 January 2014 in

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Joining thousands of consumers, farmers and environmental advocates, UAW has submitted its comment to the EPA, urging the agency to reconsider its planned cuts to renewable fuel in 2014. Speaking on behalf of its more than 300,000 members, the union warned that “this proposed rule could not only raise prices at the pump and deter investment in biofuels and biofuel infrastructure, but hurt rural economies and jeopardize valuable American manufacturing jobs.”

From their comment:

Once-struggling rural American communities have grown and become economically independent because of the success of the biofuel industry. However, under this proposed rule, it is predicted that gas prices could increase 5.7 cents a gallon, affecting all workers and their families. Corn prices are expected to drop $0.19 per bushel, below the cost of production, leading to idle ethanol production and significant job loss in the agricultural implement sector.

Our manufacturing sector is viable and strong, particularly in the biofuels and renewable fuels industry. A significant reduction in renewable volume obligations under this proposed rule could destabilize the renewable fuel industry and send the wrong message to investors. As an ardent proponent of the Administration’s light-duty fuel efficiency standards, we at the UAW support growth in the next generation biofuels. Continuing to build our biofuels industry will keep America globally competitive, create even more jobs, improve the environment, and boost economic demand.

We respectfully request that the EPA revise this proposal, ensuring that it is consistent with targets outlined in the 2007 law. Without a revised proposal, the EPA’s proposed rule would impose significant burdens and losses on rural American workers and the economies of their communities.

Click here to read the UAW’s full comment.

Today is the last day to submit comments to the EPA on the Renewable Fuel Standard. Stand with us to protect the only policy that’s helping us end our addiction to oil!

 

 

 

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United Auto Workers submits comment in support of the Renewable Fuel Standard

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Is Our Robot Future Really All That Speculative Anymore?

by NanceeDundalli Posted on January 23, 2014

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James Pethokoukis points us to a new working paper about economic growth released by the San Francisco Fed this month. Here’s a piece:

Even more speculatively, artificial intelligence and machine learning could allow computers and robots to increasingly replace labor in the production function for goods….In standard growth models, it is quite easy to show that this can lead to a rising capital share — which we intriguingly already see in many countries since around 1980 (Karabarbounis and Neiman, 2013) — and to rising growth rates. In the limit, if capital can replace labor entirely, growth rates could explode, with incomes becoming inï¬&#129;nite in ï¬&#129;nite time.

Pethokoukis comments:

The Fed paper is particularly amazing when you consider that when outgoing Fed chairman Ben Bernanke mentioned “robotics” in a commencement address last spring, he was the first US central-bank boss to use the word in a speech since Alan Greenspan in 2000. Expect more mentions from Janet Yellen.

Technological progress in AI and robotics — even short of the singularity — raises huge questions about the future of work, mobility, and inequality….What do we make of all those long-range economic and fiscal forecasts from folks at the Fed, Congressional Budget Office, and other expert groups? How do we plan for a future that may be just as revolutionary, if not more so, as the Industrial Revolution?

My long-form take on this is here. The thing that gets me is that so many people continue to think of this as wild speculation. I don’t mean the infinite incomes stuff, which is obviously hyperbole since we’ll always need more than just capital to make the economy run. I just mean the general idea that robots and AI are pretty obviously going to have a huge economic impact in the medium term future. This is something that seems so obvious to me that I’m a little puzzled that there’s anyone left who still doesn’t see it. Nonetheless, an awful lot of people still think of this as science fiction. I put the doubters into four rough buckets:

  1. Moore’s Law is going to to break down sometime very soon, and we’ll never get the raw computing power we need for true AI.
  2. There is something mysterious about the human brain that we will never be able to emulate with silicon and software. Maybe something, um, quantum.
  3. Meh. We’ve been hearing about AI forever. It’s never happened before, it’s not going to happen this time either.
  4. La la la la la.

#1 is at least plausible. I think we’re too far along for it to be taken very seriously anymore, but you never know. #2 is basically New Age nonsense dressed up as physics. #3 is understandable, but lazy. We heard about going to the moon for a long time too, but it didn’t happen until the technology curve caught up. We’re at the same point with AI. #4 is the group of people who kinda sorta accept that AI is coming, but for various reasons simply don’t want to grapple with what this means. Conservatives don’t like the idea that it almost inevitably will require a much more redistributive society. Liberals don’t like the idea that it might make a lot of standard lefty social programs obsolete.

As a liberal believer, I’ll put myself in the latter camp. I’m not willing to give up on the standard liberal social program because (a) I might be wrong about AI, (b) if I’m not, we’re still going to need variations on these programs, and (c) we still have to deal with the transition period anyway. I assume conservative believers might feel roughly the same way.

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Is Our Robot Future Really All That Speculative Anymore?

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