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Statistics 101 – David Borman

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Statistics 101

From Data Analysis and Predictive Modeling to Measuring Distribution and Determining Probability, Your Essential Guide to Statistics

David Borman

Genre: Mathematics

Price: $10.99

Publish Date: December 18, 2018

Publisher: Adams Media

Seller: SIMON AND SCHUSTER DIGITAL SALES INC


A comprehensive guide to statistics—with information on collecting, measuring, analyzing, and presenting statistical data—continuing the popular 101 series. Data is everywhere. In the age of the internet and social media, we’re responsible for consuming, evaluating, and analyzing data on a daily basis. From understanding the percentage probability that it will rain later today, to evaluating your risk of a health problem, or the fluctuations in the stock market, statistics impact our lives in a variety of ways, and are vital to a variety of careers and fields of practice. Unfortunately, most statistics text books just make us want to take a snooze, but with Statistics 101 , you’ll learn the basics of statistics in a way that is both easy-to-understand and apply. From learning the theory of probability and different kinds of distribution concepts, to identifying data patterns and graphing and presenting precise findings, this essential guide can help turn statistical math from scary and complicated, to easy and fun. Whether you are a student looking to supplement your learning, a worker hoping to better understand how statistics works for your job, or a lifelong learner looking to improve your grasp of the world, Statistics 101 has you covered.

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Statistics 101 – David Borman

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Solar Cataclysm – Lawrence E. Joseph

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Solar Cataclysm

How the Sun Shaped the Past and What We Can Do to Save Our Future

Lawrence E. Joseph

Genre: Earth Sciences

Price: $1.99

Publish Date: September 25, 2012

Publisher: HarperOne

Seller: HARPERCOLLINS PUBLISHERS


Science journalist and futurist Lawrence Joseph has studied the unprecedented solar storms since the last ice age and in Solar Cataclysm he reveals the monumental ecological, biological, emotional, political, financial, and cultural effects they have had in the past, and will ultimately have on humanity’s future. This timely, fascinating, and relevant book from the bestselling author of Apocalypse 2012 sounds an intelligent and urgent warning about the possible catastrophic consequences we will face in the coming years if we don’t listen to what the sun is trying to tell us. Popular science fans who made The World Without Us a runaway bestseller, readers open to new angles on history like those presented in Guns, Germs, and Steel, and anyone who is concerned about tomorrow and what we can do to ensure humankind’s survival must read Solar Cataclysm.

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Solar Cataclysm – Lawrence E. Joseph

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An Eco-Do: Getting Your ’Do Done at a Green Salon

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Treating yourself to a cut and color feels luxurious and, sometimes, essential. The confidence boost that comes with a new ’do is priceless, and the blissful head-massage-meets-shampoo-services is icing on the cake.

Salons are bursting with styling tools, hair clippings, dyes and various other beauty products that need recycling, reuse or proper disposal. Considering our personal eco-friendly behavior is one thing, but larger-scale businesses like salons deal with a green dilemma, too. Efficient recycling, waste management and green actions are a common concern in the industry.

The salon industry in North America generates more than 400,000 pounds of waste every day.

How long will your hair dryer live if you use it, say, every other day? In salons, electronics like these are used much more frequently. The amount of electronics, shampoos and other environmental pollutants salons churn through is staggering.

Until recently, most salons were unsure of what to do with their excess.

Salons Go Sustainable

Green Circle Salons was born in 2009. The innovative company is focused on creating sustainable salons in North America, primarily through a green certification for salons that meet their recycling and waste-reduction standards.

Their efforts have diverted nearly 3 million pounds of waste from landfills so far, and they’re still going strong. Green Circle Salons are committed to recycling and reusing electronics, paper and plastic products, color by-product, aerosol cans, foils, and hair clippings. Green Circle collects these items from certified salons on a weekly basis, recycling and disposing of materials appropriately.

The company also encourages salons to cut down on water use, reduce energy with LED lights, and invest in organic tea and coffee for clients. Certified salons often implement water-saving faucets and eco-friendly cleaning products, too.

Instead of rinsing hazardous chemicals down the drain, they are sent to chemical waste plants. Foil, plastic and paper products are dutifully recycled, and collected hair clippings are used to make ultra-absorbent brooms to clean up oil spills.

In green salons, those hair clippings go to good use. Photo: Adobe Stock

Where Can I Find a Certified Salon?

Though the company is based in Canada, Green Circle Salons has certified thousands of green salons across North America.

Green Circle certified salons are a win-win — both stylists and clients can feel comfortable knowing they are supporting a sustainable business.

Any salon in North America can join the movement. It’s as simple as giving them a quick call or filling out their short online form. Once you’ve undergone a staff orientation, Green Circle Salons will send you everything you need to take eco-friendly initiatives at your salons. Recycling bins, bin labels and promotional materials will arrive on your doorstep in no time.

Becoming Green Circle certified does wonders for salons. Green-minded clients (like Earth911 readers) come running when it’s time for their next service.

The company has an online directory of certified salons, so you can easily find a green stylist in your area.

Convert Your Favorite Salon

If you notice your community is lacking in green salons, you don’t have to give up haircuts and let your locks grow to your knees.

Green Circle Salons trains teams of ambassadors to help get the word out about their green certification. With the public’s growing interest in sustainability, a business lacking an environmental impact plan is hopeless. It’s important for behind-the-times salons to learn about the benefits of becoming Green Circle certified.

Becoming an ambassador is simple. Anyone is eligible to sign up for the program on the website, go through a training session, and begin backing the company’s mission. They’ll arm you with the tools needed to motivate your favorite salons to go green, build revenue and gain eco-minded clients.

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An Eco-Do: Getting Your ’Do Done at a Green Salon

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Predicting the Biggest Green Trend for 2018

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Although Kermit the Frog once sang, “It’s not easy being green,” over the past decade, it sure has been cool to live green.

Ever since An Inconvenient Truth debuted in 2006, there seems to be one eco-friendly product or innovation that takes the U.S. by storm each year and enters the mainstream. In many cases, it’s a product that has been around for years that becomes popular due to legislation, lower prices or a scientific health study.

Even without a crystal ball, we can look at some of the green trends that appear to be on the rise heading into 2018.

What Makes a Green Trend?

In order to identify which green trend is about to take off, it’s helpful to look back at how previous green trends came to play. Here are the biggest green trends since 2007 and the trigger that started each:

Year
Green Trend
Cause(s)
Impact
2007
Compact fluorescent lightbulbs (CFL)
Legislation, price
Highest U.S. CFL sales of all-time
2008
Proper disposal of medications
Scientific study
DEA starts national drug collection events
2009
Television recycling
Legislation
Consumers stop buying CRT screens and recycle old ones after digital switch
2010
Metal water bottles/ Bisphenol A (BPA)
Scientific study
Drop in reusable plastic water bottle sales due to BPA concerns
2011
Online shopping/
Cyber Monday
Price
Cyber Monday catches Black Friday for consumer interest in holiday shopping
2012
Hybrid/electric cars
Price
High gas prices, new models lead to 73 percent increase in hybrid sales over the previous year
2013
Fracking
Legislation, social media
New tech for acquiring natural gas leads to countless protests over environmental impact
2014
Farm-to-table food
General trend
Americans demand (and pay for) locally sourced foods
2015
Graywater
Legislation, natural disaster
California droughts make graywater a hot topic to water plants and grow crops
2016
Dakota Access Pipeline
Legislation, social media
Native American tribe protest goes viral on social media
2017
Flexitarianism
Scientific study
Documentaries like What the Health lead Americans to consider more plant-based diets

There’s no real pattern to discern from the past 11 years, other than the fact that these green trends were fueled by new laws, health studies, social media or a reduction in price. All of these circumstances are difficult to predict.

Candidates for 2018’s Greenest Trend

Before we crown a winner, here are a few contenders for the biggest green fad of 2018:

Companies embrace telecommuting: Yes, working from home already feels big, but only 3 percent of the U.S. workforce got to work from home in 2015. The environmental benefits are obvious, from reducing car emissions to limiting office waste. But companies are finally starting to see the cost savings in telecommuting, and as the unemployment rate falls, working remotely will be a top way to recruit new talent in industries like technology and health care. Expect to see fewer employees around the office next year, and for a positive reason.

Telecommuting will only rise in popularity in 2018. Photo: Adobe Stock

Emphasis on food product labeling: Consumers have already shown they want to know where their food comes from and its ingredients, but labels can tell so much more. The FDA will be requiring food manufacturers to print new nutrition labels starting in 2018 that provide a more accurate account of nutritional elements. Whole Foods has also announced that all its food products must provide genetically modified organisms (GMO) information on the label by September 2018. Expect to spend more time at the grocery store researching what goes in your body.

We’ll spend more time reading labels in the store in 2018. Photo: Adobe Stock

The solar revolution takes hold: Until recently, most of the investment in solar technology was restricted to commercial buildings and the richest homeowners. But the price of solar panels continues to fall, and it’s not just for buildings anymore. Some of the coolest innovations in electronics are due to solar power. Expect to see more solar-powered backpacks, watches and city trash cans, as Americans embrace the power of the sun.

Expect more roofs with solar panels this coming year. Photo: Adobe Stock

And the Winner Is . . .

Emphasis on food product labeling

This trend has everything consumers care about when it comes to green trends: government involvement, health concerns and even the price impact as health care cost increases necessitate better nutrition. Plus, in two of the past four years, the green trend was related to diet.

What do you think the big green trend will be this year? Let us know in the comments below.

Predicting the Biggest Green Trend for 2018

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Predicting the Biggest Green Trend for 2018

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The 3 Holiday Plants That Clean the Air

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You don’t have to have a green thumb — or be vegan — to delight in the presence of plants. Gardening and food consumption aside, household plants are pretty miraculous to have around due to their numerous superpowers. And what better time to take advantage than during the holidays, when we could all use as many superpowers as possible.

Health Benefits of Plants

Most of us realize the pluses of incorporating greenery in our indoor environments, including 20 percent less dust, according to a study by Washington State University. Besides magical fairy dusting and beautification of a space, plants can absorb up to 10 percent of carbon dioxide and release oxygen back into the air we breathe. Plants even reduce stress and boost morale when placed in offices, simultaneously reducing airborne bacteria.

Plants Improve Indoor Air Quality

What many people are unaware of is the fact that certain plants do all of the above while also removing toxic gases and chemical vapors commonly found in our indoor environments, according to studies by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Green building today is great for energy efficiency, but it’s not always so great for our health. In 1973, NASA realized that indoor air pollution in tightly sealed structures could present health-related problems. The Clean Air Study, led by Dr. B.C. Wolverton in conjunction with the Associated Landscape Contractors of America, discovered the miraculous benefits of 50 houseplants (three of them being holiday plants) that are exceptional little air scrubbers. These must be potted plants in soil and ideally, one should be placed every 100 feet for maximum air filtration benefits, as advised by NASA.

3 Holiday Plants that Remove Chemicals

Three popular holiday plants — the Poinsettia, the Norfolk Island Pine and the Christmas Cactus — work as natural, mini air purifiers. They provide an affordable defense by absorbing volatile organic compounds (VOCs), such as formaldehyde, benzene and ammonia, from the air through the tiny openings in their leaves (stomata) and their root microbes. Let’s take a closer look at each plant.

1. Poinsettia

You’ll recognize this holiday beauty from its bright, vibrant bracts (leaves). Ironically, it’s not the flower of this plant, rather the leaves, that are grown in pink, red, white, speckled or marbled. Discovered by Joel Poinsett in 1830 in Southern Mexico, this plant prefers semi-shade. It’s easy to grow and pretty resistant to insect infestation. Water when the top layer is dry.

2. Norfolk Island Pine

Photo: Adobe Stock

This evergreen often serves as a mini Christmas tree with a similar appeal. One variety, the heterophylla, is suitable for indoors and can grow up to 10 feet high! It was discovered by Captain Cook and botanist Sir Joseph Banks. The Norfolk Island Pine prefers full sun to semi-shade. Use water sparingly in the winter and mist often.

3. Christmas Cactus

Photo: Adobe Stock

This beautiful cactus with bright red buds blooms fully in December. Unlike most plants, this cactus removes CO2 and releases oxygen at night, making it a great plant for the bedroom. It prefers semi-sun and is highly resistant to insect infestation. Allow it to dry between waterings.

There you have it — the perfect holiday or housewarming gift. Your host or hostess will be breathing easier through the hustle and bustle while enjoying a more beautiful and relaxing home.

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The 3 Holiday Plants That Clean the Air

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The Economy Is Not Booming

Mother Jones

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Neil Irwin writes about the fabulous Trump economy:

The stock market reached yet another new high on Wednesday, the latest development to make a mockery of what savvy economic commentators thought they knew about the world.

Consider how things looked one year ago. The world economy seemed hopelessly trapped in a cycle of low growth and inflation. Markets recoiled at the mere possibility that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates. Populist political insurgencies seemed to threaten yet more financial market chaos.

Now, interest rates and inflation forecasts have risen substantially from last winter’s lows; financial markets are shrugging off — or even rallying at the possibility of — imminent Fed rate increases; and it is all taking place during Donald J. Trump’s presidency.

Why do we keep hearing this? Once again, here’s the S&P 500 since the end of the Great Recession. I’ve even adjusted it for inflation just to be super fair:

There nothing there. The stock market is growing at precisely the same rate as it has for the past eight years. If you zoom in and take look at the S&P 500 just since Election Day, you see the same thing: it’s been bouncing tightly around a trend line the entire time. There has been no rally at the possibility of interest rate increases from the Fed.

As for inflation, I’ve already dealt with that today. It’s been closely following a trendline too, and literally nothing new has happened since the election. However, it is true that inflationary expectations started rising last June—though a little context helps here:

If you start your chart in mid-2016, you can make it look like inflationary expectations are taking off like a rocket. But in reality, we’re still nowhere close to where we were five years after the end of the Great Recession, and expectations have flattened out in the past couple of months.

Finally, economic growth. You can talk about animal spirits all you want, but GDP growth in the US has been running steadily between 1 percent and 3 percent since 2010. Last quarter it was 1.9 percent, and there’s no particular reason to think it’s about to take a sustained jump. As for the rest of the world, the IMF doesn’t seem especially optimistic:

US growth might be a little sluggish, but it’s still a lot better than China and Europe, which are projected to decline in 2017 and 2018. The rest of the world will do a little better, but only a little.

However, there is one part of the economy that has unquestionably been booming since Trump was elected: big Wall Street banks.

Wall Street has been kicking major ass since November 8. And why not? The economy may or may not be booming, but they’re pretty sure that Trump is going to lower their taxes and ease up on all those pesky regulations that Obama tried to force on them. If I were a big bank, I’d be pretty excited too.

I’m not especially trying to badmouth the economy here. It’s doing fine, if not great. Growth is decent, wages are showing signs of life, we’re getting close to full employment, and inflation is under control. As labor markets tighten, we might even some real improvement in wages and living standards. That’s not bad, especially compared to the rest of the world. But there’s really not much evidence that we’ve been in any kind of boom times since November. Growth is steady, the stock market is steady, employment is steady, and inflation is steady. Just because Wall Street is excited doesn’t mean they know something we don’t.

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The Economy Is Not Booming

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Donald Trump Is Once Again the Day Trader in Chief

Mother Jones

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Early this morning Donald Trump launched another one of his famously random tweets:

The F-35 program is pretty famously over budget. I don’t think anyone will argue with Trump about that. But Christopher Bouzy asks an interesting question. Here’s a chart showing Lockheed Martin’s stock price today:

Bouzy wonders if someone profited by knowing about Trump’s tweet a few minutes before it went out. This is a reasonable suspicion if you look at tweeting and trading times down to the minute, but if you look at them down to the second you get a different picture. Trump’s tweet went out at 8:26:13 and there were a flurry of small trades ten seconds later, followed by a second flurry three seconds after that. This caused Lockheed Martin’s price to drop considerably, but only because pre-market trading volume is pretty low and illiquid, so even a smallish trade can send prices down. Most likely, these flurries were day traders who happened to see Trump’s tweet and acted instantly, or perhaps some kind of bot that reacts to Trump tweets.1

But even if there was no hanky panky, our president-elect still seems to have had an effect: Lockheed Martin stock traded very heavily today and closed down by more than two percent. Coincidence? Or a response to Trump’s tweet?

This revives a question we asked last week after Trump tweeted about Softbank, sending Sprint and T-Mobile stock upward. Do we really want the president of the United States calling out individual corporations and affecting their stock prices? Do we really want to be left wondering if maybe someone had a little advance knowledge of Trump’s tweets? That doesn’t seem to have been the case today, but if you knew a day ahead, for example, your trade would get lost in the noise and no one would ever know.

I assume the answer to these questions is no, isn’t it?

1Ridiculous? Not at all. I’d be surprised if someone hasn’t done this.

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Donald Trump Is Once Again the Day Trader in Chief

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10 Ways to Start Living Zero Waste

The Zero Waste lifestyle has a reputation for being staunchly minimalisticno exceptions. People hear the word “zero” and instantly react with all sorts of questions, wondering how in the world my husband andIcan possibly operate in themodern world without creating trash.

Going Zero Waste sounds incredibly complicated. In fact, when I first came across the movement, I was very skeptical. “These people must be doing this for attention,” I thought. “There’s just no way this is possible. Do they live self-sustained in a cabin in the woods? Do they ever go shopping?!”

So, I decided to try it.

Truth is, Zero Waste is not nearly as complex as it seems from the outside. I’ve been sincerely amazed by the impact a few simple changes (such as making my own chicken stock, or shopping secondhand) has had on the amount of garbage my household produces. We haven’t yet reached “zero,” but I am confident in what we have accomplished thus far.

The Zero Waste lifestyle has a way of “lightening your load” in innumerable ways. It’s more than justthe liftingof that landfill guilt off ourshoulders; going Zero Waste is making us healthier, happier, more fulfilled people because it is shifting our mindset from selfishness to a holistic, community way of thinking.

Since we stopped using processed, packaged, plastic-y, toxic products in our home, we both get sick far less than we used to, I spend way less time picking up the clutter in our house and I cookbetter meals that are seasonal to where we live. We contribute to the “circle of life” by composting, and we spend more quality time with friends. It’s really true!

I am a believer that we don’t all need to go full-on Zero Waste to solve our environmental problems. But can you imagine what could happen if we and our families made the intentional decision to reduce our waste? What about our friends? Our friends’ friends?

Toxic, poorly made single-use plastics (SUPs) would no longer benecessary to us. We could do away with all sorts of product packaging all together. We could use all the money we save on disposables to invest in better, more sustainable materials. We could strengthen local business and local agriculture and become more in touch with the Earth and its seasons. We could significantly reduce the number of people fighting cancers caused by chemical toxins, clean up our cities from garbage and debris, and cultivate endless creativity in our lives.

I’m all for that.

Lesseningyour environmental impact and finding better ways to live lightly on the Earth is trulyas simple as changing your habitsopting for solutions to your daily challengesthat are sustainable and healthful, rather than purely convenient and ultimately damaging.

Ready to get started making a difference? Start with these ten tips! I promise you, this is doable:

1) Start bringing cloth bags to the grocery store.

You’ll never have to answer that pesky “Paper or plastic?” question again. To eliminate all possibility of forgetting your totes, keep one in each of your family vehicles and one at the front door. Make sure you do this several times in a row and before you know it you’ll have established a new, wonderful habit!

2) Go paperless in the kitchen.

Paper towels serve no real purpose once you’ve replaced them with reusable cleaning cloths. In fact, I think cloths work much better to clean surfaces. Keep a drawer or basket in your kitchen nice and full of freshly laundered rags, preferably in a dark color to hide stains. We choose to keep a small laundry basket in our kitchen to collect dirty rags before they make their way to the laundry. It’s very easy to do!

3) Start usinga reusable travel mug and water bottle.

I am a big fan of bringing a beautiful, unique travel mug to coffee shops, rather than accepting single use waxed paper cups. Most places will even give you a discount if you bring your own cup for your beverage! I personally choose to keep a ceramic one in my car so that I never forget it. Bonus: These will keep your drink warmer for longer!

4) Get an under-the-sink food waste container and compost.

Food waste is one of America’s greatest faults. Huge amounts of scraps, expired foods and other extras end up in landfills when they could have been used to make delicious soups or to feed our local poor and needy people. Search out recipes that make use of leftovers and scraps (think a breakfast hash made from dinner extras, or a vegetable broth simmered from carrot shavings) and compost anything that serves no future purpose. Keep a small or medium-sized container with a tight-fitting lid underneath your sink to collect these genuine extras and compost in the backyard (if you’re allowed insidecity limits) or keep a worm bin in the kitchen or garage.

5) Get aggressive with junk mail.

Just say NO. Grab a cup of coffee and your phone and hunker down on the couch to call as many contributors to the junk mail problem as you can. If you’re happy with your cable provider but you keep getting promotions, get rid of them. If you never use coupons but they just keep getting printed, get rid of them. Never use the phone book? Cancel it. The tail end of what’s left of your junk mail can usually be recycled. You can start to cancel them here: DMAchoice, Opt Out Prescreen, and Catalog Choice.

6) Start making some of your own toiletries.

Making your own toothpaste or deodorant might sound ridiculous, but it’s actually a pretty great way to reduce your garbagein the bathroom! For this recipe, all you need is a little coconut oil, baking soda and some peppermint essential oil to form a paste. It’s that simple. I can vouch for this recipe: my teeth have never been whiter and my dentist hasn’t found a single issue!

7) Refuse single-use plastics (SUPs).

Whether you’re out to eat or at a barbecue, stop accepting the use of SUPs like plastic utensils, straws, snack baggies, or garbage bags. There is always an alternative! Keep a set of real or bamboo silverware in your purse or vehicle, wrap your snacks in reusable cloth sacks or tea towels and use leftover newspaper to line your small garbage bins.

8) Start grocery shopping in bulk stores.

Shopping out of bulk bins cuts out a great deal of waste from food packaging. Rather than buying a new unrecyclable bagof kidney beansevery week, fill a large pantry jar with beansstraight from a bulk bin and refill when you’re finished with it. No waste!

9) Simplify your cleaning products.

You’d be amazed what you can accomplish in your home with white distilled vinegar, baking soda and a little bulk castilesoap. There is truly no need for any sort of chemical cleaning product! Stock your pantry with these ingredients and you’ll never need to purchase surface cleaner, toilet bowl cleaner, window washing fluid, dish soap, face wash or bleach again.

10) Replace plastics with long-lasting or compostable alternatives.

We are lucky to live in a time in which more and more sustainable alternatives to plastic products are arising. Bamboo and hemp are just a couple of examples that have made this possible! Stop purchasing plastic cleaning utensils and toothbrushes and look for compostable alternatives instead. Great places to do this are with your: dish scrubber, sponges, toilet bowl brush, toothbrush, loofahs, vegetable scrubbers, etc.

How do you think you can reduce your environmental impact by starting some Zero Waste habits? Let us know in the comments!

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are solely those of the author and may not reflect those of Care2, Inc., its employees or advertisers.

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How Trump’s Casino Bankruptcies Screwed His Workers 0ut of Millions in Retirement Savings

Mother Jones

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When pressed about the multiple bankruptcies at his Atlantic City casinos, Donald Trump routinely says the episodes highlight his business acumen. He made out well, he claims, at the expense only of his greedy Wall Street financiers. “These lenders aren’t babies,” he said during a Republican primary debate last fall. “These are total killers. These are not the nice, sweet little people that you think, okay?”

Yet among those who suffered as a result of Trump’s bankruptcies were his own casino employees, who collectively lost millions of dollars in retirement savings when the company’s value plummeted.

Trump’s company encouraged its employees to invest their retirement savings in company stock, according to a class-action lawsuit filed by employees against Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts following its 2004 bankruptcy. Then, when the stock price was near its nadir as bankruptcy loomed, the company forced the employees to sell their stock at a huge loss. More than 400 employees lost a total of more than $2 million from their retirement accounts, the lawsuit states.

The lawsuit was ultimately dismissed when a judge found no illegal actions on the part of Trump’s company. But the conflict shows how Trump’s exploitation of bankruptcy laws for his personal gain did end up hurting his employees.

“I didn’t realize he was as stupid as he is,” says a former casino worker at Trump Plaza who asked not to be named. “Honestly. I thought, way back when, the guy was way brighter than we were. He was running the company and we were working for him. We thought he was brilliant. When we invested in it, we thought, how could this stock go so low?”

Trump has never had to declare personal bankruptcy, but the company he set up to operate his Atlantic City casinos went through numerous corporate restructurings to reduce its debt load. As the New York Times recounted last year, Trump used his company as a means of transferring his personal debt load onto shareholders, issuing rounds of junk bonds to build up cash that would erase his own debts. “Even as his companies did poorly, Mr. Trump did well,” the Times wrote. “He put up little of his own money, shifted personal debts to the casinos and collected millions of dollars in salary, bonuses and other payments. The burden of his failures fell on investors and others who had bet on his business acumen.”

Starting in 1996, workers at Trump’s casinos were allowed to invest their 401(k) savings directly into Trump stock. (It was the only individual stock offered; the other options were mutual funds.) But that same year, THCR sold $1.1 billion in junk bonds to offset some of Trump’s personal debt and buy two more ill-fated casino properties in Atlantic City. As the company floundered in the years leading up to its second bankruptcy in 2004, the stock price plummeted. According to the class-action complaint, “Between 1996 and August, 2004, employees were encouraged to invest in THCR shares as the price fell from $30/share to $2/share.”

By the end of 1997, employees had used more than $2 million in retirement funds to purchase 218,394 shares. The number of shares in employees’ retirement accounts rose steadily even as the price dropped. By late 2003, the pool of employee retirement accounts held 1.1 million shares of Trump stock.

But Trump’s casinos were in near-fatal trouble. On August 10, 2004, the New York Stock Exchange removed the company from its listings as THCR announced a plan to restructure the company’s debt and enter bankruptcy. Shares had been valued at $1.85 the previous day, but tanked to $0.36 in over-the-counter trades after the de-listing.

The committee that managed the Trump employee retirement accounts—with which Trump had no personal involvement—made the decision at that time to prevent workers from buying additional shares in the company because it had become an overly risky investment. “This prevented Plan participants from using an ‘averaging down’ strategy of buying additional shares at the current much lower price, to recoup some of their losses,” the class-action complaint alleged. Employees could still sell shares, but with the $0.10-per-share transaction fee the company charged whenever an employee liquidated stock from his or her retirement account, there was little incentive to do so.

The company’s initial bankruptcy plan fell through a month later, but in late October 2004 a new restructuring plan was approved. With the company soon slated to enter bankruptcy, the retirement fund committee voted on October 25 that any remaining shares of THCR held in the retirement accounts would be sold in bulk by Merrill Lynch on November 15 and sent a letter to workers at the casinos on October 28 informing them of the plan.

As the class-action lawsuit noted, that announcement didn’t help the share price. “Announcing a planned sale of a huge block of stock in a letter to thousands of employees meant that market participants would learn of the forced sale, and adjust their trading strategies to take advantage of the anticipated increase in supply of THCR shares,” the complaint stated. “This would have the unfortunate effect of depressing the stock immediately before the sale of Plan stock.” Employees rushed to dump their stock before the forced sale, with 117,966 shares from the retirement plan unloaded in the two weeks between the announcement and the date of the forced sale.

More than 400 employees still held Trump stock when the forced sale arrived. The stock had been trading at $0.80 on the day of the announcement but had dropped by more than a quarter, to an average of $0.57, when the employees were forced to sell their 924,698 shares the next month. For an employee who’d put $1,000 into her retirement account in 1997 when shares averaged $9.65 apiece, those savings had now withered to just $59.

Less than a week after the forced sale, the company filed for bankruptcy. The markets seemed to approve of the restructuring plan. Three weeks after the forced sale, the share price was up to $2.04. None of the employees were able to profit from that gain.

Five longtime Trump employees—four from the Trump Plaza and one from Trump Marina—filed the lawsuit against the company the next year. They each held between 8,300 and 21,110 shares at the time the forced sale was announced. The lawsuit alleged that the committee in charge of the retirement plan had breached its fiduciary duty by mandating the complete liquidation of employee-held stock when its value was at a low, resulting in more than $2.3 million in losses for employees.

In the end, a federal judge in New Jersey dismissed the class-action lawsuit. “At its core,” the judge wrote, “Plaintiffs’ assertion that Defendants breached their fiduciary duties amounts to nothing more than a claim based on perfect hindsight.” The Trump executives on the retirement fund committee couldn’t necessarily know that the restructuring would boost share prices, the judge found, given the “tenuous” position of the company at the time. Still, the ruling didn’t dispute the extent of the losses suffered by employees.

Trump himself fared well through the bankruptcy. He kept a $2 million annual salary after the company emerged from bankruptcy and took in more than $44 million in compensation over the course of the 14 years he served as chairman of THCR.

“I don’t think it’s a failure,” he said of the bankruptcy in 2004. “It’s a success.”

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How Trump’s Casino Bankruptcies Screwed His Workers 0ut of Millions in Retirement Savings

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My Social Security Reform Plan: One-Third-One-Third-One-Third

Mother Jones

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Atrios says that 401(k) retirement plans have been a disaster:

The current system has failed, and the exciting plan to “fix” the failed system is run the same experiment, with minor tweaks, over for another 40 years and see how that works. Of course if you just grab your trusty envelope back and do The Math, the pittance people will save in these exciting new plans will be just that, a pittance.

This is a common view on the left, usually delivered with no evidence because it’s considered so obvious that no evidence is needed. On the occasions when there is evidence, it’s usually something about the stock market being in bad shape circa 2010.

So let’s take a look at the evidence. I’ve put all of this up before, but not in one place. So let’s collect it. Here’s chart #1:

Retirement-age folks have done better than any other age group since 1974, and way better since 2000. So far so good. Here’s chart #2:

This is Social Security’s projection of median elderly income over the next 25 years. It looks pretty good too. There’s no evident crisis in these numbers. And this is not from some think tank with an axe to grind. It’s from the Social Security Administration’s MINT projection, which is probably the most comprehensive look we have at all sources of income among retired folks. Here’s chart #3:

This comes from the Center for Retirement Research, a decidedly liberal outfit. They’ve been a longtime proponent of the view that 401(k) plans are worse than old-style defined benefit pensions, but last year they revisited this question using better data. What they found is that for the past 30 years, pension wealth has stayed steady even as 401(k) plans have become more popular and DB plans have gone the way of the dodo (except in the public sector, where they’re still common). In other words 401(k)s aren’t a failure.

My final bit of data, sadly, doesn’t lend itself to chart format, so we shall have to use words instead. In 2006, Congress passed the Pension Protection Act, something that most critics of 401(k) plans seem to ignore—or perhaps are blissfully unaware of. In the past 10 years, it’s accomplished the following:

Allowed companies to automatically enroll workers (subject to an opt-out), thus increasing the number of people with 401(k)s.
Made 401(k)s more accessible to small businesses.
Increased 401(k) participation considerably among young workers and low-income workers, who need them the most.
Encouraged the use of lifecycle funds, the best type for retirement plans.

Put all these things together, and there’s very little evidence for any kind of broad retirement crisis. Retirement readiness in America seems to be about the same as it’s always been.

Does that mean everything is hunky-dory? Of course not. 401(k) fees are still too high, something that I’d dearly love to see Hillary Clinton address with new federal regulation. It’s probably also true that old-style pensions were a little more generous for low-income workers than 401(k)s, though the evidence on this score is fuzzy. What’s more, although retirement readiness is no worse than it’s been in the past, it’s not really any better either. In particular, folks at the bottom of the income ladder still don’t participate much in 401(k) programs and rely entirely on Social Security, which is pretty stingy for low earners.

My answer to this is Kevin’s One-Third-One-Third plan. That is, Social Security payments for the bottom third should be increased by a third. This would make a huge difference to the lowest-income workers, but at a pretty reasonable price. My back-of-the-envelope chicken scratchings suggest it would cost about $20-30 billion. That’s politically within reason.

There’s one other change I’d like to see, but I’ll leave that for another time. In a nutshell, there really doesn’t appear to be any kind of broad-based retirement crisis. 401(k) plans have performed decently and are likely to perform even better in the future. Our biggest retirement problem is with the lowest-income workers, and that could be fixed at a pretty modest cost if we could only muster the political will to do it.

UPDATE: I really wanted my plan to be called “One-Third-One-Third-One-Third,” but I couldn’t think of a third “One-Third.” However, @Noman suggested raising the Social Security earnings cap to pay for my plan, and it turns out that an increase in the cap of one-third would raise roughly $30 billion. Isn’t it great when a plan comes together?

So now it’s the One-Third-One-Third-One-Third plan: payments to the bottom third should be boosted one-third by raising the earnings cap one-third. Take that, Herman Cain.

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My Social Security Reform Plan: One-Third-One-Third-One-Third

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