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Marcellus Energy Development Could Pave Over an Area Bigger Than the State of Delaware

Mother Jones

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This story originally appeared on the Huffington Post website and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

Development of natural gas and wind resources in the Marcellus shale region could cover up nearly 1.3 million acres of land, an area bigger than the state of Delaware, with cement, asphalt and other impervious surfaces, according to a paper published this month in the scientific journal PLOS One.

The study, conducted by two scientists from the conservation organization The Nature Conservancy, predicts that 106,004 new gas wells will be drilled in the Marcellus region, based on current trends in natural gas development. The region includes parts of New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio and Virginia.

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Marcellus Energy Development Could Pave Over an Area Bigger Than the State of Delaware

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See Chefs Marcus Samuelsson and Gabrielle Hamilton Talk Kitchen Diversity

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Last fall, I had the good fortune to attend the most dazzling culinary confab of my life.

Set at the dramatically beautiful Stone Barns Center for Food and Agriculture outside of New York City, the event included some of the globe’s most-decorated chefs: Spaniards Ferran Adrià and Joan Roca, France’s Michel Bras, Enrique Olvera of Mexico, Peru’s Gastón Acurio, and Brazil’s Alex Atala, along with US luminaries including Dan Barber, Daniel Patterson, and David Kinch. It also featured a mind-blowing discussion of plant breeding that has opened new vistas of reporting for me, the first stirrings of which are here and here.

But amid the glittering names, the provocative ideas, and the gorgeous food, an uncomfortable thought crossed my mind: Where were the women chefs? There were a handful, including New York City’s great April Bloomfield. And a good number of the plant breeders in attendance were women. But in terms of chefs, it was a bro-fest on the Hudson. Yet I could think of myriad women—Anita Lo, Alice Waters, Suzanne Goin, Traci Des Jardins, Gabrielle Hamilton, Amanda Cohen, Dominique Crenn, and more—who could have contributed significantly to the conversation. What was up?

So I dug into the topic, and found that—like other high-prestige fields including investment banking and science—men, and particularly white men, continue to dominate the chef trade. (Story here.) But I also found that things are changing—women and people of color are claiming a place for themselves at the exclusive table of culinary prestige.

So my Mother Jones overlords and I are extremely excited to be hosting a panel discussion in New York City on March 3, where we’ll be assembling a few of the pioneers who are pushing this long-overdue change. The panel will convene at Ginny’s Supper Club, upstairs from Marcus Samuelsson’s instant-classic Harlem restaurant Red Rooster. It will include Marcus himself, a much-decorated chef and author of the highly praised memoir Yes, Chef; Gabrielle Hamilton, chef/proprietor of the East Village gem Prune and author of her own celebrated memoir, Blood, Bones, and Butter; Floyd Cardoz, chef at North End Grill in Battery Park City, former chef at the late and beloved new-Indian restaurant Tabla, and author of One Spice, Two Spice; and Charlene Johnson-Hadley, who worked her way up through Samuelsson’s Red Rooster kitchen and is now executive chef at his Lincoln Center outpost American Table Bar and Cafe.

I can promise a great conversation. Marcus rocked the previous NYC panel we staged back in 2012. As for Hamilton, despite her expert knife skills, she’s not one to mince words onstage. At a recent panel, she had this to say about big culinary confabs and their tendency to exclude women: “How come I’ve never been invited to one of these things? Is it that I have nothing to offer? … I want to be invited, and I want to have the opportunity to f-ing turn it down.”

Unlike most panels, ours will include only one white dude: me. And I hope to see you there. Space at this event is limited, and tickets are on sale now—details here.

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See Chefs Marcus Samuelsson and Gabrielle Hamilton Talk Kitchen Diversity

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Quote of the Day: Mammograms Shouldn’t Be Pawns in a Religious War

Mother Jones

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From Aaron Carroll, responding to the deluge of lame criticisms aimed at a recent study showing that mammograms don’t do much to reduce mortality from breast cancer:

I leave you with one final thought. If you’re not going to be swayed at all by a randomized controlled trial of 90,000 women with 25 year follow up, excellent compliance, and damn good methods, it might be time to consider that there’s really no study at all that will make you change your mind.

This really has taken on the nature of a religious war. But eventually we have to face facts. If you have a family history of breast cancer, or some specific markers of vulnerability, or if your doctor thinks you need one, then of course you should get a mammogram. But despite what we’ve all been taught for the past several decades, the evidence is becoming overwhelming that a blanket recommendation of routine annual mammograms for everyone over the age of 40 just isn’t good medicine. This isn’t coming from people who are anti-woman or who are just trying slash budgets. Nor is anyone saying that mammograms are useless. That just isn’t what’s happening.

What’s happening is routine science. And unlike religion, the answers change now and then when you do routine science. That’s sometimes uncomfortable and sometimes scary. But that’s the story here. Right now, the answers are changing, and we need to change along with them.

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Quote of the Day: Mammograms Shouldn’t Be Pawns in a Religious War

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NFL Apprehensive About Its First Openly Gay Player

Mother Jones

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Michael Sam, a defensive end who was projected to be a mid-round choice in the NFL draft this year, announced today that he’s gay. So how did the league react?

“I don’t think football is ready for an openly gay player just yet,” said an NFL player personnel assistant. “In the coming decade or two, it’s going to be acceptable, but at this point in time it’s still a man’s-man game. To call somebody a gay slur is still so commonplace. It’d chemically imbalance an NFL locker room and meeting room.”

All the NFL personnel members interviewed believed that Sam’s announcement will cause him to drop in the draft. He was projected between the third and seventh rounds prior to the announcement. The question is: How far will he fall?

“I just know with this going on this is going to drop him down,” said a veteran NFL scout. “There’s no question about it. It’s human nature. Do you want to be the team to quote-unquote ‘break that barrier?'”

….The potential distraction of his presence — both in the media and the locker room — could prevent him from being selected. “That will break a tie against that player,” the former general manager said. “Every time. Unless he’s Superman. Why? Not that they’re against gay people. It’s more that some players are going to look at you upside down. Every Tom, Dick and Harry in the media is going to show up, from Good Housekeeping to the Today show. A general manager is going to ask, ‘Why are we going to do that to ourselves?'”

The former general manager said that it would take an NFL franchise with a strong owner, savvy general manager and veteran coach to make drafting Sam work. He rattled off franchises like Pittsburgh, Green Bay, San Francisco, Baltimore and Indianapolis as potential destinations. The former general manager added that a team with a rookie head coach would not be an ideal landing spot.

Moral of the story: Yes, we’ve made progress. But we still have a ways to go.

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NFL Apprehensive About Its First Openly Gay Player

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Stephen Kim Agrees to Plea Deal in North Korea Leak Case

Mother Jones

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Yesterday I wondered whether the infamous “Friday afternoon news dump” was overblown. Does releasing embarrassing stuff on Friday really reduce the amount of coverage it gets? I’m skeptical.

Today, bmaz says the news dump is alive and well. Stephen Jin-Woo Kim, who was fingered last year as the guy who leaked North Korean intel to a reporter, agreed to a plea deal this afternoon:

As you may recall, this is the infamous case where the Obama/Holder DOJ was caught classifying a journalist, James Rosen of Fox News, as an “aider and abettor” of espionage….The fully justifiable uproar over the Rosen treatment by DOJ eventually led to “new guidelines” being issued by the DOJ. The new guidelines are certainly a half step in the right direction, but wholly unsatisfactory for the breadth and scope of the current Administration’s attack on the American free press.

But now the case undergirding the discussion in the Stephen Kim case will be shut down, and the questions that could play out in an actual trial quashed. All nice and tidy!

You can read more about it here. But I’m not sure this says much about the Friday news dump. I don’t think anyone really expected this case to go to trial, given the fact that Kim basically confessed, and I doubt that today’s announcement would have gotten a lot of attention no matter when it had happened. It’s the kind of thing that bmaz and I are interested in, but for most people it’s just a routine follow-up to a story they barely even heard about in the first place.

Plus it didn’t work! It’s not getting banner headlines or anything, but right now this story is on the front page of the New York Times, the Washington Post, Fox News Politics, Politico, and USA Today. On the wire service side, both AP and Reuters have moved pieces about the plea deal. That’s about as much attention as something like this was ever likely to get.

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Stephen Kim Agrees to Plea Deal in North Korea Leak Case

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Let’s Get Our Obamacare Story Straight, Folks

Mother Jones

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Having just berated the nation’s news media for credulously reporting that Obamacare would result in the “loss” of 2 million jobs, I want to push back a bit in the other direction too. Here is Paul Krugman explaining that Obamacare doesn’t destroy jobs, but it does give people more freedom to work fewer hours without fear of losing access to the health care system:

The basic point here is that we started with a system in which incentives were already strongly distorted by the deductibility of employer-paid health insurance premiums. This was a significant benefit, but one in general available only to full-time workers….What we had here was [] a system in which subsidies were available only if you worked more than a certain amount, surely leading some people to work more than they would have wanted to otherwise.

And that’s not a hypothetical — I know a fair number of people in just that situation. I also know some people in “job lock” — feeling trapped in their current job because they aren’t sure they could get implicitly subsidized health insurance if they moved.

Plenty of other liberals have made similar points, and there’s no question that there’s a kernel of truth to it. Someone who’s 62 might retire early because they know they can buy health insurance while they wait for Medicare to kick in. A young worker who wants to start up her own company might be more likely to do it knowing that she can still get coverage for a pre-existing condition. People who lose their jobs might hold out longer for good replacements if they know they can continue to get affordable health coverage while they look.

But the CBO report was pretty clear that this is not really the main channel by which Obamacare reduces employment. It mostly reduces total hours of employment among the poor, which is why it estimates that employment will go down 2 percent but total compensation will only go down 1 percent. And the channel for this reduction is straightforward: workers lose Obamacare subsidies as their incomes go up, which makes it less attractive to work more hours. For instance, if you go from 135 percent of the poverty line to 140 percent of the poverty line—something that could happen by the addition of a mere two or three hours of work a week—you might lose access to Medicaid.

More generally, the problem is that Obamacare subsidies decline smoothly as your income goes up. Here’s an example. If you and your partner earn $10 per hour and your family income is $30,000, you’ll pay about $1,250 out of pocket for health insurance. Subsidies cover the rest. But if you work an extra six hours a week and increase your income to $33,000, your premium cost goes up to about $1,600. That’s not a huge difference, but it means that effectively you’re only making $8.80 for each of those extra hours you work. At the margins, there will always be a few people who decide that’s not worth it, and will decide to keep their old hours. That’s especially true since their family now has health coverage and doesn’t have to worry quite so much about catastrophic expenses.

You can decide for yourself whether this is good or bad. In any case, it’s not something unique to Obamacare. It’s a feature of every means-tested welfare program ever. And it’s the main reason that employment will decline. Not because of early retirees or folks who are now free to tell their bosses to take this job and shove it. It’s mainly because it will cause a certain number of poor people to decide that working extra hours doesn’t pay enough to be worth it.

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Let’s Get Our Obamacare Story Straight, Folks

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How Did the Media Blow It So Badly on Yesterday’s CBO Report?

Mother Jones

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Yesterday the CBO released a long-term budget analysis that included a chapter about the effect of Obamacare. Among other things, the report concluded that in 2017 and beyond, it would have the effect of reducing employment by about 2 million jobs. This produced a gigantic raft of misleading headlines—some from outlets like Fox News, of course, but also from a wide variety of mainstream news sources. Among many others, Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post then explained what the CBO report really meant. Erik Wemple tells the story:

For a while Tuesday morning, the Internet was hopping with job-killing hype, when in fact the truth was vastly different. Obamacare’s impact, the CBO concluded, would lessen the supply of labor by encouraging certain folks not to work: “The estimated reduction stems almost entirely from a net decline in the amount of labor that workers choose to supply, rather than from a net drop in businesses’ demand for labor, so it will appear almost entirely as a reduction in labor force participation and in hours worked. . . .”

For someone approaching retirement, notes Kessler, Obamacare could well mean that they needn’t hold onto a bad job just to keep health insurance. That’s a far different dynamic from job-killing.

To illustrate just how the media had handled the CBO study, Kessler’s post included a number of headlines harvested from the Internet this morning, amid a backlash highlighting the finer points of the CBO report. In some cases, headline changes ensued; in others, news outlets stuck to their original phrasing. Below, we chronicle some of the action….

This is a debacle. I came into this story pretty cold, reading about the CBO report and then clicking on a link to take a look at it. At the time, I hadn’t read any news accounts, so I just scrolled down to the chapter on Obamacare and spent about ten minutes browsing through it. And here’s the thing: the CBO’s conclusions were crystal clear. The report explained in simple language what effect Obamacare was likely to have and what channels it worked through. It even had a handy bullet list showing the most important causes of lower employment.

And yet, lots of reporters and headline writers got it wrong. It’s crazy. This is policy 101, not some deeply technical report that you need a data sherpa to understand. Obamacare doesn’t kill jobs. It makes people more secure and thus less likely to keep a job they don’t want—or to work more hours than they need to just to stay eligible for health insurance. It also, like all means-tested programs, provides a modest disincentive for poor people to work more hours, since extra income will be accompanied by lower subsidies.

This is easy stuff. How is it that so many folks blew it? Obviously Fox News deliberately wanted to put the worst spin possible on this report. But why did everyone else go along? What’s the deal here?

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How Did the Media Blow It So Badly on Yesterday’s CBO Report?

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Lead and Crime: It’s a Brain Thing

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When I wrote my big piece last year about the connection between childhood exposure to lead and rates of violent crime later in life, one of the big pushbacks came from folks who are skeptical of econometric studies. Sure, the level of lead exposure over time looks like an inverted U, and so does the national rate of violent crime. But hey: correlation is not causation.

I actually addressed this in my piece—twice, I think—but I always felt like I didn’t address it quite clearly enough. The article spent so much time up front explaining the statistical correlations that it made the subsequent points about other evidence seem a bit like hasty bolt-ons, put there mainly to check off a box against possible criticism. That’s not how I intended it,1 but that’s how it turned out.

For that reason, I’m pleased to recommend Lauren Wolf’s “The Crimes Of Lead,” in the current issue of Chemical & Engineering News. It doesn’t ignore the statistical evidence, but it focuses primarily on the physiological evidence that implicates lead with higher levels of violent crime:

Research has shown that lead exposure does indeed make lab animals—rodents, monkeys, even cats—more prone to aggression. But establishing biological plausibility for the lead-crime argument hasn’t been as clear-cut for molecular-level studies of the brain. Lead wreaks a lot of havoc on the central nervous system. So pinpointing one—or even a few—molecular switches by which the heavy metal turns on aggression has been challenging.

What scientists do know is that element 82 does most of its damage to the brain by mimicking calcium. Inside the brain, calcium runs the show: It triggers nerve firing by helping to release neurotransmitters, and it activates proteins important for brain development, memory formation, and learning. By pushing calcium out of these roles, lead can muck up brain cell communication and growth.

On the cell communication side of things, lead appears to interfere with a bunch of the neurotransmitters and neurotransmitter receptors in our brains. One of the systems that keeps popping up in exposure experiments is the dopamine system. It controls reward and impulse behavior, a big factor in aggression. Another is the glutamate system, responsible in part for learning and memory.

On the brain development side of things, lead interferes with, among other things, the process of synaptic pruning. Nerve cells grow and connect, sometimes forming 40,000 new junctions per second, until a baby reaches about two years of age. After that, the brain begins to prune back the myriad connections, called synapses, to make them more efficient. Lead disrupts this cleanup effort, leaving behind excess, poorly functioning nerve cells.

“If you have a brain that’s miswired, especially in areas involved in what psychologists call the executive functions—judgment, impulse control, anticipation of consequences—of course you might display aggressive behavior,” says Kim N. Dietrich, director of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Cincinnati College of Medicine….“Overall, the evidence is sufficient that early exposure to lead triggers a higher risk for engaging in aggressive behavior,” says U of Cincinnati’s Dietrich. “The question now is, what is the lowest level of exposure where we might see this behavior?”

There’s more, including a number of items I didn’t include in my article. The whole thing is worth a read if you’d like to learn a bit more than my piece covered about the brain science behind lead and crime.

1So why did I write it the way I did? No good reason, really. Partly it’s because I told the story chronologically, and the really compelling parts of the brain science story are fairly recent. Partly it’s because it just seemed to be easier to explain things doing it in the sequence I did it.

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Lead and Crime: It’s a Brain Thing

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Report: Guards May Be Responsible for Half of All Prison Sexual Assaults

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This story first appeared on the ProPublica website.

A new Justice Department study shows that allegations of sex abuse in the nation’s prisons and jails are increasing–with correctional officers responsible for half of it–but prosecution is still extremely rare.

The report, released today by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, takes data collected by correctional administrators representing all of the nation’s federal and state prisons as well as many county jails. It shows that administrators logged more than 8,000 reports of abuse to their overseers each year between 2009 and 2011, up 11 percent from the department’s previous report, which covered 2007 and 2008.

It’s not clear whether the increase is the result of better reporting or represents an actual rise in the number of incidents.

Allen Beck, the Justice Department statistician who authored the reports, told ProPublica that abuse allegations might be increasing because of growing awareness of the 2003 Prison Rape Elimination Act.

“It’s a matter of speculation, but certainly there’s been a considerable effort to inform staff about the dangers of sexual misconduct, so we could be seeing the impact of that,” said Beck.

The survey also shows a growing proportion of the allegations have been dismissed by prison officials as “unfounded” or “unsubstantiated.” Only about 10 percent are substantiated by an investigation.

But even in the rare cases where there is enough evidence to prove that sexual abuse occurred, and that a correctional officer is responsible for it, the perpetrator rarely faces prosecution. While most prison staff shown to be involved in sexual misconduct lost their jobs, fewer than half were referred for prosecution, and only 1 percent ultimately got convicted.

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Report: Guards May Be Responsible for Half of All Prison Sexual Assaults

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The Gap Between Private and Public Sector Workers Can’t Keep Growing Forever

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From the New York Times:

President Obama plans to sign an executive order requiring that janitors, construction workers and others working for federal contractors be paid at least $10.10 an hour, using his own power to enact a more limited version of a policy that he has yet to push through Congress.

I wonder how this plays out politically? On the one hand, public support for a higher minimum wage is very broad. On the other hand, this reinforces the widening gap between private sector workers and those who are paid (directly or indirectly) by taxpayer dollars. One side watches its wages stagnate and its standard of living drop, while its taxes are used to fund ever higher wages for the lucky few working for the government.

It’s not clear how this is going to play out on the broader political stage. There’s already been a backlash against unionized state and local workers, who have seen their wages and pensions increase during the recession, while the taxpayers who fund them have seen their wages drop significantly during the same period. But how does this story end? With voters rebelling against higher wages for government workers? Or with voters rebelling against the miserly wages of the private sector? I don’t know. But at some point, something’s got to give.

UPDATE: I didn’t get into the comp details in this post, so let me just add a little bit here. My read of the evidence is that, as of a few years ago, government workers at low and mid-range pay levels were generally (but not universally) better compensated than similar private sector workers. The gap was small, but real, and over the past several years it’s almost certainly increased.

The story is different at higher wage levels. Executives, doctors, lawyers, scientists, and so forth are paid quite a bit better in the private sector than they are in government jobs.

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The Gap Between Private and Public Sector Workers Can’t Keep Growing Forever

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