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Obama’s Economic Performance Is Even Better Than It Looks

Mother Jones

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Paul Krugman presents us today with an updated version of his chart showing private employment gains during the Obama administration compared to the Bush administration:

But Obama’s performance is even better than it looks. Here’s an updated version of my chart showing total government expenditures for both the Bush and Obama administrations measured since the end of the recessions they inherited:

Bush inherited a mild recession and got a huge fiscal boost. Obama inherited a deep recession and got a huge fiscal headwind. Even so, Obama’s employment performance has been far better than Bush’s.

As it happens, I don’t think presidents have a dramatic effect on the economy. But they have some. John McCain wouldn’t have fought for stimulus spending or extensions of unemployment insurance. He would probably have appointed more conservative members of the Fed, who might have tightened monetary policy sooner. He would have insisted on keeping the portion of the Bush tax cut that goes to the rich.

So Obama deserves some of the credit for this. George Bush squandered his political capital on tax cuts for the wealthy and soft regulation of Wall Street. We saw the results of that. Obama spent his political capital on stimulus and health care and the social safety net. The result has been a sustained recovery despite a net decrease in government spending over the past six years. Not bad.

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Obama’s Economic Performance Is Even Better Than It Looks

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Congress’ Fix for Puerto Rico Comes With Huge Strings Attached

Mother Jones

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Earlier this week, congressional Republicans introduced two bills designed to help Puerto Rico cope with its unsustainable $72 billion debt obligation. Both pieces of legislation—introduced in the House by Rep. Sean Duffy (R-Wisc.) and in the Senate by Sens. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa)—included language that would create a federally-appointed oversight board to control the island’s finances. The House bill also included provisions that would permit Puerto Rico’s cities and publicly-owned institutions to restructure debt under federal bankruptcy law.

While the island’s legislators and activists have long wanted bankruptcy protection, the creation of such a powerful oversight board immediately prompted a strong and negative reaction among the island’s politicians and activists.

“The bill introduced by Chairman Hatch imposes a federally-appointed board that would have virtually total control over financial decision-making in Puerto Rico, which is unwarranted and unacceptable,” Rep. Pedro Pierluisi, the island’s non-voting representative to Congress, told Mother Jones. Pierluisi said both bills’ version of a federal oversight board were too heavy-handed, and that he would work with Congressional leaders to craft the “level of federal control so that it is fair and proportional.”

On Jan. 1, Puerto Rico must come up with $957 million in interest payments, which would be difficult given the current financial pressures. Congressional intervention would probably be attached to the omnibus spending bill, which is likely to be voted on by December 16. Pierluisi, the island’s governors, and others have asked Congress for months to change the law that prohibits Puerto Rico from restructuring debts under federal bankruptcy law. They’ve also asked for equitable treatment under federal spending programs like Medicaid, but so far Congress has been unwilling to act.

“As a result of our pressure, this issue is being discussed and debated at the highest levels of the U.S. government,” he said. “That in itself is a remarkable achievement for a territory that is usually ignored or an afterthought in Washington.” He’s hopeful that a deal can be reached by Wednesday of next week.

Just before the legislation was introduced, Pierluisi said on the House floor that along with years of financial mismanagement locally, the problems Puerto Rico faces are at least as much due to the US’ colonial relationship with the island. He called the situation a “national disgrace.”

Puerto Rico Gov. Alejandro García Padilla told Puerto Rico’s main newspaper Friday that the financial oversight plan was just the beginning of negotiations, and that any financial oversight board would need to respect Puerto Rico’s political autonomy.

But Nelson Denis, a journalist, author, and former New York state assemblyman who has long studied the Puerto Rico/US federal government relationship, pointed out that as currently written, the Senate version of the the financial oversight body creates an authority that has the power to make financial decisions for the island, conduct its own investigations, subpoena witnesses, file for administrative or criminal charges against island officials who don’t comply, and take out loans for which island taxpayers—not the US federal government—would be liable.

“This is where our ‘Commonwealth’ relationship to the US has gotten us,” wrote Denis, whose mother is Puerto Rican and who is also the author of War Against All Puerto Ricans, a book about the island’s struggle for independence and failed revolution. “A dictatorship in the Caribbean, created in Washington, operated from Wall Street, all disguised as a ‘management assistance authority.'”

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Congress’ Fix for Puerto Rico Comes With Huge Strings Attached

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The King of Beers Wants to Push Craft Brews out of Your Supermarket

Mother Jones

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Pity Anheuser-Busch InBev, the Belgian-owned behemoth responsible for such beloved US beers as Budweiser, Bud Light, and Michelob Ultra. When InBev bought US beer giant Anheuser-Busch back in 2008, the company accounted for 49 percent of the US beer market, the Wall Street Journal reported. Since then, its US market share has dipped to 45 percent. Since 2005, sales of its big domestic brands like Bud have dropped 5.7 percent, even as craft-beer sales have rocketed up 173.6 percent. What’s a transnational, industrial-scale maker of flavor-light, marketing-heavy brews to do?

The answer, according to the Journal: use its still-formidable US market heft to squeeze out those fast-growing craft-beer makers. Understanding AB InBev’s maneuver requires a bit of background. After Prohibition, the US government sought to limit the market power of brewers by imposing a three-tiered system on the industry. One set of firms would brew beer; another set would distribute it; and a third would retail it, either in bars or carryout stores. Much of that old regime has broken down—in many states, for example, small brewers can sell directly to the public through brewpubs. But in most states, distributors—the companies that move beer from breweries and stock retail outlets’ shelves and bars’ taps and bottle offerings—can’t be owned directly by brewers. â&#128;¨

To get around that restriction, megabrewers have for decades sought more or less exclusive agreements with nominally independent distributors. Today, the US beer market is dominated by AB InBev and rival MillerCoors, which together own about 80 percent of the market. Independent craft brewers account for 11 percent of the US market—and that’s growing rapidly, even though crafts tend to retail for $8 to $10 per six-pack, versus about $6 for conventional beers. Most distributors sell either InBev or MillerCoors brands as their bread and butter, the Journal reports, plus a smattering of independent craft brews. That’s why in supermarket beer coolers these days you’ll typically find a few national craft brews like Sierra Nevada, along with maybe a few local favorites, after you walk past towering stacks of Bud and Miller six-packs.

So AB InBev has launched a “new plan to reverse declining volumes” in the United States by offering sweet incentives for company-aligned distributors to restrict sales of craft beers and push more Bud Light and whatnot. Get this, from the Journal:â&#128;¨

The world’s largest brewer last month introduced a new incentive program that could offer some independent distributors in the U.S. annual reimbursements of as much as $1.5 million if 98% of the beers they sell are AB InBev brands, according to two distributors who requested confidentiality because they were asked not to discuss the plan. Distributors whose sales volumes are 95% made up of AB InBev brands would be eligible to have the brewer cover as much as half of their contractual marketing support for those brands, which includes retail promotion and display costs. AB InBev, which introduced the plan at a meeting of distributors in St. Louis, estimates participating distributors would receive an average annual benefit of $200,000 each.â&#128;¨

The beer giant plans to devote big bucks to the scheme—about $150 million next year, as part of a “three-year plan to restore growth in AB InBev’s most profitable market,” the United States, the Journal reports. â&#128;¨

And beyond pushing up the percentage of AB InBev products in the mix, the incentive plans place another restriction on the distributors who choose to take advantage of the offers: They can only carry craft brewers that produce less than 15,000 barrels or sell beer only in one state.â&#128;¨ Such a provision would put a hard squeeze on excellent, relatively large craft brewers like San Diego’s Stone, Northern California’s Sierra Nevada, and Colorado’s Oskar Blues. InBev’s new program is already having an impact, the Journal reports.

At least one distributor has dropped a craft brewer as a result of the incentive program. Deschutes Brewery President Michael Lalonde said Grey Eagle Distributing of St. Louis last week decided it will drop the Oregon brewery behind Mirror Pond Pale Ale because it “had to make a choice to go with the incentive program or stay with craft.”

All of this raises the question: Under US antitrust law, can a giant company legally throw around its weight like that? The answer may well be yes. Ricardo Melo, Anheuser-Busch’s vice president of sales strategy and wholesaler development, stressed to the Journal that the incentive program is voluntary—that is, distributors are free to decline the extra support and continue stocking as many craft brands as they want. But apparently, the company doesn’t think many distributors will turn down such a sweet deal. Currently, the Journal reports, just 38 percent of AB InBev-aligned distributors participate in the company’s incentive programs. The company “aims to double participation in three years behind the new rewards plan,” the article adds.

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The King of Beers Wants to Push Craft Brews out of Your Supermarket

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Tyrant Obama Issues Rule Creating Death Panels, No One Cares

Mother Jones

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This happened last Friday and I completely missed it:

Six years after legislation to encourage end-of-life planning touched off a furor over “death panels,” the Obama administration issued a final rule on Friday that authorizes Medicare to pay doctors for consultations with patients on how they would like to be cared for as they are dying.

The administration proposed the payments in July, touching off none of the rancor that first accompanied the idea during debate on the Affordable Care Act in 2009….“We received overwhelmingly positive comments about the importance of these conversations between physicians and patients,” Dr. Conway said. “We know that many patients and families want to have these discussions.”

Huh. It turns out that Republicans never really had any problem with this at all.1 I guess that whole “death panel” thing was just a big misunderstanding. The Wall Street Journal explains what happened:

Since 2010, legislation that would allow reimbursements to physicians for advance planning discussions has gained bipartisan support….The climate has changed in part because of lobbying and education campaigns by medical groups.

Yeah, that must be it. I’m glad we got that straightened out.

1Except for Sarah Palin, of course, who offered her familiar common-sense take: “Government needs to stay the hell out of our ‘end-of-life’ discussions,” she said in a long, um, commentary on Facebook. “I’m so angry at democrat and republican politicians who just rolled their eyes when I, and many others, rose up with warnings that each step forward taken by champions of this socialist program would jerk back two steps from every free American and our God-given rights.” Etc.

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Tyrant Obama Issues Rule Creating Death Panels, No One Cares

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"Employees Are Bitter" as Whole Foods Chops Jobs and Wages

Mother Jones

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Whole Foods Market co-CEO and co-founder John Mackey has never hidden his disdain for labor unions. “Today most employees feel that unions are not necessary to represent them,” he told my colleague Josh Harkinson in 2013. That same year, Mackey echoed the sentiment in an interview with Yahoo Finance’s the Daily Ticker. “Why would they want to join a union? Whole Foods has been one of Fortune‘s 100 best companies to work for for the last 16 years. We’re not so much anti-union as beyond unions.”

On September 25, the natural-foods giant gave its workers reason to question their founder’s argument. Whole Foods announced it was eliminating 1,500 jobs—about 1.6 percent of its American workforce—”as part of its ongoing commitment to lower prices for its customers and invest in technology upgrades while improving its cost structure.” The focus on cost-cutting isn’t surprising—Whole Foods stock has lost 40 percent of its value since February, thanks to lower-than-expected earnings and an overcharging scandal in its New York City stores.

Sources inside the company told me that the layoffs targeted experienced full-time workers who had moved up the Whole Foods pay ladder. In one store in the chain’s South region, “all supervisors in all departments were demoted to getting paid $11 an hour from $13-16 per hour and were told they were no longer supervisors, but still had to fulfill all of the same duties, effective immediately,” according to an employee who works there.

I ran that claim past a spokesman at the company’s Austin headquarters. “We appreciate you taking the time to reach out and help us to set the record straight,” he responded, pointing to the press release quoted above. When I reminded him that my question was about wage cuts, not the announced job cuts, he declined to comment.

Another source, from one of Whole Foods’ regional offices, told me the corporate headquarters had ordered all 11 regional offices to reduce expenses. “They’ve all done it differently,” the source said. “In some regions, they’ve reduced the number of in-store buyers—people who order products for the shelves.”

I spoke with a buyer from the South region who learned on Saturday that, after more than 20 years with the company, his position had been eliminated. He and other laid-off colleagues received a letter listing their options: They could reapply for an open position or “leave Whole Foods immediately” with a severance package—which will be sweetened if they agree not to reapply for six months. If laid-off employees manage to snag a new position that pays less than the old one did, they are eligible for a temporary pay bump to match the old wage, but only for a limited time.

Those fortunate enough to get rehired at the same pay rate may be signing up for more work and responsibility. At his store, the laid-off buyer told me, ex-workers are now vying for buyer positions that used to be handled by two people—who “can barely get their work done as it is.”

My regional office source told me that the layoffs and downscaling of wages for experienced staffers is part of a deliberate shift toward part-time employees. Whole Foods has “always been an 80/20 company,” the source said, referring to it ratio of full- to part-time workers. Recently, a “mandate came down to go 70/30, and there are regions that are below that: 65/35 or 60/40.” Store managers are “incentivized to bring down that ratio,” the source added.

Employees working more than 20 hours per week are eligible for benefits once they’ve “successfully completed a probationary period of employment,” the Whole Foods website notes. But some key benefits are tied to hours worked. For example, employees get a “personal wellness account” to offset the “cost of deductibles and other qualified out-of-pocket health care expenses not covered by insurance,” but the amount is based on “service hours.”

And part-time employees tend not to stick around. My regional source said that annual turnover rates for part-timers at Whole Foods stores approach 80 percent in some regions. According to an internal document I obtained, the national annualized turnover rate for part-time Whole Foods team members was more than triple that of full-timers—66 percent versus about 18 percent—in the latest quarterly assessment. “Whole Foods has always been a high-touch, high-service model with dedicated, engaged, knowledgeable employeesâ&#128;&#139;,”â&#128;&#139; the source said. “How do you maintain that, having to constantly train a new batch of employees?”

Of course, Whole Foods operates in a hypercompetitive industry. Long a dominant player in natural foods, it now has to vie with Walmart, Trader Joe’s, and regional supermarket chains in the organic sector. Lower prices are key to staying competitive, and in order to maintain the same profit margins with lower prices, you have to cut your expenditures. Whole Foods’ labor costs, according to my regional source, are equal to about 20 percent of sales—twice the industry standard.

It’s not unusual for a publicly traded company to respond to a market swoon by pushing down wages and sending workers packing. But Whole Foods presents itself as a different kind of company. As part of its “core values,” Whole Foods claims to “support team member employee happiness and excellence.” Yet at a time when the company’s share price is floundering and its largest institutional shareholder is Wall Street behemoth Goldman Sachs—which owns nearly 6 percent of its stock—that value may be harder to uphold.

Workers join unions precisely to protect themselves from employers that see slashing labor costs as a way to please Wall Street. “There’s a fear of unions coming in, because employees are bitter,” the regional-office source said. “People talk about it in hushed tones.”

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"Employees Are Bitter" as Whole Foods Chops Jobs and Wages

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The EPA Is Coming After Your Defeat Devices

Mother Jones

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If you’re using a defeat device on your car, you’d better remove it ASAP. New testing protocols are coming in the wake of the VW scandal:

The EPA is sending a letter to auto manufacturers to explain that it may test or require testing of vehicles in an environment that would resemble normal driving conditions, the official said.

….“We have to be concerned about whether or not there are other defeat devices out there that we have not been able to detect,” EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy said at an event hosted by The Wall Street Journal this week. “This was particularly difficult for us to detect. We got there.”

Sounds like more big-government bullying by the EPA to me. I expect Republicans to do the right thing and denounce this immediately.

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The EPA Is Coming After Your Defeat Devices

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Jeb Bush Has No Clue About Business Regulation

Mother Jones

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Jeb Bush today in the Wall Street Journal:

To understand what is wrong with the regulatory culture of the U.S. under President Obama, consider this alarming statistic: Today, according to the World Bank—not exactly a right-wing think tank—the U.S. ranks 46th in the world in terms of ease of starting a business. That is unacceptable. Think what the U.S. could be and the prosperity we could have if we rolled back the overregulation that keeps us from ranking in the top 10.

My goodness. That does sound unacceptable. Still, it never hurts to check up on these presidential candidates, does it? So let’s click the link.

Sure enough, the World Bank ranks the United States 46th in ease of starting a business. But there’s an asterisk next to that. Let’s scroll down and see what it says: “The rankings of economies with populations over 100 million are based on data for 2 cities.” Hmmm. It turns out the World Bank is ranking the US based on starting up a business in New York City. That seems to tip the scales a wee bit, no?

But let’s soldier on. New Zealand ranks first in starting a new business, so let’s see how they work their magic. Here’s the World Bank’s comparison:

So it takes half a day in New Zealand and four days in New York City. Really? Half a day to start up a new business? Maybe they’re not using the same definition of “starting” that I am. Let’s check out the details for New York City. Here they are:

Now I get it. This isn’t about getting a business up and running. It’s solely about registering a new business. And it’s got nothing to do with any of Obama’s regulations. It’s all about state and local stuff. The only part that’s federal is getting an EIN number, which is free and takes one day. I’m not sure what Jeb Bush thinks he’s going to do to streamline this.

Bottom line: this is completely meaningless. It’s a measure only of how long it takes to register a business, and it’s only for New York City. And even at that, it takes only four days and costs $750. This is not stifling American entrepreneurship.

But wait! There’s more. The World Bank does have a broader “Ease of Doing Business” rank that takes into account the things you need to do to get up and running: construction permits, electricity, credit, paying taxes, enforcing contracts, etc. As it happens, the bulk of this stuff is still state and local, and has nothing to do with Obama or the federal government. Still, let’s take a look since Jeb chose not to share it with us for some reason. Where does the US rank on this measure?

The World Bank has us in 7th place. We’re already in the top ten that Jeb is aiming for. Mission accomplished!

POSTSCRIPT: Jeb has many other statistics in his piece, and I’d take them with the same grain of salt as his World Bank numbers. He also promises that in his administration every regulation “will have to satisfy a rigorous White House review process, including a cost-benefit analysis.” Apparently he doesn’t realize that this is already the case. As for the outrageous regulations he promises to repeal on Day One, this would mostly just benefit big campaign donors, not the yeoman entrepreneurs he claims to be sticking up for. No big surprise there, I suppose.

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Jeb Bush Has No Clue About Business Regulation

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No, Bernie Sanders’ Domestic Policy Plan Doesn’t Really Cost $18 Trillion

Mother Jones

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The Wall Street Journal says Bernie Sanders’ domestic policy plan would cost $18 trillion over ten years. Is this true?

It depends on how you look at it. First, there’s a set of proposals that the Journal estimates would cost about $3.4 trillion. That’s not pocket change, but it’s about as much as Jeb Bush’s tax cut. The big difference is that Jeb’s tax cuts mostly benefit the rich, while Bernie’s proposals mostly benefit the poor and the middle class. You can decide for yourself which you prefer.

Then there’s the $15 trillion price tag for universal health care. Is this a fair estimate? It’s probably in the ballpark. Private health insurance accounted for about $1 trillion in spending last year, and assuming reasonable growth that will probably come to around $15 trillion over the course of a decade.

But here’s the thing: this is money we already spend. Right now, employers and workers pay insurance companies $1 trillion for health care. Under Bernie’s plan, we’d instead pay that money to the federal government. Generally speaking, this would be invisible to most of us. Behind the scenes, our dollars would flow to a different place, and that’s about it.

So the Sanders plan wouldn’t actually take money out of our pockets. It’s a wash. It needs to be evaluated instead on all the usual metrics. Would the government do a better job of holding down costs? Would government control distort market signals? Would innovation suffer? Would most of us have more choice in health care providers? Would more people be covered? Etc.

Bottom line: You should think of the Sanders plan as costing about $3.4 trillion. You may or may not like the idea of universal health care, but it wouldn’t have much impact on how much money you actually take home each week.

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No, Bernie Sanders’ Domestic Policy Plan Doesn’t Really Cost $18 Trillion

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Does Donald Trump Send His Own Tweets? An Investigation

Mother Jones

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Donald Trump tweets a lot. He’s pretty good at it too! Personally, I love his Twitter account. It’s a mix of insanity and self-promotion and insanity and, well, self-promotion. But it’s endearing!

I’ve always assumed that Trump sends his own tweets. This is not because Twitter is a holy place and everyone sends their own tweets, but his account tweets so many weird things that I figured he couldn’t have a professional ghost tweeter at the helm. That person would never let him send half the things he sends. But then a few weeks ago my colleague Ian Gordon pointed me to a Washington Post profile of his media handler, Hope Hicks, which had me in tears:

On his plane, Trump flips through cable channels, reads news articles in hard copy, and makes offhanded comments. He’s throwing out his signature bombastic, sometimes offensive tweets. Hicks takes dictation and sends the words to aides somewhere in the Trump empire, who send them out to the world.

Dictating is still tweeting in a sense, but it really isn’t the same. This means he’s not scrolling through his timeline, checking his mentions, having the full Twitter experience. He’s broadcasting.

Last night, however, the Wall Street Journal said that Trump is, in fact, tweeting:

Mr. Trump doesn’t use a computer. He relies on his smartphone to tweet jabs and self-promotion, often late into the night, from a chaise lounge in his bedroom suite in front of a flat-screen TV.

Now it’s possible that it’s a combination of both: Sometimes he dictates, and sometimes he tweets.

While this is an answer, it begs a new question: How much of his tweets are his? To figure this one out, we put on our social-media detective hats and took a trip to Twitonomy.com.

Since April 23, @realDonaldTrump has tweeted 3,197 times. (Twitter’s API limits how many tweets analytics tools can access, so we can’t go further back than that.)

Twitonomy

Twitonomy

A majority of those tweets (1,707) have come from Twitter for Android. Another 1,245 have come from Twitter.com. Ninety-nine have come from a BlackBerry, and another 99 have come from an iPhone.

Twitonomy

From the above WSJ article, we know Trump doesn’t use a computer, so Twitter.com is out. Those are being done by someone else. The question is: What smartphone is Trump using? Once upon a time, Trump made his dissatisfaction with the iPhone very clear when he demanded that Apple manufacture a larger screen. This is something Apple ended up doing with the iPhone 6 and the still larger iPhone 6+. It’s unclear if this enticed Trump back into the fold. There are some massive smartphones out there! Maybe he has a Galaxy Note 5.

An email to the Trump campaign was not immediately returned. But a second Washington Post article tells us that Trump does in fact tweet from an iPhone.

So, if that is accurate, only 3 percent of Donald Trump’s last 3,197 tweetsat mostactually came from his fingers. (Possibly less if one of his aides also uses an iPhone.) The rest were apparently dictated or, in the case of the Nazi image, sent out by an intern. He’s obviously a busy person (and old, at that), so I understand why he doesn’t send all his own tweets. But still, it takes some of the magic away.

Below are some more charts from Twitonomy about Trump’s tweets:

Twitonomy

Twitonomy

Twitonomy

Twitonomy

Twitonomy

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Does Donald Trump Send His Own Tweets? An Investigation

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Friday Cat Blogging – 4 September 2015

Mother Jones

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Like Hillary Clinton, we’ve been watching a lot of HGTV lately. This has inspired Marian to create a long list of renovation projects she’d like to do. It’s inspired me to wonder if literally everyone in the world wants an open-concept floor plan these days.

And one other thing: It’s also made it clear that most interior designers on TV are dog people. How do I know? Because they seem to be very fond of rectangular sinks in bathrooms. However, as we more refined types know, this is entirely unacceptable. Ovals fit the requirements of a properly outfitted household much better.

BONUS FEATURE IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: The prefecture of Hiroshima, in the cat-crazy country of Japan, has created the first cat’s-eye version of Google Street View. Check it out.

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Friday Cat Blogging – 4 September 2015

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