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Virginia’s Supreme Court Just Struck Down a Plan to Restore Voting Rights to 200,000 Felons

Mother Jones

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Virginia’s Supreme Court on Friday blocked Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s attempt to restore voting rights to more than 200,000 felons. The 4-3 ruling, which could have a significant impact on the potential swing state in November, comes three months after the Democratic governor issued an executive order to enfranchise felons who had completed their sentences and parole or probation as of April 22.

In May, Virginia Republicans sued the governor over the use of taxpayer money to make such an order, suggesting that the order would aid Democratic turnout in the general election. State Senate Majority Leader Thomas K. Normen, Jr. said in a statement at the time that McAuliffe had “overstepped the bounds of his authority and the constitutional limits on executive powers.” McAuliffe struck back, stating that the lawsuit would “preserve a policy of disenfranchisement that has been used intentionally to suppress the voices of qualified voices.”

The Virginia Supreme Court found that McAuliffe overstepped his clemency authority in granting 206,000 felons the right to vote through executive order and that it violated the state constitution.

“Never before have any of the prior 71 Virginia governors issued a clemency order of any kind—including pardons, reprieves, commutations, and restoration orders—to a class of unnamed felons without regard for the nature of the crimes or any other individual circumstances relevant to the request,” wrote Chief Justice Donald W. Lemons in the majority opinion.

“To be sure, no governor of this commonwealth, until now, has even suggested that such a power exists,” the justice wrote.

The court’s decision made Virginia “an outlier in the struggle for civil and human rights,” McAuliffe said in a statement Friday. He criticized Republicans’ lawsuit.

“I cannot accept that this overtly political action could succeed in suppressing the voices of many thousands of men and women who had rejoiced with their families earlier this year when their rights were restored,” he said, adding that he would “expeditiously sign” orders to restore voting rights to 13,000 felons. It was immediately unclear if the court’s order would affect McAullife’s plans to grant rights for those people.

You can read the judges’ opinions below:

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Virginia’s Supreme Court Just Struck Down a Plan to Restore Voting Rights to 200,000 Felons

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The Virginia Supreme Court Tried To Kill A Key Voting Rights Order—And This Democratic Governor Won’t Let Them

Mother Jones

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Virginia’s Supreme Court on Friday blocked Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s attempt to restore voting rights to more than 200,000 felons. The 4-3 ruling, which could have a significant impact on the potential swing state in November, comes three months after the Democratic governor issued an executive order to enfranchise felons who had completed their sentences and parole or probation as of April 22.

In May, Virginia Republicans sued the governor over the use of taxpayer money to make such an order, suggesting that the order would aid Democratic turnout in the general election. State Senate Majority Leader Thomas K. Normen, Jr. said in a statement at the time that McAuliffe had “overstepped the bounds of his authority and the constitutional limits on executive powers.” McAuliffe struck back, stating that the lawsuit would “preserve a policy of disenfranchisement that has been used intentionally to suppress the voices of qualified voices.”

The Virginia Supreme Court found that McAuliffe overstepped his clemency authority in granting 206,000 felons the right to vote through executive order and that it violated the state constitution. The ruling could affect the one in five African Americans who are disenfranchised as a result of a felony conviction in the state.

“Never before have any of the prior 71 Virginia governors issued a clemency order of any kind—including pardons, reprieves, commutations, and restoration orders—to a class of unnamed felons without regard for the nature of the crimes or any other individual circumstances relevant to the request,” wrote Chief Justice Donald W. Lemons in the majority opinion.

“To be sure, no governor of this commonwealth, until now, has even suggested that such a power exists,” the justice wrote.

The court’s decision made Virginia “an outlier in the struggle for civil and human rights,” McAuliffe said in a statement Friday. He criticized Republicans’ lawsuit.

“I cannot accept that this overtly political action could succeed in suppressing the voices of many thousands of men and women who had rejoiced with their families earlier this year when their rights were restored,” he said, adding that he would “expeditiously sign” orders to restore voting rights to 13,000 felons. It was immediately unclear if the court’s order would affect McAullife’s plans to grant rights for those people.

You can read the judges’ opinions here.

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The Virginia Supreme Court Tried To Kill A Key Voting Rights Order—And This Democratic Governor Won’t Let Them

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Supreme Court Deals Blow to Obama Immigration Program

Mother Jones

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The Supreme Court dealt a major blow to President Barack Obama’s effort to shield undocumented immigrants from deportation, upholding a lower court’s rejection of that program by deadlocking in a 4-4 split on Thursday. Read the full decision here:

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Supreme Court Deals Blow to Obama Immigration Program

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Postal Contraceptives Are the Future

Mother Jones

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When we last met, both the federal government and the Little Sisters of the Poor had submitted their homework assignments to the Supreme Court on the issue of health coverage for contraceptives. Should the Sisters be required to fill out a form saying they declined contraceptive coverage? That would be cooperating with evil. Should they be required to do nothing, with only their insurance company required to provide notification? That has problems too. Still, the briefs had been submitted and the court now had its second chance to do its job and decide the issue for good. Instead we got this:

The court punted the issue back to lower courts, and said its unanimous ruling “expresses no view on the merits of the cases.” In the unsigned opinion, the court emphasized: “In particular, the Court does not decide whether petitioners’ religious exercise has been substantially burdened, whether the Government has a compelling interest, or whether the current regulations are the least restrictive means of serving that interest.”

They have decided nothing. Nothing! Without Anton Scalia around, they’re flailing helplessly. Either they’re hopelessly deadlocked 4-4 and are buying time, or else they really need a foil to inspire them.

I do sort of wonder what’s going on here. I suppose it all has to do with self-insured entities, just like the feds warned. If, say, a Catholic hospital self insures and chooses not to provide contraceptive coverage, then it really doesn’t matter if they fill out a form or not. Who’s going to provide the contraceptives? There’s no separate entity to do it.

I’m curious: how does this work in other countries? They have Catholic hospitals, don’t they? And Catholic charities. And so forth. And health coverage is universal, and I imagine some (most?) countries cover contraceptives in their universal coverage. What’s the Catholic Church’s take on all this? Is the United States the only country they’re mad at?

So what’s my solution? The Post Office. Hear me out. There are lots of fans of postal banking out there. I keep asking why anyone thinks the Post Office is especially well suited to the task of banking, and the usual answer is that they have lots of buildings all over the country. I guess buildings are the main qualification for providing banking services. So why not postal contraceptives too? We could train some postal workers in each Post Office to become specialized contraceptive nurses, and then provide everything free of charge right there. Pills, IUDs, implants, whatever. Are you with me on this?

Originally posted here:

Postal Contraceptives Are the Future

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Supreme Court Punts on Contraceptive Mandate Case

Mother Jones

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It didn’t take long for the US Supreme Court to dispense with the most controversial reproductive rights case on the docket this year. In a surprising move on Monday, the court issued an opinion in Zubik v. Burwell, a challenge by several religious organizations to the contraceptive mandate in the Affordable Care Act. The opinion essentially preserves the contraceptive mandate without addressing any of the larger questions about the religious freedom rights of employers.

Religious organizations and orders including Little Sisters of the Poor, a group of nuns who care for the elderly, had objected to a requirement by the Obama administration requiring them to alert the government of their religious objections to providing contraceptive coverage to their employees. The notification would have triggered an accommodation in which the employers’ insurance company would have covered contraception independently, without involving the religious objectors. Little Sisters of the Poor and the other plaintiffs had argued that even notifying the government of their desire to opt-out would have violated their religious beliefs.

The court didn’t rule on the merits of the case and declined to say whether the opt-out notification violated religious freedom rights. Instead, it sent the cases back to the lower courts to work out agreements between the government and the religious employers that would allow employees to have contraceptive coverage in the manner required by Obamacare, without onerous paperwork and without violating the religious freedom of the employers.

The decision was a per curiam opinion, meaning it was unsigned and without a breakdown of the vote. But Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote a separate concurring opinion, joined by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, highlighting that the decision in no way validates the religious groups’ position, and that it was intended to preserve the contraceptive access of women who worked for those organizations.

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Supreme Court Punts on Contraceptive Mandate Case

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Chuck Grassley Is Making Sense

Mother Jones

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Sen. Chuck Grassley, who heads up the Judiciary Committee, took to the floor yesterday to criticize Chief Justice John Roberts, who says that politicized confirmation hearings have caused the public to believe the court itself is politicized. Now, Roberts made those comments two months ago, so I’m not quite sure what prompted Grassley to suddenly get worked up about them. Nonetheless, Grassley is taking a lot of heat for his crazy talk. Let’s listen in:

The Chief Justice has it exactly backwards. The confirmation process doesn’t make the Justices appear political. The confirmation process has gotten political precisely because the court has drifted from the constitutional text, and rendered decisions based instead on policy preferences….In fact, many of my constituents believe, with all due respect, that the Chief Justice is part of this problem.

….As the Chief Justice remarked, although many of the Supreme Court’s decisions are unanimous or nearly so, the Justices tend to disagree on what the Chief Justice called the ‘hot button issues.’ We all know what kinds of cases he had in mind. Freedom of religion, abortion, affirmative action, gun control, free speech, the death penalty, and others.

The Chief Justice was very revealing when he acknowledged that the lesser known cases are often unanimous and the ‘hot button’ cases are frequently 5-4.

But why is that? The law is no more or less likely to be clear in a ‘hot button’ case than in other cases. For those Justices committed to the rule of law, it shouldn’t be any harder to keep personal preferences out of politically charged cases than others….The explanation for these 5-4 rulings must be that in the ‘hot button’ cases, some of the Justices are deciding based on their political preferences and not the law.

That sounds…surprisingly reasonable. It was anger at Supreme Court rulings that turned confirmation hearings political, not the other way around. And Grassley is right that for truly impartial justices, the law shouldn’t be any harder to interpret in hot button cases than in more obscure cases. And yet, hot button cases are very often split along partisan lines.

Now, it’s worth noting a couple of things. First, Grassley’s beef with Roberts is precisely that he didn’t vote on partisan lines when he upheld Obamacare. So he’s not exactly on the moral high ground here. Second, the court has always been political. But for most of its history it was politically conservative and mostly confirmed Republican positions. That changed after World War II, and what conservatives are really upset about is that the Supreme Court now hands down both liberal and conservative rulings. They want it to go back to being an arm of the Republican Party.

So Grassley is hardly presenting a balanced picture here. But he’s a Republican partisan, so why would he? More generally, though, I’d say his view of the Supreme Court is pretty defensible, and certainly more accurate than Roberts’ view. I see no particular crazy talk here.

The Chief Justice was very revealing when he acknowledged that the lesser known cases are often unanimous and the ‘hot button’ cases are frequently 5-4.

But why is that?

The law is no more or less likely to be clear in a ‘hot button’ case than in other cases.

For those Justices committed to the rule of law, it shouldn’t be any harder to keep personal preferences out of politically charged cases than others.

In some cases, the Justices are all willing to follow the law. But in others, where they are deeply invested in the policy implications of the ruling, they are 5-4.

The explanation for these 5-4 rulings must be that in the ‘hot button’ cases, some of the Justices are deciding based on their political preferences and not the law.

– See more at: http://www.publicnow.com/view/F2FDFB07EA2C3F7479ECA11B451EC03E32E4545E?2016-04-06-02:30:30+01:00-xxx6292#sthash.7tuZH0HM.dpuf

As the Chief Justice remarked, although many of the Supreme Court’s decisions are unanimous or nearly so, the Justices tend to disagree on what the Chief Justice called the ‘hot button issues.’ We all know what kinds of cases he had in mind. Freedom of religion, abortion, affirmative action, gun control, free speech, the death penalty, and others.

The Chief Justice was very revealing when he acknowledged that the lesser known cases are often unanimous and the ‘hot button’ cases are frequently 5-4.

But why is that?

The law is no more or less likely to be clear in a ‘hot button’ case than in other cases.

For those Justices committed to the rule of law, it shouldn’t be any harder to keep personal preferences out of politically charged cases than others.

In some cases, the Justices are all willing to follow the law. But in others, where they are deeply invested in the policy implications of the ruling, they are 5-4.

The explanation for these 5-4 rulings must be that in the ‘hot button’ cases, some of the Justices are deciding based on their political preferences and not the law.

– See more at: http://www.publicnow.com/view/F2FDFB07EA2C3F7479ECA11B451EC03E32E4545E?2016-04-06-02:30:30+01:00-xxx6292#sthash.7tuZH0HM.dpuf

As the Chief Justice remarked, although many of the Supreme Court’s decisions are unanimous or nearly so, the Justices tend to disagree on what the Chief Justice called the ‘hot button issues.’ We all know what kinds of cases he had in mind. Freedom of religion, abortion, affirmative action, gun control, free speech, the death penalty, and others.

The Chief Justice was very revealing when he acknowledged that the lesser known cases are often unanimous and the ‘hot button’ cases are frequently 5-4.

But why is that?

The law is no more or less likely to be clear in a ‘hot button’ case than in other cases.

For those Justices committed to the rule of law, it shouldn’t be any harder to keep personal preferences out of politically charged cases than others.

In some cases, the Justices are all willing to follow the law. But in others, where they are deeply invested in the policy implications of the ruling, they are 5-4.

The explanation for these 5-4 rulings must be that in the ‘hot button’ cases, some of the Justices are deciding based on their political preferences and not the law.

– See more at: http://www.publicnow.com/view/F2FDFB07EA2C3F7479ECA11B451EC03E32E4545E?2016-04-06-02:30:30+01:00-xxx6292#sthash.7tuZH0HM.dpuf

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Chuck Grassley Is Making Sense

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Justice Alito Is Clueless About How Health Insurance Works. That’s a Big Problem for Women.

Mother Jones

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Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito has earned a reputation, fairly or not, that he doesn’t understand the reality of women’s lives. He’s been observed shaking his head and rolling his eyes at his female colleagues, particularly the venerable Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, when she read a dissent from the bench opposing his opinions in a pair of gender discrimination cases. The oral arguments in Zubik v. Burwell Wednesday probably did nothing much to improve that perception.

Alito is the author of the controversial 2014 decision in Hobby Lobby v. Burwell, in which the court held that a for-profit corporation could deny employees insurance coverage for contraception because of its religious beliefs. As part of the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, Congress required employers who provided their workers with health insurance to offer coverage for contraception at no cost. Hobby Lobby had objected to that requirement on the grounds that providing access to some contraceptives, such as IUDs—which the company’s owners insisted (wrongly) were abortifacients—violated their strongly held religious beliefs.

In his opinion in that case exempting Hobby Lobby from the contraceptive mandate, Alito promised the court’s ruling would have “precisely zero” impact on women and their ability to access free contraception because the Obama administration had provided a workaround for religious organizations, and that could be applied to Hobby Lobby, too. An organization merely had to alert the government of its religious objector status, and the government would work with its insurance companies to provide the mandated contraception coverage without the employer having to pay or otherwise get involved. That way, Alito suggested, women would still get their birth control, their employers would not compromise their souls, and everyone would win.

That workaround was at the center of the case the court heard Wednesday, after it was challenged by dozens of religious nonprofits, including the religious order, the Little Sisters of the Poor, and various Catholic universities. They allege that even the simple act of notifying the government of their religious objections to the contraceptive coverage would still enable that coverage to be provided, and would therefore make them complicit in sinful activities.

The case puts Alito in a bind, given that he specifically relied on the accommodation the nuns are challenging to justify his opinion in Hobby Lobby. If he were consistent, he’d end up voting with the liberals in this case and ruling that sending some paperwork to the government to ask for a religious exemption is not a particularly onerous burden on their religious freedom—a conclusion eight out of nine lower courts have reached.

But it was clear during Wednesday’s oral arguments that Alito’s loyalties to the Catholic Church and strong commitment to religious freedom were clearly dominating his reasoning. He appeared to be grasping for an alternative in which the religious groups could distance themselves even further from insurance coverage that might compromise their beliefs. He raised an idea proposed by the petitioners: Instead of having the religious organizations’ insurance companies provide contraceptive coverage, the government ought to offer contraception-only insurance plans, maybe on the federal health insurance exchanges.

“Suppose that it were possible for a woman who does not get contraceptive coverage under…a plan offered by a religious nonprofit to obtain a contraceptive-only policy free of charge on one of the Exchanges. Why would that not be a less restrictive alternative to the notification requirement?” he asked Solicitor General Donald Verrilli, who was arguing for the government. “Is it because these Exchanges are so unworkable, even with the help of a navigator?” he asked, oozing with irony.

Alito’s pointed question about the Affordable Care Act, which is responsible for creating the exchanges and which Alito voted twice to overturn, elicited laughs. With a bit of a rueful chuckle, Verrilli shot back that one obvious reason why such a plan wouldn’t work is that it would be illegal. No such insurance can be sold on the exchanges under federal law. But aside from that, creating separate contraceptive coverage as Alito suggested would defeat the very goal Congress outlined when it mandated the contraceptive coverage in the first place. Verrilli explained that overwhelming evidence shows that even small cost barriers to contraception keep women from using it, which in turn results in more unplanned pregnancies and abortions. Congress wanted women to be able to get contraception seamlessly, from their regular doctors and through their regular health insurance plans.

Having to go out and purchase a separate contraceptive plan—which he doubted any insurance company would offer anyway—would create huge headaches and additional barriers to women. “Consider this, please, from the perspective of the woman employee,” Verrilli told Alito. “She has a health plan from her employer. She goes to her doctor, her regular doctor. She may have a medical condition that makes pregnancy a danger for her. She may be one of the women…who needs contraception to treat a medical condition, or maybe she just wants the contraception that’s appropriate for her.” If the government adopted what Alito was proposing, he continued, “her regular doctor has to say to her, ‘Sorry, I can’t help you.'” The doctor would not only be prohibited from writing the prescription; she’d be unable to counsel her patient about her options because of the prohibitions on her employer-based insurance.

Alito was not persuaded. “Why do you assume that the doctor to whom the women would go for other services under the plan would be unwilling to provide those services under a separate plan that covers contraceptives?” he asked, suggesting that having another insurance plan was no more complicated than getting an additional card, as often occurs with dental or vision coverage.

It was the sort of question you might expect from someone who has had little experience with the world of private-sector health insurance. Except for a very brief stint at a private firm after law school, Alito has never worked in the private sector. He went from the US Attorney’s Office in New Jersey to the Reagan Justice Department to the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals to the US Supreme Court—a seamless stretch of federal employment, where he has had access to some of the best private health insurance of any group of Americans. Plans in the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program include a large, national network of doctors, protection against being charged extra for preexisting conditions, and unusual continuity of care. His questions during the arguments suggested that Alito has probably never worried about whether a doctor he wanted to see would take his insurance, much less encountered a physician who took no insurance at all because the paperwork simply had become too onerous.

A contraceptive-only insurance plan seems unwieldy on its face. Aside from the practical difficulties of Alito’s proposal, at least one amicus brief in the case indicates that his alternative would also be a huge violation of Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act because of the way it singles out women for disparate treatment in health care. Politically it’s also utterly unfeasible, as was his suggestion that such plans could be created if Congress offered to subsidize them at 115 percent of the cost. At a time when Congress and Republican state governments are trying to defund Planned Parenthood and shut down clinics that offer cheap contraception, it’s hard to imagine any Congress in the near future creating special subsidies to give women birth control plans, even if some elderly nuns and a few other religious groups don’t want to fill out a form.

Such practicalities didn’t seem to carry much weight with Alito. But he is consistent; Justice Ginsburg has repeatedly scolded him for being out of touch with the realities of women’s lives in previous discrimination and reproductive rights cases. Even so, women’s groups seemed fairly convinced that Alito would, for once, take their side in this case because of his opinion in Hobby Lobby. Before the oral arguments, Gretchen Borchelt, vice president of reproductive rights and health at the National Women’s Law Center, which filed a brief in the Zubik case, said in a press call, “It would be unacceptable for the Supreme Court to invalidate a provision it proposed just two years ago in Hobby Lobby.” Predicting that Justice Anthony Kennedy seemed a likely vote for the government, she declared, “We’re confident in a 5-3 decision here.”

Alito seemed intent on dashing those hopes. At the very least, he appeared ready to force the government to burden women with a more complicated, less effective means for accessing contraceptive coverage to prevent a very minor compromise of religious freedom. Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. seemed inclined to agree with him, at least in voting against the government’s position. And Kennedy expressed frustration with both sides of the case, leaving his critical swing vote completely unpredictable.

Fortunately for women, perhaps, the court is short a member right now, and even if Alito backpedals on his promises in Hobby Lobby and votes along with the other conservatives to defang the contraceptive mandate, the court is likely to deadlock 4-4 in the decision, which means the lower court rulings will stand. So women who work for religious organizations, including universities, in the eight federal appellate court circuits where the courts have ruled for the government in these cases, should be able to get free contraceptive coverage. But the women in 8th Circuit states—Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Arkansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota—which voted in favor of the religious groups, may have to wait until after the presidential election, when a new president may finally be able to appoint a ninth justice to the court, and the conflict gets resolved once and for all.

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Justice Alito Is Clueless About How Health Insurance Works. That’s a Big Problem for Women.

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Merrick Garland Was Accused of Protecting a Judge Charged With Ethics Violations

Mother Jones

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President Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, DC Circuit Court of Appeals Chief Judge Merrick Garland, is widely respected by members of both parties. His judicial background is largely devoid of controversy over hot-button issues such as abortion or gay marriage. But two years ago, he angered civil rights groups, death penalty lawyers, and other legal observers who accused him and his colleagues on the DC Circuit of protecting a fellow judge accused of serious ethical lapses.

The episode dates back to 2014, when Garland was in charge of ruling on an ethics complaint against Texas Judge Edith Jones of the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals.

A Reagan appointee, Jones is an archconservative darling of the right-wing Federalist Society and a favorite of presidential candidate Ted Cruz, who has pointed to her as the kind of Supreme Court justice he’d nominate. In 2006, the Texas Observer dubbed her one of the “worst judges in Texas,” in part because of her decision to uphold the death sentence for a man whose lawyer slept through the entire trial. She has been especially hostile to sexual harassment claims, once dismissing such lawsuits in a Federalist Society speech as “petty interoffice disputes.” In one case, a woman provided graphic testimony about the severe sexual harassment and abuse she’d suffered at work, saying that a male co-worker had pinched her butt with a pair of pliers and another had pinched her breast. Jones replied to the latter charge, “Well, he apologized.”

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Merrick Garland Was Accused of Protecting a Judge Charged With Ethics Violations

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These Right-Wing Groups Are Gearing Up for an Onslaught on Obama’s Supreme Court Nominee

Mother Jones

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On Wednesday, President Barack Obama picked Merrick Garland, a federal court of appeals judge with a stellar and moderate reputation, to replace the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. His strategy was obvious: present obstructionist Republicans with a nominee with little or no baggage. But Senate Republicans immediately signaled that the Garland nomination would not change their calculations—that the fight to block any nominee was on. And prior to Obama’s announcement, conservative groups were already gearing up for this crusade, perhaps the last big battle of the right’s war on Obama.

The political players leading this effort are the usual suspects. The Republican National Committee had already announced plans to oppose Obama’s nominee—whoever it might be—and to run ads in competitive Senate races in Colorado, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire and elsewhere, in addition to targeting Democratic members of the Senate Judiciary Committee. The tea party group FreedomWorks is rallying grassroots voters to the cause. On the other side of political spectrum, liberal advocacy groups such as the Alliance for Justice and People for the American Way are girding for a massive fight.

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These Right-Wing Groups Are Gearing Up for an Onslaught on Obama’s Supreme Court Nominee

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This Is the Real Reason the GOP Should Worry About Merrick Garland

Mother Jones

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Merrick Garland has spent the last decade in the weeds of some of the most contentious clean-air cases in history—and he’s consistently come out on the side of the environment and against big polluters.

Garland, the DC Circuit Court chief judge who is President Barack Obama’s pick to replace Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court, faces a steep climb to confirmation in the face of fierce opposition from Senate Republicans.

But if Garland makes it to the Supreme Court, the battle over Obama’s flagship climate regulations will likely be one of his first big cases. That policy, known as the Clean Power Plan, aims to slash the nation’s carbon footprint by restricting greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. The Environmental Protection Agency built the plan on a provision of the Clean Air Act that allows it to set emissions standards for existing “stationary” sources (i.e., power plants, rather than, say, cars) and then leave it up to each state to choose how to reach that standard. The rule was immediately challenged by two dozen coal-reliant states, which have argued that it oversteps EPA’s legal authority because it applies to the whole electricity system rather than to individual power plants. Shortly before Scalia’s death, the Supreme Court voted 5-to-4 to put the plan on hold while Garland’s current colleagues in the DC Circuit Court weigh its legality.

The climate regulations will likely wind up in front of SCOTUS sometime next year. So, Garland’s record on cases involving the Clean Air Act—which many legal experts see as the world’s single most powerful piece of environmental law—is a helpful guide for how he might rule. Garland once described the Clean Air Act as “this nation’s primary means of protecting the safety of the air breathed by hundreds of millions of people.”

Garland brings a very different perspective to the bench than Scalia, says Pat Parenteau, a former director of Vermont Law School’s Environmental Law Center. Whereas Scalia was famous for his strict, literalist interpretation of the law, Parenteau says Garland tends to focus on the real-world outcome of his cases, an approach that could make him more likely to accept the administration’s Clean Power Plan arguments.

“In a close case, with Garland on the bench, the Clean Power Plan’s chances of winning go way up,” he said.

A review of two of Garland’s recent Clean Air Act rulings sheds some additional light:

White Stallion Energy Center v. EPA: In 1990, Congress amended the Clean Air Act to require that the Environmental Protection Agency research how to cut down on mercury and other toxic air pollutants spewing out of coal- and oil-fired power plants. After more than a decade of false starts, the EPA finally issued a mercury rule in 2012 and was hit with a suit from industry groups charging that the agency hadn’t considered how much mercury controls on power plants would cost. The lead plaintiff, White Stallion, was a proposed coal-fired power plant in Texas that was ultimately canceled but whose name remained on the suit.

Garland joined the majority opinion, in April 2014, upholding the mercury rule. The majority found that, for one thing, the EPA did consider the costs ($9.6 billion per year, by EPA’s estimate, in return for $37-90 billion per year in public health benefits). Regardless, the majority found that the cost to industry was never meant to be a deciding factor when EPA writes air pollution regulations:

For EPA to focus its “appropriate and necessary” determination on factors relating to public health hazards, and not industry’s objections that emissions controls are costly, properly puts the horse before the cart, and not the other way around as petitioners and our dissenting colleague urge.

As Ann Carlson, an environmental law scholar at UCLA, wrote in a recent blog post, the White Stallion case illustrates that Garland shows “significant deference to EPA both in its interpretation of ambiguous language in the Clean Air Act and in its technical determinations about how to craft regulations.” In other words, Garland is inclined to trust that the EPA’s experts know what they’re doing.

Later, Garland stood by the mercury rule a second time. Following the DC Circuit Court decision, the legal battle continued to the Supreme Court, which ultimately sent the rule back to the EPA with instructions to recalibrate the agency’s cost calculations. The rule is still stuck at that stage today, but Garland ruled that in the meantime, the rule should stand—essentially the opposite of how SCOTUS treated the Clean Power Plan.

The rule “wasn’t jettisoned during the bouncing back and forth,” said Pat Gallagher, director the environmental law program at the Sierra Club. “This is the pragmatic sensibility of Garland. He isn’t bringing ideology to the table. He’s not on the war path to show that the EPA is usurping powers.”

American Corn Growers Association v. EPA: In this case, Garland was the lone dissenter when the court threw out regulations from the EPA meant to reduce haze in national parks. This case in particular is a useful proxy for the Clean Power Plan because both regulations follow the same model (the EPA sets a standard and lets states decide how to implement it). In both cases, industry groups objected to how the EPA categorized polluters. In the haze case, Garland once again sided with the EPA.

Garland’s dissenting opinion also showed that he is more interested in helping the executive branch enforce the laws created by Congress than in searching out hair-splitting details that can be used to tie the administration’s hands, Parenteau said: “Garland is going to try to interpret a statute to be consistent with the purposes of the statue.” In other words, like in the White Stallion case, he generally trusts that EPA knows the best way to achieve the ends of the Clean Air Act. And he’s disinclined to second-guess the agency’s methods as long as they seem to accomplish what Congress intended.

“In the Clean Air Act, Congress declared a national goal of restoring natural visibility in the country’s largest national parks and wilderness areas,” Garland wrote. Overturning the haze regulation “will prevent the achievement of Congress’ goal.”

That doesn’t mean he automatically caves to the EPA; in fact, Garland has a record of ruling against the agency when he thinks it hasn’t done enough to enforce the law. In American Farm Bureau Federation v. EPA, he ruled that the agency hadn’t gone as far as the Clean Air Act requires to regulate airborne particulate matter. And in Sierra Club v. EPA, he found that the EPA had tried to let states circumvent the agency’s own regulations on ozone.

“Garland defers to the agency scientists as long as the reasoning looks sound,” Gallagher said. But, “if they are hiding the ball, he will dig in and ferret that out.”

That adds up to good news for the Clean Power Plan.

“It’s not a slam dunk, because EPA is using a provision that wasn’t designed to confront climate change,” Parenteau said. But the Clean Power Plan “is the most carefully crafted and supported plan I think EPA has ever produced. Garland might change the very dynamic of the situation.”

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This Is the Real Reason the GOP Should Worry About Merrick Garland

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