Tag Archives: syria

Hillary Clinton’s Email Scandal Continues to Dribble Away

by ReedFreeman693 Posted on March 5, 2016

Mother Jones

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Here’s the latest on classified information being sent via email at the State Department:

The State Department has removed from its unclassified electronic archives a dozen sensitive emails sent to the personal accounts of former secretary of state Colin L. Powell and the staff of his successor, Condoleezza Rice, according to a memo released Friday by the agency’s watchdog….None of the messages was marked as classified or secret at the time it was sent, but the department’s inspector general, Steve Linick wrote the emails may have contained “potentially sensitive material” because of the subject matter.

Powell has said he has reviewed the messages and disagrees with a State Department decision to retroactively classify them. “I do not see what makes them classified,” he said.

Hillary Clinton probably sent a lot more emails the Powell, so she ended up with more emails retroactively being classified. Plus the CIA is apparently obsessed with pretending that the US drone program is a deep, dark secret. As usual with Clinton “scandals,” this one is dribbling away to nothing in the light of day, and would undoubtedly dribble a lot faster if any of us could actually see the emails. It’s an election season, so none of this will convince Republicans that there’s nothing of any consequence here, but there’s nothing of any consequence here. It’s just another boneheaded excrescence of the Benghazi pet rock.

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Hillary Clinton’s Email Scandal Continues to Dribble Away

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Explaining Donald Trump’s Dick

by RobbinBravo Posted on March 5, 2016

Mother Jones

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Why did Donald Trump inexplicably defend the size of his penis in Thursday’s debate? Because he’s unnaturally sensitive about it? Because, as Jeet Heer suggests, it’s part of a venerable history of monarchs and presidents? Because Hillary Clinton would be the first penis-free president, so it’s a good way of contrasting himself?

Yes to all of the above, I suppose. Plus the fact that Trump is a self-centered boor. But this is all background noise. The real reason, which Trump understands instinctively, is simpler.

Trump’s supporters love him not so much for his policies but for his promise of toughness. Without that, he’s nothing. And to his supporters, toughness is deeply tied up with virility and manliness. This includes all the affairs, the succession of young wives, the supermodels, and the fact that he brags endlessly about it. Most of his supporters don’t precisely approve of all this stuff, but they nonetheless admire it when it comes from someone so successful. If that’s what it takes to save the country, then that’s what it takes.

So Trump made it clear that his manliness is quite intact, thank you very much. This is, if you’ll pardon the pun, all part of the package. It’s true that Marco Rubio fired the first shot a few days earlier, but that never came up in the debate. Trump brought it up out of the blue. He wanted to bring it up.

Everyone in the press mocks him for this nationally televised display of crudeness, but Trump brought it up because he wanted to assure his supporters he was a tough guy. And I’ll bet it worked.

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Explaining Donald Trump’s Dick

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California’s Bullet Train Just Gets Better and Better

by DarnellWHSL Posted on March 4, 2016

Mother Jones

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California’s bullet train gets more appealing with every new business plan:

California will need to double down on support of the bullet train by digging deeper into the state’s wallet and accepting a three-year delay in completing the project’s initial leg, a new business plan for the 220-mph system shows.

….The new plan calls for completion of the entire system by 2029, one year later than under the old business plan. Once the initial system starts showing a profit, the business plan asserts, private investors would jump in with an estimated $21 billion, based on financial calculations.

….The 99-page plan and its backup technical documents again raise questions about service and speed. A sample operating schedule does not show any nonstop trains between Los Angeles and San Francisco. The fastest travel time between the cities would be 3 hours and 14 minutes, not the 2 hours and 40 minutes many people expect.

Yes, I’m sure private investors will be panting to invest, just like they’ve invested so much in iffy high-speed rail construction elsewhere in the world. They’ll be especially eager in another few years, when this project will undoubtedly be forecast to open around 2040 or so, and estimates of LA-SF travel time will be four hours. Who could say no?

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California’s Bullet Train Just Gets Better and Better

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Donald Trump’s Big Lie on Health Care

by ReganGoodell Posted on March 4, 2016

Mother Jones

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I realize that criticizing a Donald Trump policy is pointless, but Trump’s health care “plan” deserves a bit more attention. Say what you will about his immigration policies, but at least his written plan more-or-less matched his rhetoric. His health care plan doesn’t even come close. Here are its six proposals:

  1. Allow insurance companies to sell policies across state lines. Whatever you think of this idea, it only makes sense if you can truly buy a policy that’s regulated by another state. Ramesh Ponnuru: “But the plan says that people should be allowed to buy insurance out of state only ‘as long as the plan purchased complies with state requirements.’ That defeats the whole purpose of the reform, and means either that Trump is coming out for the status quo or that whoever wrote his plan garbled it.” Or that Trump has no idea what he’s talking about.
  1. Allow individuals to “fully deduct health insurance premium payments from their tax returns.” This may or may not be a good idea in concept, but implementing it as a deduction makes it meaningless for nearly everyone at the median wage or below. They already pay little or no income tax, so a deduction does them no good. This is why other Republicans have proposed doing this as a tax credit, which would benefit anyone. Even conservatives agree about this: “That’s not going to help,” said Joe Antos, a conservative health policy expert at the American Enterprise Institute.
  1. Allow individuals to use HSAs. Individuals have been allowed to set up HSAs since 2003. The only new wrinkle in Trump’s plan is that an HSA can be used by any family member. This is trivial.
  1. Price transparency. This is fine. It won’t do much to improve health care, but it’s a good idea.
  1. Block grant Medicaid. This would accomplish nothing except, probably, to make health care worse. States tend to do everything they can to use Medicaid dollars for non-health purposes, and giving them total control over Medicaid would only make this worse. Also, it would eliminate the automatic increase in Medicaid spending during recessions, when it’s needed most. Overall, this proposal would almost certainly result in less Medicaid spending and less effective Medicaid spending.
  1. Allow importation of prescription drugs. This is fine.

Trump has been extravagant in his promises about health care: “I would end Obamacare and replace it with something terrific, for far less money for the country and for the people.” He’s said that he would cover everyone. He’s said he would cover pre-existing conditions. He’s said he wouldn’t let people die in the streets. He’s said he would allow Medicare to negotiate drug prices.

His plan includes none of that. He just flatly hasn’t kept any of his promises. Instead he’s offered up something that looks like a fourth grader cribbed it from other Republican plans without really understanding what they said. Even by GOP standards—which is a very low bar—his health care plan offers virtually nothing of substance. It’s completely hollow.

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Donald Trump’s Big Lie on Health Care

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Tax Plan Showdown: Hillary Clinton vs. the Republicans

by jatsawdxmrzdw8 Posted on March 4, 2016

Mother Jones

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The Tax Policy Center has analyzed Hillary Clinton’s various tax proposals, which means we now have data for the top three Republican candidates and the top Democractic candidate: Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Clinton. Click the links for details. Or just look at the charts below for the nickel summary.

You don’t need to look very hard, do you? One of these things is not like the others. The Republicans all give middle-income taxpayers a tiny benefit as a sop to distract them from the humongous payday they give to the rich. Clinton basically leaves middle-income taxpayers alone and makes the rich pay a little more.

On the cost side, all of the supposedly fiscally conservative Republicans would blow a massive hole in the deficit. Clinton would actually make the deficit smaller.

Republicans will claim that their tax plans are designed to supercharge the economy and pay for themselves blah blah blah. This is BS, and they know it. They also claim they’ll slash spending. This is mostly BS too. On the other hand, Clinton says she’ll use the money from her tax plan to fund additional programs, which is entirely believable. This makes her plan deficit neutral. Basically, we have three fantasy plans and one realistic plan. The difference in fiscal responsibility is kind of mind-boggling, isn’t it?

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Tax Plan Showdown: Hillary Clinton vs. the Republicans

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Republicans Are Pushing Obama to Fill This Court…To Try Syrian War Crimes

by MatthiasFyo Posted on March 3, 2016

Mother Jones

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Yesterday, the House Foreign Affairs Committee passed a resolution accusing Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and his allies of committing war crimes. The resolution comes amid concerns from Republicans and some Democrats that the Obama administration—under pressure from Moscow—has all but abandoned its goal of regime change in Syria. It calls on the White House to use its influence at the United Nations to establish a Syrian war crimes tribunal.

“The government of Syria has engaged in widespread torture and rape, employed starvation as a weapon of war, and massacred civilians, including through the use of chemical weapons, cluster munitions, and barrel bombs,” the resolution asserts. It adds that “the vast majority of the civilians who have died in the Syrian conflict have been killed by the government of Syria and its allies,” including Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. As many as 470,000 Syrians have died so far in the conflict, and millions have been made homeless.

The resolution’s sponsor, Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.), who first introduced this bill in 2013, says that establishing a war crimes tribunal for Syria would force a stronger stance from Washington, make it more difficult for other countries to cooperate with the Syrian government, and could potentially lead to Assad’s ouster. “I have continued to ask Secretary Kerry and others in the Administration—they have never said no, but they haven’t said yes—about this idea of establishing a Syrian war crimes tribunal,” a frustrated Smith said at the resolution markup on Wednesday. The resolution passed through the committee on a voice vote.

The only dissenting voice at the hearing was that of Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), who claimed that Assad is helping fight ISIS, America’s real enemy. He was quickly shut down.

Republicans have generally been skeptical of international prosecutions of accused war criminals. In 2002, George W. Bush signed the the American Servicemembers Protection Act, which shields American personnel and allies from prosecution in the International Criminal Court. Yet this position has softened. In 2013, President Obama signed a bill that would make it easier for the United States to go after war criminals like warlord Joseph Kony; the measure was spearheaded by Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Rep. Ed Royce (R-Calif.) and former chairwoman Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.).

Smith’s approach would circumvent the ICC, which he chastised for only achieving two convictions in 14 years. His resolution would seek the creation of an ad hoc or regional tribunal. He pointed to similar tribunals in the former Yugoslavia (which convicted 67 people), Rwanda (26), and Sierra Leone (16). “Can a UN Security Council resolution establishing a Syrian war crimes tribunal prevail?” he asked. “I would respectfully submit yes.”

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Republicans Are Pushing Obama to Fill This Court…To Try Syrian War Crimes

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The US War on ISIS Is Costing a Fortune

by BrittanMondrago Posted on February 22, 2016

Mother Jones

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It’s been a year and a half since the United States launched Operation Inherent Resolve, unofficially declaring war on ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The numbers are already staggering: As of January 31, after 542 days of airstrikes, the cost of the campaign reached $6.2 billion, or about $480,000 for every hour of the campaign. And the expenses are set to grow: The Pentagon is asking for another $7.5 billion to continue battling ISIS—double the amount requested for 2016.

Beyond the money, the war itself is ramping up, including more airstrikes with fewer restrictions on civilian casualties and more Special Forces troops on the ground. The scope of the battle has also expanded to Afghanistan and Libya (where last Friday airstrikes hit an ISIS camp). And as plans are being drawn up for major battles to recapture the ISIS strongholds of Raqqa, Syria, and Mosul, Iraq, there are calls for more US troops to be deployed in combat or advisory roles.

As Operation Inherent Resolve continues to escalate, here’s a closer look at some of the stats behind America’s war on ISIS.

So far, 37,000 bombs and missiles have been dropped, and 20,000 ISIS fighters have been killed, according to the Pentagon. US-led airstrikes wiped out hundreds of oil infrastructure targets and a cash storage facility believed to have contained millions of dollars crucial to ISIS’ operations. The bombing has also taken a toll on civilians, though the actual numbers remain contentious.

US planes have dropped so many bombs and missiles on ISIS that the Air Force chief of staff has said it’s “expending munitions faster than we can replenish them.”

Officially, 3,650 American troops and contractors are currently involved in the campaign against ISIS. The actual number may be closer to 6,000.

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The US War on ISIS Is Costing a Fortune

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Quote of the Day: Donald Trump Was Against the Iraq War No Matter What He Actually Said at the Time

by LatashaGoldsmith Posted on February 19, 2016

Mother Jones

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From Donald Trump, asked on September 11, 2002, if he was in favor of invading Iraq:

Yeah…I guess so. I wish the first time it was done correctly.

That’s Donald being “loud and strong” against the Iraq War. For the record, his explanation is, yeah, he said it, but it was probably the first time anyone had asked him. But for sure he was against it a little later. Seriously. He was.

As you might expect, being confronted with this didn’t even cause him to break stride. He immediately segued into a lengthy rant about how he was totally opposed to the war and everyone knew it, there were all sorts of headlines, and it destabilized the whole Middle East, it was responsible for ISIS and Libya and, um, Syria, the biggest mistake ever in American history, and it was Obama’s fault too, just a disaster, and Saddam didn’t bring down the towers, it was probably the Saudis, and did I mention that it was a complete and total disaster? And I was against it. Totally.

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Quote of the Day: Donald Trump Was Against the Iraq War No Matter What He Actually Said at the Time

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The Prestigious World Press Photo Finalists Are Out And They Are Breathtaking

by MoniqueBSV Posted on February 18, 2016

Mother Jones

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Early each year, photographers submit their work to a slew of contests, but the most prestigious is the World Press Photo. Based in Amsterdam, the World Press Photo jury goes through thousands of images—almost 83,000 this year—to name the World Press Photo of the Year and recognize the best in different categories of photojournalism. It’s a long and sometimes grueling process. And no matter which photo is named Photo of the Year, vocal differences of opinions (if not outright controversy) in the photojournalism community often follow.

This year the jury named Australian photographer Warren Richardson‘s photo of a family crossing the Serbian-Hungarian border as the World Press Photo of the Year.

Below is a selection of winners in each of the categories. Congratulations to all the photographers.

World Press Photo of the Year and the first-place winner in the spot news, single-image category: A man passes a baby through the fence at the Serbia-Hungary border in Röszke, Hungary. Warren Richardson, World Press Photo

Spot news single image, second place: Demonstration against terrorism in Paris, after a series of five attacks occurred across the Île-de-France region, beginning at the headquarters for satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo. Corentin Fohlen/Divergence, World Press Photo

Spot news stories, first place: The aftermath of airstrikes in Syria Douma, a rebel-held city in a suburb of the capital Damascus, lies in the opposition bastion area of Eastern Ghouta and has been subject to massive regime aerial bombardment. The area has also been under a crippling government siege for nearly two years as part of a regime attempt to break the rebel’s hold in the region. Smoke rises from a building following reported shelling by Syrian government forces in Douma. Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP, World Press Photo

Spot news stories, second place: A wall of rock, snow, and debris slammed an Everest base camp in Nepal on April 25, 2015, killing at least 22 people and injuring many more. The avalanche was triggered by a powerful 7.8-magnitude earthquake that killed more than 8,000 people elsewhere in the country. Trekking guide Pasang Sherpa searches for survivors among flattened tents moments after the avalanche. Roberto Schmidt/AFP, World Press Photo

Spot new stories, third place: Syrians fleeing the war rush through broken-down border fences to enter Turkish territory illegally, near the Turkish border crossing at Akcakale in Sanliurfa province. Turkey said it was taking measures to limit the flow of Syrian refugees onto its territory after an influx of thousands more over the last days due to fighting between Kurds and jihadis. Under an “open-door” policy, Turkey has taken in 1.8 million refugees. Bulent Kilic/AFP, World Press Photo

General news single image, first place: A doctor rubs ointment on the burns of a 16-year-old Islamic State fighter named Jacob in front of a poster of Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, at a Y.P.G. hospital compound on the outskirts of Hasaka, Syria. Mauricio Lima, World Press Photo

General news stories, first place: Refugees arrive by boat near the village of Skala on Lesbos, Greece. Sergey Ponomarev for the New York Times, World Press Photo

General news stories, second place: A Syrian girl cries at a makeshift hospital in the rebel-held area of Douma, Syria. Abd Doumany/AFP, World Press Photo

General news stories, third place: Nepalese villages watch a helicopter picking up a medical team and dropping aid at the edge of a makeshift landing zone in Gumda, Nepal. Daniel Berehulak, World Press Photo

Contemporary issues single image, first place: Tianjin, a city in northern China, is shrouded in haze. Zhang Lei, World Press Photo

Contemporary issues single image, second place: Adam Abdel, 7, was severely burned after a bomb was dropped by a Sudanese government Antonov plane next to his family home in Burgu, Central Darfur, Sudan. Adriane Ohanesian, World Press Photo

Contemporary issues single image, third place: Lamon Reccord stares down a police sergeant during a protest following the fatal shooting of Laquan McDonald by the police in Chicago. John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune, World Press Photo

Contemporary issues stories, first place: A photo series portraying the plight of Talibes, boys who live at Islamic schools known as Daaras in Senegal. Under the pretext of receiving a Quranic education, they are forced to beg in the streets while their religious guardians, or Marabout, collect their daily earnings. They often live in squalor and are abused and beaten. Abdoulaye, 15, is a Talibe imprisoned in a room with security bars in Thies, Senegal, to keep him from running away. Mário Cruz, World Press Photo

Contemporary issues stories, second place: Migrants rescued off the Libyan coast gather on the deck of the Doctors Without Borders rescue ship and attend a service in Strait of Sicily, Mediterranean Sea. Francesco Zizola/NOOR, World Press Photo

Contemporary issues stories, third place: Although they hadn’t planned it, Emily and Kate, who live in Maplewood, New Jersey, got pregnant within weeks of each other through artificial insemination and in vitro fertilization, respectively. Their sons were born within four days of each other, and the couple embraced the challenge of raising the two babies at once. Sara Naomi Lewkowicz, World Press Photo

Sports single image, first place: The Czech Republic’s Ondrej Bank crashes during the downhill race of the Alpine Combined at the FIS World Championships in Beaver Creek, Colorado. Christian Walgram/GEPA Pictures, World Press Photo

Sports single image, second place: During the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) 2015 Mens Basketball Tournament game with Wichita State versus Indiana, Ron Baker shoots over Nick Zeisloft while Hanner Mosquera-Perea and Rashard Kelly battle for position at the CenturyLink Center in Omaha, Nebraska. Greg Nelson/Sports Illustrated, World Press Photo

Sports single image, third place: Members of the Neptun Synchro synchronized swimming team perform during a Christmas show in Stockholm, Sweden. Jonas Lindkvist, World Press Photo

Sports stories, first place: Players of an amateur hockey team in provincial Russia rest in in the locker room at halftime. Vladmir Pesnya, World Press Photo

Sports stories, second place: The Gris-gris Wrestlers of Senegal performing rituals at a tournament. The events resemble a festival and include dance performances, music, and wrestling shows. Christian Bobst, World Press Photo

Sports stories, third place: Erison Turay founded the Ebola Survivor’s Football Club to support survivors after 38 members of his family died. Tara Todras-Whitehill/Vignette Interactive, World Press Photo

Daily life single image, first place: Chinese men pull a tricycle in a neighborhood next to a coal-fired power plant in Shanxi, China. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images, World Press Photo

Daily life single image, second place: Indigenous Munduruku children play in the Tapajos river in the tribal area of Sawre Muybu, Itaituba, Brazil. Mauricio Lima, World Press Photo

Daily life single image, third place: Raheleh, who was born blind, stands behind the window in the morning in Babol, Mazandaran, Iran. She likes the warmth of the sunlight on her face. Zohreh Saberi/Mehrnews Agency, World Press Photo

Daily life stories, first place: Chilean, Chinese, and Russian research teams in Antarctica want to explore commercial opportunities that will arise once the treaties protecting the continent for scientific purposes expire. A priest looks on in the bell room, after a vigil at the Russian Orthodox Church of the Holy Trinity in Fildes Bay, Antarctica. Daniel Berehulak, World Press Photo

Daily life stories, second place: Tibetan Buddhists take part in the annual Bliss Dharma Assembly in Sichuan province, China. The last of four annual assemblies, the weeklong annual gathering marks Buddha’s descent from the heavens. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images, World Press Photo

Daily life stories, third place: A group of friends from Alemão, a slum in Rio de Janeiro, formed a media collective called Papo Reto, or “straight talk.” Social media allow them to report stories from their community that are otherwise ignored by traditional media. In this photo, Papo Reto collective members meet at Complexo do Alemao near a cableway station. Sebastián Liste/NOOR, World Press Photo

People single image, first place: A child is covered with a raincoat while she waits in line to register at a refugee camp in Preševo, Serbia. Matic Zorman, World Press Photo

People single image, second place: A mine worker takes a smoke break before going back into the pit. Miners in Bani, Burkina Faso, face harsh conditions and exposure to toxic chemicals and heavy metals. Matjaz Krivic, World Press Photo

People single image, third place: Portrait of a Syrian refugee family in a camp in Bekaa Valley, Lebanon, on December, 15, 2015. The empty chair in the photograph represents a family member who has either died in the war or whose whereabouts are unknown. Dario Mitidieri, World Press Photo

People stories, second place: Young girls between the ages of 7 and 11 are chosen every year as “Maya” for the “Las Mayas,” a festival derived from pagan rites celebrating the arrival of spring, in the town of Colmenar Viejo, Spain. The girls are required to sit still for a couple of hours at a decorated altar. Daniel Ochoa de Olza, World Press Photo

Nature single image, first place: A massive “cloud tsunami” looms over Bondi Beach in Sydney, Australia, as a sunbather reads, oblivious to the approaching cloud. Roahn Kelly/News Corp Australia, World Press Photo

Nature single image, second place: Divers observe and surround a humpback whale and her newborn calf while they swim around Roca Partida in Revillagigedo Islands, Mexico. Anuar Patjane, World Press Photo

Nature single image, third place: This image taken in Colima, Mexico, shows the Colima Volcano during a powerful night explosion with lightning, ballistic projectiles, and incandescent rock falls. Sergio Tapiro, World Press Photo

Nature stories, first place: In this and other images, the lives of wild orangutans are brought to light. Threats to these orangutans range from fires and the illegal animal trade to loss of habitat due to deforestation. Many orphan orangutans end up at rehabilitation centers. A Bornean orangutan climbs over 30 meters up a tree in the rain forest of Gunung Palung National Park, West Kalimantan, Indonesia. Tim Laman, World Press Photo

Nature stories, second place: This image was part of a series that portrays the armed groups that profit most from the illegal ivory trade and the people at the frontline of the war against them, as well as others affected. A Lord’s Resistance Army fighter holds two ivory tusks on Near, Sudan. Ivory is a means of financing the LRA and is used for both food and weapon supplies. Brent Stirton/Getty Images for National Geographic, World Press Photo

Nature stories, third place: Madagascar holds more than half the world’s chameleon species; however, as a result of deforestation and habitat loss, 50 percent of the chameleon species is endangered. A Furcifer ambrensis female with an extendable tongue forages for insects in Montain d’Ambre, Madagascar. Christian Ziegler for National Geographic, World Press Photo

Long-term project, first place: This photo is part of a series portraying women who have been raped or sexually assaulted during their service with the US Armed Forces. Now, only 1 out of 10 reported sexual-violence cases goes to trial, and most military rape survivors are forced out of service. US Army Specialist Natasha Schuette, 21, was pressured not to report being assaulted by her drill sergeant during basic training at Fort Jackson, South Carolina. Though she was hazed by her assailant’s fellow drill instructors, she refused to back down, and Staff Sergeant Louis Corral is now serving four years in prison for assaulting her and four other female trainees. The US Army rewarded Natasha for her courage to report her assault, and the Sexual Harassment/Assault Response & Prevention office distributed a training video featuring her story. She is now stationed at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. (See more here). Mary F. Calvert/ZUMA Press, World Press Photo

Long-term project, second place: A daughter photographed her own parents, who were in parallel treatment for stage-four cancer, side by side. The project looks at love, life, and living in the face of death. Howie and Laurel Borowick sit next to the bathroom telephone as they hear the most recent news from their oncologist. It was good scans for both of them, and their respective tumors are shrinking. Nancy Borowich, World Press Photo

Long-term project, third place: This photographer documented urban and rural North Korea, capturing the daily life of its citizens, military events, and ceremonies. Few outsiders have ever had a glimpse of the country. The photographer negotiated unprecedented access and took more than 40 trips to North Korea. A woman sits next to models of military weapons at a festival for the “Kimilsungia” and “Kimjongilia” flowers, named after the country’s late leaders, in Pyongyang. David Guttenfelder, World Press Photo

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The Prestigious World Press Photo Finalists Are Out And They Are Breathtaking

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There’s Finally an Agreement to Stop the Fighting in Syria—and It’s Probably Doomed

by theacntnt1985-01 Posted on February 12, 2016

Mother Jones

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Less than two weeks after peace talks over the Syrian civil war abruptly ended, the International Syria Support Group—a body of about 20 countries and international organizations involved in the war, including the European Union and the United Nations—announced on Thursday that they had finally brokered the terms of a halt to the brutal war that has killed nearly half a million people. The “cessation of hostilities” between regime forces and rebel groups, if successful, would be the first general stop to the fighting in almost four years. It seemed to meet some of the Syrian opposition’s demands for humanitarian relief and a halt to Russian airstrikes against civilians and rebels. But none of this means the agreement is likely to succeed.

The International Syria Support Group group pledged its members would push “all parties to allow immediate and sustained humanitarian access to reach all people in need” and “take immediate steps to secure the full support of all parties to the conflict for a cessation of hostilities.” Those parties, however—the Syrian government and mainstream rebel groups—weren’t actually part of the negotiations. Thursday’s agreement merely sets the terms for how a cessation of hostilities would look, leaving the United States, Russia, Iran, and others to convince their allies on the ground to abide by the pact.

How exactly they’ll convince the regime and the opposition to play along hasn’t yet been decided; the declaration gives the ISSG a week to figure out the details of the agreement and implement them. “We will only be able to see whether this was a breakthrough in a few days,” admitted German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier during the announcement, which took place at a security conference in Munich. Secretary of State John Kerry also tempered expectations for the cessation agreement. “The real test is clearly whether or not all the parties honor those commitments and implement them in reality,” he said. “What I’ve said again and again is we cannot guarantee success in the outcome.”

The fact that the opposition’s High Negotiations Council, a body made up of dissident Syrian politicians and rebel leaders, is not taking part in the discussions in Munich means the agreement may not get crucial buy-in from armed groups on the battlefield. Such support is critical for political negotiations or agreements to hold.

The Washington Post reported that while rebels may accept the “ceasefire”—the United States and Russia are divided on whether to use the term—out of exhaustion and lack of options, they are still highly skeptical. “We no longer trust words. There have been too many recently, matched with opposite action on the ground from the Russians,” Issam Rayess, a spokesman for the rebels’ Southern Front coalition that fights near Damascus, told the Post‘s Liz Sly. “Within a week everything will have been destroyed,” one civilian told her. And no matter what the rebels decide, the agreement will also have no effect on jihadi groups like ISIS or Jabhat al-Nusra, Syria’s homegrown affiliate of Al Qaeda.

The High Negotiations Council has adopted a wait-and-see approach. When the Geneva talks stopped earlier this month, the HNC said it would not return to the table until Russian airstrikes ended and humanitarian aid began flowing to starving and decimated areas of Syria. The United Nation’s Syria envoy hopes to restart the talks by February 25, and HNC spokesman Salim al-Muslat says the cessation of hostilities must actually take effect before the opposition returns to talks. “If we see action and implementation, we will see you very soon in Geneva,” he told reporters on Thursday.

But even if the fighting does stop for any significant length of time, the two sides are still no closer to agreeing on the most basic issue of the war: what to do with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The opposition and its backers will not accept any political solution that allows Assad to stay in office. But on the same day the cessation was announced, Assad told the French wire service AFP that he has no plans to give up any territory or power, instead reconfirming his intent to regain control of the entire country. “This is a goal we are seeking to achieve without any hesitation,” he said in an interview on Thursday. “It makes no sense for us to say that we will give up any part of Syria.” As Middle East analyst Brooklyn Middleton noted on Twitter, Assad’s statement means the cessation of hostilities will mostly be an illusion of progress rather than an actual achievement.

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There’s Finally an Agreement to Stop the Fighting in Syria—and It’s Probably Doomed

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