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This Ad by Republicans Against Barry Goldwater Basically Predicted Donald Trump

Mother Jones

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“When the head of the Ku Klux Klan, when all these weird groups come out in favor for the candidate of my party, either they’re not Republicans or I’m not,” says the thoughtful-looking man as he stares into the camera.

You wouldn’t be at fault for assuming such a line was used to describe the existential crisis within the Republican party today, as it wrestles with the very real prospect of Donald Trump becoming its presidential nominee. But it’s actually a direct quote from “Confessions of a Republican,” a 1964 television advertisement attacking thennominee Barry Goldwater. It features an actor playing a lifelong Republican who struggles to come to terms with the Arizona senator’s rise.

The classic campaign ad has resurfaced today because of its eerie parallels to the 2016 election and the increasingly likely chance that Trump will secure the GOP nomination.

“This man scares me,” the man in the ad says. “Now maybe I’m wrong. A friend of mine said to me ‘Listen, just because a man sounds a little irresponsible during a campaign doesn’t mean he’s going to act irresponsibly. You know, that theory that the White House makes the man—I don’t buy that.”

For nearly five minutes the actor ponders the implications of his party’s nominee, regretting that he did not go to the San Francisco convention and oppose him. He concluded by urging Republican support of the Democratic candidate, Lyndon Johnson.

“I think my party made a bad mistake in San Francisco, and I’m going to have to vote against that mistake on the third of November.”

That’s probably where the parallels to today end.

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This Ad by Republicans Against Barry Goldwater Basically Predicted Donald Trump

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ISIS Appears to Be Close to Collapse

Mother Jones

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Liz Sly of the Washington Post has an unusually optimistic report about the fight against ISIS today. She reports that both Palmyra and a string of villages in northern Iraq are being overrun by US-backed forces:

These are just two of the many fronts in both countries where the militants are being squeezed, stretched and pushed back….Front-line commanders no longer speak of a scarily formidable foe but of Islamic State defenses that crumble within days and fighters who flee at the first sign they are under attack.

….Most of the advances [] are being made by the assortment of loosely allied forces, backed to varying degrees by the United States, that are ranged along the vast perimeter of the Islamic State’s territories. They include the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, in northeastern Syria; the Kurdish peshmerga in northern Iraq; the Iraqi army, which has revived considerably since its disastrous collapse in 2014; and Shiite militias in Iraq, which are not directly aligned with the United States but are fighting on the same side.

The U.S. military estimated earlier this year that the Islamic State had lost 40 percent of the territory it controlled at its peak in 2014, a figure that excludes the most recent advances.

….In eastern Syria, the seizure late last month of the town of Shadadi by the Kurdish YPG — aided by U.S. Special Forces — was accompanied by the capture of nearly 1,000 square miles of territory….The operation was planned to take place over weeks. Instead, the town fell within days, said a senior U.S. administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk candidly.

“Shadadi was going to be a major six-week operation,” he said. “The ISIS guys had dug trenches and everything. Instead, they completely collapsed. They’re collapsing town by town.”

This could just be happy talk, of course. It wouldn’t be the first time. Or maybe ISIS is regrouping for an epic last stand. But if this reporting is true, it represents a self-sustaining dynamic: rumors of ISIS collapse inspire Iraqi forces to fight harder, which in turn contributes to ISIS collapse. At this point, Sly reports, the issues in the way of further progress are as much diplomatic as military: “We could probably liberate Mosul tomorrow, but we would have a real mess on our hands if we did,” says Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

I wonder what Republicans will do if ISIS is truly on the run by the time campaign season starts in the fall? Whine that they could have done it even faster? Complain that we didn’t steal all the oil while we were at it? They’re barely going to know what to do with themselves if the weak-kneed appeaser Barack Obama first kills bin Laden and then takes out ISIS.

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ISIS Appears to Be Close to Collapse

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The GOP Plan to Wreck Government Is Doing Great, Thanks Very Much

Mother Jones

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Good news! If you call the IRS, they’ll probably answer this year. The bad news is that this is purely temporary:

The reduced wait times during tax-filing season, which ends April 18, were possible because of a cash infusion from Congress, but they only temporarily obscure continued problems at the U.S. tax agency. Audits are down. Identity theft is persistent. Tax lawyers gripe about the lack of published rules….“I can certainly understand the displeasure that Congress has,” said Fred Goldberg, who ran the IRS under President George H.W. Bush. “You can shoot at the IRS, but the issue is collateral damage, and the collateral damage on taxpayers is huge.”

….The IRS is trying to crack down on tax fraud, but with fewer workers. The agency had 17,208 employees doing tax enforcement in 2015, down 24% from 2010….In fiscal 2017, the IRS wants $12.3 billion to get back above the 2010 peak funding level. Congressional Republicans have already declared that a non-starter, which means reduced audits and longer wait times will continue.

Republicans would like to do away with the IRS. That’s what they keep saying, anyway. They want all your taxes on a postcard, or a 3-page tax code, or an abolition of income taxes entirely.

Failing that, their goal is twofold: First, starve the agency of funding so that it operates poorly and the public gets pissed off at it. Second, starve the agency of funding so that it can’t do as many audits of rich people. In real terms, the IRS budget is down 14 percent since 2010, despite a notable lack of either (a) fewer people paying taxes or (b) fewer rich people trying to cheat on their taxes.

But this all works out well anyway. The bigger picture looks like this:

  1. Reduce IRS budget.
  2. IRS service tanks.
  3. Hold outraged congressional hearing about lousy IRS service.
  4. Public convinced that IRS bureaucracy is bloated and inefficient.
  5. Reduce IRS budget to cheers of public.
  6. Rinse, repeat.

This works for lots of other agencies too. Basically, you do everything you can to gum things up, then use this as evidence that government is incompetent. But it works especially well for agencies like the IRS, which no one likes in the first place. The fact that it helps out corporations and rich people is just a nice cherry on top.

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The GOP Plan to Wreck Government Is Doing Great, Thanks Very Much

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Stop Freaking Out About How Much Protein You’re Getting

Mother Jones

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Stroll through the aisles of your supermarket and you’ll see advertisements left and right for snacks packed with the new magical nutrient: protein. Wheyhey ice cream—”20 grams of protein per pot”—promises to help you with “losing weight” and “skin anti aging,” while P28 high protein sliced bread wants to be “part of your journey to a healthy lifestyle.” Lenny & Larry’s protein-packed cookies supposedly help “chase away hunger.” Artisanal bison jerky bars line the Whole Foods’ checkout aisle, and everyone at work is on a Paleo diet.

Do we really need this much protein? To maintain normal health, the average sedentary adult woman needs a daily dose of 60 grams and a man needs around 70. Yet data show that Americans may consume around 120 grams daily. That means we’re consuming twice as much as what’s needed, likely without even trying. “If you have enough calories in your diet, not getting enough protein would be very, very hard,” journalist and author Marta Zaraska told me in an interview for our latest episode of Bite, “Zebra Meat and Vegan Butchers.”

In her new book Meathooked: The History and Science of Our 2.5-Million-Year Obsession With Meat, Zaraska digs deep into the reasons behind this protein hunger. According to Zaraska’s research, the craze goes much further back than the rise of the Paleo and other protein-focused diets. In fact, one of myths fueling this protein fixation has roots in a shaky finding from the 1800s. That’s when German scientist Carl von Voit determined how much protein soldiers and hard laborers consumed each day, and then extrapolated that the average body required 150 grams a day. “The problem with his methodology is obvious,” writes Zaraska: “it’s a bit like observing children stuffing themselves with cookies and concluding that young humans require tons of sugar to grow.” By 1944, the USDA had halved that recommendation, but the idea that we need lots of protein to be healthy lived on.

Most of the protein we consume comes from animals: Americans eat roughly 270 pounds of meat a year. For years, many people thought that without animal flesh, our bodies don’t get all of the essential amino acids they need. (Meat is considered a “complete” protein because it contains all of the acids.) Zaraska traces some of this misunderstanding back to, ironically, Frances Moore Lappé, author of Diet for a Small Planet. In her seminal 1971 manual for embracing a low-impact life, Lappé suggested that vegetarians should chart the amino acids in their plant foods and eat the foods together at the right times to make sure they could “complete” their plant-based proteins through the right combinations of amino acids from different sources, a task that required laborious planning and analysis.

True, plant foods can lack enough essential amino acids; beans, for instance, are low in methionine. (Grains are high in methionine, hence the advice to enjoy rice and beans together.) But since the 1970s, we’ve learned that the body actually completes proteins—fills in the missing elements —on its own. “Now we know that the liver can store amino acids so we don’t have to combine the acids in one meal,” states the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. In the 20th anniversary edition of her book, Lappé acknowledged that when it came to amino acids, she had “reinforced another myth.” Not only does the body complete proteins, there are several plant foods that have all of the essential amino acids that a person needs, writes Zaraska, such as buckwheat, quinoa, soy, and potatoes.

The consensus among many doctors and dietitians these days seems to be that if you are eating a diverse array of foods, you don’t need to stress about protein. The Institute of Medicine’s recommended daily allowance of protein is 0.36 grams per pound of body weight (adjusted slightly if you’re active, ill, or pregnant). I’d need about 42 grams to meet my requirement; when I added up everything I ate earlier this week, I was startled to discover that I had eaten 66 grams without thinking twice—and I don’t eat meat. Considering a single serving of chicken breast clocks in at 31 grams and a piece of skirt steak at 22, it’s easy to see why Americans frequently double-dip on their protein allowances. (Calculate your own daily allowance here.)

On its own, eating a lot of protein isn’t actually that unhealthy. As Stanford medicine professor Christopher Gardner told me, for the most part our bodies can tolerate extra helpings of the nutrient, though excessive amounts have the potential to wreak havoc on the kidneys. It’s what comes with the protein that puts us at risk, explains Gardner. When General Mills came out with its more expensive “Cheerios Protein,” the brand boasted that the new cereal would provide the whole family with “long-lasting energy.” But that energy likely had more to do with the nutty O’s sugar content; as the Center for Science in the Public Interest pointed out in a November class action lawsuit, Cheerios Protein contains 17 times the amount of added sugar as the original, and only a touch more of the protein. (General Mills tried to get the suit thrown out in January, to no avail so far.)

Gardner also worries that in our hunger for protein, we’ve begun skipping real foods. We’re saying, “‘I’m not going to eat food, I’m going to have a bar as a meal’—which means that it’s coming with fewer of the natural nutrients of food,” he says.

But Gardner’s real concern has to do with the planet’s health. Around 80 percent of the protein we consume comes from animals, he says, in the form of meat, eggs, or dairy. And those creatures need a lot of resources to become food. A third a pound of hamburger requires 660 gallons of water to produce, if you include the irrigation needed for the feed. Raising animals for people contributes to a bevy of environmental plagues, including deforestation, water contamination, loss of biodiversity, and desertification. Of the more than 25 percent of all greenhouse gases attributed to the food system, 80 percent come from producing livestock.

In early 2015, the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee, a body of scientists who review nutrition advice for the US Departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services, advised the government to encourage a shift to a more plant-based diet: “Consistent evidence indicates that, in general, a dietary pattern that is higher in plant-based foods…and lower in animal-based foods is more health promoting and is associated with lesser environmental impact than is the current average US diet,” the committee wrote. Ultimately, this recommendation was left out of the 2016 Dietary Guidelines. But others are sounding a similar alarm. Earlier this week, Oxford researchers published a report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences arguing that a global shift to a more plant-based diet could reduce global food-related greenhouse gas emissions by 29-70 percent by 2050 and save the planet up to $31 trillion US dollars, or 13 percent of the world’s GDP.

Protein-cramming probably won’t hurt you, but it likely won’t do you much good, either. And as the aforementioned Oxford researchers note, the choices we make about food “have major ramifications for the state of the environment.” For the sake of our crowded planet, maybe it’s time to relax and stop trying to make protein part of every item on your plate.

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Stop Freaking Out About How Much Protein You’re Getting

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Let’s Spend a Day on the Campaign Trail With Our Presidential Candidates

Mother Jones

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Just for the record, here’s what Hillary Clinton was doing today in the wake of the Brussels bombings: talking about combating terrorism at a roundtable in Los Angeles.

And here’s what our Republican presidential hopefuls were doing: in between panicked demands for surveilling Muslim neighborhoods that even the NYPD rolled its collective eyes at, Donald Trump was lobbing juvenile insults at Ted Cruz’s wife and Cruz was calling Trump a “sniveling coward.”

Remind me again: which party is it that takes national security seriously?

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Let’s Spend a Day on the Campaign Trail With Our Presidential Candidates

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Do We Panic Too Much? (Spoiler: Yes We Do)

Mother Jones

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I’m not sure what brought this on—oh, who am I kidding? I know exactly what brought this on. Anyway, I was thinking about recent public panics and started listing a few of them in my mind. This is just off the top of my head:

Crack babies
Super predators
Lehmann/AIG/Countrywide etc.
Mad cow
Deepstar Horizon
Daycare child molesters
Ebola
ISIS/Syrian refugees

I’m not saying that none of these were justified. Big oil spills are no joke. Ebola was certainly a big deal in Africa. The financial collapse of 2008 wasn’t mere panic.

And yet, generally speaking it seems as if public panics are either completely unjustified or else wildly overwrought. Am I missing any recent examples where there was a huge panic and it turned out to be wholly justified? HIV would have been justified in the early 80s, but of course we famously didn’t panic over that—other than to worry about getting AIDS from toilet seats. Help me out here, hive mind.

POSTSCRIPT: I should mention that despite my choice of illustration, I’ve never really blamed anyone for the tulip panic. Personally, I think tulips are worth going crazy over.

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Do We Panic Too Much? (Spoiler: Yes We Do)

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Obama Dances the Tango During a State Dinner in Argentina

Mother Jones

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President Obama danced the tango during a state dinner in Argentina on Wednesday, after receiving a friendly invitation from a professional to join her on the dance floor. The president, who initially tried to decline the dance, nailed the impromptu performance, which was both wonderfully awkward and a delight to watch for everyone else.

Well, almost everyone. By morning light, political pundits jumped at the opportunity to chastise the president. That buzzkill brought to you by Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations.

However, the advance person who let him do the tango, that person ought to be looking for work on somebody’s—in somebody’s campaign very far away. That was a tremendous mistake. It’s fine to go to Argentina, you want to do the work, but you’ve got to be careful of these little photo ops and optics. Baseball games and tango, that’s inconsistent with the seriousness of the day.

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Obama Dances the Tango During a State Dinner in Argentina

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Justice Alito Is Clueless About How Health Insurance Works. That’s a Big Problem for Women.

Mother Jones

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Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito has earned a reputation, fairly or not, that he doesn’t understand the reality of women’s lives. He’s been observed shaking his head and rolling his eyes at his female colleagues, particularly the venerable Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, when she read a dissent from the bench opposing his opinions in a pair of gender discrimination cases. The oral arguments in Zubik v. Burwell Wednesday probably did nothing much to improve that perception.

Alito is the author of the controversial 2014 decision in Hobby Lobby v. Burwell, in which the court held that a for-profit corporation could deny employees insurance coverage for contraception because of its religious beliefs. As part of the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, Congress required employers who provided their workers with health insurance to offer coverage for contraception at no cost. Hobby Lobby had objected to that requirement on the grounds that providing access to some contraceptives, such as IUDs—which the company’s owners insisted (wrongly) were abortifacients—violated their strongly held religious beliefs.

In his opinion in that case exempting Hobby Lobby from the contraceptive mandate, Alito promised the court’s ruling would have “precisely zero” impact on women and their ability to access free contraception because the Obama administration had provided a workaround for religious organizations, and that could be applied to Hobby Lobby, too. An organization merely had to alert the government of its religious objector status, and the government would work with its insurance companies to provide the mandated contraception coverage without the employer having to pay or otherwise get involved. That way, Alito suggested, women would still get their birth control, their employers would not compromise their souls, and everyone would win.

That workaround was at the center of the case the court heard Wednesday, after it was challenged by dozens of religious nonprofits, including the religious order, the Little Sisters of the Poor, and various Catholic universities. They allege that even the simple act of notifying the government of their religious objections to the contraceptive coverage would still enable that coverage to be provided, and would therefore make them complicit in sinful activities.

The case puts Alito in a bind, given that he specifically relied on the accommodation the nuns are challenging to justify his opinion in Hobby Lobby. If he were consistent, he’d end up voting with the liberals in this case and ruling that sending some paperwork to the government to ask for a religious exemption is not a particularly onerous burden on their religious freedom—a conclusion eight out of nine lower courts have reached.

But it was clear during Wednesday’s oral arguments that Alito’s loyalties to the Catholic Church and strong commitment to religious freedom were clearly dominating his reasoning. He appeared to be grasping for an alternative in which the religious groups could distance themselves even further from insurance coverage that might compromise their beliefs. He raised an idea proposed by the petitioners: Instead of having the religious organizations’ insurance companies provide contraceptive coverage, the government ought to offer contraception-only insurance plans, maybe on the federal health insurance exchanges.

“Suppose that it were possible for a woman who does not get contraceptive coverage under…a plan offered by a religious nonprofit to obtain a contraceptive-only policy free of charge on one of the Exchanges. Why would that not be a less restrictive alternative to the notification requirement?” he asked Solicitor General Donald Verrilli, who was arguing for the government. “Is it because these Exchanges are so unworkable, even with the help of a navigator?” he asked, oozing with irony.

Alito’s pointed question about the Affordable Care Act, which is responsible for creating the exchanges and which Alito voted twice to overturn, elicited laughs. With a bit of a rueful chuckle, Verrilli shot back that one obvious reason why such a plan wouldn’t work is that it would be illegal. No such insurance can be sold on the exchanges under federal law. But aside from that, creating separate contraceptive coverage as Alito suggested would defeat the very goal Congress outlined when it mandated the contraceptive coverage in the first place. Verrilli explained that overwhelming evidence shows that even small cost barriers to contraception keep women from using it, which in turn results in more unplanned pregnancies and abortions. Congress wanted women to be able to get contraception seamlessly, from their regular doctors and through their regular health insurance plans.

Having to go out and purchase a separate contraceptive plan—which he doubted any insurance company would offer anyway—would create huge headaches and additional barriers to women. “Consider this, please, from the perspective of the woman employee,” Verrilli told Alito. “She has a health plan from her employer. She goes to her doctor, her regular doctor. She may have a medical condition that makes pregnancy a danger for her. She may be one of the women…who needs contraception to treat a medical condition, or maybe she just wants the contraception that’s appropriate for her.” If the government adopted what Alito was proposing, he continued, “her regular doctor has to say to her, ‘Sorry, I can’t help you.'” The doctor would not only be prohibited from writing the prescription; she’d be unable to counsel her patient about her options because of the prohibitions on her employer-based insurance.

Alito was not persuaded. “Why do you assume that the doctor to whom the women would go for other services under the plan would be unwilling to provide those services under a separate plan that covers contraceptives?” he asked, suggesting that having another insurance plan was no more complicated than getting an additional card, as often occurs with dental or vision coverage.

It was the sort of question you might expect from someone who has had little experience with the world of private-sector health insurance. Except for a very brief stint at a private firm after law school, Alito has never worked in the private sector. He went from the US Attorney’s Office in New Jersey to the Reagan Justice Department to the 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals to the US Supreme Court—a seamless stretch of federal employment, where he has had access to some of the best private health insurance of any group of Americans. Plans in the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program include a large, national network of doctors, protection against being charged extra for preexisting conditions, and unusual continuity of care. His questions during the arguments suggested that Alito has probably never worried about whether a doctor he wanted to see would take his insurance, much less encountered a physician who took no insurance at all because the paperwork simply had become too onerous.

A contraceptive-only insurance plan seems unwieldy on its face. Aside from the practical difficulties of Alito’s proposal, at least one amicus brief in the case indicates that his alternative would also be a huge violation of Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act because of the way it singles out women for disparate treatment in health care. Politically it’s also utterly unfeasible, as was his suggestion that such plans could be created if Congress offered to subsidize them at 115 percent of the cost. At a time when Congress and Republican state governments are trying to defund Planned Parenthood and shut down clinics that offer cheap contraception, it’s hard to imagine any Congress in the near future creating special subsidies to give women birth control plans, even if some elderly nuns and a few other religious groups don’t want to fill out a form.

Such practicalities didn’t seem to carry much weight with Alito. But he is consistent; Justice Ginsburg has repeatedly scolded him for being out of touch with the realities of women’s lives in previous discrimination and reproductive rights cases. Even so, women’s groups seemed fairly convinced that Alito would, for once, take their side in this case because of his opinion in Hobby Lobby. Before the oral arguments, Gretchen Borchelt, vice president of reproductive rights and health at the National Women’s Law Center, which filed a brief in the Zubik case, said in a press call, “It would be unacceptable for the Supreme Court to invalidate a provision it proposed just two years ago in Hobby Lobby.” Predicting that Justice Anthony Kennedy seemed a likely vote for the government, she declared, “We’re confident in a 5-3 decision here.”

Alito seemed intent on dashing those hopes. At the very least, he appeared ready to force the government to burden women with a more complicated, less effective means for accessing contraceptive coverage to prevent a very minor compromise of religious freedom. Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. seemed inclined to agree with him, at least in voting against the government’s position. And Kennedy expressed frustration with both sides of the case, leaving his critical swing vote completely unpredictable.

Fortunately for women, perhaps, the court is short a member right now, and even if Alito backpedals on his promises in Hobby Lobby and votes along with the other conservatives to defang the contraceptive mandate, the court is likely to deadlock 4-4 in the decision, which means the lower court rulings will stand. So women who work for religious organizations, including universities, in the eight federal appellate court circuits where the courts have ruled for the government in these cases, should be able to get free contraceptive coverage. But the women in 8th Circuit states—Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Arkansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota—which voted in favor of the religious groups, may have to wait until after the presidential election, when a new president may finally be able to appoint a ninth justice to the court, and the conflict gets resolved once and for all.

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Justice Alito Is Clueless About How Health Insurance Works. That’s a Big Problem for Women.

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Terrorism in Western Europe Used to Be Much Worse

Mother Jones

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Following the Paris attacks, and now the Brussels bombings, the so-called Islamic State has been described as a terrorist organization unlike any seen in recent history. This isn’t a new idea: Back in 2014 former defense secretary Chuck Hagel said that ISIS “is beyond anything that we’ve seen.”

Yet even with the threat of terrorist attacks from homegrown and ISIS-linked jihadists, the streets of Western Europe are safer now than in the not-too-distant past, when terror groups ranging from the IRA to Basque separatists killed hundreds. After the ISIS attacks that struck Paris in November 2015, killing 130 people, the statistics portal Statista created this chart for Huffington Post showing the number of victims claimed by terrorist attacks in Western Europe since 1970.

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Terrorism in Western Europe Used to Be Much Worse

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No One Knows Just How Big Europe’s Jihadi Problem Really Is

Mother Jones

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In the wake of the terrorist attacks in Belgium on Tuesday, security services across Europe and elsewhere are on alert for more potential attacks. But even as Belgian police identify suspects and more information comes to light, no one can say just how big Europe’s jihadi threat actually is.

For one thing, there’s no generally accepted estimate of the number of terrorist operatives lurking in European cities. The most dangerous potential attackers are the men—about 5,000 from Western Europe alone—who have traveled to Syria and Iraq to fight with ISIS and other jihadi groups. The Tony Blair Faith Foundation, a think tank set up by the former British prime minister, estimated in January that about 1,300 of those fighters have returned to Europe. Ed Husain, a senior adviser to the group, told Newsweek that the fighters are “a potent force and a significant threat.”

But it’s also unclear how many of them return home with the intent to kill. A report issued last April by the Congressional Research Service noted that “only a small proportion of foreign fighters have actually committed acts of violence upon returning to their home countries” and that “some European fighters may return traumatized and disillusioned by the brutality of the conflict and have no intention of committing violence at home.”

Colin Clarke, a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, agrees that many of the fighters return home and “wash their hands” of the jihadi experience. “I’d say the lion’s share probably do, or they just know that they’re being watched by the security services,” he says. “I’d say it’s only a small minority of guys that come back with the intent to attack.” Unfortunately, those that do are “usually highly skilled” and able to coordinate attacks like the ones in Paris and Brussels.

And for every man who straps on an explosive vest or picks up a rifle, there’s a long chain of people who have helped him plan, get weapons, forge documents, and carry out other logistical tasks. “You’re going to have a facilitation network that is two or three people to every one that’s an actual terrorist that wants to mobilize to violence,” says terrorism researcher Clint Watts of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. That means the 1,300 returned fighters could represent only a baseline number of jihadis, not a pool from which only a handful of attackers have emerged. “I would say it’s bigger,” Watts says.

No matter the exact size of the problem, some countries simply appear unequipped to handle the number of potential targets and the intense surveillance needed to track them. The problem is particularly bad in Belgium, which has a weak government and security services divided by language barriers. “Some guys are speaking Flemish, some are speaking French, some are speaking German,” says Clarke. “Very few are speaking Arabic.”

Other countries are facing similar crunches in manpower and resources. “The countries that I’m worried about the most are these smaller countries that lack both the capacity and the sort of competency in counterterrorism but have had a lot of foreign fighters go to Iraq and Syria,” Watts says. “Denmark, the Netherlands, and Belgium all need to be concerned.”

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No One Knows Just How Big Europe’s Jihadi Problem Really Is

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