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Arctic methane escape could cost $60 trillion

Arctic methane escape could cost $60 trillion

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Beware of melting.

An almighty belch is building up deep in the belly of the Arctic, and it’s going to cost the world a pretty penny when it rips.

As the Arctic continues to melt, a 50-gigatonne reservoir of methane trapped in permafrost beneath the East Siberian Sea will be released — perhaps steadily over five decades or perhaps during one sudden grandfatherly burp — and that will cause an estimated $37 trillion to $60 trillion worth of damage. So say researchers in a commentary published Wednesday in the journal Nature.

Methane is a particularly potent greenhouse gas. “Higher methane concentrations in the atmosphere will accelerate global warming and hasten local changes in the Arctic, speeding up sea-ice retreat, reducing the reflection of solar energy and accelerating the melting of the Greenland ice sheet,” the researchers write. “The ramifications will be felt far from the poles.”

It’s not easy to conceptualize such large dollar values, but look at it this way: The world’s gross domestic product in 2012 was estimated at about $70 trillion.

Researchers from Erasmus University Rotterdam and the University of Cambridge estimated the financial impacts of the methane release by running thousands of simulations on a modeling tool that estimates social costs of climatic change. From the Nature article:

The economic consequences will be distributed around the globe, but the modelling shows that about 80% of them will occur in the poorer economies of Africa, Asia and South America. The extra methane magnifies flooding of low-lying areas, extreme heat stress, droughts and storms.

The full impacts of a warming Arctic, including, for example, ocean acidification and altered ocean and atmospheric circulation, will be much greater than our cost estimate for methane release alone.

To find out the actual cost, better models are needed to incorporate feedbacks that are not included in [our model], such as linking the extent of Arctic ice to increases in Arctic mean temperature, global sea-level rise and ocean acidification, as well as including estimates of the economic costs and benefits of shipping. Oil-and-gas development in the Arctic should also, for example, take into account the impacts of black carbon, which absorbs solar radiation and speeds up ice melt, from shipping and gas flaring.

Antacid, anybody?

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Arctic methane escape could cost $60 trillion

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Reach for the Sun

Photosynthesis, in the form of biochar, may be one of our best defenses against climate change. @Doug88888/Flickr A gigantic, steaming-hot mound of compost is not the first place most people would search for a solution to climate change, but the hour is getting very late. “The world experienced unprecedented high-impact climate extremes during the 2001-2010 decade,” declares a new report from the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization, which added that the decade was “the warmest since the start of modern measurements in 1850.” Among those extreme events: the European heat wave of 2003, which in a mere six weeks caused 71,449 excess deaths, according to a study sponsored by the European Union. In the United States alone, 2012 brought the hottest summer on record, the worst drought in 50 years and Hurricane Sandy. Besides the loss of life, climate-related disasters cost the United States some $140 billion in 2012, a study by the Natural Resources Defense Council concluded. We can expect to see more climate-related catastrophes soon. In May scientists announced that carbon dioxide had reached 400 parts per million in the atmosphere. Meanwhile, humanity is raising the level by about 2 parts per million a year by burning fossil fuels, cutting down forests, and other activities. To keep reading, click here. Continued – Reach for the Sun Related Articles Climate Change Slowdown is Due to Warming of Deep Oceans, Say Scientists The Alberta Oil Sands Have Been Leaking for 9 Weeks CIA Backs $630,000 Scientific Study on Controlling Global Climate

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Monsanto virtually gives up on growing GMO crops in Europe

Monsanto virtually gives up on growing GMO crops in Europe

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Europeans who don’t want Monsanto’s GMO crops on their land can rejoice.

Monsanto has pretty much given up any hope (at least for now) of selling its genetically engineered seeds for corn, sugar beets, and other crops in Europe, where opposition to GMO food is overwhelming.

From the L.A. Times:

Monsanto Co. said Thursday it will largely drop its bid to grow some of its genetically modified crops in Europe.

The world’s largest seed-maker has nine pending applications with the European Commission, the executive body for the European Union. A spokesman said the company plans to withdraw eight of those applications.

The requests “have been going nowhere fast for several years,” said Brandon Mitchener, a spokesman for the St. Louis-based company’s European entity. “There’s no end in sight … due to political obstructionism.”

The European Union’s stubborn resistance to transgenic crops stands in stark contrast to the welcome mat rolled out by American lawmakers for agro-giants and their most controversial products. From the BBC:

The company said it would now concentrate on growing its conventional seeds business in Europe.

It will also look to get EU approval to import its genetically modified crop varieties from the US and South America into Europe.

In 2012, Germany’s BASF halted the development of genetically modified crops in Europe and moved its European research operations in this area to the US.

Welcome home, corporate industrial science.

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Seas may rise 10 yards during centuries ahead

Seas may rise 10 yards during centuries ahead

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The future view from your favorite beach.

Sea-level rise is currently measured in millimeters per year, but longer-term effects of global warming are going to force our descendants to measure sea-level rise in meters or yards.

Each Celsius degree of global warming is expected to raise sea levels during the centuries ahead by 2.3 meters, or 2.5 yards, according to a study published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The world is currently trying (and failing) to reach an agreement that would limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. Business-as-usual practices could yet raise temperatures by 4 (or even more) degrees Celsius.

Multiply 2.5 yards by 4 and you are left with the specter of tides that lap 10 yards higher in the future than today. That’s 30 feet, the height of a three-story building. For comparison, the seas rose less than a foot last century.

Here is a chart from the new study that illustrates long-term sea-level rise projections under four warming scenarios:

PNASClick to embiggen.

Now, it’s important to note that the new study looks at sea-level rise over the next 2,000 years. The study doesn’t make predictions for how rapidly the seas will rise during that time frame; it just lays out what is possible in the long term. From the study:

On a 2000-year time scale, the sea-level contribution will be largely independent of the exact warming path during the first century. At the same time, 2000 years is a relevant time scale, for example, for society’s cultural heritage.

The difference between this study and others, some of which have foretold less dramatic rises in water levels, is the extent to which it considers ice-sheet melting.

Compared with the amount of water locked up in the world’s glaciers, which are melting rapidly, Earth’s two ice sheets hold incredibly vast reservoirs. The Antarctic ice sheet alone could inundate the world with 60 yards of water if it melted entirely. And then there’s the Greenland ice sheet, which suffered an unprecedented melt last summer.

The ice sheets are not yet melting as dramatically as the glaciers, insulated as they are by their tremendous bulk. In fact, the melting glaciers and the melting ice sheets are contributing roughly equally to today’s rising seas, despite the differences in their overall bulk.

But a hastening decline of the ice sheets is inevitable as accumulating greenhouse gases take their toll.

The authors of the new study, led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, analyzed sea levels and temperatures from millennia past, combining those findings with climate models to get a glimpse of the shifting coastlines of the future. From the study:

[C]limate records suggest a sea-level sensitivity of as much as several meters per degree of warming during previous intervals of Earth history when global temperatures were similar to or warmer than present. While sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea level indicates important contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.

The study’s lead author, Potsdam researcher Anders Levermann, said the results reveal the inevitability of rising water levels as heat accumulates on Earth.

“Continuous sea-level rise is something we cannot avoid unless global temperatures go down again,” he said in a statement. “Thus we can be absolutely certain that we need to adapt. Sea-level rise might be slow on time scales on which we elect governments, but it is inevitable and therefore highly relevant for almost everything we build along our coastlines, for many generations to come.”

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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U.K. throws party for world’s biggest offshore wind farm

U.K. throws party for world’s biggest offshore wind farm

While Americans were celebrating their independence from Britain on Thursday, the British were celebrating a major project that is reducing their dependence on fossil fuels.

The beginning of operations at the world’s biggest offshore wind energy plant was belatedly celebrated along an estuary near the mouth of the Thames River. There, 175 turbines have been producing enough power for nearly 500,000 homes since April.

London Array

Part of the world’s biggest offshore wind power plant.

British Prime Minister David Cameron visited the Thames Estuary site Thursday with his climate minister to ceremonially cut the ribbon at the London Array. From The Guardian:

The London Array has taken the crown of the world’s largest offshore windfarm from the 500MW Greater Gabbard project off the East Anglian coast. The UK currently has more than 3.6GW of offshore wind power capacity, but is expected to have around 18GW by the end of the decade.

America, by contrast, currently has one functional offshore power turbine — a prototype capable of powering four homes. But that is set to change in the coming years, with roughly a dozen offshore wind projects planned.

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Does Climate Change Make Western Firefighting More Dangerous?

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Tragic death of ‘Hotshot’ firefighting team in Arizona renews debate about global warming’s influence on wildfires. In the wake of the tragic news that 19 heroic members of an elite “Hotshot” firefighting team were killed in Arizona, there’s been renewed discussion about climate change and how it is worsening wildfires. In particular, there’s considerable evidence that western fire seasons are getting longer and more destructive, and that this is tied to more extreme heat and drought. But does the same dynamic make the act of wildland firefighting riskier? There are reasons to suspect that it does. Nick Sundt is a former western smoke jumper—a firefighter who literally parachutes in to combat blazes, often in remote locations, acting as a kind of first line of defense. He fought fires from Alaska to New Mexico for a decade during the 1980s. Now, he’s the communications director for climate change at the World Wildlife Fund. No wonder that he has focused much of his attention of late on how Western fires, and conditions for his fellow firefighters, are getting worse. Federal and state “HotShot” crews, explains Sundt, are composed of highly trained specialists who are at the top of their physical game—for instance, they have to be able to hike three miles in 45 minutes carrying a 45 pound pack. They are dispatched to fight fires that grow beyond the capacity of first arrivers—such as smokejumpers—to combat. What follows is often intense, dangerous labor for 16 hours at a time or even longer. As Sundt explains, members of these teams are “arguably the most physically fit and well organized crews of firefighters” that governments have at their disposal. But that doesn’t mean that they’re ready for every situation. In the case of the Arizona team, the emergency shelters that Hotshots take with them—to protect from heat, and preserve oxygen—appear to have been insufficient, for unknown reasons. Such shelters, it is important to note, are not able to resist direct exposure to flames. With fire dynamics changing and overall temperatures rising, meanwhile, even the best prepared firefighters may be facing greater risks. The first such risk involves a well-documented increase in average temperatures in fire-prone regions—punctuated by heat waves of the sort now underway in the West. Extreme heat is of course a physical danger in and of itself (for a video on heat risks to firefighters, see here or below), as well as a major stressor for firefighters who are often operating in intense conditions, with little sleep for days on end—all the while wearing heavy equipment and carrying gear, tools, and water. “I’ve fought fire in the Mojave Desert in 100 plus temperatures, and you grab a drink, it’s like drinking hot tea out of your canteen,” says Sundt. What’s more, these hotter temperatures make it harder for crews to sleep. Firefighters often work at night, according to Sundt, when weather conditions are more favorable. That means they have to go back to camp and try to sleep during the hottest hours of the day. Meanwhile, even the night shifts aren’t as cool as they used to be. The ‘C-N-A Crew’ would help us do our work at night,” Sundt says—explaining that “C-N-A” stands for “cool night air.” But nighttime average temperatures are also rising. That means fires are more likely to be active, and firefighters less likely to get a reprieve. The other new risk to firefighters? Simply that they’re tangling with a different beast than they may be used to. “Many firefighters have commented that they are facing more extreme fire behavior than they have witnessed in their lifetimes,” remarked Dr. Michael Medler, a former wildland firefighter and now a professor at Western Washington University, in 2007congressional testimony. If fires are behaving in different ways than expected—if they’re larger, if they’re unusually severe—that’s an added risk. Longer fire seasons also expose more firefighters to more potential hazards in general. (For more on how wildfires are changing see our explainer here.) That’s not to say that climate change is the only factor making wildfires worse or seemingly more destructive. Increased development in fire prone areas is also at play, as arequestionable past “fire suppression” practices. But we can’t ignore the climate factor. “Heat stresses firefighters like anyone else,” says Sundt.

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Study finds no direct correlation between the Renewable Fuel Standard and rising food prices

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Study finds no direct correlation between the Renewable Fuel Standard and rising food prices

Posted 12 June 2013 in

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Opponents of renewable fuel have tried to claim over and over again that the Renewable Fuel Standard is to blame for rising food prices. But a new study from ABF Economics pours cold water on this false premise. Here’s what you need to know about the RFS and food prices:

  1. The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) isn’t directly correlated to food prices.
  2. According to a recent study from the World Bank, rising food prices are actually driven by energy costs, specifically oil. As they put it, “Of all the drivers of food prices, crude oil prices mattered the most.”
  3. Not only has the RFS not been directly correlated to food prices, the Consumer Price Index shows that retail food prices have gone up more slowly since the RFS kicked in five years ago (See Table 1 on page 4 of the report).
  4. The RFS is also helping to lower feed cost for farmers and ranchers, as they work to feed America. Ethanol production results in a byproduct (known as “dried distillers grain” or DDGS) that is used as highly-nutritious animal feed. Higher-quality feed means livestock and poultry producers can use less of it, and DDGS have increased the availability of animal feed by 21 percent compared to the use of corn alone.

Read more from the Renewable Fuels Association on the ABF Economics study.

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Study finds no direct correlation between the Renewable Fuel Standard and rising food prices

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U.S. and China team up to fight climate-changing HFCs

U.S. and China team up to fight climate-changing HFCs

White House / Pete SouzaXi Jinping and Barack Obama, having a tie-less chat about cyberespionage and climate change.

Hydrofluorocarbons, the climate-changing twins of ozone-ruining chlorofluorocarbons, had best watch out. The world’s two most powerful countries have agreed to join forces to prevent the harmful chemicals from entering the atmosphere.

Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping spent Friday and Saturday talking in California. They couldn’t find much middle ground on cyberespionage, or on a handful of other security issues. But they agreed that their two countries will work together to tackle one of the world’s greatest climate threats.

“[N]either country by itself can deal with the challenge of climate change,” Obama said at a press conference with Xi.

The use of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) has been sharply curtailed under the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which is one of the world’s most successful international agreements. But the protocol has led many manufacturers of fridges and other appliances to switch from CFCs over to hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which, while harmless to the ozone layer, are among the most potent of the greenhouse gases.

For years, environmentalists and governments, including the U.S., have been pushing the idea of expanding the Montreal Protocol to also cover HFCs to help tackle climate change. And now China and the U.S. have agreed to do what they can to make that happen. From the White House:

For the first time, the United States and China will work together and with other countries to use the expertise and institutions of the Montreal Protocol to phase down the consumption and production of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), among other forms of multilateral cooperation. A global phase down of HFCs could potentially reduce some 90 gigatons of CO2 equivalent by 2050, equal to roughly two years worth of current global greenhouse gas emissions.

David Doniger, policy director of the Natural Resource Defense Council’s climate program, described the White House’s announcement as “a big deal.” From his blog post:

For the past four years, support has been growing among both developed and developing countries for tackling HFCs under the Montreal Protocol. This treaty has a proven formula that combines phase-down commitments by both developed and developing countries, with the latter receiving extra time and financial assistance. Every country in the world is a party to this treaty, and together they have already eliminated more than 97 percent of the chemicals that damage the earth’s fragile ozone layer.

Despite the widespread support, progress was slowed in past years by opposition from China, India, and Brazil. But this U.S.-China agreement is a strong signal that things are about to change. There have also been signs of change from India as well.

The Europeans are also launching a big push to use the Montreal Protocol to phase out the use of HFCs. From a June 3 Bloomberg article:

International coordination to reduce hydrofluorocarbons, known as HFCs or F-gases, could have a “significant impact” on reducing emissions, said Artur Runge-Metzger, the European Commission’s lead envoy at United Nations climate talks that began today in Bonn. HFCs make up about 1 percent of greenhouse gases and may account for more than 20 percent by 2050, he said.

The EU is seeking ways to expand the global fight against climate change before 2020, when nations plan to bring a new emissions treaty into effect. The bloc is pushing to delegate HFC reductions to a different treaty, the Montreal Protocol, which was established in 1987 to eliminate chlorofluorocarbons, the so-called CFC gases found in aerosols and solvents.

“We and others believe that the best framework for implementing the phase-down is the Montreal protocol,” Runge-Metzger told reporters. “It has 25 years of experience in addressing fluorinated gases and dealing with the industry sectors that are affected.”

It’s no deal on CO2, but it’s something.

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Dot Earth Blog: Take Back the Asphalt

Cities find that when space reserved for cars is given over to other uses, lots of great things happen. See original article:   Dot Earth Blog: Take Back the Asphalt ; ;Related ArticlesTake Back the AsphaltSurfrider college club joins the offshore campaignWhere Will They Go When There’s No More Room in Arlington? ;

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Surfrider college club joins the offshore campaign

College club joins offshore fight. Visit link:  Surfrider college club joins the offshore campaign ; ;Related ArticlesThousands engage in Morocco, the beach is not a garbage canSurfrider Argentina picks up momentumSurfrider’s Beach Manifesto ;

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