Tag Archives: alternative energy

The Future of Zoos

Is there any ethical way to keep apes, elephants and other intelligent animals in captivity given growing understanding of their emotional life — and rights? Original article: The Future of Zoos ; ; ;

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The Future of Zoos

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Stanford Audience Unmoved by an Informed Debate Over the Need for a Nuclear Renaissance

A vibrant debate, including a couple of Nobel Prize winners, tests the merits and drawbacks of nuclear power in a post-carbon world. The audience? Unchanged. Source –  Stanford Audience Unmoved by an Informed Debate Over the Need for a Nuclear Renaissance ; ; ;

Original source – 

Stanford Audience Unmoved by an Informed Debate Over the Need for a Nuclear Renaissance

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After Cuba’s Dose of Obama and the Stones, Can Evolution Follow Revolution?

A film explores the hopes and anxieties of Cubans at a promising, but still uncertain, crossroads. Continue at source:  After Cuba’s Dose of Obama and the Stones, Can Evolution Follow Revolution? ; ; ;

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After Cuba’s Dose of Obama and the Stones, Can Evolution Follow Revolution?

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New E.P.A. Rules Could Lead to Big Cuts in Methane Leaks from Oil and Gas Operations

The E.P.A. begins to plug leaky gaps in America’s oil and gas environmental rules. Agriculture next? Read more –  New E.P.A. Rules Could Lead to Big Cuts in Methane Leaks from Oil and Gas Operations ; ; ;

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New E.P.A. Rules Could Lead to Big Cuts in Methane Leaks from Oil and Gas Operations

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Watch John Oliver Dismantle the Stupid Way the Media Covers Every Scientific Study

Mother Jones

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Does coffee cause cancer—or help prevent it? What about red wine? These are some of the vital questions that scientists have long struggled to answer, with journalists by their side to misreport the findings.

For the media, scientific studies can be a great source of stories: Someone else does all the work on reaching a conclusion that appears to directly affect something your audience cares about (often their health). What’s more, that conclusion comes with a shiny gloss of indisputable factuality: “This isn’t just some made-up nonsense—it’s science! It must be true.” We’ve all seen how scientific conclusions that were carefully vetted by other scientists can be reduced or distorted beyond recognition for the sake of TV ratings or story clicks. I’m sure I’ve done it myself.

The systemic failure of science communication by mass media is the topic of John Oliver’s latest diatribe, and he really nails it. There are a variety of problems all mashed together:

  1. Journalists often don’t take the time, or have the skills, to actually read through, comprehend, and translate scientific findings that can be very technical. After all, scientific papers are written for other scientists, not for the general public, so it takes a certain amount of training and effort to unpack what they mean. But that’s, like, hard and boring, and it’s not as if your audience will know any better if you screw it up.
  2. Journalists like big, bold conclusions: “X Thing Cures Cancer!” Scientists don’t work like that. Most peer-reviewed papers focus on very narrow problems and wade far into the weeds of complicated scientific debates. That doesn’t mean studies are all too esoteric to be be useful (although some undoubtedly are). It means that scientists draw their overarching conclusions about the universe based on a broad reading of entire bodies of literature, not individual studies. Single studies rarely yield revolutions; instead, our understanding evolves slowly through tedious, piecemeal work. Scientists want to understand the forest; journalists often just want to show you, dear reader, this one REALLY AWESOME IMPORTANT tree they just found. Those conflicting interests can lead to misleading reporting.
  3. Not all studies are created equal; some contain a variety of inadequacies that should give you pause about the conclusions. But journalists often do a poor job of reporting on these inadequacies, either because they don’t do enough reporting to know the inadequacies exist or because reporting them would undermine the big, bold conclusion the reporter wants to tell you about. Some studies have extremely small samples sizes. Some relied on rats or monkeys or whatever, but the journalist doesn’t explain that the conclusion might not be the same for humans. Actual studies that were published in peer-reviewed journals are often given equal air time to “studies” that some activist/lobbying group/bozo in his garage threw together. Some studies lack important context or conflict with preexisting science—something that journalists often fail to point out.

All these failures lead to confusion and erode the public’s trust in scientists. As Oliver points out, bad reporting about scientific research on the health effects of smoking was a major tool of the tobacco industry in its fight against smoking regulations. The same kind of thing happens all the time now with climate change research. See, for example, the so-called global warming “hiatus.” Over the last couple of years there has been a healthy debate in the scientific community about whether global warming slowed down over the last decade, and if so, why. In part because of sloppy reporting, the debate was misrepresented by climate change deniers as evidence that global warming doesn’t exist at all—which was never what climate scientists were arguing. (That debate is ongoing; Scientific American has a good update on the latest.)

The important thing to remember is that any one individual study isn’t worth very much and can never really “prove” anything. It’s not as if Charles Darwin wrote one study about evolution and rested his case at that. It took years of additional research by other scientists to validate his theory. In fact, as Oliver notes, the intense public pressure for scientists to come up with big, bold discoveries actually undermines a very important step in the scientific method: reproducing the results of other scientists. Replicating someone else’s study is a good way to find out if the original was a fluke or a genuine finding. Recall the scandal from the fall when dozens of psychology papers were found to fail a reproducibility test, thus casting serious doubt on their conclusions. That kind of fact-checking doesn’t happen enough—a trend some observers have called a “crisis of credibility”.

As a general rule (one that I’m sure to have broken as much as anyone), journalists should avoid making too big a stink about individual studies, at least without serving them with a very large grain of salt. Kudos to Oliver for reminding us why that’s important.

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Watch John Oliver Dismantle the Stupid Way the Media Covers Every Scientific Study

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Did the Stagflation of the 70s Ever Exist In the First Place?

Mother Jones

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In a conversation with Dean Baker recently, I learned something interesting. This won’t be new to anyone deeply familiar with inflation statistics, but it was new to me. Maybe it will be new to you too.

The general subject is the stagflation of the 70s, which ushered in supply-side economics and the Reagan era. More specifically, the issue is the measurement of inflation during part of this era. Housing costs are incorporated into the CPI by measuring rents, but prior to 1982 it was done by directly measuring the price of buying a house. In an era when interest rates were steady, this didn’t matter much, but when interest rates went crazy in the mid-70s it made a big difference, overstating inflation by about two percentage points. If you correct for this, and also take a look at exactly when the worst periods of stagflation occurred, you get this:

If you correct the inflation figures and account for the two oil shocks of the 70s, the period from 1970-85 looks remarkably steady. Inflation and GDP growth are both running at about 4 percent for nearly the entire time.

I don’t have the chops to relitigate this, but the question it raises is: Did stagflation ever even exist? Was there anything seriously wrong with the economy of the 70s other than a pair of oil shocks we had no control over? Would the economy have recovered normally after the second oil shock even if Paul Volcker hadn’t created a huge recession? Feel free to litigate in comments.

More here – 

Did the Stagflation of the 70s Ever Exist In the First Place?

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That Profile of Ben Rhodes? You Need to Read It Very Carefully.

Mother Jones

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I honestly don’t care much about Ben Rhodes, but reaction to David Samuels’ profile of him is getting out of hand:

Everyone is circling the wagons around Laura Rozen, and that’s fine. She’s a very good reporter. But once again, let’s take a look at what the Times profile actually says:

The person whom Kreikemeier credits with running the digital side of the campaign was Tanya Somanader, 31, the director of digital response for the White House Office of Digital Strategy, who became known in the war room and on Twitter as @TheIranDeal. Early on, Rhodes asked her to create a rapid-response account that fact-checked everything related to the Iran deal.

….For those in need of more traditional-seeming forms of validation, handpicked Beltway insiders like Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic and Laura Rozen of Al-Monitor helped retail the administration’s narrative. “Laura Rozen was my RSS feed,” Somanader offered. “She would just find everything and retweet it.”

A few points:

This quote comes from Somanader, not Rhodes.
An RSS feed is something you read. Somanader seems to be saying only that she relied on Rozen to keep her up to speed on who was saying what in the Twitterverse.
The idea that Rozen was a “handpicked Beltway insider” comes solely from Samuels’ framing of the quote, not from what Somanader actually said.

It’s common in profiles for authors to intersperse their own impressions with actual quotes. There’s nothing wrong with that. But in this profile, Samuels goes overboard. It’s possible that every quote is well framed, but he’d have to produce far more context to demonstrate that. As it stands, he seems to be a little desperate to spin quotes to make points he wants to make.

This is why I said in my previous post that you have to read Samuels’ profile very carefully. Take a look at what people actually said vs. what Samuels says in his own voice. The quotes themselves are more anodyne than they seem.

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That Profile of Ben Rhodes? You Need to Read It Very Carefully.

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Jeb Bush Won’t Vote for Trump

Mother Jones

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Jeb Bush won’t be voting Republican this fall. The former presidential candidate wrote on Facebook Friday afternoon that he won’t be voting for Donald Trump, the GOP’s presumptive nominee, in the general election. But it looks like Bush will just skip voting for president, saying that he can’t support Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton either.

“Donald Trump has not demonstrated that temperament or strength of character,” Bush wrote. “He has not displayed a respect for the Constitution. And, he is not a consistent conservative. These are all reasons why I cannot support his candidacy.”

Bush isn’t the first member of his family to ditch party unity when it comes to Trump. His father and brother—both more successful presidential candidates than Jeb—have said they won’t be endorsing Trump.

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Jeb Bush Won’t Vote for Trump

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Friday Cat Blogging – 6 May 2016

Mother Jones

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Yesterday was a tough day: my computer went nuts and wouldn’t let me get any work done. The symptoms were bizarre: I couldn’t open any menus. They’d just flash on the screen and disappear. I couldn’t open apps. I couldn’t close apps. I could highlight text, but I couldn’t copy or paste it. I couldn’t even open the Start menu to reboot the machine. What the hell is going on with Windows 10?

Perhaps you can already figure out how this story ends? It turns out that Windows is fine. I’m sorry for doubting you, Microsoft. The bug turned out to be neither software nor firmware, but catware. Hilbert had his paw hanging out of the pod and was pressing the Escape key. When I removed his paw, everything worked fine again.

Really, the things we cat owners staffers put up with is astounding.

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Friday Cat Blogging – 6 May 2016

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Quote of the Day: Debt? What Debt?

Mother Jones

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From Donald Trump, on his plans to run up the deficit in order to rebuild infrastructure:

I’ve borrowed knowing that you can pay back with discounts. I’ve done very well with debt….Now we’re in a different situation with the country, but I would borrow knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal. And if the economy was good it was good, so therefore, you can’t lose.

There you have it. If Trump crashes the economy, he’ll just default on our sovereign debt. Easy peasy. Why is everyone so worried?

POSTSCRIPT: This is a pretty good example of the Trump Dilemma™. Do you ignore this kind of desperate plea for attention? Or do you write a long, earnest piece about just why it’s a very bad idea indeed? You can hardly ignore it since it’s now coming from the Republican Party’s presidential nominee. But giving it oxygen just gives Trump the free media he was angling for in the first place. In this case, I’m semi-ignoring it. Josh Marshall takes the opposite tack here. Decisions, decisions.

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Quote of the Day: Debt? What Debt?

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