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What the Los Angeles Auto Show tells us about the future of cars

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If you ask anyone about the future of the auto industry, it’s all about electrification, ride sharing, and autonomous driving. But in the short-term, at least for automakers, it’s pure anxiety.

Not only did General Motors recently reveal plans to discontinue six of its car models by the end of 2019 (including its only electric offering, the Chevrolet Volt), the Trump administration announced earlier this week that it intends to end automaker subsidies for electric cars after 2022. If pleasing the consumer weren’t enough, now car manufacturers have to worry about a president who clearly doesn’t grasp the complexities of their industry.

Caught between the consumer demands of today and the technology of tomorrow, American auto manufacturers are being pulled in two very disparate directions. Case in point, The Los Angeles Auto Show, which kicked off this weekend to packed crowds, has come to be about two, at times, contradictory concepts: luxury and the environment.

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Finally for those awaiting an electric car that doesn’t look like a science experiment, there’s the Range Rover Plug-in hybrid, Jaguar I-pace (a hybrid SUV), and BMW i8 Roadster and Convertible. Despite the death of the Chevy Volt, nearly every manufacturer is making some sort of entry into electric vehicles, meaning there is more room for fun. EVs aren’t just econo-boxes anymore; the technology is reaching into all aspects of the auto industry, which offers (greener) hope for their future.

In the meantime, however, American car companies still rely heavily on sales of pickup trucks and SUVs. In recent years the balance in the car world has shifted from passenger sedans to SUVs and pickup trucks. When General Motors recently announced it was restructuring, laying off nearly 15 percent of its salaried employees and changing its production offerings, it wasn’t so much an industry shake-up as an aftershock. Ford and Chrysler have largely abandoned sedans, GM is the last of the big American carmakers to make the move.

So how can industry aficionados pursue both what we want (SUVs) and (what we need) new electric options, both snazzy and standard?

The L.A. auto show says as much about the city as it does the state of the industry. The City of Angels is one of the biggest and most important car markets in the U.S., and what happens at this auto show has consequences. As someone who’s been covering the industry for nearly a decade, there’s a lot on display beyond the shiny coats of wax and ginormous red bows.

Here’s what the auto show’s offerings say about the future direction of the auto industry:

SUVs are getting greener

In the U.S., more SUVs and pickup trucks are sold than cars. But that doesn’t necessarily mean people want to drive gas-guzzlers. Consumers are flocking to more fuel-efficient crossover SUVs, such as the Honda CRV. Companies such as Volvo are introducing hybrids, and Kia unveiled its Niro EV. SUVs are getting more fuel-efficient, though three-row SUVs are showing no signs of going away — Ford’s Lincoln brand debuted a new Navigator and BMW showed off its xDrive40i model.

Electric vehicles are still the future (globally)

At a time when other automakers are turning out new hybrid models, what are we to make of GM putting the Volt on the chopping block? It’s not the first time the car company has done away with its electric vehicle offerings. (GM killed the EV-1 back in the ‘90s, then introduced the Volt in 2011.)

Environmentalists have long worried carmakers would abandon electric vehicles due to lagging sales (as they have before). And despite all the space on the show floor for electric cars, U.S. consumers have still not embraced them. Without the federal government incentivizing EVs, you’d expect carmakers to be running in the other direction.

But the good news is even if the current administration isn’t interested in the electric vehicles, California, China, and European nations surely are. China has followed the Golden State’s lead in pushing hard for electric vehicles. Air quality in China is an important political issue. On a tour I took of Chinese manufacturers last year, officials admitted that party leaders feel popular opinion about the environment could threaten their hold on power.

Because of the Chinese and European commitments to electric vehicles, the global market for EVs doesn’t appear to be facing extinction. But despite Tesla’s popularity, EV sales are not what they need to be domestically to make them major market winners.

Vehicles are getting more autonomous and more craaaazy

Veteran car journalist Jean Jennings told me, with a bit of regret in her voice, that the future of the industry is “shared rides, electric cars, and autonomous.” In many ways Jennings says the work that it’s going to take for GM to get to a cleaner, safer, profitable future demands rethinking how the cars are made — and that mean no driver instead of no gas.

A person driving a 2003 Honda Civic would barely recognize the driver-assist technology of today like automated braking and adaptive cruise control. Now, the most exciting tech geared toward driver-assist includes I-can’t-believe-it’s-not-magic features that allow a driver to essentially see through the engine block (making parking easier), and map-the-city visualizations that use the pipes and wires under the road to help autonomous vehicles find their way.

Tough air quality standards are likely here to stay

California’s Air Resources Board, soon to be led by California Governor-elect Gavin Newsom, is expected to fight a long battle with federal regulators to preserve the right for the state to set tougher emissions standards than the rest of the country. Trump being in office might seem like an opportune moment for the auto industry’s air quality standards to relax significantly; but China is the market driving these regulations now, and people there really care about air quality.

Politics and the auto industry typically do not mix well

The talk of this auto show was GM, in part because so many GM workers at the show only have months left at their jobs. It was these job cuts, after a bailout from taxpayers, that drew the ire of President “Tariff man” Trump, whose threats to discontinue electric car subsidies have not played well with industry professionals.

President Trump isn’t the first politician to try to use auto executives as a convenient punching bag. CEOs of car manufacturers haven’t done themselves any favors by, say, opposing airbags and fuel economy standards in the past. But this administration’s public feud is causing major road burn in the industry — and not only for GM. If the president intended to punish the Detroit-based company, he failed to grasp an important part of the electric vehicle rules from the Obama era: Because GM got in early on plug-in electric vehicles, it’s already used up most of its federally backed incentives to sell electric cars. (And its credits drying up is what made the Volt expendable.

Buckle up, because auto trends are part of a cycle

If the future of the industry were a race, it’d be the Indianapolis 500: fast and circular. Take GM’s cuts: The auto industry is cyclical, and layoffs are no surprise. Reshaping the current GM line-up also seems to this reporter (the child and grandchild of auto workers) to be a part of that cycle.

What’s interesting to me about this auto show is the feeling of déjà vu. American car makers are turning away from sedans, just as they did in the early 2000s The shift may not be forever — especially considering that some companies, such as Honda, are investing MORE money in its small cars. As Honda executive Sage Marie pointed out, the company is both investing in sedans and looking to emerging markets, while the American car companies stay wedded to pickups.

So when it comes to predicting the future of the auto industry, don’t get trapped by what’s just around the bend. Automakers are still, in general, looking toward a greener future… but there might be a few pit stops along the way.

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What the Los Angeles Auto Show tells us about the future of cars

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This year’s U.N. climate talks — brought to you by coal?

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KATOWICE, POLAND — There’s a specter hanging over the COP24 climate talks, happening this week in the small city of Katowice, Poland. It’s not the goalpost-moving report that the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released two months ago about the need to limit warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (instead of 3.6 degrees). It’s not the conspicuous absence of prominent U.S. politicians — with the exception of former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who parachuted in, Terminator-style, to brag about his four low-emission Hummers. (Wait, what?)

Nope, the cloud over COP24 is coal dust. Literally. Smokestacks and coal plumes are visible from the spaceship-shaped conference center, and the Wujek coal mine is less than three miles away. And if you thought Poland would try to downplay its historical (and, well, current) reliance on coal, you’d be wrong: The booth for the town of Katowice, sitting right next to the official one for all of Poland, proudly touts coal. And not just a little coal — coal made into soap, coal made into earrings and other jewelry, coal under glass, coal in cages — lots and lots of coal.

This is no accident. The host city is in the heart of the Polish region of Silesia, which sits on a lucrative coal deposit. A Katowice native running the booth explained that here everyone has a connection to coal: a family member or friend who has either worked in the mines or supported the industry in some other form. Coal isn’t just an energy source in Katowice — it’s a way of life.

COP24’s president, Michał Kurtyka, a state secretary in Poland’s Ministry of Energy, argued in his opening remarks that bringing the climate summit to Katowice was a strategic decision: to exhibit a city and region in need of transition away from its lifeblood. “How does one tell a region of 5 million people — in over 70 cities across the region — to just move on, your world is that of the past?” he asked the assembled dignitaries.

It’s a rhetorical question familiar in the United States, where coal-mining jobs have been on a fairly steady decline since the 1980s. But while coal in the U.S. now makes up 30 percent of electricity generation, thanks largely to falling natural gas prices, in Poland coal still accounts for almost 80 percent. And the government is planning the construction of further plants.

“Every government in Poland is coal, coal,” Monika Sadkowska, a Warsaw-based climate activist, told Grist. “The only strong worker union in Poland is mining. And every government is afraid of them.”

Even as the IPCC declared in its October report that coal must be almost entirely phased out by mid-century to keep average global temperatures from cresting over the 2.7 degrees F mark, Polish President Andrzej Duda has been hesitant to renounce it. “According to experts, we have coal deposits that will last 200 years,” he said at a press conference on Monday. “It would be hard to expect us to give up on it totally.”

Soap made from coal is displayed at the Katowice booth at the COP24 climate talks.Meghan Shea

Instead, the Polish government is promoting “carbon neutral” ways to have its coal and burn it, too. In a pamphlet handed out at the Polish country booth, the delegation is promoting “forest coal farms,” or tree-planting projects that will “enable the absorbance of even more CO2” from the country’s massive coal installations.

At a press conference, Robert Cyglicki, the director of Greenpeace for central and eastern Europe, was blunt about the scientific reality of such a project. “One coal power plant, Bełchatów, emits more annually than all Polish forests can absorb,” he said of the world’s largest brown coal-burning facility. Yes, forests are great carbon sinks. But they’re no match for all of Poland’s old, dirty coal plants.

And while Poland has started spreading the gospel of coal at COP24, the U.S. is poised to join the chorus. Last year, at COP23 in Bonn, Germany, the Trump administration ran a coal-focused side event that was interrupted by young protestors. This year, it has a similar gathering in the works, and reports say the U.S. delegation is likely to push for coal to be part of any future global energy mix.

Amid the heavy coal boosterism, this year’s conference has brought attention to the plight of workers whose livelihoods will be changed under an energy transformation. France’s recent “yellow vest” protests were in response to an increased fuel tax, and the populism spreading across Europe is omnipresent at COP24.

In Katowice, most delegates are calling for a “just transition” — a switch in energy sources that doesn’t leave society’s most vulnerable behind. Just as Trump has promised to save the coal industry, Poland’s leaders are promising to provide alternative livelihoods for their countrymen currently working in its mines and coal-fired plants.

Piotr Trzaskowski, the Polish organizer of 350.org, says the “just transition” talk in Poland is just that — talk. Coal is king here, and as President Duda suggested, Polish officials aren’t likely to abandon it. “Their vision is making sure it stays, but just tweaking it here and there,” he told Grist.

Meanwhile, attendees representing developing nations may be less concerned about what happens to today’s fossil fuel workers than with the fact that climate change’s worst effects are still on the horizon.

“Small islands feel like the ‘just transition’ conversation is only happening vis a vis workers who might lose their jobs,” explains Anabella Rosemberg, the international program director of Greenpeace. “They say,’ What about us? Yes they will lose jobs, but we are sinking.’ The ‘just transition’ for them is 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).”

But to even dream of averting 2.7 degrees F will involve phasing out coal — and coal workers’ jobs — fast.

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This year’s U.N. climate talks — brought to you by coal?

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Video games consume more electricity than 25 power plants can produce

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This story was originally published by Mother Jones and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

A few years ago, Evan Mills’ 14-year-old son Nathaniel wanted to get into gaming. To juice up the experience, he wanted to build his own computer like more and more gamers do. Mills is an energy expert, a senior scientist at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, so he struck a deal with his son: “I’ll bankroll it if you help me measure the hell out of it and let’s see how much energy this is really going to use.” His son agreed, and they “went at it,” Mills recalls. “We had a power meter and all the tools. And when the results came in — it was jaw dropping.”

“I’m looking at the power ratings, and I’m like, ‘What? This graphics card uses 300 watts? That one uses 500 watts? Is this a typo? This is way out on the fringes.’” In time, the father-and-son team hardly paid attention to the games themselves, instead focusing on their watt meter and switching out hardware and games to see which configurations would make the electricity readings spike or fall.

In 2015, they released a research paper that got picked up by PC Gamer and other outlets, and Mills landed a $1.4 million grant from the California Energy Commission to continue the research. Last week, Mills released another report, titled “Green Gaming: Energy Efficiency without Performance Compromise,” that builds on his years looking into a relatively untouched field of study. Gaming’s “plug load” was long overlooked in part because it fell into the miscellaneous category of non-appliances whose energy consumption was either not understood or assumed to be less significant.

To fill in the blanks, Mills’ research team created a gaming lab with 26 different systems, a host of displays, and all manner of consoles and virtual reality equipment. Over two years, they tested 37 popular games in eight different genres, including Call of Duty: Black OpsSkyrim, and FIFA17. But it was clear early on that gaming’s energy consumption, Mills says, “is not trivial.”

So just how big is gaming’s environmental footprint? Globally, PC gamers use about 75 billion kilowatt hours of electricity a year, equivalent to the output of 25 electric power plants. (And that doesn’t include console games.) In the United States, games consumes $6 billion worth of electricity annually — more power than electric water heaters, cooking appliances, clothes dryers, dishwashers, or freezers. As the report concludes, “video gaming is among the very most intensive uses of electricity in homes.” And more power means more greenhouse gas emissions: American gamers emit about 12 million tons of carbon dioxide annually — the equivalent of about 2.3 million passenger cars. Games are rated for things like sex and violence, Mills points out, but games and gear are “silent on their carbon footprint.”

What’s more, games’ impact could balloon as their market keeps expanding. “This isn’t the domain of 15-year-old boys anymore,” Mills says. “This is something that two-thirds of American households are engaged in. And what does it mean for the population? It’s a lot of energy and a lot of carbon.” Within five years, the electricity demand for gaming in California could rise by 114 percent, according to the report.

Some of gaming’s energy demand is driven by emerging technologies like virtual reality and higher-resolution connected displays. Cloud-based gaming, in which graphics processing is conducted on remote servers, is especially energy intensive, increasing overall electricity use by as much as 60 percent for desktop computers and 300 percent for laptops.

Luckily, it’s not all doom and gloom. “There is the potential to save a lot of energy with very little effort and little to no effect with the quality or experience,” says Jimmy Mai, a computer technician and one of the project’s principal testers. An avid gamer, Mai’s job was to set up the equipment every day and then play the games, diving into some titles he’d always wanted to explore, like League of LegendsWorld of Tanks, and The Witcher III (“a beautiful game,” says Mai, who jokes that this was “sort of a dream project”). Gaming equipment “is constantly being revised, becoming more energy efficient, and becoming more powerful in some cases,” Mai says. Mills notes that by simply changing out the lab’s graphics cards and power supply units, his team could reduce its energy consumption by 30 to 50 percent—with no reduction in the games’ performance.

The researchers found that gaming’s electricity demand could fall by 24 percent in the next five years if gamers shifted toward more efficient equipment and change their playing habits. Mills and his colleagues have created a website that outlines steps gamers can take to save energy. For example, there’s a huge range in how much energy different gaming systems use — anywhere from 5 kWh per year (very little) to 1,200 kWh per year (equivalent to leaving a 60-watt lightbulb on for more than two years straight.) Simply switching to a more efficient power supply unit can realize a 13 percent energy savings. And if that’s not enough incentive, the report shows how saving energy will also save gamers money. The annual electricity bill for a “power-sipping Nintendo Switch” can be as little as $5, while a “high-end desktop system run by an extreme gamer” can run up to $400 or more.

Awareness can have an impact, too, says Mills. Even though this entire project began with his son, its findings turned him off from gaming. “When my son saw the carbon footprint, he did lose his interest,” Mills says. For others, like Mai, who often worked in the gaming lab by day and still fired up his own system at night, giving up on gaming isn’t going to happen. (“Jimmy is going to go out in a wooden box gaming,” Mills says.) We’ll just have to find a way to enlist them in the massive multiplayer quest to save the planet.

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Video games consume more electricity than 25 power plants can produce

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California wildfire smoke spreads to New York, 3,000 miles away

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This story was originally published by The Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

The U.S. East Coast has been provided a firsthand reminder of the deadly California wildfires after smoke swept across the country and caused a haze to envelop the eastern seaboard, including Washington, D.C. and New York City.

Hazy skies were reported in several places on the East Coast from smoke wafting from 3,000 miles farther west, where wildfires in California have killed more than 80 people and razed more than 15,000 homes and other structures.

An unusually dense fog shrouded the top of New York City skyscrapers and the sunset was particularly intense due to the smoke particles in the air. “Wow. I knew tonight’s sunset over New York City seemed different, and I should’ve realized,” tweeted Kathryn Prociv, a meteorologist on the Today Show. “Wildfire smoke is in the air, all the way from California.”

Donald Trump visited the areas affected last weekend and created controversy by refusing to acknowledge climate change as a major factor, getting the name of the incinerated town of Paradise wrong, once again blaming forest management, and arguing for leaf-raking as a key factor in prevention.

Early on Wednesday morning, the former California governor and actor Arnold Schwarzenegger made a surprise visit to firefighters, who have been working exhaustingly long shifts in extremely dangerous, unpredictable conditions.

He served breakfast to officers who have been battling the Camp Fire in Northern California, and criticized Trump for jumping to blame the fires on forest management.

Schwarzenegger, who was California governor from 2003 to 2011, said he was in Hungary when he heard Paradise had been destroyed, and wanted to visit firefighters to show his appreciation for their efforts while they risked their lives.

Satellite imagery released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed a band of smoke curling up from Southern California to Massachusetts. While the diffused smoke can be hard to distinguish from other pollution, it makes a telltale appearance at sunrise and sunset.

The smoke is moving fairly high in the atmosphere but can exacerbate health problems if it settles – D.C.’s air quality was classed as only “moderate” on Tuesday.

This smoky pall is still nothing compared with the situation on the West Coast, where there have been shortages of protective masks in some places. Schools and sporting events have been shut down due to the dire air quality, although San Francisco’s famed tram network has now reopened. The air is expected to improve this week, with rain forecast for Wednesday.

The Camp Fire in Northern California is the deadliest blaze in the state’s history, with 81 confirmed deaths and nearly 700 people still unaccounted for since it broke out earlier this month, with the cause yet to be determined. The fire obliterated almost all of Paradise, a small town close to the Sierra Nevada, and displaced more than 50,000 people. A smaller blaze near Los Angeles has caused three deaths and is now largely contained, but still prompted some dramatic rescues of those stranded by the flames and smoke.

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California wildfire smoke spreads to New York, 3,000 miles away

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More trouble in Paradise: Camp Fire region braces for floods and mudslides

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Northern California faces a new threat in the aftermath of the disastrous Camp Fire: Weather forecasters are growing more confident that downpours, which could bring flash floods and mudslides, are headed for the fragile, scorched terrain.

On Monday night, the National Weather Service issued flash-flood watches for recent burn areas, in preparation for a series of heavy rainfall events arriving between Wednesday and Friday.

The forecast prompted an escalation of ongoing search and recovery efforts in Paradise, with fears that the rains could wash away the remains of fire victims, reducing the chances of families of the hundreds of residents still listed as missing finding closure.

Kory Honea, the sheriff of Butte County, told the Associated Press that the looming rains means that it’s within the “realm of possibility” that officials might never be able to determine the fire’s exact death toll.

As of Tuesday afternoon, at least 79 people are known to have died, 699 are still unaccounted for, and more than 40,000 displaced. The Camp Fire is already one of the deadliest U.S. disasters of any kind in the 21st century. It is the deadliest U.S. fire in 100 years, and the sixth-deadliest worldwide in that same timespan, according to numbers compiled by meteorologist Jeff Masters. The 17,148 buildings destroyed in and around the town of Paradise are nearly equal to all those lost in each of the other top-10 most destructive fires in California history, combined.

Current forecasts call for as much as six inches of rain near Paradise — about as much as the region gets in an average November — arriving in the span of just a few days. That kind of a deluge would not only frustrate recovery efforts, but it could also spawn mudslides and flash floods by turning the newly barren soil into a roiling, debris-filled torrent. That the still-burning fire that started this whole mess could be extinguished in the process is almost an afterthought.

Survivors’ stories are still emerging two weeks after a wall of flames burned through Paradise in mere hours. While the cause of the fire is yet to be officially determined, it’s nearly certain that climate change played a crucial role in how quickly it grew and spread.

It’s worth noting that climate change is likely playing a role in intensifying heavy rainfall in California, too. More rain can fall in a shorter period of time in a warmer atmosphere that’s becoming more efficient at evaporation. In California, most heavy rainstorms, including those in the forecast this week, come via such atmospheric rivers — tropical conveyor belts of moisture streaming directly ashore — and these are growing wider and more intense as the planet heats up.

The fact that two of the extremes of climate change — drier and hotter droughts, and wetter and wider floods — are manifesting as part of the same disaster is a sign of the urgency of the crisis. The Camp Fire is the latest example of the compound, complex tragedy of climate change.

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More trouble in Paradise: Camp Fire region braces for floods and mudslides

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Axl Rose is Twitter feuding with Trump over California wildfires

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California is on fire again. In an alternate universe, the president of the United States would acknowledge the effects of climate change on wildfires as she directed a barrage of federal resources to the afflicted state. In this universe, however, the president blamed forest management and threatened to withhold funds. And then … Guns N’ Roses lead singer Axl Rose got involved? Here’s what happened.

On Saturday, as a trio of wildfires whipped through California and terrified people evacuated, President Trump took to Twitter to berate the state. Yes, at least 31 people died in the Camp Fire and the president thought now would be a good time to threaten to withhold federal relief:

“There is no reason” for the wildfires except for forest mismanagement? Sir! Poor management is certainly one element of a complex problem, but most forests in the state are managed by the federal government. And rising temperatures play a role too: They make wildfires like the Camp Fire bigger and more common by creating drier conditions.

The lead singer of an iconic ‘80s band isn’t exactly the first person you’d call on to debunk Trump’s tweet, but Twitter is a bizarro melting pot so of course Axl Rose hit back at the president with some wildfire knowledge.

We can’t speak to the “demented n’ truly pathetic” part of the tweet, but the lack of federal funding bit is spot on. The U.S. Forest Service can barely keep up with fire suppression, let alone prevention.

California does need more prescribed burns in order to alleviate some of the state’s fuel load (not the commercial logging that the Trump administration would like to promote but rather the small trees, shrubs, and brush that build up). Less fuel load equals more manageable forest fires. But doing so costs billions of dollars — money that policymakers aren’t sending to the state.

N’ what about climate change? Axl didn’t fit that detail in his Tweet. One person remembered though: the Los Angeles County fire chief. In response to Trump’s tweet, Chief Daryl Osby said, “We’re in extreme climate change right now.”

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Axl Rose is Twitter feuding with Trump over California wildfires

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3 climate winners (and losers) from the California midterms

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Ever since President Donald Trump began rolling back climate efforts, environmentalists have pinned their hopes on California — and on Election Day, they weren’t disappointed. Well, mostly.

There was a ton on the ballot in California: Voters had to decipher confusing initiatives concerning farm animal space requirements, rent control, and even a proposal to perpetually stay on daylight saving time. And many of the voters’ choices have implications for the climate.

Overall, the recent election suggests that voters and politicians in the state continue to embrace their role as the keepers of the (green) flame. But there were a few surprising exceptions. To cut through that tangle, here are three environmental-policy winners and three losers from the California midterms.


Winners

The solar industry

Leadership — both in the governor’s mansion, and the statehouse where Democrats maintained a strong majority — matters when it comes to the robustness of a state’s renewables industry, and it’s looking mighty sunny for solar in California. California has picked renewable energy, especially solar, as its primary tool in forging a carbon-free future, and that’s not going to change. There probably won’t be much difference between the environmental policies of outgoing Governor Jerry Brown and Governor-elect Gavin Newsom (Grist wrote more on Newsom when he was all-but-elected in the primary). Also winning: Tesla, General Motors and other electric automakers. Brown started policies to boost electric cars and Newsom is likely to double down on those efforts.

Bikers and bus riders

California voters defeated an effort to repeal an existing gas tax while at the same time approving $6 billion in bonds to build affordable housing. Both decisions will likely nudge people to drive less. The gas tax makes driving more expensive and provides money for transit and infrastructure; and opening up new affordable housing options could allow more people to live in areas where walking, biking, and public transit are an option.

Climate skeptics

Even though the state has a deeply liberal reputation, big sections of California are Trumpy, conservative, or some other shade of red. The state will be sending at least a half-dozen (we’ll update as the numbers come in) representatives  to the U.S. House who routinely thwart climate policy. They include Representative Duncan Hunter (California’s 50th District), who was recently indicted on charges of fraudulently spending $250,000 in campaign contributions on vacations and shopping sprees. “Is there human-caused climate change?” Hunter asked, rhetorically. “I don’t buy that.” (What he allegedly does buy are video games, golfing clothes, Steelers tickets, and lots of alcohol, according to his indictment.)

Losers

The Central Valley

California voters rejected Proposition 3, a bond measure that would have paid to improve dams, provide water to families with dry wells, and preserve wildlife areas — mostly in the state’s rural Central Valley. Californians rarely see a bond that they don’t love, but this one — put on the ballot by a coalition of farmers, anti-poverty advocates, and environmentalists — shriveled up and died like an unwatered almond tree in a drought. Some environmental groups opposed it because it would have given a lot of money to the dams and canals that keep agribusiness alive.

Oil companies

Governor Brown made it a point to include petroleum interests when bargaining over environmental policy, and even got the powerful Western States Petroleum Association to support his cap-and-trade bill. Governor-elect Gavin Newsom has signaled that he’ll be more antagonistic to oil companies.

Climate skeptics

No, this is not a typo: Climate skeptics were losers as well as winners. Those who won were the usual suspects — lots of incumbents in politically “safe” districts. But in toss-up races, climate became an important issue for candidates. The votes are still being counted (and we will update this, too), but it looks like Democrats will pick up at least one seat in the U.S. House formerly held by climate deniers. Representative Darrell Issa, who got a “Climate Change Denier Award” from the League of Conservation Voters, decided he wouldn’t even bother running in his coastal district north of San Diego. He’ll be replaced by an environmental lawyer, Mike Levin, to represent California’s 49th District.

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3 climate winners (and losers) from the California midterms

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Best climate scenario is still too hot for many communities of color

It’s no surprise that the U.N.’s new major climate report has a lot to say about heat. But as average global temperatures continue to rise, certain communities are more at risk of getting burned than others.

Extreme heat already kills more people in the United States than any other weather event, including hurricanes or flooding. And when it strikes, urban low-income and communities of color often pay the highest price.

To paint a picture of how serious this is, we’ll need to get into some numbers. Scientists say that if we want to prevent the most catastrophic effects of climate change, we have to stop the world from reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2030. This is a hard number to hit, considering we’re currently on track to reach 3.4 Celsius by the end of the century. But even if we succeed, that moderate rate of warming would still lead to 38,000 more heat-related deaths each year compared to rates from the 1960s to 1990s.

Just how much heat mortality rates rise will depend on additional factors, including the vulnerability of specific populations, the built environment, and whether or not people have access to air conditioning. Older people, children, and people with pre-existing conditions are the most vulnerable to the heat. It can trigger asthma attacks and other complications as the body struggles to cool itself.

“You have more emergency room visits, more doctor visits, it’s just bad all around,” says Afif El-Hasan, a pediatrician and national spokesperson for the American Lung Association.

El-Hasan, who also serves on the Environmental Justice Advisory Group at the Southern California Air Quality Management District, says some of his low-income patients keep their windows open in lieu of air conditioning, inadvertently increasing their exposure to nearby sources of air pollution. Those pollutants can end up damaging their lungs, making them even more vulnerable to heat waves. The changing climate, coupled with socioeconomic inequities, trigger an avalanche of health risks, El-Hasan says. “Everything just cascades on top of each other and becomes a bigger problem than it might have otherwise been.”

Like real estate, heat vulnerability is very much about location. Not only are neighborhoods that border freeways more polluted, but they’re also actually hotter too. Plants and trees help cool the air, while dark pavement traps heat. As a result, places with more concrete and less green — often low-income, black and brown neighborhoods where there’s been a history of redlining or disinvestment — are several degrees warmer than their typically more affluent neighbors. It’s called the urban heat island effect, and in places like New York City, its consequences are stark. On average, 100 people die each year in the city — half of them African Americans, even though they only make up a quarter of the population.

“It’s becoming unlivable in urban cities,” says Cynthia Herrera, Environmental Policy and Advocacy Coordinator at WE ACT for Environmental Justice, a community-based organization in Harlem. Over the summer, her organization tracked the number of weather advisories in the hopes of gathering information to help the community adapt to a warming climate. They recorded four heat waves this past summer — a number that’s likely to rise but already feels overwhelming to residents.

“Even if we just stay the same and have four heat waves every summer for the next 10 years we’re not prepared,” she said.

Heat-related deaths are entirely preventable, and there are still ways for communities to adapt — like greening cities and making sure people have places to cool down. Kim Knowlton, senior scientist and deputy director at the National Resources Defence Council, has hope that the U.N. report will be a wake-up call.

“The science about this has to do with everyone,” Knowlton says. “I hope that people start to demand protections for themselves.”

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Best climate scenario is still too hot for many communities of color

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Carbon tax debate: Nobels and IPCC vs. Trump and Doug Ford

Apologies, future generations: The world has been totally slacking on carbon taxes. And the Nobel prize committee may be trying to give us a hint.

The panel awarded its latest economic prize this week to William Nordhaus, a professor at Yale and the father of climate change economics. He’s best known for creating a model that simulates how the climate and the economy coevolve. It’s now widely used to project the outcomes of climate policies like carbon taxes.

The Nobel committee lauded him for showing that “the most efficient remedy for the problems caused by greenhouse gas emissions would be a global scheme of carbon taxes that are uniformly imposed on all countries.” Nordhaus received the prize on Monday along with New York University economist Paul Romer.

“I wouldn’t say that it’s a coincidence that Nordhaus and Romer won this year,” says Christopher Knittel, a professor of applied economics at MIT. “They both work on sustainable growth. I think the committee probably understands we’re on a path toward unsustainable growth. Their choice underscores the need for policymakers to act.”

A day earlier, the world’s top scientists sent a similar message in a gigantic, comprehensive report outlining the various way we can try to keep the planet habitable. A carbon price “is central to prompt mitigation,” the report says, though “a complementary mix of stringent policies is required.”

It’s a timely reminder. Although there are some regional cap-and-trade programs up and running in California and the Northeast, there’s nothing resembling a carbon tax in the U.S. So here’s another coincidence: The closest thing yet, a “carbon fee,” has a chance of passing next month in Washington state — assuming the multi-million-dollar campaign by oil companies doesn’t convince voters it’s a bad idea.

Washington state’s Initiative 1631 would charge $15 per ton of carbon dioxide, ramping up by $2 per year until the state hits its climate goals. Researchers say an effective carbon price would need to be quite a bit steeper — something in the $40 to $50 range, according to Knittel.

And any effective carbon price would need to rise really fast. Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels would take a carbon price of at least $135 per ton by 2030 — and possibly as high as $5,500 per ton, according to the U.N. report. If that sounds astronomical, it’s just a fraction of the kind of carbon price we’d need by the end of this century: somewhere between $690 to $27,000 a ton (yes, that’s 27 with three whole zeroes!).

So … better late than never? Knittel says the real power of a state-level carbon tax policy is that it could serve as a demonstration for a nationwide policy. That could come in handy if, say, an administration that actually wanted to act on climate change ever came into office.

Carbon taxes may sound like the most boring, straightforward thing in the world, but they remain controversial (and not just in Trump Nation). Just look to Canada, where Ontario’s premier, Doug Ford, has launched a crusade against carbon taxes. “The carbon tax is the absolute worst tax for Canadian families, Canadian businesses, and the Canadian economy,” he tweeted last week. Ford launched a legal challenge against Canada’s federal carbon tax plan in September. People on the other side of the political spectrum have it out for carbon taxes, too.

“If I had the time and heart to comment on Nordhaus’ Nobel, it would be to simply say that Nordhaus was wrong, in ways that may have done as much damage as it’s possible for an economist to do,” wrote climate advocate Alex Steffen in a Twitter thread. “[P]utting the weight of economic authority behind carbon pricing as the only effective strategy for action, helped exclude bolder, and — it turns out — more realistic strategies for regulation, public planning and technological disruption.”

The U.N. scientists acknowledge the many barriers to getting effective carbon taxes passed. The report says carbon prices are a “necessary ‘lubricant’” (their words, not mine!) for climate action, though not enough on their own. That’s because of “a persistent ‘implementation gap’ between the aspirational carbon prices and those that can practically be enforced.”

“The policies are lagging very, very far — miles, miles, miles behind the science and what needs to be done,” Nordhaus said shortly after winning the Nobel. “It’s hard to be optimistic. And we’re actually going backward in the United States with the disastrous policies of the Trump administration.”

Knittel says carbon taxes still make sense, despite the high cost. “By delaying it, it means the right carbon tax was harder than it would have been,” he says. “It’s more costly to act now, but that doesn’t reduce the necessity to act.”

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Carbon tax debate: Nobels and IPCC vs. Trump and Doug Ford

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Spawning an intervention

This story originally appeared in bioGraphic, an online magazine about nature and sustainability powered by the California Academy of Sciences. 

Valérie Chamberland swims like a dolphin, quickly and fluidly, and for most of the past hour she has been darting through the warm, shallow water off the Caribbean island of Curaçao. Now, she is dangling upside down, hovering above a pillow-sized brain coral. Her rubber fins twitch steadily overhead, and as she sips air from the aluminum tank on her back, a stream of bubbles rises from her regulator’s mouthpiece.

The reef spread below Chamberland isn’t one of those flashy, fluorescent gardens seen in calendar photos and nature documentaries. Only a few dozen yards from shore, it lies almost literally in the shadows of a stone jetty, a busy casino, and a Denny’s restaurant. The waters that surround it are murky, and most of its corals are brown and lumpy, sparsely accessorized with bright-purple vase sponges and waving, rusty-red sea fans.

But as anyone who studies coral reefs will tell you, beauty doesn’t necessarily equal health, and this reef has good vital signs. It retains plenty of what reef scientists call “structure” — meaning that it’s three-dimensional, not flattened into rubble or sand — and most of its unlovely lumps are formed by brain coral, one of the sturdiest types of coral in the Caribbean. The reef is lively with fish, and it lies on the outer edge of Curaçao’s wing-shaped coastline, where fast-moving currents sweep out at least some of the island’s pollution and slow the growth of coral-suffocating green algae. It’s also sheltered from major storm damage: Curaçao, which is only 40 miles north of Venezuela, rarely experiences hurricanes.

Chamberland flicks away an agitated crowd of silvery butterflyfish, then descends slightly for a closer look at the mound of brain coral. She inspects the meandering grooves on its surface, looking for the tiny white bumps that appear immediately before its annual spawning. For the butterflyfish, the pinhead-sized bundles of sperm and eggs released during a spawning event are a calorie-rich feast; for Chamberland, they’re the raw materials she needs to further a long-running mission.

Valérie Chamberland descends over a coral reef. bioGraphic. 

Over the past two decades, Chamberland and other scientists throughout the Caribbean — many of them now associated with a research and conservation group called SECORE, which stands for Sexual Coral Reproduction — have stubbornly advanced the art and science of raising coral babies. Through trial and error, these researchers have learned to better predict the quiet, hidden phenomenon of coral spawning, to fertilize coral eggs in the lab, and to foster young corals until they’re ready to grow in the open sea, on a living reef.

Newborn corals are, in their way, as high-maintenance and idiosyncratic as their human counterparts, and the process of raising and releasing them, formally known as “assisted recruitment,” is full of frustrations and disappointments. Thanks to some recent successes and to rising interest from conservationists, however, the job is becoming easier and cheaper. The progress is such that on Curaçao this past June, Chamberland and her colleagues hosted an intensive workshop in assisted recruitment for 10 park rangers, conservationists, biologists, and others from a half-dozen Caribbean islands, intending to both share the techniques they’ve developed and, in time, learn from the experiences of new practitioners.

Chamberland, who moved to Curaçao from Québec nearly a decade ago, sometimes feels as if she’s counting down to a rocket launch: After years of careful preparation, assisted recruitment is nearly ready to blast off into new territory.

On the reef, Chamberland finishes her inspection of the brain coral and leaves the butterflyfish to their vigil. She surfaces and takes off her mask, freeing its rubber strap from her dark hair. The setting sun pinkens her often serious face, and she grins. “Tomorrow night,” she says, her consonants softened by her native French. “It’ll happen tomorrow night.”

Gamete

On the first morning of the Curaçao workshop, Mark Vermeij wants to make two things clear: Raising coral from larvae isn’t easy, and baby corals are not, on their own, going to save the world’s coral reefs. “People have approached us and said, ‘Ah, that’s nice, because now the Great Barrier Reef is fine,’” he tells the participants. “And it’s like, ‘What on earth are you f-ing talking about?’”

Vermeij is a professor at the University of Amsterdam and the research director of CARMABI, a longstanding marine research and conservation center on Curaçao and a key supporter of SECORE. Originally from the Netherlands, he has studied coral spawning here and elsewhere in the Caribbean since the early 1990s. His imposing bulk, gray curls, and often-furrowed brow give him a piratical air, and his blunt opinions, delivered in fluent English, are punctuated with the occasional Dutch exclamation.

In a narrow, air-conditioned classroom at CARMABI headquarters, below a faded photograph of the Dutch king and queen, Vermeij reminds the participants that restoring coral reefs isn’t just about putting more coral in the ocean. It’s about dealing with chronic local problems like coastal development and water pollution — not to mention the multilayered, and increasingly obvious, effects of climate change on ocean habitats worldwide. “This is not a wonder tool,” he says sternly, glaring at the participants. “It will greatly depend on everything else you are doing, and everything else you are doing will depend on where you’re from.”

Despite his gruff manner, it’s clear that Vermeij is as pleased as Chamberland to be hosting this workshop. As the participants introduce themselves and describe their own attempts at coral restoration, Vermeij listens closely, asking questions and offering brusque encouragement.

Workshop organizers and attendees discuss the challenges and potential of sexual coral restoration techniques in various locations around the Caribbean. bioGraphic. 

Most people in this group are new to assisted recruitment, but everyone is familiar with the extraordinary — and extraordinarily complicated — life cycle of coral. That makes them unusual among humans, and unusual in human history, too. Not until the 1980s, after all, did researchers confirm that most corals can reproduce in two distinct ways: sexually and asexually.

Coral polyps, the tiny, tentacled invertebrate animals that, along with their symbiotic algae, form the living part of a coral reef, can reproduce asexually by budding off, or dividing, to form genetically identical versions of themselves. (What most of us think of as one coral — a ball, a column, a branching bouquet — is not a single organism but a colony of cloned polyps, nestled into a calcium carbonate skeleton formed over time by secretions from multiple generations of polyps.) Finger-sized bits of coral colonies can grow quite quickly via asexual reproduction, and conservationists around the Caribbean are beginning to “garden” these fragments: Francesca Virdis, the project coordinator of the Coral Restoration Foundation Bonaire, tells her fellow Curaçao workshop participants that her organization is encouraging the clonal growth of some 12,000 colonies of staghorn and elkhorn coral (Acropora cervicornis and Acropora palmata, respectively) by anchoring fragments on submerged scaffolds made of PVC pipe.

Once these cultivated colonies reach a certain size, they can be relocated and used to supplement the structure of reefs damaged by hurricanes, disease, or human activity. But Virdis and the other workshop participants know that coral gardening isn’t a wonder tool, either. To survive long-term, corals need not only structure but also genetic diversity, which is enhanced through sexual reproduction — the chance combination of sperm and eggs, or gametes, from different colonies. In most coral species, this cross-fertilization takes place during periodic spawning events, when colonies simultaneously release a brief blizzard of eggs and sperm into the open water. While colonies cultivated from fragments can eventually spawn and cross-fertilize, it takes years for any coral colony to reach maturity; the SECORE scientists believe that by cross-fertilizing coral at the beginning of the restoration process, they can bolster the variation corals need to evolve new defenses against changing conditions.

Many of the workshop participants live face to face with these changing conditions. Rita Sellares, the cheerfully determined executive director of FUNDEMAR, a small marine conservation nonprofit in the Dominican Republic, reports that several of her group’s coral gardens were smashed by recent hurricanes. Erik Houtepen, a young park ranger on the tiny island of Sint-Eustatius, says that his park’s gardens, which contained about 500 fragments, were completely destroyed in late 2017 by a double hit from hurricanes Irma and Maria; a few months later, after a laborious reconstruction, the gardens were again knocked flat, this time by a large storm surge. The park is experimenting with tying and gluing fragments directly to its reefs, and with scaffolds that can be sunk to deeper depths, further out of reach of storms. “If any one of you wants to be an intern for us, we could use you,” Houtepen says dryly.

Conservation of any sort is difficult work, and coral reef conservation can test the most optimistic soul: In the Caribbean alone, reefs are beset not only by destructive storms, but also by local pollution, rising ocean temperatures, at least 40 different infectious diseases, and the effects of worldwide ocean acidification. There is evidence that dust storms from the African Sahel region, exacerbated by climate change, carried a type of fungus into the Caribbean that now kills Gorgonian sea fans. Over the past 45 years, the overall extent of coral in the Caribbean has shrunk by more than half, both because colonies are dying off and, for reasons scientists don’t entirely understand, they’re not reproducing very well; in Florida, the extent of some coral species has declined by 90 percent.

While Pacific reefs have long been markedly healthier than those in the Caribbean, a series of enormous bleaching events, beginning in 2016, have affected massive swaths of the Great Barrier Reef and wiped out any remaining complacency among Pacific coral conservationists. (As seen in this earlier bioGraphic feature, Coral “bleaching” happens when ocean temperatures rise to levels that cause polyps to expel the symbiotic algae that give the hosts both their color and their main source of food.) Every experienced coral biologist, no matter where he or she works, has a story about a favorite reef that is forever changed.

Kara Rising, SECORE’s administrative manager, recently closed her psychotherapy practice in Ohio in order to devote herself to ocean conservation, and she’s often struck by the unrelenting emotional toll of conservation work. “There are times when I think, ‘Hey, should we have a bit of group therapy here?’” she says with a laugh.

Yet the grimmest story about the world’s coral reefs is also the simplest. For the conservationists in the Curaçao workshop, hope lies in complexity, in the many overlooked departures from the mean. Some corals are killed outright by bleaching, for instance, but not all; some species withstand it better or recover from it more quickly, and some colonies within species seem to be more resilient, too. Some species, like the Caribbean’s threatened staghorn and elkhorn corals, grow very quickly but are particularly vulnerable to stress; other species, like the brain corals, grow slowly but can tolerate a lot.

bioGraphic.

“Corals are in a critical situation, but they’re not as flimsy as we think,” says Chamberland. “If we give them a chance to deal with just one or two stresses instead of six, some can survive, and those that do are the ones we should be studying. We should be asking, ‘What do they do that makes them win?’”

Chamberland, Vermeij, and the other researchers associated with SECORE have concluded that if they can help preserve variation, they can help preserve hope. And their first step toward preserving hope is to catch some corals in the act — to collect a few hundred thousand coral eggs and sperm as they’re released into the ocean.

In the CARMABI classroom, Chamberland explains the protocol for gamete collection, laying out the cone-shaped nets that will be draped over the coral colonies and the plastic collection tubes that will catch gametes from Diploria labyrinthiformis, the species of brain coral affectionately known as D. lab. The nets are made from tarps, and none of the gear is high-tech — in fact, it’s deliberately designed to be low-tech, accessible to conservationists with even fewer resources than those at this modest field station.

Chamberland describes how gametes are handled back in the lab, long after dark, and how researchers sometimes keep watch on the embryos until the next morning. When she asks if there are any questions, Houtepen raises his hand. “So,” he says hesitantly, “do you sleep during this process?”

Chamberland laughs, but doesn’t answer. “Let’s do this,” she says.

Embryo

The D. labs near Curaçao are most likely to spawn at sunset on Friday, and as the hour approaches, the group’s collective agitation grows. Conversations are louder and an octave higher; the next cigarette is lit by the last. Pickup trucks are loaded with heavy plastic tubs of dive gear, air tanks are stacked and secured, and the collecting tubes and nets are checked and recounted. The bursts of friendly laughter turn jagged.

The phenomenon of mass coral spawning was unknown to science until 1981, when a group of Australian graduate students witnessed a spawning during a nighttime dive on the Great Barrier Reef. Ever since, scientists have been trying to work out the spawning schedules of different species, but it’s not easy. Spawning generally happens at night, and generally about a week after the full moon — corals are thought to have primitive photoreceptors that can detect moonlight — but the precise timing varies by species and location, and some species are more predictable than others. Some, like D. lab, spawn at regular monthly intervals, with only a few colonies spawning each time. Others, like staghorn and elkhorn corals, release their annual hoard of gametes all at once, in the fall, on a date that changes from year to year.

It’s easy to be a day early, or an hour late, and miss a spawning completely, and over the years researchers have spent evening after evening shivering in the ocean, waiting for a spawn they may never see. “It’s a little bit addictive,” says SECORE research director Margaret Miller, who was involved in some of the first studies of coral spawning in the Caribbean. Swimming through a spawning can be oddly exhilarating, and missing one can be agonizing — especially for scientists whose research depends on a decent haul of gametes. “Every year, you’re at risk of getting skunked,” says Miller.

The conservationists in Curaçao are thoroughly infected with the drama of spawning, partly because at some point in their lives, each has been infected with a passion for coral reefs. Every coral enthusiast remembers when he or she discovered the hidden world of reefs, whether it was through Jacques Cousteau television specials (a surprisingly common route, even for younger reef conservationists), with a borrowed mask and snorkel on an idle childhood afternoon, or during a college course taken on a whim. Some were struck first by the colorful beauty of the reefs, or by the abundance and weird variety of its life forms; some were enchanted by scuba diving, which allows even the clumsiest human to float gracefully through an alien world. Some consider the coral life cycle as beautiful and complex as great art. “I find it elegant,” says Vermeij.

Everyone here has also gone to some trouble to look more closely at corals. Few people get near them by accident, even those who grow up by the beach. Coral reefs are very rarely as close to shore as they are in Curaçao, and we air-breathing humans are, of course, perpetual strangers in coral habitat.

Elvira Alvarado, one of the workshop participants, is a professor at the University of Bogotá in Colombia who has been studying coral reproduction since the early 1990s. She learned to dive in the 1970s when she and a group of university friends, after being entranced by the coral reefs on Colombia’s Caribbean coast during a snorkeling trip, rigged up primitive dive gear with borrowed tanks and repurposed life vests. Their methods and equipment would give any modern-day dive instructor the vapors: “We didn’t have gauges, so we’d just guess our depth by the species we saw, and go up when breathing started to get hard,” she remembers with a smile. Dive gear and training are widely available today, but it’s costly, and inaccessible to most people on Earth — including many of those who live closest to coral reefs, and whose lives depend most directly on the fish these ecosystems shelter and the coastal protection they provide.

Given all the time, energy, and passion invested in them, coral spawning dives practically vibrate with nerves, and this one is no exception. Chamberland warns the group against “dive panic” and “drive panic,” which can lead otherwise sober-minded researchers to abandon basic water safety and road rules. Some, in their elated rush back to the lab, have knocked precious vials of gametes off pickup tailgates.

The group splits into two teams, and one heads for the stone jetty where Chamberland dove the previous evening. After donning wetsuits and tanks and checking their gauges, the divers wade into the surf, collection nets and tubes in hand, and swim beyond the jetty. At a signal from Chamberland, they descend, and the noise of waves and traffic abruptly stops, replaced by the rhythmic whoosh of their own breathing and a distant, staticky crackle — the sound of hundreds of fish feeding along the reef.

Valérie Chamberland places a net over a colony of grooved brain coral. bioGraphic. 

Working in pairs, the group takes its cue from the swarms of butterflyfish that have again gathered in hopes of a gamete meal. The divers drape nets over the most popular mounds of D. lab, check the time on the dive computers on their wrists, and wait. Fifteen minutes pass, then 30. One pair of divers points excitedly to the tube at the top of one net: pinkish-gray spheres are floating into the tip. It’s happening! Another pair spots gametes rising out of a net, and then another. As the sun sets and the water starts to darken, the divers cap and detach the collection tubes and gather up the nets, making their way back to shore by the beams of their dive lights.

At the surface, the mood is subdued. The spawn wasn’t as big as everyone hoped it would be; this team has only a few vials of gametes, and none is full. Maybe the other team got more; maybe there will be more tomorrow evening. Maybe it’s just a bad month.

Back in the CARMABI lab, though, spirits rise. The divers argue good-naturedly over which team, and which pair, returned with the most gametes, and when all the tubes are lined up on the lab bench, it turns out that there are more eggs and sperm than the equipment on hand can handle. “A lot of dribbles adds up to a pretty good catch,” says Chamberland. Even more important than volume is variety, and the group has managed to collect gametes from a lot of different colonies. “We have 18 parents!” Chamberland exclaims to Vermeij, who raises his eyebrows comically. “I’m … jealous?” he says. The variation among the gametes is obvious, even to the untrained eye; the batches of egg and sperm bundles range in color from purplish-gray to pink to beige.

The SECORE researchers and workshop participants, who are crowded into the small lab, are still wet from the dive; some are in their swimsuits, with lingering pressure marks from their masks on their faces. But everyone is carefully obeying the laboratory rules: no touching or even leaning over the vials, since sweat and sunscreen can disrupt fertilization. No mosquito repellent anywhere near the lab. The room is closed and muggy — 83 degrees Fahrenheit, to be exact, the current surface temperature of the ocean — and as Chamberland uncaps the vials and mixes the bundles into laboratory pitchers filled with seawater, the group is almost reverently quiet. “You’re making me nervous,” Chamberland jokes. In the pitchers, the bundles are already breaking up, and the sperm and eggs are floating freely.

Assisted recruitment is, in some ways, as much art as science, and some of its steps can’t be precisely expressed in a lab protocol. The SECORE researchers have learned, for instance, to dilute the concentration of sperm in the pitchers so that the resulting larvae have the room — and oxygen — they need to develop. “The water in the pitchers should look like fogged-up glasses,” Vermeij says. When Chamberland says, “I think of it as looking like weak lemonade,” Vermeij, who was her Ph.D. adviser and has worked alongside her for years, looks genuinely puzzled. No two people handle coral gametes in exactly the same way.

“Anybody thinking of trying this at home, so to speak?” Vermeij asks the group. Rita Sellares, of FUNDEMAR, says that one of her graduate students recently made a bare-bones attempt at assisted recruitment, turning Sellares’s office into a makeshift lab and filtering seawater through a swimsuit. To everyone’s astonishment, the larvae survived. “Hey, if it works, it works,” says Vermeij. Coral gametes are frustratingly finicky, but once in a while, they’re not; during a trip to Mexico a few years ago, Vermeij collected a few gamete bundles in a coffee cup, and the resulting larvae did just fine.

Chamberland stands back from the lab bench, satisfied with her weak lemonade. “This is pretty much where we wait for the magic to happen,” she says. Over the next few hours, the gametes will combine to form embryos, and overnight, the embryos will develop into larvae. The spectators wish the gametes luck and adjourn to a late dinner, which they eat at a row of surfside picnic tables and wash down with bottles of Venezuelan pilsner. On the balcony above, cleaned and drying collection nets hang over the railing like so many gray ghosts.

Late that night, restoration technician Kelly Latijnhouwers pours about half of the brand-new embryos — about 100,000 nearly invisible specks — into a plastic water jug and, with a number of workshop participants in tow, drives them across town to the Curaçao Seaquarium. There, in a quiet channel not far from the dolphin show and the shark tank, SECORE has set up a floating coral nursery, an experimental design that looks something like a very sturdy, highly engineered kiddie pool. If it works, it could eventually eliminate the need for a temperature-controlled laboratory, making assisted recruitment more affordable and accessible for small conservation groups.

Latijnhouwers lies belly down on the dock next to the nursery, hoists up the jug of embryos, and carefully tips it in. The workshop participants, seated on the seawall nearby, applaud, and Latijnhouwers scrambles to her feet with a smile, mockingly acknowledging the cheers. It’s close to midnight, and there’s still work to do.

Larva

The SECORE researchers have learned to resist dive panic and drive panic, but they can’t stand to be separated from their coral babies. The morning after the gamete dive, the streets around the CARMABI lab are unexpectedly blocked; hundreds of people are ambling along the main road, merrily throwing colored powder at one another as part of a community charity walk. Latijnhouwers arrives at the lab late, short on sleep, and grumpy about having had to shoulder her way through the crowd. She grew up on Curaçao and likes the informality of island life, but not when tens of thousands of larvae are waiting for her care. “They were f-ing tossing colors on me!” she says, laughing but still outraged.

The larvae in the lab, though, are doing well. They’re now distributed among 64 plastic deli containers, which the scientists refer to as “swimming pools,” and they’re moving slowly through their small puddles of seawater, barely visible but full of potential. “Every one of them could become a great big brain coral. That’s insane, right?” Chamberland says happily.

This morning, teams of workshop participants are using sheets of plastic cling wrap to skim dead sperm off the surface of the swimming pools. It’s fussy, tedious work, and Latijnhouwers soon pulls out her phone and fills the lab with the reggae-soul sound of local musician Stanley Clementina.

Researchers prepare settlement tiles that will be provided to a new generation of coral larvae. bioGraphic. 

Such a large and willing crew of helpers was unimaginable in 2002, when SECORE was founded by German coral researcher Dirk Petersen. Petersen, then working at the Rotterdam Zoo, initially focused on helping zoos and aquariums boost the genetic diversity of their coral collections, but he soon began to consider how assisted recruitment could be used to restore reefs in the open ocean, on a large scale.

Petersen knew that any such large-scale undertaking was a long way off, not only because of the technical challenges but also because at the time, the notion of active restoration was viewed with suspicion, even hostility, by many conservationists. Some thought it just wouldn’t work; some feared it would distract from the more immediate job of protecting reefs; and more than a few disliked the idea of tinkering with a natural process, especially the elegant intricacy of coral reproduction.

In Australia, where the reefs were relatively healthy, restoration was “a dirty word,” says marine biologist and workshop co-organizer Joe Pollock, who spent several years studying corals on the Great Barrier Reef before moving to the Caribbean. “The attitude was, ‘That’s something they do in the Caribbean, because they’re really messed up and don’t have any other options.’” Australian conservationists talked instead about “managing for resilience” — protecting reefs so that corals could, on their own, evolve defenses against new stresses.

In Florida, where the reefs were already desperately degraded, conservationists wondered if any kind of reef restoration was worth pursuing; in an academic journal in 2005, managers of several marine protected areas published an opinion piece called “The Folly of Coral Restoration Programs Following Natural Disturbances in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary.”

Today, the conversation is different. “The paradigm has changed blindingly fast because the decline has happened blindingly fast,” says Miller. “Now, everything is on the table.” In the wake of the 2016 bleaching event, Australian conservationists began asking Caribbean researchers for help with assisted recruitment, and SECORE and other coral reproduction researchers received funding from sources including The Nature Conservancy, the California Academy of Sciences, and Microsoft founder Paul Allen.

“We’re trying to figure out how this fits within the solutions we have at our disposal,” says Pollock, who now heads The Nature Conservancy’s Caribbean coral conservation program. “We’re working on regional issues, trying to increase protection, getting involved with work that’s happening on a local scale, and at the same time trying to develop and disseminate these promising technologies that — I’ll be the first to tell you — are not the solution right now, but could be part of the solution down the line.”

Although discussions of the risks of “tinkering” with reefs continue, resistance has begun to fade. While managers and conservation groups alike continue to manage for resilience, they are seriously considering interventions once considered heretical, from assisted recruitment to the transplantation of corals into new ecosystems to the inoculation of coral polyps with symbiotic algae known to be heat-resistant.

In a quieter but perhaps even more significant departure from conservation tradition, SECORE has expanded its focus beyond critically threatened corals, and its researchers are now developing assisted recruitment techniques for a dozen different species, many of them still common.

“Most of the funds for this kind of work go to endangered species, and that’s a pity, because over and over and over again people are failing with the same species,” says Chamberland. “It’s just not feasible to bring everything back everywhere — some reefs are too degraded.”

The primary goal of reef conservation, these days, isn’t to preserve pristine reefs — most of those are gone — but to preserve at least some reef structure, some habitat for fish and other marine species, some ability to evolve. It’s to help protect Caribbean shorelines from strengthening Atlantic hurricanes, and to beat back the toxic bacteria and reef-suffocating green algae that thrive on degraded reefs. It’s to prevent wholesale coral loss as global temperatures rise, in the hopes of having some diversity left if and when climate stability is restored.

“If we want anything that resembles a coral reef in the future, we’re going to have to put our thumbs in the dike for the next 10 or 20 or 30 years,” says Miller. “We’re going to have to be very actively engaged for decades just to maintain the puzzle pieces, just so we have something to work with when the environment gets fixed.”

While interest in assisted recruitment swells, SECORE researchers are still trying to perfect their techniques — and in the humid warmth of the CARMABI lab, the young D. lab corals are about to enter the riskiest phase of their development.

Polyp

Coral larvae are, basically, tiny blobs of fat. When they finish consuming their fat stores and sink to the bottom of the ocean — a process called “settling” — they metamorphose into polyps, the initially-transparent micro-critters that make up coral colonies. (In some species of coral, polyps produced through internal fertilization are released from their parents with their symbiotic algae already in place; in others, polyps must take up symbionts from the surrounding water.) When polyps mature, they can reproduce asexually by dividing or budding off, or they can reproduce sexually by releasing gametes.

Before polyps can reproduce, though, they have to make it to adulthood, and even in the most successful SECORE experiments, the survival rate of lab-raised polyps during their first year on the reef is about the same as that of their ocean-raised cousins: 10 percent. Improving lab-raised polyps’ chances of survival is the biggest remaining technical challenge for assisted recruitment. “You can upscale all you want, but if you don’t manage to have high enough survivorship, you’re not going to get the end result you’re looking for,” says Chamberland.

The problem could be that lab-raised larvae aren’t as healthy as they might be; the SECORE researchers are careful when mixing gametes not only because they want the resulting larvae to survive, but also because they want the larvae to be in top form before beginning their dangerous journey through polyphood to maturity. Raphael Ritson-Williams, a researcher at the California Academy of Sciences who studies larval settlement, says, “There’s no physical thing you can see in larvae that will tell you they’re not healthy. They’re not sneezing or blowing their noses. But if they’re under stress, it can manifest itself later, and break the cycle of reproduction.”

Survival may also have a lot to do with the neighborhood in which coral larvae choose to settle. And they do, in fact, choose. Even though larvae have no arms, legs, or fins, they can swim, using their tiny hairlike cilia; even though they have no brains, eyes, noses, or mouths, they are surprisingly opinionated.

Colony of brain coral. bioGraphic.

Vermeij and his colleagues have found that in the open water, coral larvae swim toward reef sounds; other researchers have discovered that larvae can sense chemical cues and even perceive color, favoring a particular shade of red — a shade that matches the species of rock-hard red algae, known as crustose coralline algae, they most like to settle next to. Larvae also seem to prefer certain textures, choosing to settle on surfaces that are rough but not too rough. (Since a coral colony can occupy a chosen location for hundreds or even thousands of years — essentially indefinitely, as long as no one interferes with it and its polyps keep multiplying — maybe it’s not all that surprising that larvae are selected to be selective.)

So, like fretful parents of picky children, the SECORE researchers keep presenting their lab-raised larvae with choices, hoping to hit on the ideal menu. Ritson-Williams has found that while larvae like to settle near some species of coralline algae, other species inhibit larval growth. Unfortunately, the helpful and unhelpful species of algae look exactly alike — unless you happen to be a coral larva, or a coral scientist with a microscope and a lot of algal expertise.

Early SECORE experiments used hand-cut clay tiles as a surface for settlement, but soon found that clay tetrapods gave the larvae additional surfaces on which to settle and a better shot at survival. Chamberland and other SECORE scientists are now working with the design-software company Autodesk to develop 3D-printed settlement tiles in a variety of textures and fantastical shapes.

In the CARMABI lab, the D. lab swimming pools have been furnished with an array of clay settlement tiles, and the larvae are starting to make their choices. Though they’re still almost too small to see, Chamberland uses an ultraviolet flashlight to illuminate the corals’ fluorescent pigments, and finds that several glowing green dots have come to rest on the submerged tiles — the first of what she hopes will eventually be thousands of settlers. The odds are daunting, and so are the number of variables. No matter how carefully and thoroughly the SECORE researchers tweak the conditions in these swimming pools, it sometimes seems impossible that one of these pinhead-sized dots could survive to adulthood — much less multiply into a thriving colony. Robert Steneck is a marine biologist at the University of Maine who has helped the Caribbean island of Bonaire improve the resilience of its reefs by protecting the fish species that control algae growth. He cautions that lab-raised corals may never be able to make a cost-effective contribution to reef resilience. “You have to be mindful of natural mortality rates, and of what small fraction of a lot of effort is going to be successful 10 or 20 years down the road,” he says. “And you have to be mindful of the scale at which you’re going to be able to implement these very money- and time- intensive activities.”

But in the shallow ocean near the Seaquarium, just a few hundred yards from the floating coral nursery where Latijnhouwers deposited the rest of the D. lab larvae, is a bright-yellow elkhorn coral colony, a broad, scallop-edged funnel about a meter (3 feet) across. Seven years ago, this colony was a lone dot on a tetrapod in the CARMABI lab; just four years after the tetrapod was planted on the reef, Latijnhouwers was finishing a routine spawning dive when she checked the young colony and saw that it was releasing gametes.

For the first time, she realized, a SECORE-raised colony had completed the coral life cycle, and was contributing to the genetic stock of a living reef. Latijnhouwers, elated, surfaced into the warm night air, tossed aside her regulator, and called out to Chamberland, who was waiting on shore.

“Val!!” she yelled. “Your babies are spawning!!”

Colony

The D. lab corals, if they make it to adulthood, will have to survive in the world as it is: a world in which the climate is changing, the ocean is acidifying, and the forces of politics and history affect both land and sea. Curaçao, a former Dutch colony, became a separate country in 2010, but it remains part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, which oversees its foreign policy.

For almost two centuries, the island was a hub of the Dutch slave trade, and like other Caribbean countries, its multiracial, multilingual society continues to struggle with the painful legacies of slavery and colonialism. Political corruption is commonplace, and political violence is not unknown. But politics, not science, will ultimately determine the future of reefs; most of the work of coral conservation has to happen on land, and in cooperation with policymakers.

Vermeij, who as the director of CARMABI is deeply involved in local conservation efforts, is impatient with the dire story still told by many prominent marine scientists. “The story that comes out of science is such a dark one that a lot of people are like, ‘Well, that was nice — like the dinosaurs, coral reefs were once there, but now they’re over, they’re done.’ If science only paints the obituary of coral reefs, no one’s going to throw money at them.”

He’d like to see conservationists talk less about the very real problem and more about what he sees as the solution: finding and encouraging the variation that will help reefs persist. He also thinks coral advocates should choose where they can do the most good, and, on occasion, concede defeat. “Scientists would be more credible if they would at some point say, ‘Reefs like this no longer deserve attention, let them go,’” he says.

On the last day of the workshop, the group readies its gear for one last dive. This time, they wade into the surf in front of the local Marriott. Latijnhouwers steps on a sea urchin and gets a long spine in her foot, but remains calm as she paddles beyond the waves. “You’re hard as nails,” says Rising.

“Not really,” says Latijnhouwers with a grimace. “This one actually hurts.”

Valérie Chamberland and Erik Houtepen, a park ranger on the island of Sint-Eustatius, look for signs of spawning in grooved brain coral colonies (Diploria labyrinthiformis). bioGraphic. 

When the group descends below the surface, it is confronted with one of the island’s most degraded reefs. There’s little coral here, and there’s a great deal of sand, pebbles, and green, leafy algae. Much has been lost, and much is unlikely to be recovered. But tucked into the crevices of the rocky seawall are a few dozen clay tetrapods — part of an experiment started by the SECORE team last year.

The colonies of threatened elkhorn coral polyps on the tetrapods are just dark smudges, each barely bigger than a thumbprint, but they’re alive and growing. If they can persist until they’re taller than the surrounding banks of green algae, their long-term chances will be good. Some evening years from now, under a waning moon, one or more of these colonies might spawn.

SECORE founder Dirk Petersen hasn’t yet realized his vision of large-scale reef restoration, but these tetrapods are, in fact, a small step toward it. Since they can tumble into a stable position on a reef instead of needing to be hand-placed, they could one day be tossed from boats in bulk, allowing conservationists to sow coral polyps far and wide. However, Petersen emphasizes, there is no ideal technique. “The goal is to create resilience at scale,” he says. “Whatever leads us to that goal is great.”

At the end of the workshop, as the participants get ready to depart for their respective islands, Rita Sellares of FUNDEMAR adds an extra item to her baggage: a box packed with 200 clay settlement tiles. Following her team’s DIY experiments with assisted recruitment in the Dominican Republic, she’s secured funding for a small wet lab and basic equipment, and plans to start a coral nursery.

For the rest of the summer, the participants keep in touch via a long string of WhatsApp messages, exchanging birthday greetings and coral spawning reports. On Sunday, September 2, Kimani Kitson-Walters, a native of Jamaica who works at the Caribbean Netherlands Science Institute on Sint-Eustatius, reports — with celebratory emojis — that Sint-Eustatius’s elkhorn coral colonies were spawning. And the Acropora palmata weren’t finished: “MASSIVE APAL spawning,” he writes excitedly the next night. Early the following morning, he posts photographs of the Petri dishes in his lab. “Is this bundle debris?” he asks, indicating a popcorn-shaped white blob. “Noooo,” replies Latijnhowers. “Your ‘debris’ are two fertilized eggs going through development. Congratulations! You’re an Acropora dad!”

More:

Spawning an intervention

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