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Get ready for another extremely cold winter starting NOW

Get ready for another extremely cold winter starting NOW

5 Nov 2014 6:01 PM

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If you didn’t experience last year’s polar vortex, let me offer a brief ode to The Great Northern Indiana Winter 2013-14: One morning, I woke up to a thermostat reading 36 degrees INSIDE THE HOUSE. It is because I endured you, Winter of 13-14, that I can consider myself a serious BAMF.

Climate change likely contributed to the cold weather carnage that swept the Midwest and eastern parts of the U.S. last winter. And this year, it looks like we’re not going to get a break. Here’s Slate’s Eric Holthaus with some cold comfort:

Over the last few weeks, seasonal climate models have shifted more and more toward the idea that this winter will be a doozy. Now that we’re within shorter range, the odds of recurring cold snaps — at least for the rest of November — are increasingly certain. Over the last few days, shorter-term weather models have locked on to the growing likelihood that — for the Eastern United States, at least — winter starts now.

Now? As in, now-now? Like, early-November-not-even-Thanksgiving-yet, now? C’mon Holthaus, you’re makin’ us noyvous. But according to meteorologists, there’s a super-typhoon set to hit Bering Sea on Saturday that is expected to hasten winter’s coming on the East Coast — and bring well-below freezing temps to the Midwest. Here’s a map of what you can look forward to next week:

It’s not just the cold that’s getting out of control; the west was hit with unprecedented warmth this year — not to mention California’s continuing drought from hell. We know we’re starting to sound like scratched vinyl here, but climate change exacerbates extreme weather. In fact, according to a Stanford study, climate change makes extreme temperatures at least three times more likely. I, for one, am heating up my rice bags.

Source:
Bundle Up: November Is Going to Be Really Cold in the Eastern United States

, Slate.

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Get ready for another extremely cold winter starting NOW

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"Cloud Atlas" Author David Mitchell: "What a Bloody Mess We’ve Made"

Mother Jones

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British novelist David Mitchell is best known as the guy who wrote the great novel that was made into the challenging movie Cloud Atlas. Yet the screen fails to convey the true brilliance of Mitchell, who has been widely hailed as one of the English language’s best prose stylists. He so convincingly captures the patois of disparate characters that one might mistake him as the charismatic frontman for a creative writer’s guild.

Over a 15-year career, Mitchell has earned a cult following for the way his work seamlessly bridges historical, contemporary, and science fiction. Readers of his latest novel, The Bone Clocks, won’t be disappointed. It offers a genre spanning, multistranded narrative that begins in an English pub in 1984 and ends in 2043, when the oil runs dry and a war wages between bands of immortals.

On a recent drive together through San Francisco, the 45-year-old author told me about his “midlife crisis novel,” and why he’s not so confident about the survival of the human race.

Mother Jones: How does it feel to be back in San Francisco?

David Mitchell: It’s where I did my first solo book event ever in 1999. I was living in Japan. It was my first ever time in America, my first book event, first everything. Back then there was no one that wanted to meet me. So I did an urban hike, with trees and a steep hillside and these steps and ended up at the ocean. I had my first meal in a real American diner by the sea.

MJ: The architecture of your books involves interconnected novellas whose characters often turn up unexpectedly. Which comes first, structure or character?

DM: The structure is the attention grabber, and somewhat unusual, but emotional resonance should be something all novelists should want to create. If you don’t care about characters, you’ve got dead bodies on your hands.

For the same reason you can’t make yourself laugh by tickling yourself, you never actually know if you’ve achieved empathy for the character. I start by making the character want something and yearn for something—and what are the holes in their lives? That’s a key to making that bond with the reader. But I needed a theoretical place for the characters to go; they couldn’t all be there at once—which brings us back to structure.

MJ: There’s a musicality in your writing, an elegant single-mindedness. Is this a conscious effort?

DM: I think long and hard on each word, and then I’m revising, revising, revising. For me, and for a lot of writers, writing is mostly rewriting. And for me, at that level, if assonance and alliteration and dissonance feel right, then that’s what I do. I go with those words and not others.

MJ: Talk about your Bone Clocks protagonist.

DM: Holly’s an amalgam girl, a compilation girl, a mixtape girl. She’s pretty solidly working class, though in the middle era of her life she’s writing books. She’s rebellious, says no more than I ever did as a boy, more than I do now—with gay abandon even. My daughter’s not quite the right age yet, but any father of a daughter becomes more feminist than he was before. I hope this knowledge gives me a slightly different way of looking out.

MJ: Recently, you’ve thrown an interesting conceptual bone at the reader by suggesting that your novels all form one über-book, in which characters and themes may overlap and reoccur. If this book is part of a larger universe, then who are you still thinking about?

DM: Right now I think about Hugo, because I realize he’s out there, he’s aging. It’s the end of The Bone Clocks and he’s got the body of a 24 year old. He was born around the same time as me, in the late sixties, and I wonder what he’s up to. At the end of The Bone Clocks, he gets to have his thirties, when most of his contemporaries are in their 60s. He’s a future character.

MJ: Have you heard of the movement, popular among libertarians, called Transhumanism?

DM: Once the book is handed in, the characters are in cryogenic suspension. That belongs in that Transhumanist tradition, doesn’t it? With West Coast attitude, you can cheat death. In a strange way, it peculiarly belongs to the tradition of The Bone Clocks. Is it not a kind of a malady? Is it not indicative of our beauty-obsessed culture, equating being over 40 with being on the threshold of the old folks home? Stop feeling envious of beautiful, healthy young 20-year-olds—not a sideways envy, but a painful blade in the guts. That’s the enemy of the contemporary life, especially when you have other things to be dealing with in the domestic sphere.

MJ: Do you think we handle aging poorly?

DM: If you were an alien anthropologist studying a TV program, you wouldn’t be aware of anyone with white hair other than an occasional anchorman. Terror makes you profoundly age averse. We become sort of mean to seniors: “Why are you holding up my queue?” And so they venture out much less. Japan’s not much better. It’s a Confucian country where in theory they equate age with wisdom and not decrepitude, but you can’t survive as an old person in the middle of Tokyo—you’d get trampled. And so, you don’t see them.

MJ: The last section of your book presents a dim view of what’s to come for us humans. What do you think our future holds?

DM: I’m a country boy and I love trees. The World Without Us talks about how what a great benefit to the planet Earth, the disappearance of human beings would be. It would be lovely, in a really quick time frame—except the nuclear reactors. They, of course, are monstrous and melting for millennia to come, without a power grid to cool the water, to cool the nuclear waste. We’ve damned the planet by failing to keep a lid on radioactive waste. I see myself not just as a citizen of a state but also part of a life form and ecosystem: Humanity is a sentient life form with a wherewithal to be conscious, and what a bloody mess we’ve made.

MJ: Do you think technology could avert disaster?

DM: They can use a computer virus to deactivate Iran’s reactors but a virus can’t stop plutonium from being radioactive. The only way to stop it is not to synthesize the stuff in the first place, but it’s a bit late for that. The best thing about nature is what Agent Smith says in The Matrix: Humans spread and breed until the natural resources are used up, and then move on. What’s the only other life form that does this? The virus.

MJ: The immortals in the story, besides shedding light on our ageism, made me think about the relationship between resource scarcity and climate change. Care to elaborate?

DM: Resource wars can take religious guises or political guises but if there was enough going around none of them would happen. You’re in a drought in a pretty well functioning state, but imagine if you’re in a drought in a loose network of failed states and the place is awash with AK-47s. Gosh, this is getting to be a gloomy thing. But, overpopulation may usher in the Endarkenment. Civilizations do end. That’s why there are new ones. It’s a zero sum game.

At this, Mitchell leans back with a smile, and suggests a question: “What’s your fantasy air guitar solo?”

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"Cloud Atlas" Author David Mitchell: "What a Bloody Mess We’ve Made"

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East Coasters, prepare for three decades of epic flooding

East Coasters, prepare for three decades of epic flooding

8 Oct 2014 4:38 PM

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A new report finds that, thanks to sea-level rise, tidal floods are bathing East Coast cities more than ever. And within the lifetime of a 30-year home mortgage, ever-higher high tides will swamp coastal communities with much more frequency and severity, according to projections based on analysis of 52 tide gauges between Maine and Texas.

Suzanne Goldberg of The Guardian provides the deets: 

The report, “Encroaching Tides: How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten U.S. East and Gulf Coast Communities over the Next 30 Years,” from the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), found most of the towns on America’s east coast will see triple the number of flooding events by 2030.

By 2045, those towns will see 10 times as many tidal floods — and those floods will seep further inland, and last longer, the researchers said.

The study also highlights what coastal cities are already doing to protect their shorelines, calling for state and federal help to plan, fund, and implement resilience projects ASAP. The UCS authors acknowledge that rapid, steep cuts in carbon emissions are probably the only way to reduce the need to move people and structures further inland to higher ground.

But they also point out that a surge in tidal flooding is “essentially guaranteed” while the heat-trapping gases we’ve already set free hang out in the atmosphere doing their warming thing. The report’s call to action: Fortify seaside communities against the coming onslaught of water, and reduce carbon emissions to make sure low-lying areas aren’t permanently submerged later on. At the same time. Quickly.

Yeah, the heavy dose of realism is a bit of a downer for beach lovers and coastal dwellers. At least Climate Central made you a fun interactive map to preview future damage from sea-level rise.

Source:
Encroaching Tides

, Union of Concerned Scientists.

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East Coasters, prepare for three decades of epic flooding

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Will This New Magazine Be California’s Answer to the “New Yorker”?

Mother Jones

Back when editor Doug McGray was envisioning what he wanted his future magazine to look like, he thought about landing at the San Francisco airport. “If I fly to New York for work, when I come home and get off the plane, California looks different,” he says. “The quality of light is different.”

The first issue of California Sunday Magazine lands this Sunday, October 5; it’s a new publication that’s (gulp) in print and (gasp) not based in New York. McGray sees his brainchild as “palpably Californian,” written for a national audience but “inspired by the visual and entrepreneurial culture of the West.”

McGray has spent years working for several publications that define themselves by geography, or at least reference it in their titles: the New Yorker, the New York Times Magazine, and This American Life. Since 2008, he’s been focused on a project so location-specific that if you’re not in the right room on the right night, there’s no way to see it: Pop-Up Magazine, an unrecorded live event whose “issues” consist of performances by authors, illustrators, filmmakers, and graphic designers. (My colleague Michael Mechanic wrote about Pop-Up in a December 2012 issue of Mother Jones).

After Pop-Up Magazine sold out San Francisco’s 2,700-seat symphony hall one night in 2012, McGray started thinking he could do more with the community the project had created. He loved the way it brought people together around stories. A magazine seemed like a logical next step.

He teamed up with Digg publisher Chas Edwards, and early this year the pair announced that they were starting Cal Sunday. Creative director Leo Jung, formerly of Wired and the New York Times Magazine, and photography director Jacqueline Bates, who was the senior photo editor of W Magazine, were early hires.

Why launch a new print publication on the opposite coast from the country’s magazine publishing hub? Being at the heart of so many American subcultures, from tech to entertainment, makes California inherently interesting, McGray says. “One of the reasons the media industry is overconcentrated on the East Coast is that it’s been overconcentrated on the East Coast,” he says. But now, he adds, “I don’t think you need to convince people on the East Coast that things happening in California are important.” California Sunday‘s reporters will range outside the Golden State, too, covering the West, Asia, and Latin America.

McGray expects that the “Sunday” part of Cal Sunday‘s title will also shape the magazine’s identity. Print issues will be delivered with Sunday editions of the LA Times, the San Francisco Chronicle, and the Sacramento Bee. Cal Sunday will also be available online, through apps for Android and iPhone, and by Kindle. By launching on multiple platforms at once, he hopes to avoid the “rough transition to digital” that some print publications have struggled with. Prospective readers curious about what’s in the first issue will have to get their hands on a copy—McGray isn’t telling. But he shared three adjectives he hopes it will evoke: “Smart, surprising, and beautiful.”

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Will This New Magazine Be California’s Answer to the “New Yorker”?

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Northwest states talk green, invest dirty

EXECUTIVE DISORDER

Northwest states talk green, invest dirty

19 Sep 2014 8:39 PM

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You know those proposed coal terminals and the ramped-up oil-train traffic that many Washingtonians and Oregonians vehemently oppose? You know, the ones that, if they all were to go through, would carry five times the potential climate damage of an approved Keystone XL pipeline?

Well, some investigative reporting from the sustainability think-tank Sightline Institute shows that both Pacific Northwest states are stealthily financing these schemes to place the region at the center of the global carbon trade — even as their leaders lambast them.

Oregon’s climate-conscious Gov. John Kitzhaber publicly disapproved of a major coal export proposal that’s since been denied a crucial permit, and Gov. Inslee of the Evergreen State is sowing the seeds of post-carbon prosperity. Meanwhile, both states’ executive branches have been quietly investing in the climate-threatening infrastructure projects.

From the Sightline Daily post by Eric de Place and Nick Abraham:

The Oregon Investment Council (OIC) and the Washington State Investment Board (WSIB) oversee all public investments made for their respective states. … Normally, once invested, funds are very difficult to track. But private equity funds pitch investors like the OIC and WSIB on specific portfolios of investments, highlighting not only the overarching theme of the investment package but often specific companies. While state funds are combined with other monies, investors have a much more specific idea about where their dollars are going. They can’t claim ignorance about its final destination.

In other words, it allows us to follow the money.

Their financial spelunking revealed some outrageous examples of state money invested in fossil fuel ventures. Here are a few:

The two states have combined to pour $350 million into a fund that’s supporting an oil-by-rail facility sending North Dakota shale oil to West Coast refineries and a project aimed at barging coal down the Columbia river for shipment to Asia.
The Oregon Investment Council has invested hundreds of millions in GSO Capital, which recently bankrolled the purchase of an oil train facility on the Columbia River to the tune of $70 million.
OIC also invests heavily in Blackstone Capital, a company that recently sold $962 million worth of oil tankers to Kinder Morgan, the energy giant never runs out of plans to ship fossil fuels through the Northwest.
 WSIB dumped another $250 million in Global Infrastructure Fund II, which invests in pipelines and other fossil fuel transportation projects.

The original article is worth reading if you’re into the nitty gritty details.

There’s really no reason to believe the state governments are deliberately deceiving citizens; it’s probably a case of the governor’s office charged with managing the state not talking to the office down the hall that manages its money.

But the inconsistency will surely irk folks who don’t want dirty freight shipped through their state. Perhaps it’s time for a divestment campaign aimed at state governments.

Source:
How State Public Money Pays for Coal Exports and Oil Trains

, Sightline Daily.

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US Coal Exports Have Erased All The CO2 Savings From the Fracking Boom

Mother Jones

The domestic fracking boom has been widely celebrated as a godsend in the fight against climate change. In 2007, cheap natural gas began replacing dirtier coal as the fuel of choice in US power plants. By 2012, the switchover was annually saving an estimated 86 million tons of CO2, the carbon equivalent of taking 21 million cars off the road. That’s obviously a huge accomplishment, but it comes with a lesser known catch: All of that coal we’re no longer using is still getting dug up, sold off, and spewed into the atmosphere.

The carbon pollution savings from our switch from coal to gas has been more than canceled out by an increase in our coal exports, according to a recent study by Shakeb Afsah of the group CO2 Scorecard. After the domestic market for coal dried up in 2007, US exports of steam coal increased by 83 million tons, resulting in the release of an additional 149 million metric tons of CO2. That’s 73 percent more CO2 than Americans have saved so far by ditching the black stuff.

The study is mentioned today in a great story by AP’s Dina Cappiello, who looks at whether the coal exports will ultimately increase carbon emissions. Coal companies point to studies suggesting international demand for coal is fairly inelastic, meaning that if US coal exports suddenly disappeared, they would simply be replaced by coal from somewhere else. Yet other studies conclude that the US exports depress prices, driving up demand and delaying a switch to cleaner options.

As I’ve previously noted, huge new coal export terminals proposed on the West Coast have become the latest flash points in the climate wars. Cappiello points out that a single ship full of Appalachian coal, exported from Virginia to South America, contains enough greenhouse gas to match the annual emissions of a small American power plant.

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US Coal Exports Have Erased All The CO2 Savings From the Fracking Boom

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You’d Scream, Too, If You Were This Close to a Collapsing Iceberg

Mother Jones

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Climate change is melting ice at both ends of the planet—just ask the researchers who published two papers in May saying that a major expanses of antarctic ice are now undergoing a “continuous and rapid retreat” and may have “passed the point of no return.”

As the poles melt, icebergs are breaking off and drifting with greater ease, creating a world of problems for humans and animals alike. In Antarctica, warmer winters mean icebergs aren’t held in place as they once were, and are now colliding with the ocean floor more frequently, laying waste to a complex ecosystem. In Greenland, summer icebergs— like one twice the size of Manhattan that broke off 2012—can clog up shipping lanes and damage offshore oil platforms.

But whether climate change set it free or not, even a single ‘berg can be dangerous if you get too close, as this couple discovered when they took a look at one floating off the coast of Newfoundland, in eastern Canada.

h/t to Minnesota Public Radio News for finding this one.

Continued – 

You’d Scream, Too, If You Were This Close to a Collapsing Iceberg

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Now Google Street View is mapping gas pipeline leaks

what’s that smell?

Now Google Street View is mapping gas pipeline leaks

Emmadukew

Some of those Google cars that drive around photographing streetscapes and embarrassing moments have captured something extra — something that should embarrass major utilities. The cars were kitted out by University of Colorado scientists with sensors that sniff out natural gas leaking from underground pipelines. These methane-heavy leaks contribute to global warming, waste money, and can fuel explosions.

The sensor-equipped cars cruised the streets of Boston, New York’s Staten Island, and Indianapolis. They returned to sites where methane spikes were detected to confirm the presence of a leak. The results were released Wednesday by the Environmental Defense Fund, which coordinated the project, revealing just how leaky old and metallic pipelines can be, such as those used in the East Coast cities studied, particularly when compared with noncorrosive pipes like those beneath Indianapolis.

About one leak was discovered for each mile driven in Boston, Mass.:

EDF

The findings were similar in Staten Island, N.Y.:

EDF

In Indianapolis, Ind., by contrast, about one leak was found for every 200 miles that the cars covered:

EDF


Source
Natural gas: Local leaks impact global climate, Environmental Defense Fund

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Now Google Street View is mapping gas pipeline leaks

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The Polar Vortex Is Coming Back Next Week

Mother Jones

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This story originally appeared in Slate and is republished here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

Remember the polar vortex? Weather so cold that boiling water froze in midair?

Well buckle up, America. We’re getting another dose of polar air next week, and just in time for what is normally the hottest week of the year.

While next week’s mid-summer cold snap won’t send you rushing for the nearest space heater, its origins are similar to the cold snaps that defined the brutal winter just past.

The same basic large-scale weather pattern has been settled in over North America for months now, and it even has a name: the ridiculously resilient ridge. Coupled with the occasional cut-off low pressure center dawdling over the Great Lakes region (next week’s will camp out over Quebec), it’s been a recipe for extreme warmth on the West Coast and colder than average weather out East. On the west side of the Rockies, tropical Pacific air gets funneled northward from around Hawaii toward Alaska while California dries out and roasts; on the other side, cold air from the Yukon cascades southward toward the Midwest and East Coast.

Winter 2013-14: The result of multiple polar vortexes NOAA National Climatic Data Center

But before I go any further: North America’s polar vortex-filled winter was almost certainly overhyped. I’ll probably get loads of hate mail from fellow meteorologists for even invoking it here—and in a strict sense, they’re right. The polar vortex isn’t a new phenomenon, nor was it behind every cold snap of the past six months. According to NOAA, while last winter was below average (by one degree Fahrenheit), winters are warming for virtually every corner of the continental United States (save one corner of southwest Louisiana).

This winter was an aberration, not the rule—a dip in the long-term trend of global warming. Further proof: the first five months of 2014 were collectively the fifth warmest such period globally since records began. This winter was a temporary cold blip in a small corner of the Earth. We just happen to live there.

As for the polar vortex itself, its resonance within the American zeitgeist is proof that sometimes it helps us cope to have something special to blame for all the crazy weather (even if it’s not always totally scientifically correct in popular usage). That’s OK. For the science purists, there’s a great explainer of the phenomenon by Weather Underground’s Jon Erdman and perhaps an even better one (with stunning visuals) by NASA’s Eric Fetzer. As crazy as it sounds, there’s even a line of scientific evidence that connects an increasing frequency of extreme weather events (like the cold snaps of earlier this year) to abnormal shifts in the jet stream caused by melting Arctic sea ice and global warming. It’s a hot topic of debate right now among climate scientists.

The forecast for mid-July: look familiar? NOAA Climate Prediction Center

As for next week’s weather, polar air will again be spilling southward from the Arctic Ocean. That’ll be good enough to convert what’s typically Chicago’s hottest week of the year to an unseasonably pleasant early Autumn-style respite that will have folks begging for more. Chicago’s forecast high of 72 degrees Fahrenheit next Wednesday is historically much more likely to happen on September 16th than July 16th.

Cooler than normal weather is expected across much of the eastern two-thirds of the country as well, with mild temperatures from Boston to New York City to Washington, though not nearly as dramatic as in the Midwest. All in all, you really can’t ask for much better weather than what’s on offer next week.

Though at some point, enough is enough. A reverse trajectory model shows the air supplying next week’s mid-summer Chicago cold snap is currently (as of Thursday) sitting over Canada’s far North. Let’s hope the atmosphere gets all this out of its system before December. But for now? Long live the polar vortex.

NOAA Air Resources Laboratory HYSPLIT model

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The Polar Vortex Is Coming Back Next Week

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Oakland votes to keep coal and oil trains away

get out!

Oakland votes to keep coal and oil trains away

Paul Sullivan

The working-class city of Oakland, Calif., wants to stop trains carrying crude, coal, and petroleum coke from reaching local refineries and export terminals.

The city council voted unanimously on Tuesday evening to “oppose” the “transportation of hazardous fossil fuel materials” along existing rail lines and through “densely populated” and waterfront areas — which includes much of the city.

The city will now formally urge California and regional governments to take action on oil-train safety, and will consider formally opposing projects that threaten to bring fossil fuel–bearing trains into Oakland.

Lawmakers in the Californian cities of Davis and Berkeley have passed similar resolutions that attempt to block oil trains. San Francisco is considering something similar too. Tuesday’s vote was particularly significant, given that Oakland operates a large port, which has recently been rejecting coal industry efforts to use its terminals for exports. Like Berkeley and San Francisco, Oakland, which is also in the Bay Area, is located close to major oil refineries, some of which are being expanded.

Local governments up and down the West Coast have been voting to keep coal-carrying trains out of their communities, aiming to protect themselves from coal-dust pollution and to prevent coal mined in the Intermountain West from reaching power plants in Asia.

Secrecy by railway operators makes it difficult for anybody in Oakland, or in any other city that’s home to an extensive rail network, to know for sure whether crude oil is being hauled through their communities. But oil trains are increasingly common in California and other states, as drillers in Canada, North Dakota, and other parts of the U.S. turn to rail cars to move their products to refineries.

The morning after Oakland’s vote, the Natural Resources Defense Council published results of a new analysis revealing that nearly 4 million residents in California’s Bay Area and Central Valley could be in danger should an oil train be involved in an accident. The NRDC found that crude-by-train deliveries spiked in California to 6 million barrels last year — up from a mere 45,000 barrels in 2009.

Local ordinances probably won’t be effective in limiting rail transportation of fossil fuels. Industry argues that only the federal government has the legal right to regulate such shipments. Unfortunately, the feds are doing a shoddy job of it.

“There’s a question over the ability of cities, or anyone else, to regulate the railways, if that entity is not the federal government,” said Roger Lin, a staff attorney for the nonprofit Communities for a Better Environment, which advocated for Tuesday’s vote. “But I feel that if as many cities as possible do this, it sends a great message — a very positive message — to the federal government.”

As if to truly sink the boot into the bloated body of the fossil-fuel industry, the Oakland City Council also approved a fossil-fuel divestment bill Tuesday might. Among other things, the city will now urge its pension funds to dump their dirty-energy stocks.

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.Find this article interesting? Donate now to support our work.Read more: Climate & Energy

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Oakland votes to keep coal and oil trains away

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