Tag Archives: el nino

This year’s global hurricane boom could go into overdrive

The powerful weather pattern known as El Niño has been blamed for massive wildfires, crippling droughts, and global food shortages. And it’s looking increasingly likely that another one is on the way.

The latest outlook from the National Weather Service, out Thursday, says there’s a 70 percent chance that El Niño will arrive before the end of the year. Summertime outlooks for El Niño are generally pretty accurate, so it’s a big deal that the weather pattern is still in the forecast.

Another El Niño would carry far-reaching consequences for the world’s weather, one of which may have already arrived: Hurricanes and typhoons have been popping up more often than normal this year. (Both are place-specific names; the meteorological term for these storms is tropical cyclone.) El Niño warms the waters of the Pacific Ocean, providing additional fuel for tropical cyclones and increasing their activity by about 15 percent.

As of Thursday, according to Grist’s analysis of available weather data, cyclone activity in the Pacific Ocean is running about 42 percent above normal; in the Indian Ocean, it’s about 40 percent above normal. But in the Atlantic, it’s a whopping 370 percent above normal. Some of this is just random chance, but at least in the Pacific, the early signs of El Niño have already arrived.

All this has already led to several cyclone disasters in a season that’s just getting started.

In May, Cyclone Mekunu struck Oman, bringing two years’ worth of rainfall in a few hours and creating a huge swath of temporary lakes in one of the driest deserts on Earth. This week, more than 600,000 people were evacuated in China’s Fujian province before Typhoon Maria made landfall. Meanwhile storm-weary Puerto Rico received a scare from Hurricane Beryl, before it fizzled shortly after reaching the Caribbean.

Earlier this month, Typhoon Prapiroon kicked off a record-breaking torrential downpour in southern Japan. More than 70 inches of rain have fallen — about four-months worth in 11 days — a precipitation level on par with what Texas experienced during Hurricane Harvey last year. More than 200 people have died so far as a result, and the damage is so widespread that Japanese officials are comparing it to the 2011 earthquake and subsequent tsunami.

To be clear, El Niño is a natural, cyclical phenomenon that the Pacific Ocean has undergone for millennia. And just because there’s an El Niño brewing doesn’t mean every rainstorm everywhere is connected to it. But there’s growing evidence that climate change is starting to make stronger El Niños happen more often. And that evidence, combined with the fact that climate change is increasing cyclone-related rainfall intensity anyway, is easily enough implicate human activity in the worst of  floods that occur against the backdrop of an El Niño year.

We need to look back only to 2015 — the last visit from El Niño — to find the busiest tropical cyclone season in recorded history. So far, this year is just a storm or two off that pace.

Over the past 15 years, the National Weather Service has called for an impending El Niño in their July outlooks six times. They’ve been wrong only once, in 2012. Sure, they could be wrong this year, but don’t bet on it. If the building El Niño arrives, global air temperatures will surge, lagging a few months behind the warmer oceans. That would give 2019 a good shot at knocking off 2016 as the warmest year on record. With a strong El Niño, global temperatures might even tiptoe across the 1.5 degree-Celsius mark — temporarily crossing a major milestone that climate campaigners are fighting to prevent.

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This year’s global hurricane boom could go into overdrive

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A building El Niño in 2018 signals more extreme weather for 2019

In case you couldn’t get enough extreme weather, the next 12 months or so could bring even more scorching temps, punishing droughts, and unstoppable wildfires.

It’s still early, but odds are quickly rising that another El Niño — the periodic warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean — could be forming. The latest official outlook from NOAA and Columbia University gives better-than-even odds of El Niño materializing by the end of this year, which could lead to a cascade of dangerous weather around the globe in 2019.

That’s a troubling development, especially when people worldwide are still suffering from the last El Niño, which ended two years ago.

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These early warnings come with a caveat: Predictions of El Niño at this time of year are notoriously fickle. If one comes, it’s impossible to know how strong it would be.

When it’s active, El Niño is often a catch-all that’s blamed for all sorts of wild weather, so it’s worth a quick science-based refresher of what we’re talking about here:

El Niño has amazingly far-reaching effects, spurring droughts in Africa and typhoons swirling toward China and Japan. It’s a normal, natural ocean phenomenon, but there’s emerging evidence that climate change is spurring more extreme El Niño-related events.

On average though, El Niño boosts global temperatures and redistributes weather patterns worldwide in a pretty predictable way. In fact, the Red Cross is starting to use its predictability to prevent humanitarian weather catastrophes before they happen.

All told, the the U.N. estimates the 2016 El Niño directly affected nearly 100 million people worldwide, not to mention causing permanent damage to the world’s coral reefs, a surge in carbon dioxide emissions from a global outbreak of forest fires, and the warmest year in recorded history.

In Ethiopia, it spawned one of the worst droughts in decades. More than 8.5 million Ethiopians continue to rely on emergency assistance, according to the UN. That includes some 1.3 million people — a majority of whom are children — who have been forced to migrate from their homes.

Initial estimates show that, if the building El Niño actually arrives, 2019 would stand a good chance at knocking off 2016 as the warmest year on record. With a strong El Niño, next year might even tiptoe across the 1.5 degree-Celsius mark — the first major milestone that locks in at least some of global warming’s worst impacts.

Recently, the United Kingdom’s Met Office — the U.K’s version of the National Weather Service — placed a 10-percent chance of the world passing the 1.5 degree Celsius target before 2022. That target was a key goal of the 2015 Paris climate agreement because a sharp upward spike in temperature that severe, if sustained, would be potentially catastrophic — causing, among other impacts, “fundamental changes in ocean chemistry” that could linger for millennia, according to a draft UN report due out later this year.

Another El Niño is bad news, but it has been inevitable that another one will happen eventually. Knowing exactly when the next one is coming will give those in harm’s way more time to prepare.

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A building El Niño in 2018 signals more extreme weather for 2019

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2017 will be the warmest year in history without an El Niño.

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2017 will be the warmest year in history without an El Niño.

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Science Just Proved That Donald Trump Is Totally Wrong

This September was the hottest on record. Donald Trump loves to tweet about how climate change is a hoax, especially when he personally feels cold. Because, you know, if global warming is really real, then it will never be cold anywhere ever again. (Just kidding. Winter is still a thing.) He was at it again on Monday, tweeting that since it was “really cold outside,” we “could use a big fat dose of global warming!” Sick burn, Donald! Indeed, it’s been kind of cold on the East Coast over the last week. But, Trump’s local weather report notwithstanding, 2015 is still on track to be the warmest year on record, globally. And today, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released data showing that this September was the hottest September on record (the records go back to 1880), following an August that also experienced record-breaking heat. Here’s NOAA’s latest map, showing that in September, much of the globe had record or above-average temperatures: NOAA The dark red blob off the US West Coast is El Niño, which is continuing to strengthen and is expected to produce above-average rain and snowfall in California this winter (although probably not enough to end the state’s epic drought). Sorry, Donald. I think we have a big enough dose of global warming already. Originally posted here:  Science Just Proved That Donald Trump Is Totally Wrong ; ; ;

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Science Just Proved That Donald Trump Is Totally Wrong

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Your plane’s ETA is wrong, and it’s the climate’s fault

Your plane’s ETA is wrong, and it’s the climate’s fault

By on 13 Jul 2015commentsShare

To most people, hopping on a plane from Hawaii to the East Coast and getting in way earlier than expected is just a stroke of luck — little more than an excuse for a self-congratulatory coffee from one of the 200 Starbucks lining the airport terminal. But to Hannah Barkley, a PhD student in oceanography at MIT who is about to put you to shame, it’s a scientific phenomenon worth investigating.

Barkley enjoyed one of these lucky trips on her way back from doing field work in Hawaii not too long ago. Back on campus, she asked Kris Karnauskas, a researcher in the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s Geology and Geophysics Department, why her flight was so off, and the two subsequently got lost in decades worth of wind speed data and flight times between Honolulu and major West Coast cities. Long story short: There’s a strong link between those lucky flights and fluctuations in climate.

In a paper published today in Nature Climate Change, Karnauskas, Barkley, and two of their colleagues report that about 88 percent of the variability in domestic flight times is linked to variability in atmospheric circulation. This is largely thanks to a combination of El Niño events — those annoyingly irregular bouts of high Pacific Ocean temperatures — and the so-called Arctic Oscillations — winds that circulate the North Pole, periodically confining the cold arctic air to the pole or letting it escape down to the mid-latitudes.

As the climate changes, both of these atmospheric factors will likely change, meaning the average length of a flight could change, too — which, in turn, could have a real impact on climate change. (Phew, that’s a lotta “change.”) Here’re the numbers from a press release:

According to the study, there are approximately 30,000 commercial flights per day in the U.S. If the total round–trip flying time changed by an average of one minute, the amount of time commercial jets would spend in the air would change by approximately 300,000 hours per year. This translates to approximately 1 billion gallons of jet fuel, which is approximately $3 billion in fuel cost, and 10 billion kilograms of CO2 emitted, per year.

“We already know that as you add CO2 to the atmosphere and the global mean temperature rises, the wind circulation changes as well—and in less obvious ways,” says Karnauskas.

Depending on whether that change is an increase or a decrease in average flight times, this could be good news or bad news for the rest of us, climactically speaking. Karnauskas eventually wants to look at all global flights, according to the press release. In the mean time, perhaps domestic airlines should take note:

In reflecting on the findings of this project and the simple question Barkley had initially asked, Karnauskas says one of the biggest surprises is that the airline industry doesn’t seem to be aware of the flight time patterns beyond the day-to-day.

“The airline industry keeps a close eye on the day-to-day weather patterns, but they don’t seem to be addressing cycles occurring over a year or longer,” he says. “They never say, ‘Dear customer, there’s an El Niño brewing, so we’ve lengthened your estimated flight duration by 30 minutes.’ I’ve never seen that.”

Maybe you haven’t noticed, Karnauskas, but we humans aren’t the best at planning for — or even acknowledging — climate variability.

Source:
Air Travel and Climate: A Potential New Feedback?

, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

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Your plane’s ETA is wrong, and it’s the climate’s fault

Posted in Anchor, FF, G & F, GE, LG, ONA, Plant !t, Radius, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Your plane’s ETA is wrong, and it’s the climate’s fault

How 9 Major Papers Deal With Climate-Denying Letters

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The Los Angeles Times took a stand against climate misinformation on its letters page. Will other newspapers follow its lead? M. Unal Ozmen/Shutterstock If you’ve looked through the letters sections of US newspapers, you’ve probably read that human-caused global warming is a “hoax” and a “myth.” You’ve also likely read about how “mankind cannot change the earth’s climate” and how the carbon dioxide we release isn’t a “significant factor” driving global temperatures. But recently, the Los Angeles Times took a stand against this type of misinformation. Paul Thornton, the paper’s letters editor, wrote that he doesn’t print letters asserting that “there’s no sign humans have caused climate change.” Why? Because, he wrote, such a statement is a factual inaccuracy, and “I do my best to keep errors of fact off the letters page.” He cited the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s recent statement that scientists are at least 95-percent certain humans are causing global warming. Does this mean the Times will never publish a letter skeptical of climate change? Not necessarily. Thornton told Climate Desk that he evaluates all letters on “a case-by-case basis” and that he would consider running one from a climate scientist with “impeccable credentials” who disagreed with the scientific consensus. But he says those letters are unusual. “I don’t get a lot of nuance from people who question the science on climate change,” he explains. Rather, he says, letters frequently portray climate change as a “hoax” or a “liberal conspiracy.” Thornton’s announcement drew praise from some scientists and activists, and Forecast the Facts, an advocacy group “dedicated to ensuring that Americans hear the truth about climate change,” launched apetition drive calling on other major papers to follow suit. “The idea that opinion pieces should be based in the realm of facts is nothing new,” argues Brad Johnson, the group’s campaign manager. So how do other newspapers handle climate-denying letters? Climate Desk contacted editors across the country to find out. The Washington Post The Washington Post was one of several papers that said they agreed with the Los Angeles Times’ policy against running clearly inaccurate letters but argued that this still leaves significant room for publishing climate skepticism. “It’s our policy as well not to run letters to the editor that are factually inaccurate, so we wouldn’t publish a letter that simply says, ‘there’s no sign humans have caused climate change,’” Washington Post letters editor Mike Larabee said in an email. “That’s a broad absolute that doesn’t take into account the existence of large amounts of science indicating otherwise.” He added, however, that the Post wants its letters section to reflect a “broad spectrum” of views and that it has “published letters that are skeptical or raise questions about the scientific consensus. In general, these have been letters that we think make informed and interesting points challenging the science or the way it’s used. It’s a complex topic that’s no more above critical scrutiny than anything else.” Larabee pointed to recent letters printed by the Post, including one that stated, “Remember, had there not been climate change, we’d never have gotten out of the Ice Age.” The Dallas Morning News The Dallas Morning News doesn’t have “a firm policy” on climate change letters, according Michael Landauer, the paper’s digital communities manager, though he added that he plans to discuss the matter further internally. “In the past, we have run letters where people express doubt or take shots at those who accept the climate change consensus, but I’m not sure I would print one that says flat-out that there ‘is no sign’ climate change is caused by humans,” he wrote in an email. “It may be their underlying belief on which they base their letter, but if someone were to assert that in that way, I don’t think I’d allow it.” The Tampa Bay Times Tim Nickens, editor of editorials at the Tampa Bay Times, said that his paper has a “broad policy” that letters must be accurate. He said the paper probably wouldn’t print a letter asserting that “humans aren’t contributing to climate change at all” if that claim wasn’t backed up by scientific studies. He added that letters are assessed on a “case-by-case basis.” USA Today Brian Gallagher, editorial page editor at USA Today, said his paper has an “aggressive” fact-checking process that applies to all letters and op-eds and that it won’t print anything that is “flatly false.” Beyond that, he said, the paper gives letter-writers “as much latitude as possible…to express their opinions.” USA Today’s editorial board—which Gallagher oversees—has a clear stance on global warming: It’s real; there’s overwhelming evidence humans are causing it; and urgent action is needed. But Gallagher says that none of those positions is “completely closed out” from debate in the paper, so “it depends on the phrasing of the particular letter.” He explained that although the bar for disputing climate change is increasingly high, the paper might allow a writer to cite contrarian scientists in order to argue against the scientific consensus. Gallagher argued that the IPCC’s 95-percent certainty that humans are warming the planet doesn’t mean that contrary views should be left out of the paper. “Sometimes the 5 percent is right,” he said. “You have to give people who believe the 5-percent opinion their say.” So how does this play out in practice? Last week, USA Today published an editorial calling for action to mitigate and adapt to climate change. It also ran an “opposing view”column from Joseph L. Bast, president of the “free-market” Heartland Institute, who made the misleading argumentthat “no warming has occurred for the past 15 years.” On Thursday, USA Today printed a range of responses to its editorial, including a letter that asked: Could you please tell me why Americans should believe your editorial as opposed to the opposing view written by Joseph Bast, president of the Heartland Institute? His response makes as much sense to me as what you have written. The theme now is that so many things are tied to global warming, whether it be early snowstorms or the number of hurricanes this year. The American people are rightly confused, and all we can do is feel the weather. In Charlotte, we have had a colder than normal winter, spring and summer, so I am going with no global warming. The Plain Dealer Cleveland’s Plain Dealer treats its letters section as essentially self-correcting. “We don’t censor letters to fit our editorial board agenda…although our editorial board’s position is that global warming is happening and that the world needs to respond more urgently,” said Elizabeth Sullivan, opinion director for the Northeast Ohio Media Group, in an email. Sullivan said that the Plain Dealer tries not to publish “nonfactual” assertions like the hypothetical one cited by the Los Angeles Times (“there’s no sign humans have caused climate change”). But she suggested that a letterthe paper did run this summer—which claimed that “[s]ince there is no increase in temperatures, there certainly is no support for a greenhouse effect from carbon dioxide”—had been effectively refuted by subsequent letter-writers: Our readers, who include many scientists with expertise in this area, since Cleveland is home to a large NASA research center, offer their own corrective to readers who, in their view, hit foul balls in this arena. The July 15 [letter] you cite…was challenged by several readers in letters that we published in the following week. One of those letters noted that the July 15 letter writer did not provide specific data to back up his assertions, then discussed in detail the way long-since-discredited data are often used to support such assertions. This pattern tends to repeat itself when we carry letters and columns on this topic. The Houston Chronicle Jeff Cohen, executive editor, opinions and editorials, for The Houston Chronicle, has a similar take. “Letters columns are reflective of the community’s opinion, and, occasionally, even ill-informed writers get their say in print,” he said. “The letters are a continuing dialogue, and you hope that maybe the next one you receive corrects or addresses the issues that are contentious in the previous one.” Cohen added: “The goal is to provide a venue for the varying voices of Houston. The editorial page and the letters column is the marketplace of ideas. It’s the place where we have debates…A debate often happen because a wrong idea has been put forward.” The Denver Post “We will publish letters skeptical that humans are causing climate change, depending on what the rest of the content is,” said Denver Post editorial page editor Vincent Carroll in an email. In January, his paper ran a letter arguing that human-caused global warming is a “scam” perpetrated by “long-discredited propagandists” seeking to protect their government funding. Carroll expanded on his answer in a column Friday, writing that he is “reluctant to shut down reader discussion on issues in which most scientists may share similar views.” Carroll referenced a debate that took place in the Post’s letters section following the paper’s publication of a July column in which Charles Krauthammer criticized President Obama’s climate policy: Over a period of weeks, we published letters back and forth in reaction, covering issues such as the reliability of climate models, degree of scientific consensus and natural climate variability. Most skeptics of any sophistication recognize that global warming has occurred and appreciate that some or much of it in recent decades could be caused by human-generated greenhouse gas emissions. But they tend to believe, for example, that there are more uncertainties in the science than generally conceded, that the relative dearth of warming over the past 15 or more years is a blow to the models and that the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has demonstrated consistent bias in favor of alarmist interpretations. Surely readers should be free to debate such points. The San Diego Union-Tribune Asked on Twitter if his paper would “follow suit” after the Los Angeles Times announced its policy on climate change letters, San Diego Union-Tribune editorial and opinion director William Osborne responded, “No,” and added that his paper would “continue to print a full range of views on all issues.” Osborne subsequently elaborated over email: “We have always followed a policy of not publishing material in the newspaper that we know to be factually inaccurate; that’s nothing new for us, nor, I suspect, most newspapers. And, yes, we will continue to publish a full range of views on all issues. Those policies are not mutually exclusive.” Asked whether he considered the example cited by the Times—”there’s no sign humans have caused climate change”—to be factually inaccurate, Osborne responded: Yes, I do consider it to be factually inaccurate. I subsequently had a discussion with our letters editor to reaffirm our policy. And, to be clear, the editorial position of this paper for some time now has been that we accept the science that says the globe is getting warmer, and that it is caused in part by human activity. The question, in our view, is what to do about it. Reasonable people will differ about that, as the lack of action by Congress and many governments throughout the world demonstrates.

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How 9 Major Papers Deal With Climate-Denying Letters

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How 9 Major Papers Deal With Climate-Denying Letters

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Global Study of Monsoons Finds Ocean Variations Have Driven Recent Shifts

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Global Study of Monsoons Finds Ocean Variations Have Driven Recent Shifts

Posted in alternative energy, eco-friendly, FF, G & F, GE, Monterey, ONA, PUR, solar, solar power, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Global Study of Monsoons Finds Ocean Variations Have Driven Recent Shifts