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Donald Trump Roundup For Monday Evening

Mother Jones

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Donald Trump has been falling in the polls since last Friday. How has he responded to this pressure? Let us count the ways:

Interrupted a rally specifically to gather his gaggle of reporters and complain that a fire marshal had restricted attendance. He implied it was a political decision. This was his second attack on a fire marshal in three days.
Kept up his drumbeat of attacks on Khizr Khan. His right-hand-man, Roger Stone, issued a tweet suggesting that Khan was a “Muslim Brotherhood agent.”
Asked about Khan’s claim that he had never sacrificed anything, said that employing thousands of people was a sacrifice.
Lied about receiving a letter from the NFL asking him to change the dates of the presidential debates so they weren’t opposite football games.
Praised Paul Nehlen, Paul Ryan’s primary challenger.
Suggested that he might take away the New York Times’ press credentials. He has already banned the Washington Post from his events.
Told a crowd of supporters, “I’m afraid the election’s gonna be rigged, I have to be honest.”
Fired the aide who planned the Republican convention.

Have I missed anything? Keep in mind that this is just over the past couple of days. Is it any wonder that Republicans are starting to wonder if Trump is suffering from some kind of genuine mental derangement?

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Donald Trump Roundup For Monday Evening

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There’s a new global climate deal that you probably haven’t heard of yet

European Climate Action and Energy Commissioner Miguel Arias Canete and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. REUTERS/Heinz-Peter Bader

Oh, Vienna

There’s a new global climate deal that you probably haven’t heard of yet

By on Jul 25, 2016 4:28 pmShare

The nations of the world are on the verge of reaching a new deal to fight climate change — while also protecting the ozone layer.

Talks in Vienna, Austria, have been leading toward a worldwide agreement to phase out the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). They were widely adopted to replace chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in air conditioners and refrigerators after it was discovered that CFCs were creating a hole in the ozone layer. The Montreal Protocol, a landmark treaty, phased CFCs out. But while HFCs don’t damage the ozone layer, it turns out they are potent greenhouses gases, trapping thousands of times more heat than carbon dioxide, so now they need to go too. Researchers think that by cutting HFCs globally, we could prevent up to 0.5 degrees C of global warming by 2100.

Negotiators are currently working on adding an HFC-cutting amendment to the Montreal Protocol, which would be the single largest measure to fight climate change since the Paris Agreement was reached last December. Under the current draft of the amendment, developed nations like the United States would eliminate HFCs by the 2030s, while developing nations would have until the 2040s. Developed nations would also help pay for the transition. The deal could be finalized in Rwanda in October.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who’s been playing a key role in the negotiations, says, “an HFC phase-down amendment is a critical piece of the climate puzzle.”

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There’s a new global climate deal that you probably haven’t heard of yet

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Clinton Campaign Isn’t Worried About Trump’s Poll Numbers—Yet

Mother Jones

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Donald Trump has taken a lead in several national polls following the Republican convention, but Hillary Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook isn’t sweating it yet—at least not publicly.

Polls from the Los Angeles Times, CNN, and CBS News all have Trump slightly ahead nationally following the RNC. But at a press briefing on the opening morning of the Democratic National Convention, Mook dismissed concerns that his candidate was lagging, pointing out that conventions have always boosted a candidate’s polling numbers in the past. “There’s a clear trend historically in polling that after your convention, you always get a bump,” Mook said. “I would kind of suspend any kind of polling analysis until after our convention.”

Polling guru Nate Silver weighed in over the weekend and said that while Trump’s poll numbers certainly have improved post-convention, “the initial data suggests that a small-to-medium bounce is more likely than a large one.” He added on Twitter that Trump got a typical bounce of 4 percent. Still, Silver’s model on FiveThirtyEight now predicts that Trump would stand a 57.5 percent chance of winning if the election were held today. But like Mook, he notes that Trump’s lead is due to a standard convention bounce, and his more advanced model has the same message for Clinton supporters: Don’t panic just yet.

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Clinton Campaign Isn’t Worried About Trump’s Poll Numbers—Yet

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Obama Is the Guy Who Made America Work Again

Mother Jones

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The theme of the convention tonight was supposed to be “Make America Work Again.” But Donald Trump has a famously short attention span, and apparently that’s spilled over into the scheduling of the entire convention. As near as I can tell, not a single person talked about jobs and the economy except maybe soap opera star Kimberlin Brown, who grows avocadoes and spent several minutes railing against Obamacare.

However, I didn’t watch every minute of the convention, so maybe I missed one of the early C-list speakers talking about jobs. On the off chance that this happened, I have two charts for you. First, here’s a re-up of one of my favorites, showing that Republicans did everything they possibly could to keep America from recovering while Obama was president:

As you can see from the various red and orange lines, Republicans were eager to increase spending for Reagan, Bush Jr., and Bush Sr.—at least until he lost the election and Clinton took over. Then they cut back. For Obama, they depressed public spending from the start. That’s the blue line. Today, more than six years after the official end of the recession, public spending is more than 20 points lower than the trendline for Reagan and Bush.

Nonetheless, check out Obama’s record on job growth:

Even with two big tax cuts and a housing bubble, Bush Jr. managed to create only 10.9 million jobs. Obama, even with the headwind of Republican obstruction, has created 13.1 million jobs so far.

You can decide for yourself how much credit presidents deserve for the strength of the economy on their watch. But one thing is sure: Obama started with the worst recession since World War II, and six years later he’s created over 13 million jobs; the unemployment rate is under 5 percent; inflation is low; and the economy is growing faster than nearly any other rich country. Imagine what he could have done if Republicans hadn’t stood in his way the entire time.

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Obama Is the Guy Who Made America Work Again

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Don’t Let Individual Polls Fool You. Donald Trump Is Still Well Behind Hillary Clinton.

Mother Jones

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I get asked frequently whether I’m worried about this election. Of course I am. It’s a blot on our country that a man like Donald Trump has even won a major-party nomination, and it’s possible he could even win the presidency. Who wouldn’t be worried about that?

But am I especially worried because the national polls are within four or five points and sometimes even moving in Trump’s direction? Nope. This is an election with no incumbent running. There have been six of these in the postwar era, and the average margin of victory is about 4 percentage points. That’s just the way they go, and we shouldn’t be surprised that this one is running about the same. The fact that Trump is even closer in some polls is also entirely normal. If he’s truly four points behind, you’d expect a range of about 0-8 percentage points in different polls. And the fact that he’s sometimes closer and sometimes farther behind is also normal. External events will affect these things. Put this all together, and you’d expect individual polls to range anywhere from Trump ahead by two points to behind by ten points.

And that’s pretty much what we’re seeing right now. Trump could win, and that’s hardly cause for cheer. But he’s been steadily behind Hillary Clinton by 4-6 points for the past month, and the fact that individual polls sometimes show the race closer is nothing to get extra jittery about. Ordinary jitters are quite enough.

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Don’t Let Individual Polls Fool You. Donald Trump Is Still Well Behind Hillary Clinton.

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Top climate leader wants to be U.N.’s head honcho

That Figueres

Top climate leader wants to be U.N.’s head honcho

By on Jun 27, 2016Share

Outgoing United Nations climate chief Christiana Figueres will soon announce her candidacy for U.N. secretary-general, reports Greenwire. Figueres successfully led the negotiations that produced the U.N. climate deal in Paris last December.

Her selection might be a long shot; 11 other candidates have already thrown their hats in the ring. But if Figueres gets the job, it could signal a bigger emphasis in the United Nations on climate action, in addition to the traditional focus on peace and security.

Some U.N. officials see a climate focus as critical. “If the next secretary-general does not prioritize climate change, the world will lose a person who can regularly remind government … about their opportunities and their responsibilities for ambitious implementation of the Paris Agreement,” János Pásztor, climate adviser to current Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, told Greenwire. Ban, whose term ends in December, has himself been a vocal advocate for fighting climate change.

In Paris, Figueres argued that “never before has a responsibility so great been in the hands of so few.” Even if she isn’t chosen, it’s that kind of gravitas that could push other contenders for the world’s top diplomatic position to address a changing climate.

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Ohio purges thousands of black voters from voting rolls

Ohio purges thousands of black voters from voting rolls

By on Jun 2, 2016Share

Reuters reports that Ohio officials have purged tens of thousands of voters who haven’t cast a ballot since the 2008 presidential election from the rolls.

While purging inactive voters is fairly common, doing it on this scale — and after only eight years of inactivity — is an exception. Although the statewide total of impacted voters isn’t known, Reuters found that 144,000 voters had been purged in the three biggest counties, and black and Democratic-leaning districts were twice as likely to be affected as white and Republican-leaning districts.

When kicked off the rolls, voters have to register again. Not only is this a hassle, there are reports of voters not finding out until they get to their polling places. Then, it’s already too late.

Because Ohio is a swing-state, this could have a huge impact on pro-climate candidates in the election, as well as potential state-wide measures for clean energy, raising the minimum wage, and legalizing medical marijuana and industrial hemp.

Civil liberties groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union, filed suit against Ohio’s Republican Secretary of State Jon Husted in April, alleging that the rule targets minority and low-income voters and violates a federal law saying states can only purge voters from rolls upon death, request, or if they move out of state.

This isn’t the first time Husted has faced allegations of misconduct, as Think Progress points out: In 2012, Husted defied a court order to restore early voting hours, and in March, the Bernie Sanders campaign filed suit against him after Husted barred 17-year-olds who will turn 18 before the general election from voting in the primary. A judge agreed with the Sanders camp that this was unconstitutional, and blocked Husted’s decision.

Husted has called the recent suit “politically motivated, election-year politics,” that “opens the door for voter fraud in Ohio.”

Except voter fraud, according to experts, isn’t actually a problem. In fact, an investigation of more than 1 billion votes cast between 2000 and 2014 found all of 31 incidences of fraud.

Stories of voter suppression have been rampant this election season. Part of this is because its the first presidential election after the 2013 Supreme Court decision that kneecapped the Voting Rights Act. The decision allows state to enact ID requirements, shorten voting periods, and end same-day registration. There have also been a few mysterious incidences this go-round, like the purging of 120,000 people from voter rolls in New York and Arizona Democrats claiming that Latino and working class districts had insufficient polling places for their primary.

Now, it’s up to the courts to decide if it will be allowed to go on in Ohio.

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Hillary Clinton Has a Shouting Problem

Mother Jones

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A friend of mine sends me an email about Hillary Clinton:

I have two daughters, 28 and 25, who live in NYC and a son, 23, just out of college and soon to move to Washington DC. Last weekend we were with all three in Charlottesville. I brought up the subject of the election and they all three basically said the same thing: Trump is a jackass and they are going to vote for Hillary, but for god’s sake why does she scream and shout at her rallies, etc.

They say that virtually all of their friends are driven crazy by it and they basically prefer her to Trump except for the shouting and screaming shtick. My oldest says it is now considered a sexist term but, frankly, Hillary comes across as too “shrill.”

Listen, I like Hillary a lot but she has got to stop this shouting bullshit. It comes across as insincere and phony and—as Joe Klein puts it—it’s not necessary in the era of microphones. Hillary is at her most impressive when she just talks like a normal human—remember how she came across in the Benghazi hearings? I am confident that plenty of Hillary’s people read your blog, so please beg them to lean heavily on her to stop the shouting and just talk to people like they aren’t a bunch of deaf morons standing a half-mile away. Obviously Trump has picked up on the resonating significance of this shouting thing and if there is one thing we can agree on it’s that he has a intuitive ear for what gets people riled-up.

I could take the coward’s way out and say that I’m just passing along the observations of another person here, but the truth is that I find Hillary hard to listen to as well. The shouting is one part of it, but the other part (in victory speeches and ordinary stump speeches) is that she never has anything even remotely interesting to say. I know that these kinds of speeches are usually pretty canned affairs, but there’s no reason Hillary can’t mix things up a little bit. Stuff happens in the world all the time, and you can use this stuff as a hook to make your speeches more likely to drive ratings and get better TV coverage.

A lot of people will take this criticism as pure sexism. Maybe it is. It’s not as if Bernie Sanders has a carefully modulated tone of voice, and young people seem to like him just fine. Still, fair or not, sexist or not, this is a common observation about Hillary. And it’s hardly impossible to learn how to speak better in public. It just takes a little time and practice. In marketing—and that’s largely what politics is—you don’t complain about lousy customers if they turn out not to like your product or your advertising. The customer is always right, by definition. This is a weak spot for Hillary, and she ought to work on it.

And while we’re on the subject, Team Hillary really, really needs to get over its idiotic obsession with trying to hang a disparaging nickname on Donald Trump. All it does is validate his nicknames and put Hillary in the same gutter he works out of. In the end, that’s not what a majority of the public is likely to want. They want a president, not a game show host.

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Hillary Clinton Has a Shouting Problem

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This Short Film Explains Why Businesses Should Maximize Value Over Profit

Mother Jones

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Aspiring documentary filmmaker Taylor Erickson has a theory: If businesses put the interests of their customers over short-term profits, they’ll be more successful in the long run, and society will be better off for it.

“When I was thinking about the economy, that was the first thing that came to my head,” says Erickson, 20. It’s the message at the center of his latest short film, titled “The Greatest Economics Lesson.” It recently won the grand prize in a video contest run by Econ4, a group of professors and consultants in search of a more equitable approach to economics.

In the film, Erickson recalls a time when his friend, a property investor, stopped trying to maximize profits from his properties and began to treat his tenants as partners, taking extra care to improve their houses. The result? His friend’s tenants were more satisfied with their situation, and they stayed longer and took better care of the homes—and he still made money.

“The thing that gets in the way is greed,” Erickson says in the video. “Businesses get so wrapped up in minimizing expenses and maximizing profits that they can neglect the human side of economics…Prioritize value, and you can absolutely still make money. On top of that, you’ll be making your world better by adding value to it.”

Erickson, who works at HOPE Worldwide, a faith-based community service nonprofit in Cleveland, says the lesson extends beyond the macroeconomy. The decisions parents make in spending their money, for instance, affect the wants and needs of the entire family.

And Erickson isn’t done offering lessons. For the last two months, he has channeled his interest in how society works into an attempt to make sense of how political candidates approach the prevailing issues of the election season. In a way, he says, he’s trying to spread “societal literacy,” to take a concept that’s unfamiliar and make it easy to understand. He’s working on a short film on food insecurity and hunger in Northeast Ohio.

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This Short Film Explains Why Businesses Should Maximize Value Over Profit

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Here’s How Tennessee’s Extreme Anti-Abortion Amendment Could Face Its Downfall

Mother Jones

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In 2014, Tennessee voters amended the state constitution and gave state lawmakers almost unlimited power to restrict abortion. But last week, a federal judge ruled that the method used to count the votes in support of Amendment 1 was “fundamentally unfair” and ordered a recount.

The challenge was brought by eight Tennessee voters, who had voted ‘no’ on the amendment. U.S. District Judge Kevin Sharp ruled that their votes were not given the same weight as votes in favor of the amendment, which passed by 53 percent, because of the way that the Tennessee law to amend the state constitution is structured. Election officials have 20 days to submit a recount timeline for the court’s approval.

The confusion stems from language in the Tennessee constitution that dictates how the votes on an amendment should be counted. It states that the amendment can only be passed if “a majority of all the citizens of the state voting for Governor” also voted in favor of the amendment.

The Tennessean reported that “state election officials have long interpreted the language to mean that for an amendment to succeed, it must garner a majority of the votes cast for governor, regardless of whether the same individuals voted for both governor and an amendment.”

Sharp’s order referred to an anti-abortion strategy during the campaign that encouraged the voters who were in favor of Amendment 1 not to vote in the governor’s race. (The incumbent candidate, Gov. Bill Haslam, was projected to win by a wide margin anyhow—the Democratic candidate was largely thought to be unlikely to succeed.) By casting a ballot only for the amendment, the logic went, the votes cast by those in favor of the amendment would essentially “double,” Sharp’s ruling noted, because the number of votes needed for it to pass would be lower. That meant the amendment needed to garner only more than half the number of votes submitted for the governor’s race.

“In this case, Plaintiffs voted for governor and against Amendment 1,” Sharp wrote. “Their votes, however, were not given the same weight as those who voted for Amendment 1 but did not vote in the governor’s race.”

As Tennessee anti-choice lawmakers sought support for Amendment 1, they said the measure was a step toward revoking Roe v. Wade in the state. And since the amendment’s passage, a number of TRAP laws—targeted regulation of abortion providers—and a 48-hour waiting period have come through the state legislature. Some measures that passed have been put on hold by a federal judge.

According to the Tennessean, the plaintiffs remain optimistic. At a news conference on Monday, the plaintiff’s lawyers said there is a “path by which Amendment 1 would fail on recount.”

Vanderbilt law professor Tracy George, who is a board member of the Middle and East Tennessee Planned Parenthood affiliate and one of the eight plaintiffs in the suit, said the amendment has a “good probability” of failing on the ordered recount. In 2014, nearly 80,000 people—five percent of voters—did not vote in the governor’s race.

George said that if those 80,000 voters also voted “to support Amendment 1, under the recount, their votes no longer would count on the Amendment 1 race.” That means, she added, “If all of the people who didn’t vote in the governor’s race were pro-Amendment 1 voters, then Amendment 1 fails on recount.”

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Here’s How Tennessee’s Extreme Anti-Abortion Amendment Could Face Its Downfall

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