Tag Archives: elections

18-Year-Old Wins State Legislature Seat in West Virginia

Mother Jones

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The Republican Wave lifted many boats last night, including that of 18-year-old Saira Blair. The college freshman was elected to the West Virginia House of Delegates in a landslide—she earned 63 percent of the vote to her 44-year-old Democratic opponent’s 30 percent—and officially became the youngest lawmaker in the country. She’ll represent a district of about 18,000 people in the eastern part of the state, near the Maryland border.

The Wall Street Journal describes Blair as “fiscally conservative,” and she “campaigned on a pledge to work to reduce certain taxes on businesses.” Her website boasts an “A” rating from the NRA and endorsements from West Virginians for Life. As a 17-year-old, Blair primaried the 66-year-old Republican incumbent Larry Kump and advanced to the general election—all while legally being unable to cast a vote for herself. Democratic attorney Layne Diehl, her general election opponent, had only good things to say last night about the teenager who beat her: “Quite frankly a 17- or 18-year-old young woman that has put herself out there and won a political campaign has certainly brought some positive press to the state.”

Blair, an economics and Spanish major at West Virginia University, will defer her spring classes to attend the legislative session in the state capital. There, she’ll join her father and campaign manager, Craig, who is a state senator.

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18-Year-Old Wins State Legislature Seat in West Virginia

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No, Democrats Aren’t a Bunch of Hopeless Wimps

Mother Jones

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Just a quick note about an election meme that’s already driving me crazy: Democrats lost because they’re timid, vacillating milksops who can barely string together a coherent message and are congenitally unwilling to stand up for their own beliefs. No wonder everyone hates them!

Give me a break. Democrats are Democrats, and they act pretty much the same every election cycle. And yet, they won big in 2006, 2008, and 2012. If they’re such gutless milksops, how were those victories possible?

Look: every election cycle features different candidates. Obviously it’s possible that, on average, this year’s crop of Democrats were more milksoppy than usual. But here’s what’s far more likely: 2014 featured a fairly ordinary bunch of candidates, and the party’s leadership was roughly as effective and visionary (or not) as it normally is. Ditto for fundraising and GOTV efforts.

But every election cycle has structural differences. This one featured a bad Senate map for Dems. It was a midterm election. The party leader was a president whose popularity has waned. The economy continues to be listless. Washington is paralyzed by gridlock, which means that Democrats didn’t have many legislative successes to sell. And anyway, a consistent message would have been all but impossible given all the seats they had to defend in conservative states.

Maybe Dems could have done better. Maybe their message this year really was weak and stale. But if your theory of defeat is based on some enduring and egregious flaw that’s inherent in the Democratic Party, you should reconsider. It probably doesn’t explain as much as you think. Structural explanations that take account of varying conditions are almost always better.

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No, Democrats Aren’t a Bunch of Hopeless Wimps

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Sam Brownback Holds On

Mother Jones

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Sam Brownback lives to see another day. The embattled Kansas governor won his reelection bid, defeating Democrat Paul Davis. Polls headed into Tuesday had given Brownback poor odds for retaining his job, but being on the ballot during a horrendous year for Democrats nationwide proved to be enough for Brownback to hold on.

Four years ago Brownback coasted into the governors mansion by 30-points. But during his first-term in office he drove moderate Republicans out of his party in order to implement one of the steepest state-level tax cuts in history. Since then, tax revenues have dropped precipitously and the state’s credit rating has been downgraded. The next session of the state legislature will likely have to enact sweeping budget cuts or revoke Brownback’s tax cuts, an unlikely scenario now that he’s maintained his job.

Davis ran a quiet campaign, banking on dissatisfaction with the incumbent rather than running a proactive campaign laying out his own vision. A campaign based on being Not Sam Brownback didn’t prove to be enough in the end.

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Sam Brownback Holds On

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Republican Thom Tillis Defeats Kay Hagan in North Carolina

Mother Jones

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Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan lost her seat to Republican Thom Tillis Tuesday evening—despite waging the largest ever get-out-the-vote effort in a North Carolina Senate campaign. The race is part of a wave of GOP victories that will give Republicans control of the US Senate for the first time since 2006.

Democrats were at a disadvantage in North Carolina because of the expansive new voting restrictions that Republicans in the state legislature—led by Tillis—enacted last year. The new rules curtailed early voting and eliminated same-day registration—changes the Justice Department says depress turnout among minorities, who tend to vote Democratic.

The race was the most expensive in the country. Hagan’s campaign spent $22 million, far more than Tillis’ $8 million. Outside groups shelled out even more, spending more money than in any other Senate race in history, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Outside spending in favor of Hagan totaled $43 million, compared to $38 million in favor of Tillis.

By electing Tillis, North Carolinians are sending to Washington a lawmaker who has a history of backing policies that have made life harder for the middle class and poor. Last year, Tillis voted against expanding Medicaid in North Carolina, which would have provided health coverage to 500,000 uninsured North Carolinians. Tillis led a GOP push to cut funding for substance abuse treatment centers by 12 percent. He and his fellow Republicans also cut unemployment benefits for 170,000 North Carolinians and eliminated the state’s Earned Income Tax Credit, while slashing taxes for the wealthy.

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Republican Thom Tillis Defeats Kay Hagan in North Carolina

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Iowa Swings Right, Elects Joni Ernst to Senate

Mother Jones

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Iowa’s next senator will be Joni Ernst, a one-term state senator who has endorsed personhood for fetuses, supported the government shutdown, said she wants to impeach President Obama, discounts climate change, insisted there were WMDs in Iraq, and once said she believes there’s a nefarious UN plan—Agenda 21—to rob Iowans of their farmland.

It’s hard to overstate just how much of a change she is from the senator she is replacing, Democrat Tom Harkin, a progressive hero during his 30 years in the chamber, who spearheaded the Americans with Disabilities Act and was a longtime champion of health care reform.

Ernst defeated her opponent, Rep. Bruce Braley, by playing up the grievances of Iowa’s rural population, which feels under siege from a growing urban population. She also used her military service in Iraq to revive Bush-era terrorism politics.

Ernst is the first woman Iowa has elected to Congress (leaving Mississippi as the only state that’s hasn’t yet put a women either in Congress or the governor’s office). But in getting there, she relied heavily on male voters. Even in polls that put her ahead by wide margins leading up to the election, she was losing female voters by double digits. “What we like to remind folks is that being a women candidate doesn’t make you a pro-women candidate in all circumstances,” Stephanie Schriock, the president of EMILY’s List, told me during a pre-election event in Des Moines late last month.

Iowa Republicans gathered Tuesday night at a Marriott in West Des Moines to celebrate their successes. (Incumbent Gov. Terry Branstad easily won reelection.) The crowd, packed into a too-small ballroom, erupted in cheers anytime Ernst appeared on the TV screens. Michael Jackson’s “Wanna Be Startin’ Somethin'” piped through the speakers as they waited for Ernst to take the stage.

The last time I’d set foot in this particular hotel was in early 2012, when I watched Rep. Michele Bachmann end her presidential campaign the day after the Iowa caucuses. Bachmann’s drubbing in that contest appeared to represent a repudiation by state Republicans of the Party’s Fox News fringe. Two years later, voters have elected a candidate who represents that very fringe, for while Ernst may be the chosen candidate of the state’s supposed moderates, she readily attaches herself to just about any idea that bubbles up as a Fox News meme. As Tom Harkin put it to me earlier Tuesday afternoon, she’s not quite Ted Cruz, but she’s only an inch or so off.

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Iowa Swings Right, Elects Joni Ernst to Senate

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5 Reasons Your Poll Worker Might Be Totally Clueless

Mother Jones

During his acceptance speech after winning reelection, President Barack Obama thanked voters who endured hours-long long lines to cast their ballots. “By the way,” he added, “we have to fix that.” Trying to make good on that promise, Obama created a presidential commission that spent months digging into the dysfunctional American voting system. One of its many conclusions was, to put it bluntly, that the nation’s poll workers suck. As the report noted, “One of the signal weaknesses of the system of election administration in the United States is the absence of a dependable, well-trained trained corps of poll workers.”

Poll workers, most of whom are volunteers (who typically receive a small stipend), have immense power that far surpasses their standing in the local election bureaucracy. They often make decisions about whether an individual can vote and whether that vote actually gets counted—recall the infamous Florida “hanging chads” during the 2000 presidential election recount. Often they make these decisions poorly, and the people who bear the brunt of those bad decisions are disproportionately African-American and Latino, who often face chronically understaffed polling stations that lack trained workers and those who are bilingual.

If things are running less than smoothly at your polling place today, here are five reasons why the poll workers at your precinct might be clueless:

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5 Reasons Your Poll Worker Might Be Totally Clueless

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10 Reasons Democracy May Prevail Despite GOP Voting Restrictions

Mother Jones

This story was originally published on BillMoyers.com.

There’s a battle underway to protect Americans’ right to vote, and recent news from the frontlines has been grim. Republicans, assisted by the Supreme Court’s conservative majority, have passed new restrictions at a breakneck pace. Texas’ draconian voter ID law was just upheld, possibly disenfranchising as many as 600,000 voters. So, too, were measures to make voting more difficult in North Carolina, including ending same-day registration. And GOP secretaries of state in Georgia and Kansas have so far refused to accept thousands of voter registrations—potentially disenfranchising a lot of eligible voters on technicalities.

But that’s not the whole story. Republicans may have successfully made it tougher to vote in some states, but they’ve failed in others. They couldn’t impose a tougher voter ID law in Arkansas, where one of this year’s truly pivotal Senate races is being fought. And this week in Wisconsin, officials abandoned their efforts (at least for 2014) to impose a tougher ID law that would have targeted university students and minorities.

Their tactics also are generating bad press, which ultimately may push some otherwise unmotivated voters to get out and vote.

Meanwhile, there are a number of pro-voter campaigns hard at work this fall. In some states, activists will keep a sharp eye on attempts to suppress the vote. In others, officials are trying to make the process of voting easier. And across the country, platoons of vigilant lawyers will be on hand to make sure that eligible voters aren’t intimidated by so-called “poll watchers” or forced to jump through hoops that aren’t required under the law.

With all the depressing news about voting access, it’s easy to forget that in states with half the US population, registering to vote has never been easier. Similarly, getting information to voters has never been simpler or more efficient—and election officials are taking advantage of new tools to engage and inform voters. All is not lost.

Here are 10 reasons not to be too pessimistic about voting in 2014.

1. Grassroots Efforts to Get Out the Vote

In several Southern states, young organizers spent the summer organizing “Freedom Side,” an Internet-fueled modern iteration of 1964’s Freedom Summer. Better Schools, Better Jobs set a goal of registering 20,000 new voters in Mississippi. The liberal blog Daily Kos is raising significant funds to get out the Native American vote in South Dakota. In Chicago, low-wage workers who got a taste of politics working with the Fight for 15 campaign are now organizing to get voters registered. Vote Mob is connecting millennial activists online in a handful of battleground states. Nuns on the Bus have been on a nationwide tour to boost turnout. And these are just a few examples of dozens of smaller campaigns by various groups incensed by the GOP’s effort to roll back the clock on voting rights.

2. Senate Dems Have Spent Big Bucks Targeting “Dropoff Voters”

Complimenting those grassroots efforts is a major push by Senate Democrats, dubbed the “Bannock Street Project,” to save their majority by making the 2014 electorate look more like that of a presidential year than a typical midterm—younger and more diverse. We can’t know how effective their efforts will be, but they’ve invested $60 million, and put 4,000 paid staffers to work in 10 key states for what The New York Times described as the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s “largest and most data-driven ground game yet.”

3. The US Department of Justice Will Be Watching

Attorney General Eric Holder has made voting rights one of the top priorities of his Civil Rights Division, and they have people ready to go into federal court to protect voters—they’ll seek orders to extend polling place hours or ensure that other steps are taken so that eligible voters can cast their ballots, and those ballots will be counted. These election cops aren’t heavily promoted or widely discussed, but they’ve been on the beat for years.

4. The Lawyers Committee For Civil Rights Under Law Also Will Be On the Lookout

The Lawyers Committee not only runs a toll-free nationwide nonpartisan Election Day hotline (1-866-OUR-VOTE) that voters can call if problems arise, they’re also poised to go into federal and state courts if necessary. The Committee enlists thousands of volunteer attorneys across the US. They’re involved in pre-Election Day legal battles like the one they’re fighting in Georgia, where, based on dubious claims that some of the forms may have been forged, the conservative secretary of state is holding more than 40,000 new voter registrations in limbo.

5. Lots of New Apps and Online Tools

The most empowering development in recent years may also be the most overlooked. A decade ago, a cellphone couldn’t tell you how to register in your state, confirm your registration status, locate your polling place, give you directions, review any new rules or regulations that you might have to overcome, tell you what kind of machine you’ll be voting on, and possibly translate all that info into Spanish or other languages. But today these tools are commonplace and just a quick Google search away. Both major political parties have integrated these technologies into their turnout operations, as have civil rights groups like the Lawyers Committee. In other words, there’s more how-to information and help available than ever—even in states where partisans are trying to police the process.

6. States Are Identifying Eligible Voters and Urging Them to Register

In the District of Columbia and 11 states—including battleground states like Colorado and Nevada—some 11.6 million eligible but unregistered voters have been identified since the summer of 2012 by ERIC, the Electronic Registration Information Center, a nonprofit that has worked with state election officials. These voters have been contacted and urged to register, and the data ERIC has gathered has been used to update official voter rolls. It appears that this effort has been a real under-the-radar success.

7. There’s More Outreach in States With New Voter ID Laws

Not all states with tough new voter ID laws are like Texas, which, as Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg noted in a recent dissent, has done almost nothing to inform voters about changes in the state’s election law. Some red and purple states, like South Carolina, Mississippi and Virginia, have launched surprisingly aggressive public information campaigns to urge would-be voters to get the documents necessary to cast their ballots. In some states, financial help is also available for people who might struggle to come up with the fees for state IDs.

8. Online Voter Registration Is Now Available in 20 States

People with driver’s licenses in 20 states, representing more than half the country’s population, can register to vote online. This is another example of states making the process easier, not harder, and it includes some, like Georgia, where there are ongoing legal fights over the franchise.

9. Voting Vigilantes Offer More Bark Than Bite

In recent elections, a handful of tea party-affiliated groups have threatened to police the vote—and intimidate voters—by challenging their eligibility at polling places. The leading example of this, TrueTheVote, has been barred from some polling places for being disruptive. But at the end of the day, their polling place posses have rarely materialized. And in 2014, the group is asking volunteers simply to report suspicions.

10. These Tactics Aren’t New

In 2000, during the presidential election in Florida, and again in 2004 in Ohio, people were alarmed to discover that the voting process may have been gamed by partisans. But since then, many Americans have heard all about how the GOP keeps trying to make it harder for traditionally Democratic constituencies to vote. Knowledge is power here, because the bottom line is that the hurdles red state legislatures have put in place aren’t impossible to surmount. And there is some evidence that attempts to suppress the vote in 2012 may have led to a backlash, ultimately increasing turnout among at least some groups.

None of this is reason to pop the champagne. One of our two major parties is facing strong demographic headwinds, and has responded with a concerted, multifaceted campaign to make it as hard as possible within the law to exercise a fundamental right of democracy. That party controls two dozen state legislatures, and in many cases has been successful erecting new barriers in front of potential voters.

But it’s important to keep in mind that there are also individuals and institutions pushing back, trying to enlarge the electorate. Hopelessness leads to complacency, and complacency is the ultimate tool of voter suppression. So get out and vote!

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10 Reasons Democracy May Prevail Despite GOP Voting Restrictions

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Even Without Voter ID Laws, Minority Voters Face More Hurdles to Casting Ballots

Mother Jones

Over the past decade, Republican legislators have pushed a number of measures critics say are blatant attempts to suppress minority voting, including voter ID requirements, shortened early voting periods, and limits on same-day voter registration. But minority voters are often disenfranchised in another, more subtle way: Polling places without enough voting machines or poll workers.

Charts: How minority voters were blocked at the ballot box in 2012.

These polling places tend to have long lines to vote. Long lines force people to eventually give up and go home, depressing voter turnout. And that happens regularly all across the country in precincts with lots of minority voters, even without voter ID or other voting restrictions in place.

Nationally, African Americans waited about twice as long to vote in the 2012 election as white people, (23 minutes on average versus 12 minutes); Hispanics waited 19 minutes. White people who live in neighborhoods whose residents are less than 5 percent minority, had the shortest of all wait times, just 7 minutes. These averages obscure some of the unusually long lines in some areas. In South Carolina’s Richland County, which is 48 percent black and is home to 14 percent of the state’s African American registered voters, some people waited more than five hours to cast their ballots.

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Even Without Voter ID Laws, Minority Voters Face More Hurdles to Casting Ballots

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Republicans Attack Democrats For Supporting Republican Demands

Mother Jones

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Getting deep into the weeds of local congressional races isn’t my thing, but it’s certainly been intriguing this year watching Republicans attack Democrats for being willing to accept Republican positions on various issues. Until now, the most egregious example of this came from Karl Rove’s Super PAC, which has attacked several Democratic senators for supporting a plan to raise the retirement age of Social Security—an idea that Republicans have been promoting for years. Chutzpah!

But now we have a new contender in the sweepstakes for sheer partisan hypocrisy. Dylan Matthews tells us today that in Arizona a Republican contender is attacking Democrat Ron Barber for…. supporting a budget compromise engineered by tea party darling Paul Ryan.

The flyer, which apparently comes from the Arizona Republican Party, is on the right. Note the Arizona GOP’s thundering denunciation of Ryan’s “bone-chilling” budget, which “cut vital assistance programs.” That’s all true, of course, and many Democrats held their noses and voted for the deal. But there’s no question that all the bone-chilling stuff came straight from the fever swamps of the Republican Party. They’re the ones who refused to extend unemployment benefits and demanded cuts in food assistance.

We’ve heard a lot this election cycle about Democrats running away from President Obama. Are we now going to see stories about Republicans running away from Paul Ryan and his fellow budget ideologues? Probably not. But we should.

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Republicans Attack Democrats For Supporting Republican Demands

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Democrats Like It When Forecasts Show Democrats Winning

Mother Jones

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Justin Wolfers shows us an intriguing example of confirmation bias today. It turns out that Leo, the New York Times election forecasting model, bases its forecasts on running hundreds of simulations and then taking an average. But readers who want to play around can go ahead and toss the dice themselves, generating their own random simulations. So what do readers do?

This is where confirmation bias comes in. If you’re convinced that the Republicans are going to win but your first two spins suggest a Democratic victory, you may feel deflated; perhaps you’ll spin again, in the hopes that you’ll finally get to see what a Republican victory looks like….85 percent of the time that your first two spins show a Democratic victory, you’ll keep spinning, perhaps hoping to see a Republican victory.

The same logic says that those who see the Democrats as likely to win are more likely to spin again after seeing the Republicans win in their first two spins, and once again, 85 percent of you do so.

Presumably readers are smart enough to know that these really are just random rolls of the dice that don’t mean anything. Only the average of hundreds of simulations are meaningful. And yet, many of us do it anyway. Why?

Properly speaking, I’m not sure this is actually confirmation bias. I suspect that partisans just want to avoid a feeling of hopelessness. Sure, the official results will tell them that, say, Democrats have a 34 percent chance of holding the Senate, and that should be enough. But it’s not. Democratic partisans want to see the concrete possibility of a Democratic win. Rather than confirmation bias, this shows a human preference for examples vs. statistical forecasts.

Now, I’d expect that Democrats would do this more than Republicans. After all, if Leo says Republicans have a 66 percent chance of winning, that should make Republicans pretty happy. Why bother running even a single simulation that might spoil the good news? Unfortunately, Leo’s data doesn’t tell us if this happens, because it doesn’t know who’s a Democrat and who’s a Republican. But I’ll bet I’m right.

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Democrats Like It When Forecasts Show Democrats Winning

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