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The State Department could gut Obama’s last remaining executive action on climate change.

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An independent review of the federal government’s actions on climate change might have inadvertently endangered President Obama’s last remaining executive action on global warming.

In 2017, five Democratic senators — including Sheldon Whitehouse, Dianne Feinstein, and Elizabeth Warren — asked the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) to conduct a review of how federal agencies were addressing climate change as a “potential driver of global migration.” The nonpartisan “congressional watchdog,” studied executive and federal activities between 2014 and 2018.

The GAO report, which was released on Thursday, adds to the bleak picture of federal climate action under the current administration. It shows that while the Department of State, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Department of Defense began to look into the nexus of climate change and migration while Obama was in office, much of that work has been undone by President Trump and his appointees.

The fact that climate connections have languished in several federal agencies over the past two years is not that surprising– President Trump has systematically dismantled musth of Obama’s climate legacy. But the report itself is having some unexpected consequences in certain parts of the federal government.

As a result of its inquiry into federal actions on climate change and migration, the GAO issued a recommendation to the U.S. State Department: it should provide its missions with guidance on how to assess risks posed by climate change. That’s something the department started to do after Obama issued an executive order on Climate-Resilient International Development in 2014. In response, according to the GAO, the State Department agreed to that recommendation this year — but added that the agency will consider asking President Trump to scrap Obama’s order.

“This is unprecedented within my experience that the agency would on the one hand essentially acknowledge and agree to the recommendation, but on the other hand begin working to consider whether to rescind the underlying executive action,” David Gootnick, director of international affairs and trade at the GAO, told Grist.

When the State Department develops its strategy for U.S. priorities in each country without including guidance on how to conduct climate change risk assessments, it misses out on opportunities to identify and address the potential impact global warming may have on migration, the GAO wrote. The department did not immediately provide comment, citing limited capacity due to the ongoing partial government shutdown.

The GAO report highlighted research on the global fallout of a warming climate, which it said raises “both humanitarian and national security concerns for the U.S. government.” Scientists have increasingly been able to attribute the growing severity of disasters like hurricanes and floods to climate change. Extreme weather events can often displace entire communities, and push people to move in order to rebuild their lives. Slow changes over time, like prolonged droughts and sea-level rise driven by higher average global temperatures, can also destroy livelihoods and factor into people’s decisions to migrate.

U.S. Government Accountability Office

Although the study notes that it’s difficult to quantify how much of a role climate change plays directly or indirectly on global migration trends, it did point to instances when federal agencies had made that connection in the past. In 2014, the Department of State wrote in its adaptation plan that climate change was a potential driver for migration and could affect the department’s peace-keeping efforts. That year, the Department of Defense stated in its adaptation roadmap that climate change was a “threat multiplier” that could threaten national security through migration. Also in 2014, USAID, which spearheads the nation’s international development efforts, identified climate-related events like flooding as a driver of migration and a risk to its aid programming.

The Trump administration has already revoked two other Obama-era executive actions on climate change: a 2013 executive order “preparing the United States for the impacts of climate change” and a 2016 presidential memorandum on climate change and national security.

Those actions have crippled the federal agencies’ ability to communicate with each other on climate change. It disbanded the Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience and the Council on Climate Preparedness and Resilience — both of which brought together expertise from the Departments of State, Defense, and USAID.

“Those kinds of working groups are important for the U.S. government to bring its collective resources to bear and be able to be a partner with other bilateral and multilateral fora,” said Gootnick.

The GAO report also noted how the Trump administration has slashed funding for climate initiatives. And on top of vowing to pull out of the Paris Agreement on climate change, the Trump administration also said that it would pull out of negotiations on the U.N. Global Compact for Migration, which is shaping up to be one of the first intergovernmental agreements to tackle climate-driven migration.

In an email to Grist, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, who commissioned the GAO report, wrote, “President Trump’s immigration obsession has a serious blind spot: the role of climate change in driving people to flee their homes.”

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The State Department could gut Obama’s last remaining executive action on climate change.

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Climate change is gonna be freakin’ expensive, government office warns.

The demonstrations call on households, cities, and institutions to withdraw money from banks financing projects that activists say violate human rights — such as the Dakota Access Pipeline and efforts to extract oil from tar sands in Alberta, Canada.

The divestment campaign Mazaska Talks, which is using the hashtag #DivestTheGlobe, began with protests across the United States on Monday and continues with actions in Africa, Asia, and Europe on Tuesday and Wednesday. Seven people were arrested in Seattle yesterday, where activists briefly shut down a Bank of America, Chase, and Wells Fargo.

The demonstrations coincide with a meeting in São Paulo, Brazil, involving a group of financial institutions that have established a framework for assessing the environmental and social risks of development projects. Organizers allege the banks have failed to uphold indigenous peoples’ right to “free, prior, and informed consent” to projects developed on their land.

“We want the global financial community to realize that investing in projects that harm us is really investing in death, genocide, racism, and does have a direct effect on not only us on the front lines but every person on this planet,” Joye Braun, an Indigenous Environmental Network community organizer, said in a statement.

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Climate change is gonna be freakin’ expensive, government office warns.

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EINSTEIN is Probably the Wrong Name for the Government’s Very Flawed Cybersecurity System

Mother Jones

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The government relies on a system called EINSTEIN, or the National Cybersecurity Protection System, to detect and stop the rising numbers of cyberattacks on its computers. But a new report from the Government Accountability Office says EINSTEIN is falling far short of expectations.

The latest version of the $6-billion-dollar system, which rolled out in 2013, was designed to both detect suspicious cyber activity and prevent anything harmful from entering or leaving government computer networks. But the GAO says the system gives its users only “a limited ability to detect potentially malicious activity entering and exiting computer networks at federal agencies.” And when the GAO tested EINSTEIN, the system could only identify six percent of the common vulnerabilities in programs typically used on federal computers, including Microsoft Office and Internet Explorer.

The system is also falling short on helping agencies share information about cyber threats. The GAO found that only 5 of 23 federal agencies are actually using the “intrusion prevention” parts of the EINSTEIN system, which actively try to block malicious content. The information gained from those agencies helps recognize patterns that the system can use to improve and identify other similar attacks. The smaller the pool of data, the less effective the system can be. The information-sharing process itself also appears to be a mess. “DHS has yet to develop most of the planned functionality for NCPS’s information-sharing capability,” the report said. “Moreover, agencies and DHS did not always agree about whether notifications of potentially malicious activity had been sent or received, and agencies had mixed views about the usefulness of these notifications.”

A classified version of the report was released in November, but a declassified version was released on Thursday by the GAO. It came just days after the government announced the formation of a new agency to handle background checks after two massive hacks struck the Office of Personnel Management. The hacks, believed to be the work of the Chinese government, stole the highly sensitive background investigation forms of more than 20 million federal employees. After the attacks became public knowledge last year, the government’s cybersecurity defenses came under withering scrutiny from congressional overnight committees. This week’s report isn’t likely to help.

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EINSTEIN is Probably the Wrong Name for the Government’s Very Flawed Cybersecurity System

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How a Loophole in US Law Helps Drug Cartels Sneak Guns Into Mexico

Mother Jones

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The same routes that Mexico’s drug cartels use to smuggle drugs into the United States are also used to run American guns into Mexico, according to a new report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO).

The report, commissioned by Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) and published yesterday, reveals that 70 percent—more than 73,000—of the guns recovered from crime scenes in Mexico and traced by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) from 2009 to 2014 originated in the United States. These weapons have fueled the ongoing war among the drug cartels and between the cartels and Mexican security forces, contributing to the more than 100,000 killings in the country since 2007.

The cartels’ weapons of choice are high-caliber rifles, including AR-15 and AK-47-type semiautomatic rifles, which can be easily converted into fully automatic machine guns. The cartel’s gunrunners often buy firearms legally in the United States, either at gun shops, gun shows, or in private sales. The firearms are then illegally shipped across the border.

But increasingly, the cartels are shipping weapons parts into Mexico to be assembled into finished firearms. It’s a discreet process that is especially difficult to detect. Firearm manufacturers or importers in the United States are not required to stamp serial numbers on gun parts. Retailers do not have to report when they buy and sell parts kits with everything needed to complete a gun except a receiver. Receivers, which house the mechanical components of a firearm, like trigger groups and magazine feeds, can be purchased separately. To avoid detection, gunrunners will often use unfinished, or “80-percent” receivers—receivers that are mostly complete but require some further machining to be functional.

As I previously reported when I attended a gun building party in California, unfinished receivers are not classified as firearms. They don’t require serial numbers and generally have no markings, which makes firearms assembled with them untraceable. “They are also easy to conceal,” the GAO report noes, “making it more challenging for customs authorities to detect illicit shipments of such parts.” As Rep. Engel noted in a statement, the ATF has discretion over how it defines a receiver. Yet, as Engel puts it, “far too often, unfinished gun receivers are minimally modified to avoid regulation.”

The ATF has long been hindered by a lack of funds and agents, a problem that President Obama addressed in the executive action he announced last week that includes adding 200 new ATF agents and investigators. Engel said Congress could do more to “stop the illegal flow of guns across the U.S.-Mexico border” but accused his Republican colleagues of being “much more concerned with loosening already lax gun regulations than protecting citizens in both of our countries from gun violence.”

The GAO report also notes that collaboration between American and Mexican authorities is fraught. In 2012, joint US-Mexico efforts to stem firearms trafficking were scaled down when Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto sharply limited law enforcement collaboration. In the past year, US officials reported to the GAO that collaboration is gaining momentum, but concerns over corruption among Mexican officials is still a problem. The report notes that Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials in the United States “are concerned about sharing information with ICE officials based in Mexico, fearing that the information may unintentionally reach corrupt Mexican authorities and compromise their investigations.”

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How a Loophole in US Law Helps Drug Cartels Sneak Guns Into Mexico

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Chart of the Day: Kansas Successfully Reduces Voting Rate of Blacks, Young People

Mother Jones

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Hey, guess what? If you pass a photo ID law, you reduce voter turnout. The nonpartisan GAO studied the effect of photo ID laws and, after applying all the usual demographic controls, came up with this chart for Kansas and Tennessee compared to similar states without photo ID laws:

Voter turnout was reduced by 2-3 percentage points in both states. But of course there’s more to the story. Some groups were more strongly affected than others. Here are the results for Kansas:

Age. In Kansas, the turnout effect among registrants who were 18 years old in 2008 was 7.1 percentage points larger in size than the turnout effect among registrants between the ages of 44 and 53.

….Race or ethnicity. We estimate that turnout was reduced among African-American registrants by 3.7 percentage points more than among Whites in Kansas.

….Length of registration. In Kansas, the reduction in turnout for people registered to vote within 1 year prior to Election Day 2008 was 5.2 percentage points larger in size than for people registered to vote for 20 years or longer prior to Election Day 2008.

Victory! Turnout plummeted among blacks, young people, and college students. What more could an enterprising Republican legislature want?

Oh, and, um, maybe voter fraud was reduced. The Kansas Secretary of State responded to a draft of the GAO report by explaining that “if lower overall turnout occurs after implementation of a photo ID law, some of the decrease may be attributable to the prevention of fraudulent votes.” You betcha.

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Chart of the Day: Kansas Successfully Reduces Voting Rate of Blacks, Young People

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One of the awful things about a nuclear meltdown could be the traffic

One of the awful things about a nuclear meltdown could be the traffic

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Get me out of here!

It’s hard to imagine a worse traffic jam than the traffic jam that slows your escape from a nuclear meltdown.

The U.S. Government Accountability Office is warning other federal agencies that they need to be thinking about that scenario as they plan emergency responses to nuclear accidents.

Current planning focuses on evacuating or sheltering people living and working within a 10-mile radius of a nuclear power plant. Such planning assumes that everybody living, say, 11 miles from an exploding nuclear reactor would sit on their asses watching the disaster unfold on CNN. And the GAO thinks that’s unlikely. Those people might instead rush into their cars and onto the streets in an understandably panicked bid to escape the area, worsening traffic congestion and making escape more difficult for those closer to the accident.

From a GAO report published last week:

Those in the 10-mile zone have been shown to be generally well informed about these emergency preparedness procedures and are likely to follow directions from local and state authorities in the event of a radiological emergency. In contrast, the agencies do not require similar information to be provided to the public outside of the 10-mile zone and have not studied public awareness in this area. Therefore, it is unknown to what extent the public in these areas is aware of these emergency preparedness procedures, and how they would respond in the event of a radiological emergency. Without better information on the public’s awareness and potential response in areas outside the 10-mile zone, [the Nuclear Regulatory Commission] may not be providing the best planning guidance to licensees and state and local authorities.

Four senators requested that the GAO conduct the study after the Associated Press published a series in 2011 on weaknesses in emergency planning around nuclear plants. From a new AP article:

Environmental and anti-nuclear groups have pressed federal regulators to expand planning to 25 miles for evacuation and 100 miles for contaminated food. They also want community exercises that postulate a simultaneous nuclear accident and natural disaster.

Nuclear sites were originally picked mainly in rural areas to lessen the impact of accidents. However, in its 2011 series, the AP reported population growth of up to 350 percent within 10 miles of nuclear sites between 1980 and 2010. About 120 million Americans — almost 40 percent — live within 50 miles of a nuclear power plant, according to the AP’s analysis of Census data. The series also reported shortcomings in readiness exercises for simulated accidents, including the failure to deploy emergency personnel around the community, reroute traffic, or practice any real evacuations.

The series further documented how federal regulators have relaxed safety standards inside aging plants to keep them within the rules and avoid the need for shutdowns.

Asked about the GAO study, Paul Blanch, a retired engineer who has worked on nuclear safety for the industry, questioned whether it’s even possible to plan for an effective, managed evacuation of residents in a very populated area. “I absolutely believe they would panic, and they’d clog the roads,” he said.

NRC spokesperson Neil Sheehan apparently took some time out of his busy day to mull the report before emailing a thoughtful, thorough response to the AP: “We disagree with the view that evacuations cannot be safely carried out.”

OK then.

John Upton is a science aficionado and green news junkie who

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One of the awful things about a nuclear meltdown could be the traffic

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Americans are quite literally giving their gold and silver away

Americans are quite literally giving their gold and silver away

A quick civics quiz to start your day. The answers are in italics at the end of each question. (If you read the headline, you’re cheating.)

  1. When was the General Mining Act, which is still in place, signed into law? 1872.
  2. Under the General Mining Act, how much do companies pay to stake a claim to extract precious metals on public land? How much in annual maintenance costs thereafter? $189; $140.
  3. How much do they pay to the government in royalties for each ounce of gold extracted? Silver? Copper? Zero dollars; nada; zilch.
  4. How much did the government earn in royalties from precious metal extraction last year? Not one fucking penny.

In other words, if your company staked a claim in 1873, and had been mining gold from it continuously, the total cost to your company would have been $19,509. At today’s spot price of $1,715 an ounce, you’d have needed to extract only 12 ounces over the past 139 years to recoup the entire amount you’d paid the U.S. government.

jvleis

This mining operation paid the same amount to the government that a mining company would today, because the system works.

Today, the General Accounting Office will release a report documenting the extent to which the government has been ripped off for more than a century. From The Washington Post:

The GAO report — which estimates that extraction of oil, gas, natural gas liquids and coal on federal and Indian lands produced $11.4 billion in federal revenue last year — said it could not make a similar assessment for hard-rock minerals. Federal agencies generally don’t collect data on the value of hard-rock minerals taken from public land because the only reason to do so would be to calculate royalties, the report states.

Back in 1993, when metal prices were much lower, however, the Interior Department estimated that sales of hard-rock minerals from federal lands totaled $6.41 billion. “This should be front and center of the natural resource agenda for this next administration,” [Sen. Tom Udall (D-N.M.)] said in a phone interview. “These hard-rock minerals belong to the American people, and today we’re quite literally giving our gold and silver away.”

If the 1993 extraction were valued at $6.41 billion, and that’s representative of every year between, say, 1980 and 2012 (which it very much may not be), and the government exacted a 1 percent royalty fee — that’s $2 billion in revenue. Two. Billion. Dollars.

Counterpoint from extractors:

Industry officials say they contribute to the economy even without paying royalties.

Responding to an inquiry last year from [Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.)] about the value of uranium that Denison Mines Corp. had extracted from public land, company chief executive Ron F. Hochstein did not divulge any specific figures. But he said the metal ore industry overall accounted for nearly 290,000 jobs and contributed $37.2 billion to the nation’s gross domestic product, according to an industry-commissioned PricewaterhouseCoopers study.

The Federal Reserve puts the number of people employed in non-oil-and-gas mining at about 215,000. But apparently we’re not in the business of holding mining companies accountable for numbers, so who am I to complain?

There have been a lot of rackets in the history of American politics. But this — this massive gift to raw material extractors — is one of the biggest.

Source

Mining firm profits from public lands remain a mystery, new GAO study shows, The Washington Post

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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As another coal mine closes, the government says to expect more closures in the future

As another coal mine closes, the government says to expect more closures in the future

Peabody Energy announced yesterday that it was closing its Willow Lake coal mine, a facility that employed around 400 people in southern Illinois. Earlier this month, one of those employees was killed by a piece of mining equipment, a factor cited in the closure. But the reason coal companies like Peabody are shutting down mines and declaring bankruptcy is simpler: economics.

I wrote a piece earlier this week at Slate.com that is sort of a beginner’s guide to why coal is doomed over the long term. It is called “Coal Is Doomed,” just to get the point across. The argument, in short: Coal is both unhealthy (over the short and long term) and getting less cheap compared to natural gas and renewables. To be even passably healthy, use of coal needs to get more expensive. Even the industry acknowledges the need to be cleaner. And that’s the game. (The full piece is a lot more words, so you should go read that, at some point.)

denverjeffrey

Farewell, my friends.

The Peabody closure is still on the leading edge of coal’s decline and may in fact be an outlier. But a new report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office [PDF] largely echoes the argument above: Coal is slipping, badly.

Two broad trends are affecting power companies’ decisions related to coal-fueled generating units — recent environmental regulations and changing market conditions, such as the recent decrease in the price of natural gas. Regarding retirements, forecasts GAO reviewed based on current policies project that power companies may retire 15 to 24 percent of coal-fueled generating capacity by 2035 — an amount consistent with GAO’s analysis. GAO’s statistical analysis, examining data on power companies that have announced plans to retire coal-fueled units, found that these power companies are more likely to retire units that are older, smaller, and more polluting. … Regarding new coal-fueled units, these are likely to be less polluting as they must incorporate advanced technologies to reduce emissions of regulated pollutants. Coal-fueled capacity may decline in the future as less capacity is expected to be built than is expected to retire.

Deeming coal plants to be “less polluting” requires containment of two sorts of pollutants. The first are those that can cause acute and long-term health problems: particulates, mercury, and so on. The second are those that contribute to global warming — specifically, carbon dioxide. For years, proponents of “clean coal” — the hollow industry mantra aimed at reframing the toxic rocks — have touted carbon capture and storage as a solution to the second type of pollution. The idea is that coal-burning plants could, perhaps obviously, capture and then store the carbon dioxide they emit. But as noted in The New York Times yesterday, that’s unlikely to happen, mostly due to economics.

Carbon capture and storage could be a boon for the gas and power industry because — if plants could be built economically — it offers a way to use fossil fuels like coal and gas to generate electricity for decades while also meeting greenhouse gas targets. But today, building a gas or coal-fired power station equipped with carbon capture apparatus roughly doubles the cost. That is a big problem now, especially in Europe, which is paring back its commitment to green energy. …

Carbon capture is touted by organizations like the International Energy Agency as a major component of the global effort to reduce greenhouse gases. The I.E.A. calls for 100 carbon capture projects by 2020 and 3,400 by 2050.

But those goals seem more appropriate to a few years ago, when there was money to burn. The Global CCS Institute, an industry group in Canberra, reports that there are only eight large carbon capture projects operating in the world today. In fact, they are so rare that some executives in the carbon capture industry have never seen one. …

Further hurting the prospects for carbon capture are fears that the gas will somehow bubble up to the surface. These concerns, along with a lack of onshore oil and gas production, mean that it is hard to dispose of gas on land in Western Europe. Depleted North Sea oil fields are a more acceptable repository, but pumping CO2 under the sea is also more expensive.

The numbers don’t add up. Or, rather, they do add up — just to smaller and smaller amounts. The United States is still the second-largest user of coal in the world, behind China. But as the math and the GAO suggest, coal use will keep going down. Which will mean companies like Peabody are going to have to start closing mines that aren’t outliers — until, eventually, Peabody itself closes its doors.

Philip Bump writes about the news for Gristmill. He also uses Twitter a whole lot.

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As another coal mine closes, the government says to expect more closures in the future

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