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Thinking, Fast and Slow – Daniel Kahneman

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Thinking, Fast and Slow

Daniel Kahneman

Genre: Psychology

Price: $9.99

Publish Date: October 25, 2011

Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Seller: Macmillan / Holtzbrinck Publishers, LLC


Major New York Times bestsellerWinner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the best books of 2011A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 TitleOne of The Economist ’s 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal 's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 In the international bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow , Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking , Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

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Coal companies have gotten good at wrangling their way out of federal fines

Coal companies have gotten good at wrangling their way out of federal fines

Reuters / Danny MoloshokCoal boss Robert Murray, probably contemplating how to minimize his company’s latest safety fine.

Back in high school, I had a great strategy for dealing with parking tickets I couldn’t afford to pay: I went down to city hall and challenged them — sometimes with a legitimate excuse, sometimes not (“The two-hour sign was obscured by a flowering cherry tree!”). I had figured out that bureaucrats cared less about the reliability of my sob story than they did about getting on with their day, so often they’d just roll their eyes, reduce the fine, and shoo me out the door.

Turns out the same tactic works for coal companies facing fines for safety infractions. A Cleveland Plain Dealer investigation found that when federal regulators fine mine operators for violating safety standards, those companies “are fighting significant fines as a matter of course and getting them reduced, if not dropped,” which means “clogging up the appeals process and wearing down a system that lacks resources to match the challenge.” You know, just like a privileged teenager exploiting an overburdened traffic court — except with hundreds of thousands of dollars, not to mention miners’ lives, at stake.

The Plain Dealer reports:

Reviewing [Mine Safety and Health Administration] data dating to 2007, the Plain Dealer examined the agency’s practice of levying large fines and the Ohio mines’ practice of challenging the fines. The newspaper found repeated success for mine owners. Just counting four years in which nearly every case is now resolved — 2007 through 2010 — the government wanted $1.59 million from Murray Energy for citations at its two Ohio underground mines. Murray wound up paying $1.05 million, saving more than $531,000, according to an analysis of the federal data. It did so by seeking negotiations and, if that failed, filing appeals. …

Murray is contesting nearly $1.1 million more for citations issued in 2011, 2012, and early 2013, records show.

That’s the same Murray Energy, by the way, that forced employees to take an unpaid day off to attend a Romney rally last year and pressured them to donate to pro-coal politicians; the same Murray Energy whose Crandall Canyon mine in Utah collapsed in 2007, killing nine people — six miners and three rescue workers. The Murray subsidiaries operating that mine negotiated a proposed $1.6 million fine for the accident down to $1.15 million.

The Plain Dealer writes that this pattern of challenging fines, often getting them reduced by 50 percent or more, “raises questions about how sensible and effective the mine-safety system is.” The MSHA responds that “inspections and citations, regardless of how the fines are resolved, create safer mines.” But the fact that Murray has racked up millions in fines since the Crandall Canyon collapse indicates that the company didn’t exactly get its shit together after that fatal accident.

Despite criticism from Congress for clogging the appeals system, Murray Energy CEO Robert Murray “staunchly defends his practices and views, including what he says are increasingly harsh and unnecessary environmental regulation.” The Mine Improvement and New Emergency Response Act of 2006 — the first major reform to mine safety regulations in 28 years — did substantially toughen penalties for safety violations. But it appears that instead of prompting mining companies to take stricter precautions, the prospect of harsher penalties only encouraged them to automatically challenge all but the most minor citations.

For mine owners, as the Plain Dealer puts it, “violations, like points on a driver’s record, are costly and have severe consequences,” providing incentive to challenge them. Just as your license can be taken away after enough traffic infractions, a mine can be shut down after enough serious safety violations.

The MSHA maintains that its safety system is working, reporting that 2012 saw the lowest ever rate of reported on-the-job injuries for coal miners, and the second-lowest number of deaths: 19.

Still sounds like 19 too many to me.

Claire Thompson is an editorial assistant at Grist.

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Coal companies have gotten good at wrangling their way out of federal fines

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Should America export its fracked gas? Why greens say no.

Should America export its fracked gas? Why greens say no.

Dominion

Cove Point, built as a natural gas import terminal, destined to be a natural gas export terminal.

Frackers already contaminate America’s groundwatermake people sickproduce radioactive waste, and contribute to earthquakes. Processing and moving the natural gas that they produce leads to nasty spills and deadly explosions. And cheap natural gas makes it harder for renewable energy to compete.

But, hey, at least almost all of that cheap fuel is being used by Americans in America, right?

That may not continue to be the case. The Obama administration is poised to rule on a slew of applications to export natural gas to other countries through hulking industrial terminals dotted along U.S. coasts. Over the weekend, Obama appeared to reveal his hand on the issue, forecasting that the U.S. would likely become a net gas exporter by 2020, reports The Financial Times.

According to the newspaper, administration officials fear that a restriction on natural gas exports, as is being sought by American environmentalists and manufacturers, would send a bad signal about the country’s support for free trade.

Environmentalists fear that allowing such exports would exacerbate the fracking boom, harm the environment along the routes of new natural gas pipelines, and cause pollution and industrial accidents at natural gas export terminals. (The manufacturers aren’t worried about any of that; they just want to keep the cheap gas to themselves.)

One such export terminal is planned at Cove Point, Md., along the shores of Chesapeake Bay and close to the vast Marcellus Shale natural gas reserves. Dominion, the energy company that owns the facility, received federal permission in 2011 to export gas through the terminal to certain countries. Now it is seeking permits needed to liquefy natural gas there before loading it onto tanker ships. Like other planned natural gas export hubs, Cove Point was built to receive imported natural gas, back before America’s fracking boom took hold, and now it’s being converted into an export hub.

The Sierra Club, Earthjustice, and other environmental groups jointly filed documents [PDF] on Friday calling on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to conduct a thorough environmental review of Dominion’s proposal.

From a press release issued by the groups:

The coalition argues the development of this terminal in Lusby, MD would result in major damage to the Chesapeake Bay, coastal forests, and the local economy, which currently support more than a trillion dollars in economic activity from the seafood and tourism industries. …

Major concerns include a substantial increase in ship traffic of huge — and potentially explosive — LNG [liquefied natural gas] tankers on the Bay and to Cove Point, as well as the risks posed by dumping billions of gallons of wastewater into this large and complex estuary, made up of a network of rivers, wetlands, and forests.

Residents of nearby Myersville, Md., meanwhile, object to Dominion’s plans [PDF] to install a large natural gas compressor inside their town.

The issue of natural gas exports is scheduled to be debated today during a House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing. From The Hill:

The House hearing on Tuesday will touch on 20 proposals under Energy Department (DOE) review that would green light exports to nations that lack a free-trade agreement with the United States.

Such deals face more administrative scrutiny, as federal law requires them to be in the national interest. Democrats have urged the department to exercise caution, fearing approving too many will cause domestic prices to spike.

Meanwhile, energy-hungry foreign governments — including those in Japan and India — have lobbied the White House to promptly approve applications for exports.

Some lawmakers have accused President Obama of slow-walking the decisions. They fear the United States will miss out as countries such as Australia and Canada rush into the market.

So stay tuned on this one. The damage that fracking causes in America could soon be exacerbated, for the good of the world. And for the good of the energy industry.

John Upton is a science aficionado and green news junkie who

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Should America export its fracked gas? Why greens say no.

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Surfers are canaries in the coal mine regarding dirty water

Whose responsibility is it to inform the public of safety issues? From:   Surfers are canaries in the coal mine regarding dirty water ; ;Related ArticlesGlobal Wave Conference this weekend in Baja, MexicoThe other 364 daysSaving Trestles… again ;

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Surfers are canaries in the coal mine regarding dirty water

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California Wildfire Drives Thousands From Homes

No injuries were reported, but the intensity and early arrival of the season’s first major wildfire in California offered a worrisome indicator of what may be a severe fire season. Read the article: California Wildfire Drives Thousands From Homes ; ;Related ArticlesCalifornia Wildfires May Be Controlled This Weekend, Official SaysGreentech: Squeezing More From EthanolBusiness Briefing | Company News: A Second Nuclear Plant in Turkey Is Approved ;

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California Wildfire Drives Thousands From Homes

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Keystone XL oil would be processed in sick East Texas community

Keystone XL oil would be processed in sick East Texas community

Tar Sands Blockade

Children play at a park in front of a Valero refinery in Houston, Texas.

For many, the battle over the Keystone XL pipeline is about national energy strategy and global climate change.

For residents of the Manchester neighborhood in Houston, it’s also about what will be processed and spewed into the air in their backyards.

Activist Doug Fahlbusch recently brought some attention to the community when he held up a sign at a Valero-sponsored golf tournament that said, “TAR SANDS SPILL. ANSWER MANCHESTER.” That protest got him carried away from the links by security guards and arrested.

What did Fahlbusch mean? Why are he and his colleagues at Tar Sands Blockade so concerned about Manchester?

Yes! magazine reporter Kristin Moe took a trip to the embattled neighborhood, where a refinery owned by Valero Energy Corp. could end up processing most of the tar-sands oil that flows south through the proposed Keystone XL pipeline. Here is a little of what Moe found in “Houston’s most polluted neighborhood”:

Yudith Nieto, 24, has lived in Manchester since her family came from Mexico when she was a small child. While it’s OK to visit the playground, she says, it’s not OK to bring her camera. On several occasions, security guards from the Valero refinery next door have appeared and asked her to leave, claiming that taking pictures in the park was “illegal.” They’ve even brought in Houston police as reinforcements. Valero, one of the major oil companies operating in this industrial part of Houston, keeps its security busy: Nieto says that they have harassed documentary filmmakers and journalists. And when college students participating in an “alternative spring break” program came to the park to talk to her about the neighborhood’s problems, a guard drove up in an unmarked vehicle and took video of the meeting on his cellphone. “I’m not afraid of the attention I’m getting from these people,” Nieto says, “because we want people to know that we’re aware.”

Manchester, one of Houston’s oldest neighborhoods, is surrounded by industry on all sides: a Rhodia chemical plant; a car crushing facility; a water treatment plant; a train yard for hazardous cargo; a Goodyear synthetic rubber plant; oil refineries belonging to Lyondell Basell, Valero, and Texas Petro-Chemicals; as well as one of the busiest highways in the city. Industrial development continues uninterrupted down the Houston Ship Channel for another 50 miles south to the Gulf of Mexico. The refineries around Houston have been called the “keystone to Keystone” because they’re expected to process 90 percent of tar sands crude from Alberta [PDF] if the controversial Keystone XL pipeline is completed.

It’s one of the most polluted neighborhoods in the U.S., one where smokestacks grace every backyard view. But it’s taking on a new significance as the terminus of Keystone because the pipeline is at the center of the highest-stakes environmental battle in recent years. As international pressure builds, residents are beginning to organize, educate themselves, and speak out for the health of their families. …

Manchester is in some ways typical of low-income urban neighborhoods: it’s almost entirely Latino and African American, with a large number of undocumented immigrants. A full third of residents live below the poverty line. Drugs, unemployment, and gangs are a problem. And there’s a strange smell in the air: sometimes sweet, sometimes sulfurous, often reeking of diesel. The most striking thing is that people here always seem to be sick. They have chronic headaches, nosebleeds, sore throats, and red sores on their skin that take months to heal.

Manchester is where the tar-sands rubber will hit the ground. Or where the bitumen will hit the air, if you will. To learn more about the community’s battles against Valero and Keystone XL, read the full article in Yes!

John Upton is a science aficionado and green news junkie who

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blogs about ecology

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Keystone XL oil would be processed in sick East Texas community

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Anthony Foxx, Charlotte’s transit-friendly mayor, tapped to be transportation secretary

Anthony Foxx, Charlotte’s transit-friendly mayor, tapped to be transportation secretary

City of Charlotte

Anthony Foxx in front of one form of transportation: an electric vehicle.

Today President Barack Obama will nominate the mayor of Charlotte, N.C., to the post of transportation secretary.

If confirmed by the Senate, Anthony Foxx will succeed Ray LaHood, who is stepping down from the position. Early media reports paint the Charlotte mayor and former city council member as a bright up-and-coming leader who has prioritized public transportation projects in the city that he has led for almost four years.

From The Washington Post:

[A] White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the announcement had not been made, said, “As mayor of one of America’s most vibrant cities, Anthony Foxx knows firsthand that investing in world-class infrastructure is vital to creating good jobs and ensuring American businesses can grow and compete in the global economy.”

Foxx, whose city hosted the Democratic National Convention last year, has pushed to expand public transit options for Charlotte while serving as mayor. The city has started building the Charlotte Streetcar Project, one of several electric trolley systems underway in the country, and is expanding the LYNX light-rail system so it can reach the University of North Carolina at Charlotte.

Christopher Leinberger, a professor at the George Washington University School of Business, said Foxx and his team worked closely with Charlotte business leaders to develop economic hubs around the city’s light-rail system.

From The New York Times:

Mr. Foxx, who was raised by a single mother and his grandparents, became the first black student body president at Davidson College and earned a law degree from New York University. He worked as a lawyer for a private firm as well as for the House Judiciary Committee and the Justice Department before returning to Charlotte to begin his career as an elected politician.

He has said that during his four years as mayor, he has turned around an economically afflicted city, adding 13,000 jobs, making Charlotte more hospitable to business and hosting the Democratic National Convention last year.

While Mr. Foxx does not have a transportation background, he did work as mayor to extend a light-rail line, open another runway at the airport, complete a major highway widening, improve a major bridge and bring streetcars back to Charlotte.

Not only a fan of public transit, Foxx also appears to be enamored with electric vehicles. Last year, he unveiled EV charging stations around the city.

John Upton is a science aficionado and green news junkie who

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Facebook

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blogs about ecology

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Mark Zuckerberg’s political group funds ads promoting Keystone and ANWR drilling

Mark Zuckerberg’s political group funds ads promoting Keystone and ANWR drilling

TechCrunch

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg

ThinkProgress has the story:

Mark Zuckerberg’s new political group, which bills itself as a bipartisan entity dedicated to passing immigration reform, has spent considerable resources on ads advocating a host of anti-environmental causes — including drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and constructing the Keystone XL tar sands pipeline.

The umbrella group, co-founded by Facebook’s Zuckerberg, NationBuilder’s Joe Green, LinkedIn’s Reid Hoffman, Dropbox’s Drew Houston, and others in the tech industry, is called FWD.US. …

FWD.US is bankrolling two subsidiary organizations to purchase TV ads to advance the overarching agenda — one run by veteran Republican political operatives and one led by Democratic strategists.

Both of those subsidiary groups have put out ads that praise efforts to expand the oil industry — by expanding offshore oil drilling and well as building Keystone XL and opening up ANWR. The ads don’t even mention immigration, but instead “appear to be trying to give political cover to vulnerable centrists, in hopes of ensuring their support for major immigration reform,” ThinkProgress writes.

So much for all that talk about shifting from an old, dirty, fossil-fuel-driven economy to a new, clean, knowledge-based one.

Source

Mark Zuckerberg’s New Political Group Spending Big On Ads Supporting Keystone XL And Oil Drilling, ThinkProgress

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10 states to sue Obama admin for dragging feet on climate rules

10 states to sue Obama admin for dragging feet on climate rules

Delay after delay …

While there’s virtually no chance of meaningful climate legislation passing through Congress, there are meaningful climate actions that the Obama administration can take on its own. Two big ones would be regulating carbon dioxide emissions from new power plants and from existing power plants.

But the administration is dragging its feet on both counts. A draft regulation for new plants was proposed more than a year ago, but the EPA missed a deadline this past Saturday for making it final. “EPA is likely to alter the rule in some way in an effort to make sure it can withstand a legal challenge,” The Washington Post reported on Friday, noting that the agency has not set a timetable for its finalization.

As for regulation of old power plants — which spew about one third of U.S. greenhouse gases — an EPA official said last week that the agency intends to propose a standard within 18 months.

Ten states, two major cities, and three big green groups are fed up with the delays. On Wednesday, they gave notice of their intent to sue. From the Los Angeles Times:

The jurisdictions and the environmental groups sent separate letters to the EPA … notif[ying] the regulator of the groups’ plan to sue after 60 days, if the EPA did not expedite the rules. …

The EPA proposed the rule for [new] power plants in March 2012, and under the Clean Air Act, it must issue the final version of the rule within a year of receiving public comments, the New York attorney general’s office said. But the EPA failed to meet that deadline. It has yet to give the final rule to the Office of Management and Budget at the White House, where it could be reviewed for another 120 days and, based on the progress of some other EPA rules, might be delayed indefinitely.

By finalizing the rules, the EPA would partially fulfill commitments it made in a 2011 agreement with New York Atty. Gen. Eric Schneiderman and a coalition of states to issue greenhouse gas emission standards for new and existing power plants.

Really, what’s the rush? It’s not like civilization as we know it is under imminent threat. Oh, wait …

Lisa Hymas is senior editor at Grist. You can follow her on

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Did climate change cause the epic Great Plains drought?

Did climate change cause the epic Great Plains drought?

Shutterstock

/ Christopher ElwellPrairie dogs were among the animals hit hard by last year’s Great Plains drought.

The Great Plains are finally beginning to enjoy cloudbursts of relief from two years of epic drought — the worst in the region’s history, and part of the most widespread drought to afflict the U.S. since 2000. As farms and ecosystems rehydrate, it’s worth asking: Did we do this? Did climate change cause the Great Plains drought, and the tens of billions of dollars of damage it inflicted?

The answer to these questions appears to be “no.” Or, wait, make that “yes.” Or …

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration led a study of last year’s drought in the vast plains and prairies between the Mississippi River and the Rocky Mountains. This is what they concluded:

The central Great Plains drought during May-August of 2012 resulted mostly from natural variations in weather.

• Moist Gulf of Mexico air failed to stream northward in late spring as cyclone and frontal activity were shunted unusually northward.
• Summertime thunderstorms were infrequent and when they did occur produced little rainfall.
• Neither ocean states nor human-induced climate change, factors that can provide long-lead predictability, appeared to play significant roles in causing severe rainfall deficits over the major corn producing regions of central Great Plains. …

Official seasonal forecasts issued in April 2012 did not anticipate this widespread severe drought. Above normal temperatures were, however, anticipated in climate models, though not the extreme heat wave that occurred and which was driven primarily by the absence of rain.

In other words, federal scientists found that last year’s drought was a freak weather event, not a bitter dessert served up by global warming, although some of the heat that accompanied it was the cherry that global warming placed on top. That’s good news if it suggests that the hitherto parched plains are not necessarily the new normal.

But — of course there’s a but — at least one respected climate scientist says the study is incomplete and misleading. Kevin Trenberth, the former head of the Climate Analysis Section at the Colorado-based National Center for Atmospheric Research, points out that NOAA’s analysis fails to consider the role that certain climate change–induced meteorological phenomena played in compounding the drought. Phenomena such as a diminished regional snowpack, which robbed the environment of moisture that would ordinarily have cooled the air and quenched plants and animals as it melted amid the shortage of rain. “[N]o attempt was made to include soil moisture, snow cover anomalies, or vegetation health” in the models that NOAA used to reach its conclusions, Trenberth wrote.

From a note that Trenberth sent to journalists, reported by Climate Progress:

There is no discussion of evaporation, or potential evapotranspiration, which is greatly enhanced by increased heat-trapping greenhouse gases. In fact, given prevailing anticyclonic conditions, the expectation is for drought that is exacerbated by global warming, greatly increasing the heat waves and wild fire risk. The omission of any such considerations is a MAJOR failure of this publication.

So, who is right? By studying some weather patterns, NOAA says the drought was a freak weather event not triggered by climate change. But by looking at other metrics, Trenberth says climate change worsened the drought and its impacts.

Amid such scientific hubbub, it’s easy to get lost in the specifics of the research and lose sight of what matters. Which is that the more greenhouse gases we pump into the air, the more frequent and severe will be the droughts that afflict many regions of the world, including central North America.

John Upton is a science aficionado and green news junkie who

tweets

, posts articles to

Facebook

, and

blogs about ecology

. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants:

johnupton@gmail.com

.

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Did climate change cause the epic Great Plains drought?

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