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Poli Sci Profs Say Poli Sci Wizardry Didn’t Help Obama In 2012 After All

Mother Jones

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Ryan Enos and Anthony Fowler have a new paper out that tries to figure out if the Obama campaign’s widely reported techno-wizardry in the 2012 election really produced a big get-out-the-vote advantage over Mitt Romney. Apparently not:

The Obama campaign of 2012 has been championed as the most technologically-sophisticated, evidence-based campaign in history while the Romney campaign was more traditional. Does this difference manifest itself in the data? Did the technological sophistication of the Obama campaign lead their GOTV efforts to be significantly more effective than Romney’s?

…. Our analysis, while admittedly crude, allows us to roughly compare the effectiveness of the Obama and Romney campaigns in mobilizing their respective supporters. Despite the technological sophistication of the Obama campaign and its devotion to a data-driven, evidence-based campaign, we see similar mobilization effects on both sides of Figure 2. It appears that the two campaigns were roughly comparable in their ability to turn out supporters.

Logic and conventional wisdom suggest that you should concentrate your GOTV effort on strong partisans, since these are the people most likely to vote for you. These are the voters Enos and Fowler analyze, and they conclude that both campaigns mobilized strong partisans about as well. Strongly organized precincts showed a 7 percent improvement in turnout on both sides.

Now, it could well be that the Obama campaign spent more money on GOTV and was thus able to influence more voters. It’s also possible that Obama was able to perform sophisticated targeting that went beyond just the most rabid partisans. So take this with a grain of salt. But if Enos and Fowler are right, the poli-sci-driven rocket science of the Obama campaign didn’t actually make much difference. The core GOTV efforts of both campaigns were about equally effective.

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Poli Sci Profs Say Poli Sci Wizardry Didn’t Help Obama In 2012 After All

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Quote of the Day: People Sure Use Their Webcams for a Lot of Kinky Stuff

Mother Jones

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From Britain’s GCHQ, lamenting the images they got when they tapped into Yahoo webcam chats:

It would appear that a surprising number of people use webcam conversations to show intimate parts of their body to the other person.

Imagine that. On a more serious note, GCHQ was tapping into Yahoo webcam chats:

Britain’s surveillance agency GCHQ, with aid from the US National Security Agency, intercepted and stored the webcam images of millions of internet users not suspected of wrongdoing, secret documents reveal.

GCHQ files dating between 2008 and 2010 explicitly state that a surveillance program codenamed Optic Nerve collected still images of Yahoo webcam chats in bulk and saved them to agency databases, regardless of whether individual users were an intelligence target or not.

In one six-month period in 2008 alone, the agency collected webcam imagery — including substantial quantities of sexually explicit communications — from more than 1.8 million Yahoo user accounts globally.

Unsurprisingly, Yahoo was not amused when it learned about this.

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Quote of the Day: People Sure Use Their Webcams for a Lot of Kinky Stuff

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Chris Christie’s Aides Sure Did Joke About Traffic Jams a Lot

Mother Jones

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I haven’t written about Bridgegate lately, figuring that MSNBC’s saturation coverage is probably plenty for anyone who’s truly interested in every last jot and tittle of speculation about what happened. Today, though, the New York Times adds something concrete to the story: yet another exchange between two of the people at the center of the scandal. For some obscure reason, they appear to have gotten annoyed with Rabbi Mendy Carlebach of South Brunswick Township, which prompted this exchange:

“We cannot cause traffic problems in front of his house, can we?” wrote Bridget Anne Kelly, then a deputy chief of staff for Mr. Christie.

David Wildstein, a Christie ally at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, suggested that they should think bigger. “Flights to Tel Aviv all mysteriously delayed,” Mr. Wildstein wrote. (Again, he appeared to be kidding.)

This came a few days after Kelly’s infamous email to Wildstein that gleefully declared, “Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee.” Apparently these two were pretty pleased with their little traffic jam idea and joked about it repeatedly. This adds to the evidence that they considered traffic jams a form of political retaliation, and that this was what motivated the lane closures at Fort Lee.

There’s still no evidence that Christie knew what they were doing, but Kelly and Wildstein sure seemed to think they were working in an environment in which this kind of thing was just another day at the office. It probably was.

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Chris Christie’s Aides Sure Did Joke About Traffic Jams a Lot

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Relearning the Past: Yes, Rising Inequality is Bad for Economic Growth

Mother Jones

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Does high income inequality lead to lower economic growth? There are two main reasons to think it might. The first is simple: rich people spend a smaller percentage of their income than the non-rich. Thus, as more and more income accrues to the rich, we get less net consumption and thus slower growth.

The evidence on this score turns out to be pretty hazy. It seems logical, but if you look at consumption trends over time you just don’t see it. But there’s a second theory that’s more interesting: as inequality rises, the rich increasingly need to find good places to invest all the money they’re accumulating. Eventually concrete business opportunities start to become scarce, so they look around for other places to put their money to work. In practice, this means the rich become net lenders to the middle class. They can hardly be loaning money to each other, after all, since they all have more of it than they can use for current consumption.

So the rich lend money to the middle class, which is an eager recipient because their incomes are stagnant. But as the debt load of the middle class increases, this lending becomes ever more Byzantine and ever more risky. Eventually, the middle class simply can’t take on more debt and the whole system comes to a screeching halt. The result is an economic recession as consumers try to work themselves out from under the mountain of debt they’ve run up.

There’s an intriguing amount of evidence to back up this theory, and in a new report released yesterday a team of IMF researchers provides another reason to believe it. They find that high inequality is indeed associated with slower growth, but the mechanism for that slower growth comes in reduced growth spells. That is, it’s not that countries with high inequality have steady growth rates that happen to be a little lower than countries with low inequality. Rather, they have shorter spells of economic expansion. In particular, the authors find that a 1-point increase in a country’s GINI score (a measure of inequality) is associated with a decrease of about 7 percent in the length of its growth spells.

In other words, countries with high inequality simply can’t maintain economic booms as long as countries with lower inequality. This is consistent with the idea that growth in these countries is driven partly by the rich loaning money to the middle class, which is obviously less sustainable than growth driven by an increase in middle-class wages. In high-inequality countries, growth is too dependent on financialization and leverage. When the merry-go-round stops, as it inevitably must, the boom times are over.

The IMF team also found that—within reason—redistribution doesn’t seem to harm growth. In fact, just the opposite: “The combined direct and indirect effects of redistribution—including the growth effects of the resulting lower inequality—are on average pro-growth.”

To pick up on the theme of the previous post, this is something we all understood back in the era when unions were powerful advocates for the middle class. Of course rising middle-class wages are a prerequisite for sustainable growth in a mixed consumer economy like ours. And the more stagnant those wages are—and the aughts were by far the worst decade for stagnant wages since World War II—the more fragile economic growth is.

Now we have an IMF report to add to the technical evidence that middle-class wage stagnation is bad for the economy. But who has the raw political power to force the business community to listen to it?

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Relearning the Past: Yes, Rising Inequality is Bad for Economic Growth

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CBO Gives Flunking Grade to Republican Plan on Obamacare Mandate

Mother Jones

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“Ouchy ouchy,” says Ed Kilgore today. “No conservative love for CBO this week, I suspect.”

There was plenty of conservative love for the CBO last week, of course, because they estimated that an increase in the minimum wage might reduce employment. This week, however, the subject is a conservative plan to eliminate the Obamacare requirement that employers with health plans cover everyone working more than 30 hours a week. Republicans have been bellyaching forever that this is going to cause employers to reduce hours in order to get workers just under the 30-hour minimum, thus causing enormous pain to hardworking real Americans throughout the country. There’s not much evidence that this is actually happening, but whatever. They want to get rid of the 30-hour mandate anyway.

Sadly, the CBO’s opinion of a Republican bill to do this was not good. The bill would reduce the number of workers covered by employer healthcare by about a million people; increase use of Medicaid and CHIP; and increase the budget deficit by about $74 billion over ten years.

That’s some bill. I think Kilgore is right that Republicans aren’t going to be giving the CBO a lot of love this week.

UPDATE: And while we’re on the subject, Republican attacks on Obamacare just generally don’t seem to be doing well lately. In the latest Kaiser survey asking Americans if they want to keep Obamacare or repeal it, the keepers are ahead by a margin of 56-31 percent. That’s up from last year, when they were up by only 47-37 percent. Greg Sargent has the deets here.

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CBO Gives Flunking Grade to Republican Plan on Obamacare Mandate

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Dave Camp’s Tax Reform Plan May Be DOA, But It Should Be Fun Anyway

Mother Jones

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Speaking of Dave Camp’s tax reform plan, it’s out now. It may be DOA, but it’s out. In a nutshell, it reduces rates, reduces the number of tax brackets, and increases both the standard deduction and the child tax credit. As a result, many fewer people would have to file 1040 long forms. To make up for this, Camp proposes limiting or eliminating a raft of deductions and tax breaks. Here’s my favorite:

Preventing makers of violent video games from qualifying for the R&D tax credit.

Boo-yah! That’s the way to play culture war politics in a boring tax reform proposal. There are also references to “Wall Street tycoons”—not a phrase you normally hear from a Republican—and a proposal to end tax breaks that allow university presidents to live in mansions tax free. Populism!

Joking aside, I’ll give Camp credit for going after a long laundry list of very specific deductions. On the other hand, he also appears to finance his plan partly through an effective cut in the Earned Income Tax Credit. I can’t say that for sure without more details, but it sure looks that way on first inspection. The plan also “consolidates” higher education tax breaks, which might be a good idea, though it’s hard to tell without more details. If it’s just an excuse to reduce financial aid, it’s not so good.

There’s also a proposal for a small change to the mortgage interest deduction—a brave act even if it’s fairly paltry—and a proposal to partially end the carried interest loophole. Camp also proposes a 0.035 percent tax on big banks, which is probably a good idea. Camp repeals the AMT, which is a great idea, and funds it by eliminating the tax deduction for state and local taxes. This is a longtime favorite of conservatives because, as Camp says, “This deduction redistributes wealth to big-government, high-tax states from small-government, low-tax states.” In other words, it benefits blue states more than red states, so why not get rid of it?

He also wants to get rid of the NFL’s tax exemption. Sounds good to me.

Camp’s plan is long and includes upwards of a hundred specific tax deductions that he wants to reform or eliminate. There are enough caveats that it’s hard to tell exactly how far his proposals go, but again, kudos to him for making specific proposals at all. His plan may be DOA precisely because he was so specific, but kudos anyway. I’ll be interested in following the reaction as everyone figures out just whose ox would be gored by his various bullet points. Should be fun.

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Dave Camp’s Tax Reform Plan May Be DOA, But It Should Be Fun Anyway

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Quote of the Day: Tax Reform Is Dead On Arrival

Mother Jones

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From Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, commenting on his House colleague Dave Camp’s tax reform bill:

I think we will not be able to finish the job, regretfully. I don’t see how we can.

And….that’s a wrap, folks. Tax reform is officially a dead letter before poor old Dave Camp even had a chance to unveil his plan.

Naturally, McConnell blames this sad state of affairs on Democrats, because what else would he do? But I think everyone understands the real truth here: Republicans have no stomach for debating tax reform in an election year. Why? For the usual reason: everyone loves lower rates, but no one has the guts to so much as discuss the tax breaks they’d close to make up for the lower rates. Paul Ryan refuses to do this on an annual basis when he releases his latest budget roadmap. Mitt Romney famously tap danced around the subject for months in 2012. No one wanted to open this can of worms during either the fiscal cliff negotiations or any of the sequester standoffs.

Nothing has changed since then. If you talk about the mortgage interest deduction, you piss off millions of homeowners. If you talk about the carried interest loophole, you piss off billions of dollars worth of hedge fund managers. If you talk about the charitable deduction, every church in America will go ballistic. If you talk about 401(k)s, you piss off old people. If you talk about the exclusion of healthcare benefits from taxation, you piss off every middle-class worker in America. If you talk about capital gains rates, you might as well just kiss off your membership in the conservative movement.

“Broadening the base” sounds great when you use bloodless terms like “broadening the base.” But when you translate that into actual tax deductions you want to get rid of, it doesn’t sound so great at all. Mitch McConnell knows this perfectly well, and he wants this particular Pandora’s Box to stay well and truly sealed for at least the next eight months. His mama didn’t raise no fools.

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Quote of the Day: Tax Reform Is Dead On Arrival

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A Poison Aficionado’s Guide to 6 Killer Chemicals

Science journalist Deborah Blum explores the homicidal—and, the environmental—ways that chemistry can do us in. Steve and Sara Emry/Flickr As a writer, Deborah Blum says she has a “love of evil chemistry.” It seems that audiences do too: Her latest book, The Poisoner’s Handbook: Murder and the Birth of Forensic Medicine in Jazz Age New York, was not only a bestseller, but was just turned into a film by PBS (you can watch it for free here). The book tells the story of Charles Norris, New York City’s first medical examiner, and Alexander Gettler, his toxicologist and forensic chemist. They were a scientific and medical duo who brought real evidence and reliable forensic techniques to the pressing task of apprehending poisoners, who were running rampant at the time because there was no science capable of catching them. “When Norris came to office in 1918, the same year, the city of New York actually published a report saying that poisoners could operate with impunity in New York City,” explains Blum on the latest episode of the Inquiring Minds podcast [stream below]. Arsenic, cyanide, chloroform—such were some of the favorites of poisoners in the 1920s. Detecting each one presented a different scientific challenge. Take arsenic: “It’s tasteless, so you can put it into anything and your victim doesn’t know,” says Blum. “It’s odorless. They can’t find it that way either. It mimics the symptoms of a natural illness…and, you can’t find it in the body. So even if you’re suspicious, you can’t prove that that person was poisoned. So no wonder it was a golden age for poisoners.” Deborah Blum. Forensic chemistry has come a long way since then, and poisoners don’t exactly run rampant any longer. But poisoning still happens. And as Blum notes in the other branch of her writing—reporting on environmental chemistry for the New York Times—environmental contaminants are, in effect, poisons as well. So on the podcast, Blum helped us to compile this list of the six most worrisome modern day poisons, whether environmental or otherwise, chosen both for their prominence and for the danger they pose. Here they are, progressing from the environmental to the, er, homicidal: 1. Lead. Mother Jones’ Kevin Drum has documented just how deleterious this naturally occurring heavy metal is to us. Lead is particularly dangerous to children, because it acts as a neurotoxin that can stunt brain development. And it’s all around us: Naturally occurring in the soil, but also in substances ranging from paint in older houses, to pipes, to lipstick (the latter in very small amounts that the FDA says are safe). “As a poison, there’s not one redeeming thing you can say about lead. It’s just bad,” says Blum. “And I like to remind people, it’s still around, we’re still exposing ourselves to it, and everyone’s at risk.” For more comprehensive information about lead risks in your home, see this infographic or click here. Native arsenic from the Natural History Museum, London. Aram Dulyan/Wikimedia Commons 2. Arsenic. Another naturally occurring heavy metal, arsenic may not be the favored tool of criminal poisoners that it once was. But its environmental presence remains a serious hazard, in both food and water. “Arsenic is also unambiguously bad for you,” says Blum. “It’s bad at a high dose, and it’s bad at a very low dose.” Because arsenic is naturally found in the Earth’s crust, it makes its way into groundwater, and some of us drink it in dangerous concentrations. One risk arises when people dig their own private wells. Arsenic is also a by-product of industrial activities like mining and smelting, and it makes its way into our food: Rice products are a particular concern. Long-term exposure can lead to various types of cancer, among other health threats. 3. Carbon Monoxide. “I do Google alerts on poison and poisoning, and there are some days where my dose of 10 news stories about people made sick or dead are all carbon monoxide,” says Blum. “Especially in the winter. Especially after a big storm, or in cold temperatures.” Carbon monoxide is a gas that has no color or odor, but that can kill quickly if it is allowed to reach high concentrations in an enclosed space. It results from combustion in gas appliances, chimneys, heaters, generators, and cars. According to the CDC, 400 Americans die each year from carbon monoxide poisoning. Carbon monoxide detector. Judy van der Velden/Flickr Notably, none of these hazards—lead, arsenic, carbon monoxide—represent some fancy new chemical innovation. Rather, they’re enduring poisons, to which we continue to live in close proximity. “They’re a reminder that we are smarter than we were, about poisonous things, in the days of Gettler and Norris,” says Blum. “But we’re not as smart as we should be.” And then there are the substances that malicious poisoners tend to turn to today. Intentional poisonings are not nearly so rampant as they were in the 1920s, but they’re still out there. Here are some of today’s poisoners’ favorite tools: 4. Ethylene Glycol (Antifreeze). Ethylene glycol is the top ingredient in antifreeze, among other chemical substances. And “it’s actually one of the number one homicidal poisons in the United States,” says Blum. The reason is that ethylene glycol has a sweet taste, a perfect quality in the hands of a poisoner. Plus, buying antifreeze is not generally seen as a suspicious activity. The Poisoner’s Handbook. PBS Here’s one ethylene glycol case: A Georgia woman named Lynn Turner was convicted in 2004 of murdering her husband, and later her boyfriend, by serving them antifreeze, apparently in Jello and other foods and drinks. Here’s another: A doctor in Houston was indicted last year for allegedly placing ethylene glycol in a colleague’s coffee and claiming it was an artificial sweetener, Splenda. (The case is awaiting trial.) “You see people turn to it a lot,” says Blum. “It’s a very nasty poison. It metabolizes to form these very sharp crystals, calcium oxalate crystals, that will slice and dice your kidneys.” Also at risk are animals, says, Blum: Ethylene glycol is “the number one choice” when angry neighbors decide to poison a pet. 5. Ricin. In April of last year, an envelope was received at the US Capitol containing a “white granular substance.” The letter had been sent to the office of Mississippi Senator Roger Wicker. Upon analysis, the substance turned out to be ricin, an extremely deadly, naturally occurring poison that is found in castor beans and can be created from by-products of the making of castor oil. Ricin can come in various forms, including powder or mist, and when inhaled or ingested, causes cell death. This wasn’t the first time there was an attempt to send it through the mail: In 2003, two ricin letters were found at postal facilities in South Carolina and Tennessee; one was addressed to “The White House.” Ricin has long been a favored bioterror agent; for a thorough review of its history and biological effects, see here. An FBI-released image of a ricin letter addressed to the White House in 2003. FBI/Wikimedia Commons 6. Polonium-210. Finally, we come to the really hi-tech poisoning. The radioactive isotope Polonium-210 decays and releases alpha particles; if it does so inside your body, it can be lethal even in small amounts, bringing on death by radiation poisoning. Polonium-210 has been in the news because of charges (unproven ones, Blum thinks) that it was used to murder Yassir Arafat; before that, a Russian dissident, Alexander Litvinenko, was confirmed to have been killed with Polonium-210 in 2006. But unlike antifreeze, this one is hard to get your hands on: You need a nuclear reactor to make it in deadly amounts, though it also occurs naturally in the Earth’s crust and thus, is present in small quantities in the environment. Poisoners who actually try to wield substances like these are undoubtedly “creepy, cold, and calculating,” as Blum puts it. But the real takeaway lesson from her writings and research on poisoning, she thinks, is a different one. “Most of us are surrounded by these really bad things, and we don’t try to harm people with them,” Blum says. “Most of us really want, I think, to see our chemical world be one that makes people safer. And so it’s a really interesting way to explore our history and who we are.” You can stream the full Inquiring Minds interview with Deborah Blum here: This episode of Inquiring Minds, a podcast hosted by best-selling author Chris Mooney and neuroscientist and musician Indre Viskontas, also features an interview with Quartz meteorology writer Eric Holthaus about whether global warming may be producing more extreme cold weather in the mid-latitudes, just like what much of America experienced this week. To catch future shows right when they are released, subscribe to Inquiring Minds viaiTunesorRSS. You can also follow the show on Twitter at @inquiringshow and like us on Facebook. Inquiring Minds was also recently singled out as one of the “Best of 2013″ shows on iTunes—you can learn more here. Taken from: A Poison Aficionado’s Guide to 6 Killer Chemicals ; ;Related ArticlesBrrrr: Incredible Photos of the Polar VortexWhy the Arctic Is Drunk Right NowAntarctic Sea Ice Increase is Because of Weather, Not Climate ;

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A Poison Aficionado’s Guide to 6 Killer Chemicals

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NASA’s Christmas Eve ‘Earthrise,’ Revisited and Revisualized

A fresh look at NASA’s iconic Earthrise moment. Visit site: NASA’s Christmas Eve ‘Earthrise,’ Revisited and Revisualized ; ;Related ArticlesReflections on the Killing of Chico Mendes 25 Years AgoA Gift That Keeps on Giving – to Strumming MusiciansJapan’s Diaper Shift and Global Population Trends ;

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NASA’s Christmas Eve ‘Earthrise,’ Revisited and Revisualized

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Watch From Space As the Moon Orbits Around Earth

What you’re looking at is a video of the Moon, in orbit around the Earth, as seen by a satellite that’s flying 87,000 miles per hour on its way to Jupiter. Science!

Back in October, NASA’s Juno satellite whipped past the Earth, using our planet’s gravitational pull as a slingshot to boost it up to speed for its long journey to the outer solar system. As Juno sailed by, its cameras captured this rare scene, a far-off look at the celestial dance shared by the Earth and the Moon.

This is not the first time we’ve watched from afar as Moon passed by Earth.

Back in 2008, the Deep Impact spacecraft, fresh off its main mission to smash into a comet, turned its camera back towards Earth to capture this, a gorgeous view of the Moon transiting in front of our planet.

Astronomer Phil Plait’s enthusiasm back in 2008 holds just as true for the new look offered by Juno, too.

Take a look at that, folks. It’s us, seen from 50 million kilometers away. I’ve seen many images of the Earth and Moon together as taken by distant spacecraft, but this, seeing them in motion, really brings home — if I may use that highly ironic term — just where we are: a planetary system, an astronomical body, a blue orb hanging in space orbited by a desolate moon. This is a view that is literally impossible from the ground. Only a spacefaring race gets the privilege of this view from a height.

More from Smithsonian.com:

Eclipses Look Even More Gorgeous From Outer Space
A Solar Eclipse, As Seen From the Surface of Mars

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Watch From Space As the Moon Orbits Around Earth

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