Tag Archives: world

Judges Are Just Extensions of Political Parties These Days

by OliviaMonahan Posted on May 26, 2015

Mother Jones

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From a post by Dara Lind about a court ruling on President Obama’s immigration plan:

The two Republican-appointed judges hearing the case sided against the administration, while the Democratic-appointed judge on the panel sided with the White House.

How many times have we read sentences exactly like this? It’s a wonder that anyone in the country still believes that federal judges are honest brokers these days.

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Judges Are Just Extensions of Political Parties These Days

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Ireland Is Latest Country to Approve Gay Marriage

by KishaMoncrieff Posted on May 23, 2015

Mother Jones

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I don’t have anything profound to say about this, but it’s just a nice piece of good news. And I could use some good news these day:

Irish voters have resoundingly backed amending the constitution to legalize gay marriage, leaders on both sides of the Irish referendum declared Saturday after the world’s first national vote on the issue.

As the official ballot counting continued, the only question appeared to be how large the “yes” margin of victory from Friday’s vote would be. Analysts said the “yes” support was likely to exceed 60 percent nationally when official results are announced later Saturday.

Congratulations to Ireland. This is both a human and humane gesture in a world that could use more of them.

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Ireland Is Latest Country to Approve Gay Marriage

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These Are the Jobs Robots Will Take From Humans, According To Researchers With Jobs…For Now

by DonnaDunagan Posted on May 22, 2015

Mother Jones

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The coming robot invasion is suddenly a hot topic again. This week, Fresh Air interviewed Martin Ford, whose book Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future was just reviewed in the New York Times by Barbara Ehrenreich. The Harvard Business Review published a long article with advice for protecting your career from super-smart robots. And NPR’s Planet Money has been producing a series of stories on how machines are getting really good at doing tasks from serving food and writing news articles to reading emotions.

As MoJo‘s Kevin Drum, who’s been following this rapidly emerging trend for while, explains, by 2030 or 2040 we could see a major economic shift in which robots and computers start to make significant chunks of the human workforce obsolete: “When the robot revolution finally starts to happen, it’s going to happen fast, and it’s going to turn our world upside down.”

So just how worried should you be that a bot or app is about to force you into early retirement? Planet Money made a nifty tool that spits out the chances that your job may soon be done by robots or computers. Some selected results:

Telemarketers: 99.0% chance of being automated

Umpires and referees: 98.3%

Cooks: 96.3%

Manicurists and pedicurists: 94.5%

Roofers: 89.7%

Janitors: 66.3%

Massage therapists: 54.1%

Programmers: 48.1%

Historians: 43.9%

Judges: 40.1%

Actors: 37.4%

Dancers: 12.7%

Writers: 3.8%

Chief executives: 1.5%

Foresters: 0.8%

Preschool teachers: 0.7%

The numbers, based on a 2013 study by an economist and a machine-learning prof from Oxford, are all over the board. In general, jobs that require negotiation, creativity, and people skills tend to have a lower chance of being done by a robot. So dancers and preschool teachers can sleep easy. As can CEOs, who will no doubt find a way to provide essential oversight of the new 24-7, benefit- and bathroom break-free workforce.

Some of the findings seem to push the bounds of what we’re currently willing to let machines do. Robocalling people during dinnertime, sure. But will we really see a robot ump calling the 2040 World Series? In theory, a computer can call a strike more accurately than a person, but what’s the fun in shouting “Get your vision algorithm debugged!” at a camera behind home plate?

Only a mindless machine would read these as precise probabilities. “The researchers admit that these estimates are rough and likely to be wrong,” Planet Money concedes. Now if only there were a machine that was good at analyzing data to make reliable estimates…

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These Are the Jobs Robots Will Take From Humans, According To Researchers With Jobs…For Now

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For the First Time Ever, Social Conservatives No Longer Outnumber Social Liberals in America

by BoyceTindale Posted on May 22, 2015

Mother Jones

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Via Ed Kilgore, here’s an interesting chart from the good folks at Gallup:

What’s interesting about this is that the change is due almost entirely to Democrats and Democratic leaners. Since 1999, that group has gone from 35 percent socially liberal to 53 percent, and from 20 percent socially conservative to 14 percent conservative.

Republicans and Republican leaners, by contrast, have barely budged. In the 2015 polling there’s a slight dip in conservative ID and a slight spike in moderate ID, but it’s probably just noise. Generally speaking, the lines are pretty flat over the past couple of decades.

So why have Democrats changed so much? Perhaps it’s the impact of Millennials. Perhaps it’s the impact of gay marriage, which Democrats have been far more willing to accept than Republicans. Maybe MSNBC and liberal blogs have had a bigger impact than I would have guessed. I’m not sure. But the increase has been steady enough that it can’t be blamed on any specific event, like the Bush presidency or the financial crisis.

In any case, this really is a milestone. For a long time, one of the rocks of political analysis in America has been the simple fact that conservatives outnumber liberals. That’s been true since at least the 60s, and probably for the entire postwar period—and it’s been a perpetual millstone around Democratic necks. They couldn’t win national elections just by getting the liberal vote and a little bit of the center-right vote. They had to get a lot of the center-right vote.

But it now looks like that era is coming to an end. With social issues increasingly defining politics, a social liberal is, for all practical purposes, just a plain old liberal—and the trend of increasing liberal ID is already underway. It’s still got a ways to go, but the liberal-conservative gap is definitely closing. This probably goes a long way toward explaining why Hillary Clinton and other Democrats seem much more willing to move left than in the past. It’s because they no longer think they have to capture a huge chunk of the moderate vote to win. They still need some moderates in their camp, but they no longer need to capture two-thirds or more of them. Like Republicans, they can make do with half or even a bit less.

UPDATE: The headline initially just said “liberal” and “conservative” without mentioning that it was about social liberals and conservatives. Too much shorthand. Sorry about that. I’ve changed the headline and a few words of the text to make everything clear.

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For the First Time Ever, Social Conservatives No Longer Outnumber Social Liberals in America

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Don’t Panic: Health Insurance Rates Aren’t About to Rise by 50 Percent

by EstellaMassie Posted on May 22, 2015

Mother Jones

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Here’s the latest Fox News bait from the Wall Street Journal:

Major insurers in some states are proposing hefty rate boosts for plans sold under the federal health law, setting the stage for an intense debate this summer over the law’s impact.

In New Mexico, market leader Health Care Service Corp. is asking for an average jump of 51.6% in premiums for 2016. The biggest insurer in Tennessee, BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee, has requested an average 36.3% increase. In Maryland, market leader CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield wants to raise rates 30.4% across its products. Moda Health, the largest insurer on the Oregon health exchange, seeks an average boost of around 25%.

All of them cite high medical costs incurred by people newly enrolled under the Affordable Care Act.

Well, of course they do. It’s a handy excuse, so why not use it?

In any case, we’ve all seen this movie before. Republicans will latch onto it as evidence of how Obamacare is destroying American health care and it will enjoy a nice little run for them. Then, a few months from now, the real rate increases—the ones approved by state and federal authorities—will begin to trickle out. They’ll mostly be in single digits, with a few in the low teens. The average for the entire country will end up being something like 4-8 percent.

So don’t panic. Sure, it’s possible that the Obamacare shit has finally hit the fan, but probably not. Check back in October before you worry too much about stories like this.

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Don’t Panic: Health Insurance Rates Aren’t About to Rise by 50 Percent

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Does Mike Huckabee Know Where the Ark of the Covenant Is Buried?

by KeenanAltman50 Posted on May 22, 2015

Mother Jones

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Harry Moskoff wouldn’t immediately strike you as the guy to discover the true location of the Ark of the Covenant, the chest that supposedly once held the stone tablets on which the Ten Commandments were written. He was born in Canada, studied jazz at Berklee College of Music, worked in IT, and started a company that specialized in copyright infringement claims when he moved to Tel Aviv 10 years ago. But in his free time, the ordained rabbi has dabbled in biblical archeology, poring over ancient texts and contemporary works, in search of any unturned stone that might help him track down the ark.

“I came up with a theory via Maimonides as to where the ark is located, which I later discussed with rabbis and archeologists in Israel,” he told the Times of Israel in 2013. “It was a Jewish Da Vinci Code type project.” His grand theory? It’s been in Jerusalem all this time, buried underneath the courtyard of the Temple of Solomon. To promote his discovery, in 2013 he made a sci-fi movie called The A.R.K. Report.

Last year, Moskoff, who describes himself as a “Jewish Indiana Jones,” published a non-fiction book, also called The A.R.K. Report, chronicling his search for this legendary artifact, and he got a boost from a higher power of a different sort—former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who is now a Republican presidential candidate.

“From the days of ancient history to the modern interest created by movies like ‘Raiders of the Lost Ark,’ there has been a dogged curiosity about the biblical ‘Ark of the Covenant,'” Huckabee wrote in a blurb. “Rabbi Harry Moskoff’s spellbinding book, ‘The Ark Report,’ takes curiosity to clarity and gives the reader an understanding of why the authenticity of the real Ark could be a game changer for the world.”

Huckabee had one good reason to endorse the Moskoff’s book—he was in it. Moskoff snagged a sit-down interview with the former governor and featured it prominently in the middle of the book. In this lengthy Q&A, Huckabee discussed a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (he was against it) and claimed the Obama administration was too cowardly to confront Iran. Huckabee, a onetime Baptist minister, also weighed in on Markoff’s theory regarding the ark, noting that modern-day archeology has consistently proven that the stories of the Bible are true:

Moskoff’s’s theories go beyond the ark’s location. He claims that the CIA is “interested” in his “findings” and that the spy agency has interfered with archeological digs to prevent the discovery of biblical artifacts. Why would the spy service do this? Because the unearthing of such items, including the ark, would strengthen Israel’s claim to disputed territory.

So is a top-secret US agency conspiring to hide the Ark of the Covenant and other biblical evidence from the rest of the world for covert geopolitical motives? If elected president, will Huckabee undo this CIA cover-up and also reveal the ark and its godly power to all? In any event, we’ve seen this movie before:

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Does Mike Huckabee Know Where the Ark of the Covenant Is Buried?

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ISIS Just Captured One of Syria’s Most Magnificent Ancient Cities

by JulianneMilner3 Posted on May 20, 2015

Mother Jones

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On Wednesday, militants from the so-called Islamic State captured the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra. After nearly a week of fighting, government forces reportedly fled the city, according to the British monitoring group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Palmyra, a desert outpost of 50,000 people, sits on a strategic highway and is close to several gas fields that ISIS has repeatedly attacked. It’s also a magnificent UNESCO World Heritage site known for its 2,000-year-old, Roman-era tombs, temple, colonnades, and artifacts, as well as a storied mythology.

As ISIS has taken more territory, it has damaged or destroyed many cultural heritage sites and priceless artifacts. Condemning much ancient art as idolatry, its fighters have chiseled the face off of a 3,000-year-old Assyrian winged bull and broken apart statues of the kings of Hatra. And, as I’ve reported, what ISIS doesn’t destroy, it loots and sells on the international black market to fund its activities.

When ISIS reached the gates of Palmyra late last week, fears arose that the World Heritage site would face the same kind of destruction seen elsewhere. Amr Al-Azm, an archeologist who works with a secret network of activists trying to safeguard Syria’s cultural heritage, told me, “If they get their hands on a World Heritage site, the looting itself could be bad, plus they have a ready made site for cultural heritage atrocities that they’re very likely to commit. Palmyra is full of Roman tombs and carvings. They’ll smash up what they want and steal what they want. It’s an iconoclast’s heaven.”

As of this evening, ISIS militants had seized the city, and the ruins were left “unguarded.” Syria’s antiquities director Maamoun Abdulkarim has claimed that hundreds of statues have been moved to safety. But nothing can be done for the remaining structures at the ancient site. Before ISIS took the town, AbdulKarim told the Guardian, “If ISIS enters Palmyra, it will spell its destruction. If the ancient city falls, it will be an international catastrophe.”

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ISIS Just Captured One of Syria’s Most Magnificent Ancient Cities

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Taylor Swift: "Misogyny Is Ingrained in People From the Time They Are Born"

by SalvatoRech Posted on May 19, 2015

Mother Jones

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According to this year’s “Hot 100” list, an annual inventory in which Maxim‘s editors meticulously rank famous women by level of attractiveness, Taylor Swift is 2015’s reigning queen of female hotness. Rather than use the title to gloat about her declared hotness, Swift used the magazine’s cover to call out the double standards women face everyday and the importance of feminism in her life today: From Maxim:

Honestly, I didn’t have an accurate definition of feminism when I was younger. I didn’t quite see all the ways that feminism is vital to growing up in the world we live in. I think that when I used to say, “Oh, feminism’s not really on my radar,” it was because when I was just seen as a kid, I wasn’t as threatening. I didn’t see myself being held back until I was a woman. Or the double standards in headlines, the double standards in the way stories are told, the double standards in the way things are perceived.

Swift’s interview is especially noteworthy considering in 2012, she shied away from the label to the Daily Beast, telling the news site she didn’t view matters as a “guys versus girls” situation. This was also during a time in which the media unfairly portrayed Swift as something of a pathetic boy chaser—a female singer who used her lyrics to lament about the latest boy who got away.

Since then, she has shattered that image with very real, thoughtful insight into an industry built on sexist frameworks:

A man writing about his feelings from a vulnerable place is brave; a woman writing about her feelings from a vulnerable place is oversharing or whining. Misogyny is ingrained in people from the time they are born. So to me, feminism is probably the most important movement that you could embrace, because it’s just basically another word for equality.

This is what young girls need today. Now, we leave you with her badass new video, “Bad Blood.”

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Taylor Swift: "Misogyny Is Ingrained in People From the Time They Are Born"

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Scientists will never build a perfect climate model, but that’s OK

by CasimiraShephar Posted on May 14, 2015

model problems

Scientists will never build a perfect climate model, but that’s OK

By on 14 May 2015commentsShare

When we talk about climate models, it’s all all “uncertainty” this and “insufficiency” that — as though there’s some perfect, comprehenisve model of planet earth to compare them to. But no one criticizes NASA for building spacecrafts that aren’t the Starship Enterprise, because they know that the Starship Enterprise is fictional. The same is true for climate models — that perfect simulation doesn’t exist.

This video from Motherboard helps explain why that is (while also informing us that NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies happens to be right behind the Seinfeld diner — a great factoid to tuck away for later!).

Here’s the bottom line: Climate models translate the natural world into math. As anyone who’s ever taken a physics class can tell you, translating even the simplest things into math is hard. I mean, do you guys remember having to calculate how fast that bowling ball was going when it reached the bottom of that hill? Or how high that baseball went when Bob threw it up in the air? Or what happened when those two blocks crashed into each other?

Well, climate models have to do that kind of thing but for pretty much all water and air, everywhere around the globe, all at once. Not only is that hard, it’s literally impossible to do with perfect accuracy. Uncertainties are — and always will be — part of the deal.

We applaud NASA just for building spacecrafts in the first place, because holy shit, space flight is real! The same should be true for climate models. That perfect simulation is a fantasy, so let’s be realistic and appreciate what we have, because holy shit, we can simulate the world!

Oh, and for the record: Climate models are not responsible for forecasting local weather, so give it a rest, Glenn Beck:

Source:
The Most Important Models in the World

, Motherboard.

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Scientists will never build a perfect climate model, but that’s OK

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Religous Zealot Would Like to Talk to You For a Minute About the Drought

by TiaJobsonzedf Posted on May 10, 2015

Mother Jones

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As you may know, there is a drought in California. The water? It’s gone! The state? It’s dry! The consequences? Very bad, indeed.

Where did the water go? I have no idea. I’m not a private detective who specializes in missing water.

Why did the water leave? No clue. Maybe it’s climate change or almonds or squirrels or people or agricultural blah blah blah. Maybe the water saw Thelma & Louise and got inspired. Again: If you’re looking for answers, you’re reading the wrong writer. But you know who else has no idea why the drought happened? This idiot.

Conservative journalist Bill Koenig suggested that the drought in California is a result of the state’s support for same-sex marriage and abortion rights: “We’ve got a state that over and over again will go against the word of God, that will continually take positions on marriage and abortion and on a lot of things that are just completely opposed to the scriptures and unfortunately a lot of times when it starts in California it spreads to the rest of the country and even spreads to the rest of the world. So there very likely could be a drought component to this judgment.”

The end-times crowd always does this whenever there is a natural disaster or terror attack or anything. They always finger the same suspect. Gay people. 9/11? Gays. Katrina? Gays. Drought? Gays.

Social conservatives are the guy in the movie theater who keeps whispering to his friends, “I KNOW WHO DID IT.”

Pundit blames California’s catastrophic drought on the gays. http://t.co/Xt101dJfKz

— HuffPost Green (@HuffPostGreen)

The thing is, the lunatic premise that God is punishing California for being less inhospitable to gays than Bill Koenig would like wouldn’t even lead to the conclusion that the drought is the fault of gays and LGBT allies in California. The conclusion it would lead to is: it’s God’s fault.

If someone stole some fruit and the store manager caught them and punished them by murdering their entire family and everyone they’d ever met, the headline would not be, “Millions Dead, Fruit Thief Blamed,” it would be, “Maniac Murders Millions.” The fruit thief wouldn’t even be mentioned until the fifth paragraph.

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Religous Zealot Would Like to Talk to You For a Minute About the Drought

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