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We Haven’t Been This Close to the Apocalypse Since 1984

Mother Jones

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This story originally appeared in Slate and is republished here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

In 1947, the specter of nuclear holocaust prompted the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists to come up with a “Doomsday Clock.” The clock was meant to highlight just how close humans had come to wiping ourselves off the map. Midnight on the clock represented global catastrophe—the end of civilization as we know it.

Back then, the Bulletin set the clock to 11:53 p.m. The group has revisited the setting each year since, occasionally adjusting it forward or backward to reflect changes in world events.

On Thursday, it moved the clock forward two minutes, to 11:57 p.m.

That’s the closest it has been to midnight since 1984, at the Cold War’s peak. The only time humanity has been closer to self-destruction, according to the clock, was from 1953 to 1960, when it read 11:58 p.m. thanks to the nuclear brinksmanship between the United States and the Soviet Union. The Cold War’s end turned the clock all the way back to 11:43 p.m. in 1991. So how did we end up right back at 11:57 p.m., just 24 years later?

The answer is that nuclear war is no longer the only plausible, existential threat we face, according to the Bulletin‘s science and security board. The other: climate change. And, more specifically, the world’s lackluster response to climate change. As Lawrence Krauss explained in Slate two years ago, climate change was added to the clock-setting calculations in 2007, along with the dangers presented by biotechnology and bioterrorism. Despite ever-growing public awareness of the problem, global inaction on climate change has only darkened the picture since then. In a statement Thursday, the Bulletin warned:

Current efforts are entirely insufficient to prevent a catastrophic warming of Earth. Absent a dramatic course correction, the countries of the world will have emitted enough carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by the end of this century to profoundly transform Earth’s climate, harming millions upon millions of people and threatening many key ecological systems on which civilization relies.

This is not a new sentiment. Earlier this week, in his State of the Union Address, President Obama called climate change the world’s greatest threat to future generations. He wasn’t trying to be hyperbolic. And he might be right.

What’s interesting about the Doomsday Clock, though, is that it represents an attempt—albeit an inherently subjective one, by a group of scientists with their own interests and biases—to put the threat of climate change in context. How bad is it? Really, really bad. And yet, in the Bulletin‘s view, the threat of a warming planet is not quite as bad as the nuclear threat in 1953. Nor is it quite on par with the threat of nuclear war in 1984.

Remember, it isn’t only climate change that has us poised precipitously at 11:57 p.m. today. It’s the combination of climate change and some discouraging recent developments on the nuclear-proliferation front. At a press conference Thursday, Bulletin executive director Kennette Benedict emphasized both. About the nuclear threat, she said:

The arms-reduction process has ground to a halt, with the United States and Russia embarking on massive programs to modernize their nuclear forces—thereby undermining existing nuclear weapons treaties. At the same time, other nuclear-weapons states are joining this expensive and extremely dangerous modernization craze.

The two threats may seem unrelated, but it’s worthwhile to think about them in the same breath, because there are some interesting parallels between them. The greatest danger posed by nuclear bombs is not their explosive power. It’s the prospect of a nuclear winter—that is, a form of very sudden, human-caused, climate change.

The chart above shows the settings of the Doomsday Clock between 1947 and 2012. The lower the graph, the higher the probability of catastrophe. Wikimedia Commons

When we talk about the effects of anthropogenic global warming, we talk a lot about uncertainty. Actually though, the threats posed by climate change are not nearly as uncertain as those posed by nuclear proliferation. We may not know the precise effects of a warming planet, but we do know that it’s happening, and we have a pretty good idea of what will ensue if we don’t change course soon: crop failures, extinctions, famines, water shortages, regional conflicts, coastal floods, and more extreme weather events.

In contrast, we really have no idea what will happen if we fail to rein in the world’s nuclear arsenals. In the worst case, it could lead to all-out nuclear world war, which would change the climate far more rapidly than our current pace of greenhouse gas emissions. In the best case, countries will continue to maintain nuclear arsenals, but no one will ever use them again. And of course there are a lot of plausible scenarios in between.

We could spend years arguing about which is more dangerous, climate change or nuclear proliferation. But that would be like standing around in a burning building, arguing about whether it would be worse to die from smoke inhalation or get crushed by a falling beam.

Likewise, we could have a lively debate about whether the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is right that we’re slightly closer to the brink of disaster today than we were a few years ago, or in 1984, or in 1947. But the real point of the Doomsday Clock is to remind us that we have the power to wind it back. We just haven’t been doing much of that lately.

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We Haven’t Been This Close to the Apocalypse Since 1984

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How to Be Parisian Wherever You Are – Anne Berest, Audrey Diwan, Caroline De Maigret & Sophie Mas

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How to Be Parisian Wherever You Are

Love, Style, and Bad Habits

Anne Berest, Audrey Diwan, Caroline De Maigret & Sophie Mas

Genre: Self-Improvement

Price: $12.99

Publish Date: September 2, 2014

Publisher: Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group

Seller: Random House, LLC


From four stunning and accomplished French women — at last — a fresh and spirited take on what it really means to be a Parisienne: how they dress, entertain, have fun and attempt to behave themselves.   In short, frisky sections, these Parisian women give you their very original views on style, beauty, culture, attitude and men. The authors–Anne Berest, Audrey Diwan, Caroline de Maigret, and Sophie Mas — unmarried but attached, with children — have been friends for years. Talented bohemian iconoclasts with careers in the worlds of music, film, fashion and publishing, they are untypically frank and outspoken as they debunk the myths about what it means to be a French woman today. Letting you in on their secrets and flaws, they also make fun of their complicated, often contradictory feelings and behavior. They admit to being snobs, a bit self-centered, unpredictable but not unreliable. Bossy and opinionated, they are also tender and romantic.   You will be taken on a first date, to a party, to some favorite haunts in Paris, to the countryside, and to one of their dinners at home with recipes even you could do — but to be out with them is to be in for some mischief and surprises. They will tell you how to be mysterious and sensual, look natural, make your boyfriend jealous, and how they feel about children, weddings and going to the gym. And they will share their address book in Paris for where to go: At the End of the Night, for A Birthday, for a Smart Date, A Hangover, for Vintage Finds and much more.   How to Be Parisian Wherever You Are will make you laugh as you slip into their shoes to become bold and free and tap into your inner cool. From the Hardcover edition.

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How to Be Parisian Wherever You Are – Anne Berest, Audrey Diwan, Caroline De Maigret & Sophie Mas

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The Hot Zone – Richard Preston

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The Hot Zone
A Terrifying True Story
Richard Preston

Genre: Health & Fitness

Price: $4.99

Publish Date: September 20, 1994

Publisher: Knopf Doubleday Publishing Group

Seller: Random House, LLC


A highly infectious, deadly virus from the central African rain forest suddenly appears in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. There is no cure. In a few days 90 percent of its victims are dead. A secret military SWAT team of soldiers and scientists is mobilized to stop the outbreak of this exotic &quot;hot&quot; virus. The Hot Zone tells this dramatic story, giving a hair-raising account of the appearance of rare and lethal viruses and their &quot;crashes&quot; into the human race. Shocking, frightening, and impossible to ignore, The Hot Zone proves that truth really is scarier than fiction.

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The Hot Zone – Richard Preston

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In Memoriam: Jonathan Schell

Mother Jones

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This story first appeared on the TomDispatch website.

“Up to a few months ago, Ben Suc was a prosperous village of some thirty-five hundred people.” That is the initial line of The Village of Ben Suc, his first book, a copy of which I recently reread on a plane trip, knowing that he was soon to die. That book, that specific copy, had a history of its own. It was a Knopf first edition, published in 1967 in the midst of the Vietnam War, after the then-shocking text had appeared in the New Yorker magazine. An on-the-spot account of an American operation, the largest of the Vietnam War to that moment, it followed American troops as they helicoptered into a village controlled by the enemy about 30 miles from the capital, Saigon. All its inhabitants, other than those killed in the process, were removed from their homes and sent to a makeshift refugee camp elsewhere. The US military then set Ben Suc afire, brought in bulldozers to reduce it to rubble, and finally called in the US Air Force to bomb that rubble to smithereens—as though, as the final line of his book put it, “having once decided to destroy it, we were now bent on annihilating every possible indication that the village of Ben Suc had ever existed.”

I had read the piece in the New Yorker when that magazine devoted a single issue to it, something it had not done since it published John Hersey’s Hiroshima in a similar fashion in 1946. I never forgot it. I was then 23 years old and just launched on a life as an anti-Vietnam War activist. I would not meet the author, 24-year-old neophyte reporter Jonathan Schell, for years.

To look at that first edition some 47 years later is to be reminded of just how young he was then, so young that Knopf thought it appropriate in his nearly nonexistent bio to mention where he went to high school (“the Putney School in Vermont”). The book was tiny. Only 132 pages with an all-print orange cover that, in addition to the author and title, said: “The story of the American destruction of a Vietnamese village—this is the complete text of the brilliant report to which the New Yorker devoted almost an entire issue.” That was bold advertising in those publishing days. I know. As an editor at a publishing house as the 1980s began, I can still remember having a fierce argument about whether or not it was “tasteless” to put a blurb from a prominent person on a book’s cover.

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In Memoriam: Jonathan Schell

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Why Most of What You’ve Heard About Cancer is Wrong

Science author George Johnson says we need to rethink our understanding of this most devastating of diseases—and when you read some of the surprising cancer facts in his latest book, you’ll see why. A skin cancer cell (squamous cell carcinoma). Yale Rosen/Flickr Cancer. In medicine, there’s no word more dreaded, more terrifying. Sure, we try to put a hopeful spin on it, celebrating cancer survivors for their bravery and their determination in fighting back. But for most of us cancer remains synonymous with death, pain, and suffering. At least, we hope, until somebody finds a “cure.” But modern science suggests we’ve been thinking about this dreaded disease all wrong. Yes, cancer is terrible, but paradoxically, the mechanisms behind it are at the heart of what it means to be alive in the first place. Cancer isn’t a bug, unfortunately; it’s looking more and more like a feature. If we haven’t beaten it yet, that may be why. This week on the Inquiring Minds podcast, we speak with veteran science journalist George Johnson, whose new book, The Cancer Chronicles: Unlocking Medicine’s Deepest Mystery, helps turn much traditional thinking about cancer on its head. It’s a provocative and also a personal exploration of the myths and misunderstandings that surround this most formidable enemy to our health and well being: Science writer George Johnson. Kerry Sherck In the book, Johnson cites a stunning estimate by MIT cancer researcher Robert Weinberg: About 4 million of our body’s cells are dividing and copying their DNA every second of every day. With every replication, there is a potential for mistakes, and a risk of developing cancer. Thankfully, we’ve evolved solutions to rogue errors, and our bodies can repair or destroy precancerous cells the vast majority of the time. Yet the risk can never be zero, because without this process of cell division and regeneration, we would quickly cease to live. In fact, without the capacity for cellular mutation and the ability to pass on reformatted DNA to our offspring, our species would not have been capable of evolving. We wouldn’t be who we are today. “There’s something unfortunately natural about cancer,” explains Johnson. “It’s a natural tradeoff of evolution.” Another scientist cited by Johnson, Princeton’s Robert Austin, has even suggested that cancer is a natural by-product of the body’s response to stress. When faced with a scarcity of resources, bacteria respond by creating offspring and encouraging mutations, one of which just might lead to a better chance of survival. Descendants of bacteria, the cells in our own bodies have maintained this survival instinct, and also have the propensity to wiggle out of sticky situations by mutating, even if it poses a deadly risk to the larger organism of which they’re part. Cancer, in other words, isn’t about destroying; it’s about surviving. Here are nine insights from Johnson’s book and his Inquiring Minds interview that may dramatically change your views about cancer: Knopf. 1. Lots of other animals get cancer, though not as often as us. According to Johnson, “mammals appear to get more cancer than reptiles or fish, which in turn get more cancer than amphibians. Domesticated animals seem to get more cancer than their cousins in the wild. And people get the most cancer of all.” Why? It’s likely a function of age. Cancer seems to come in two types: childhood cancers, which are comparatively rare, and—much more commonly—cancer that results from the gradual accumulation of mutations over the years. “There’s more cancer today because there are more people today, and 75 percent of cancer is diagnosed in people 55 years or older,” says Johnson. Since cancer results largely from cell replication errors, the older you are, the more often your cells have divided and thus the greater your risk of developing cancer. The same is true for other species, which is why domesticated animals seem to get more cancer than their short-lived peers in the wild. Fish, reptiles, and amphibians also tend to have shorter lifespans than mammals, and as our ability to fight off infectious diseases and other early killers has extended our own lifespans, we’re now living long enough to die from cancer instead. Dinosaurs like this triceratops, whose skeleton resides at the American Museum of Natural History, also sometimes got cancer. Michael Gray/Wikimedia Commons 2. When we say “other animals,” that includes dinosaurs. Fascinatingly, Johnson starts out his book with, of all things, a case of dinosaur cancer. Or at least, a tumor found in the fossilized bone of a dinosaur. Johnson relates the story at more length here, but here are the basics: After an intriguing dinosaur fossil was found in a rock shop in Colorado, it was analyzed and a scientific paper was published in the journal The Lancet suggesting that the dinosaur had suffered from metastatic bone cancer. From Johnson’s perspective on cancer, this makes total sense: Dinosaurs were very large animals that had lots and lots of dividing cells. So we’d expect that at least some of them would have developed cancer. 3. Eating fruits and vegetables is *not* proven to reduce your cancer risk. Despite the myriad health benefits of eating well, Johnson explains that large-scale studies have failed to show a strong relationship between consuming more fruits and vegetables and a lower incidence of cancer. “That was a huge surprise,” says Johnson. But as he explains, while older studies had suggested benefits from this diet, more recent epidemiological studies have cast doubt on this relationship. Some examles of anti-oxidant rich foods. Scott Bauer, USDA ARS/Wikimedia Commons Often, we’re told that nutrients in superfoods like spinach, carrots, and mangoes can help our bodies fight cancer. The idea is that anti-oxidants in such foods fight free radicals, atoms or groups of atoms with an odd number of electrons in their outer shells that can cause damage when they interact with a cell’s DNA or its outer wall. Antioxidants like vitamins E and C and beta-carotene counteract and neutralize free radicals, and so the theory is that we can prevent damage to our DNA by consuming larger quantities of them. But clinical trials using vitamin supplements have actually shown increased risk of cancer in certain populations, and have cast doubt on the significance of micronutrients in reducing your overall mortality. But when it comes to diet, consuming too many calories and becoming obese does increase your cancer risk. Whether sugar itself fuels cancer activity more than it does activity in other cells remains up for debate. There is a solid link, however, between cancer and chronic inflammation, the body’s natural defense against all manner of cellular injuries. And excess consumption of sugar, in addition to eating trans fats and refined carbs, can cause chronic inflammation. USC biomedical researcher Valter Longo with two participants in a Laron syndrome study Valter Longo 4. Taller people have a bigger cancer risk. Surprisingly, one major cancer risk is your height. In fact, Johnson notes, one large study found that “every four inches over 5 feet increased cancer risk by 16 percent.” The likely reason: If you’re tall, you have more cells in your body, and thus more opportunities to get cancer when cell division goes awry. “People who are taller had more cellular divisions to produce the taller body and therefore more chance to accumulate these mutations along the way,” says Johnson. “This is not something you can do anything about.” Additional intriguing evidence of the height-cancer relationship comes from a group of Ecuadoran villagers who suffer from Laron syndrome, a type of dwarfism. Johnson reports that “because of a mutation involving their growth hormone receptors, the tallest men are four and a half feet and the women are six inches shorter…They hardly ever get cancer or diabetes, even though they are often obese.” 5. With each menstrual period, a woman increases her breast cancer risk. Another surprising finding is that delaying childbearing and having fewer children might be leading to more cancers in women. “With each period a jolt of estrogen causes cells in the uterus and mammary glands to begin multiplying, duplicating their DNA—preparing for the bearing and the nursing of a child that may not come,” Johnson writes. “Each menstrual cycle is a roll of the dice, an opportunity for copying errors that might result in a neoplasm. Estrogen (along with asbestos, benzene, gamma rays, and mustard gas) is on the list of known human carcinogens published by the federal government’s National Toxicology Program.” Today, women are getting their periods earlier, having fewer children, and having them later, increasing the total number of estrogen surges that they experience over their childbearing years. Breast-feeding reduces estrogen, so even lactation has a somewhat protective effect. We can’t yet quantify the risk, but “delayed childbearing has been linked to an increased number of breast cancers, and it’s believed to be one of the reasons why there is more breast cancer in the developed world than in developing countries where women don’t have that choice and must be pregnant all the time,” says Johnson. When it comes to cancer, this is probably not where your worries ought to be. eranicle/Shutterstock 6. Radiation in specific frequencies (UV, gamma, X-rays) can cause cancer, but not all radiation is created equal. Radiation from microwaves, cellphones, and radios is low frequency, and does not have enough energy to mutate DNA and cause cancer, according to the America Cancer Society. Most of the radiation that is cancer-causing on Earth comes from cosmic background radiation and radioactive elements found naturally in the soil. It’s not man-made. 7. If you get cancer, your job may not ultimately be protected. Johnson’s book ends with a story of his brother Joe, who, having exhausted his sick leave during his cancer treatment, was let go from his job. With apologies, of course. Can your employer actually do that? Turns out it’s very complicated. Stories of firings over cancer are rampant on the internet, and it’s pretty clear that some cases are indeed discriminatory. Under the Americans With Disabilities Act, employers are required to make “reasonable accommodations” for those who are disabled, which can include cancer victims. That means that if you have cancer, your employer may need to take a variety of steps to allow you to continue to do your job—but the accommodations are not absolutely unlimited. The line is drawn where such accommodations become an “undue hardship (i.e., a significant difficulty or expense)” to employers, and if you can no longer perform your job’s “essential functions.” Which is not to say it’s fair. For many cancer patients, returning to work is a significant part of rebuilding a life after cancer, and losing a job can be a major psychological setback. Arguably, the resulting depression can sap physical resources and immunity, eventually making the recurrence of cancer more likely. Magnified image of stomach cancer cells Kwz/Wikimedia Commons 8. Cancer learns. When cancer metastasizes in your body, it’s not just that a tumor gets bigger or spreads around. It mutates and evolves, learning to tap into your circulatory or other systems and to use your body for its own purposes. “More and more, [cancer cells] are thought of as quasi-creatures that are trying to evolve in your body,” says Johnson. “Because really what a cancer cell is doing in your body is…what a creature in an ecosystem is doing. It’s giving birth to offspring, its cells are dividing and making daughter cells, and along the way, there are mutations—some of these mutations are beneficial to the cancer cell…They become fitter and fitter in the ecosystem of your body, but ultimately they kill the host.” 9. The idea of a “cure” for cancer may be a misnomer. After decades of research, scientists are faced with the fact that most cancers result from the very cellular activities that support life, not exclusively from destructive environmental factors like cigarette smoke and UV rays. And if that’s the case, then fixing the mechanisms that make cancer possible would also disrupt cellular functions that keep us alive and evolving. So what does that say about “curing” cancer? Cancers in children tend to include fewer mutations, making them more curable, but in older patients, whose cancers result from the accumulation of many mutations over time, it’s a different story. “The best response might not be to fight back with chemotherapy and radiation, increasing the stress,” writes Johnson, “but to somehow maintain the exuberant cells—the tumor—in a quiescent state, something that can be lived with.” For the full interview with George Johnson, listen here: This episode of Inquiring Minds, a podcast hosted by best-selling author Chris Mooney and neuroscientist and musician Indre Viskontas, also features a discussion of the science of hangovers (timed just for Halloween weekend, we know) and new findings about the origins of the SARS virus. To catch future shows right when they release, subscribe to Inquiring Minds via iTunes. You can also follow the show on Twitter at @inquiringshow and like us on Facebook. Source article:  Why Most of What You’ve Heard About Cancer is Wrong ; ;Related ArticlesCarbon Emissions Must be Cut ‘Significantly’ by 2020, Says UN ReportThe Key to Cheap Renewable Energy? RobotsPolar Bear Attacks: Scientists Warn of Fresh Dangers in Warming Arctic ;

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Why Most of What You’ve Heard About Cancer is Wrong

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The Sibley Guide to Trees

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