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San Francisco Bay could become chemical soup without new regulations

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San Francisco Bay could become chemical soup without new regulations

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Beaches belong to the public. They are not for sale.

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Beaches belong to the public. They are not for sale.

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Obama signs on to three international climate pacts in three days

Obama signs on to three international climate pacts in three days

Barack Obama is walking the climate-change talk — all around the world. Or at least endorsing climate-change pacts.

Lawrence Jackson,

whitehouse.gov

Obama in St. Petersburg last week.

In June, the president unveiled a climate action plan that called, among other things, for the U.S. to establish itself as a global leader on climate issues. And over the past few days, he’s shown that it wasn’t just rhetoric. Though the U.N. treaty process is going nowhere fast, the Obama administration is moving forward with smaller international climate agreements.

commitment that Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping made during private meetings in June to reduce climate-changing emissions of hydrofluorocarbons, or HFCs, evolved on Friday into a formal agreement between the two nations. From The Washington Post:

The United States and China announced Friday they would seek to eliminate some of the world’s most potent greenhouse gases through the 1987 Montreal Protocol, the landmark treaty that successfully phased out ozone-depleting substances decades ago.

The move, announced at the Group of 20 summit in St. Petersburg, is significant because it provides a clear path for curbing a major contributor to global warming in the near term as world leaders grapple with the more challenging task of cutting carbon dioxide in the coming decades.

And in news that’s so closely related you could be forgiven for thinking it’s exactly the same story, all of the countries at the G20 summit, including the U.S., reached a broader agreement to curb emissions of HFCs. From Reuters:

The White House cited the agreement to cooperate on phasing down the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), gases used in refrigerators, air conditioners and some industrial equipment, as one of the “most significant agreements” of the summit.

“This commitment marks an important step forward toward addressing HFCs — highly potent greenhouse gases that are rapidly increasing in use — through the proven mechanism of the Montreal Protocol,” the White House said in a fact sheet.

Meanwhile, half a world away from the G20 meeting in Russia, some encouraging news emerged from a summit of Pacific Ocean island states — some of which are at risk of sinking beneath rising seas. From Agence France-Presse:

A new Pacific regional pact calling for aggressive action to combat climate change has achieved a “major accomplishment” by gaining US support, officials said Sunday.

The Majuro Declaration, endorsed by the 15-nation Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) at their summit last week, contains specific pledges on cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

US Interior Secretary Sally Jewell announced during the session a new climate change fund for Pacific islands vulnerable to rising sea levels. …

Separately, the US was offering $24 million over five years for projects in “vulnerable coastal communities” in the Pacific, she said. …

Marshall Islands minister Tony de Brum said the US support was a “major accomplishment”.

It might be time to send the president down under to try to talk some sense into Australia’s new government.

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.Find this article interesting? Donate now to support our work.Read more: Climate & Energy

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Obama signs on to three international climate pacts in three days

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Australians elect climate denier who pledges to dump carbon tax

Australians elect climate denier who pledges to dump carbon tax

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Phillip Minnis

Meet Australia’s incoming prime minister, Tony Abbott, who once called climate science “absolute crap.”

In the national election held on Saturday, Australian voters faced a big choice on climate policy — a choice between fairly good and downright evil, as we explained earlier this summer.

The Aussies opted for evil.

Tony Abbott, the climate-denying politician who had pledged to kill a carbon tax and other climate initiatives introduced by the Labor Party government, will soon be the country’s prime minister. The Abbott-led conservative coalition of the Liberal and National parties (note the capital “L” in “Liberal” — that’s because it’s the name of a party, not a description of its platform) easily won an election that had been dominated by debate over climate policies.

The carbon tax has been credited with contributing to a recent drop in carbon dioxide emissions in Australia, which is one of the world’s worst per-capita CO2 polluters. But the tax is fiercely resented by the country’s powerful resources-based corporations.

Abbott’s first order of business? Repaying the mining and fossil-fuel industries that helped elect him by immediately moving to scrap that tax — just like he promised.

From the Australian Broadcasting Corporation:

Prime Minister-elect Tony Abbott yesterday instructed his department to begin drawing up the legislation to dump the carbon pricing scheme, and says Federal Parliament will resume in late October or early November to deal with it. …

Mr Abbott’s spokesman — and likely minister — for the environment, Greg Hunt, says scrapping the carbon tax will be new government’s “first order of business”.

“We want to set out now to do what we said we would do, and the only people who stand between Australia and lower electricity prices are the Labor Party,” Mr Hunt said.

This won’t be as simple as Abbott would like. Although he will soon control the the House of Representatives, which is Parliament’s primary law-writing body, a newly elected gang of senators won’t take their seats for another year. The existing Senate is controlled by the Labor Party and the Green Party, which have vowed to block legislation to repeal the carbon tax.

Even when the new Senate is sworn in, Abbott will face challenges. Current projections show that his coalition will have fewer than half of the Senate seats, with the balance of power likely to be held by what The Age newspaper described as a “barnyard of minor parties, … some of them virtually unknown entities with no track record and no known policies.”

That means Abbott would need to negotiate with senators from such weird-arse parties as the Sports Party and The Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party in attempting to pass new climate legislation. Again from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation:

Greens leader Christine Milne, whose party will hold the balance of power for the next 12 months, says the incoming minor party senators may still prove to be a challenge to work with.

“When the new Senate takes place, he will have to get six out of eight — if the current numbers are the ones that are returned — six out of eight of those people to vote with him at any one time and who knows where they stand on anything,” she said.

“For most of them, there is no policy platform, there is no philosophical view.”

And then there are the financial challenges. Abbott’s advisers estimate that dumping the carbon tax will leave a $AUD6 billion ($5.5 billion) hole in the federal budget during the next three to four years. The tax was not only used to pay for climate initiatives; it was part of Labor’s sweeping reform of the country’s tax system designed to reduce personal income taxes [PDF], especially for low-income earners.

The election result is a tad baffling given that Labor oversaw six straight years of rising economic prosperity amid global financial doom and gloom. So who can we blame, then, for the depressing collapse of Australian’s burgeoning climate leadership in the Asia-Pacific region?

Some pundits blame outgoing Prime Minister Kevin Rudd for losing the election — he destabilized the Labor Party by hounding former Prime Minister Julia Gillard out of the top job in the year leading up to the election, and then pushed the party further to the right. Others blame widespread resentment of Labor’s climate policies (the Associated Press described the carbon tax as “hated” in its election coverage), which is strange given that Australians voted the party in six years ago, and reelected it three years ago, on the basis of those very policies. Others blame News Limited founder Rupert Murdoch, whose Australian stable of newspapers whipped up an anti-Labor furor with biased reporting in the lead-up to the election. Murdoch, for what it’s worth, took to Twitter in a triumphant tirade to espouse his own angry theories:

Then again, we could probably just blame the Australian voters.

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.Find this article interesting? Donate now to support our work.Read more: Climate & Energy

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Australians elect climate denier who pledges to dump carbon tax

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Will the U.S. and New Zealand cave on plans for the world’s biggest marine reserve?

Will the U.S. and New Zealand cave on plans for the world’s biggest marine reserve?

Russia is almost as far away from the Antarctic as you can get without climbing aboard a spaceship, but it still wants to make sure it can fish the living hell out of Antarctic waters.

cortto

The Ross Sea in the Antarctic.

The U.S. and New Zealand have been pushing plans to create the world’s largest marine reserve, 890,000 square miles in the Ross Sea, an Antarctic bay in the Southern Ocean teeming with spawning fish, whales, seals, penguins, and other wildlife.

But that proposal was thwarted by Russia during the last two meetings of the multi-nation Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources. (Russia also blocked a separate bid by Australia and Europe to establish a similar but slightly smaller chain of reserves nearby in East Antarctica.) Chile, China, Japan, Korea, and Norway, also members of the commission, share some of Russia’s concerns about the economic impacts of fishing restrictions in the Antarctic.

Now comes word that New Zealand will likely propose a smaller reserve to accommodate the Russians. From Fairfax NZ, which operates newspapers in New Zealand:

[New Zealand Prime Minister John] Key said today officials are working on a new plan, ahead of talks in Tasmania next month. …

“This is the second attempt to get change, and if we are going to get change we are probably going to make some alterations,” he said today. …

[I]nsiders are speculating that as much as 40 per cent of the sanctuary, including important spawning grounds in the north, will be cut.

Environmentalists are calling for New Zealand and the U.S. to stand strong.

“It would be a missed opportunity to retreat from US Secretary of State John Kerry’s commitment earlier this year to the Ross Sea,” Andrea Kavanagh, director of The Pew Charitable Trusts’ Southern Ocean sanctuaries project, said in a statement. “We ask that US and New Zealand officials hold the line. The Ross Sea is one of the most beautiful and pristine areas left on Earth and we are urging governments to protect it.”

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.Find this article interesting? Donate now to support our work.Read more: Politics

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Will the U.S. and New Zealand cave on plans for the world’s biggest marine reserve?

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A modern shoe made from ocean plastic

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Australian floods lowered worldwide sea levels

Australian floods lowered worldwide sea levels

Flood-inducing rainfall in Australia in 2010 was so severe that it lowered worldwide sea levels.

Scientists have been puzzled by satellite data that shows sea levels fell in 2011. A paper published this month in the journal Geophysical Research Letters attributes a lot of the surprising sea-level decline to antipodean deluges — record-breaking rainfall that was linked to climate change.

Seas have been rising by about 3 millimeters a year in recent decades. But from mid-2010 until 2011 sea levels dropped by 7 millimeters, as shown in this graph:

CU Sea Level Research Group

Australia is home to geological formations similar to lakes — scientists call them arheic and endorheic basins — that do not flow to the ocean. Instead they empty by gradually evaporating. About 40 percent of precipitation in most continents flows into the ocean, but in dish-shaped Australia, that figure is just 6 percent.

Research led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research using NASA satellite data found that when these Australian basins brimmed with heavy 2010 rains, they held so much water that they contributed to about half of the fall in global sea levels. The basins held the water well into 2012, some of it as surface water and some as groundwater and soil moisture. (A strong La Niña and heavy precipitation over South America and North America also appear to have contributed to the surprise sudden drop in sea levels.)

Seas have recently been rising more rapidly than the 3-millimeter-per-year average — and scientists say that, in turn, could be linked to recent heat waves and droughts in Australia.

“The recent heatwave and accompanying drought very likely depleted soil moisture and perhaps groundwater, so, yes, there is likely a component that is contributing to the current major positive anomaly in global sea level,” said lead researcher John Fasullo. “This is unlikely to be a major contributor to the long term trend, however, as Australia can only dry out so much.”

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Australian floods lowered worldwide sea levels

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When wonkspeak goes mainstream

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When wonkspeak goes mainstream

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Antarctic marine reserve plans scuppered by Russia

Antarctic marine reserve plans scuppered by Russia

Shutterstock

Still open for fishing.

You can’t get much farther from Antarctica than Russia. Yet it was Russia that this week sunk American- and New Zealand-led efforts to create sprawling marine reserves around the South Pole.

The multi-nation Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources met in Germany this week to discuss proposals to protect more than 1.5 million square miles from the growing threat of fishing. The meeting was called after the countries that make up the committee failed to reach agreement on the proposals last year. From Nature:

There was widespread hope that new reserves in the Ross Sea and in East Antarctica would be approved this week …

But [Tuesday] at the meeting the Russian delegation questioned the very authority of the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), which regulates fishing in Antarctica, to create reserves, several participants said. To establish any reserve requires the agreement of all 25 members.

This has enraged NGOs, who pointed out that CCAMLR has already created one such ‘marine protected area’ and that all of the commission’s members had previously agreed in principle that it should create such zones. NGO representatives accused Russia of coming in bad faith to the meeting, which was convened specifically to discuss the marine reserves after they were not agreed to at another meeting last year.

“Everyone here is very disappointed,” says Steve Campbell, campaign director at the Antarctic Ocean Alliance, a coalition of groups pushing for more marine protection in the region. “There is no doubt CCAMLR has authority to establish these areas.”

Reserve supporters aren’t giving up hope, though. The proposals will be considered again in October when the committee gathers in Australia for its next regular meeting.

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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97 out of 100 climate scientists agree: Humans are responsible for warming

97 out of 100 climate scientists agree: Humans are responsible for warming

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The Earth revolves around the sun. Also, it’s overheating because we’re burning fossil fuels.

Can you guess which of those two long-established facts just received an additional jolt of publicized near unanimity among scientists?

It was, of course, the latter. (The oil industry has no economic interest in attempting to debunk the former, and you can no longer be persecuted for claiming it.)

An international team of scientists analyzed the abstracts of 11,944 peer-reviewed papers published between 1991 and 2011 dealing with climate change and global warming. That’s right — we’re talking about 20 years of papers, many published long before Superstorm Sandy, last year’s epic Greenland melt, or Australia’s “angry summer.”

About two-thirds of the authors of those studies refrained from stating in their abstracts whether human activity was responsible for climate change. But in those papers where a position on the claim was staked out, 97.1 percent endorsed the consensus position that humans are, indeed, cooking the planet.

The scientists involved with the new study also asked the authors of the peer-reviewed papers for their personal reflections on the causes of global warming. A little more than one-third expressed no opinion. Of those who did share a view, 97.2 percent endorsed the consensus that humans are to blame. Out of the 1,189 authors who responded to the survey, just 39 rejected the idea that humans are causing global warming.

Those 39 scientists might be outliers, but, hey, at least they’re the ones who are going to get the phone calls for interviews on Fox News and with the Wall Street Journal. For “balance,” of course.

The results of the study were published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

The authors of the study noted that consensus among scientists regarding humanity’s role in global warming is higher than is the case for the rest of the population. The study authors dubbed this a “consensus gap.” Many Americans continue to express doubts about whether we are responsible for a warming trend, although those confused ranks have been declining during the past couple years faster than the soil moisture content on a Texas farm.

From the study:

Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on [anthropogenic global warming] is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research. …

Contributing to this ‘consensus gap’ are campaigns designed to confuse the public about the level of agreement among climate scientists. … A key strategy involved constructing the impression of active scientific debate using dissenting scientists as spokesmen.

So next time some loud relative tells you we don’t know for sure that humans are causing the weather to change, you can tell them that 97 percent of climate scientists beg to differ. Of course, that still might not get you anywhere.

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who

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