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The Fed Cares About Inflation 10 Times More Than It Cares About Unemployment

by 4ko9dra Posted on February 25, 2014

Mother Jones

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Ryan Avent, having exhausted his conventional analysis of the Fed’s 2008 transcripts, turns today to a more analytical approach: counting words. I think others have already made this point without numbers, but Avent’s most powerful finding is that the Fed cares way more about inflation than it does about unemployment:

There is only one winner in the dual mandate. The word “inflation” (or variants thereof, such as “inflationary”) was mentioned a cool 2,664 times in 2008; “unemployment” pops up just 275 times.

I’m assuming he played fair and also looked for variants of “unemployment,” like “employment” or “jobs.” In any case, I don’t think this comes as much of a surprise to anyone, since it’s been obvious for decades that the Fed not only doesn’t care about unemployment, but gets positively worried when too many people have jobs. That would mean the labor market is tight and workers might get paid more, you see, and that could be inflationary. Still, it’s nice to see this verified quantitatively.

Avent also found that there were fewer mentions of “recession” as the year went on, which seems odd but might not be. Early on, when it was still unclear if the economy was in recession, I suppose they argued about this a lot. By June, when there was no longer any question about it, they all took it for granted and no longer even needed to mention it.

As for the finding that laughter increased later in the year, I guess I can’t blame them. There’s only so much globe-destroying financial panic you can take without cracking a few jokes.

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The Fed Cares About Inflation 10 Times More Than It Cares About Unemployment

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President Obama Is Fighting Cuts to the Military, Not Demanding Them

by CharissaGerald Posted on February 25, 2014

Mother Jones

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From Dick Cheney, commenting on President Obama’s proposed military budget, presented yesterday by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel:

I think the whole thing is not driven by any change in world circumstances, it is driven by budget considerations. He would much rather spend the money on food stamps than he would on a strong military or support for our troops.

This is, as Andrew Sullivan points out, loathsome:

He could have made an argument why he thinks we should maintain the stratospheric levels of defense spending that have been in place since 9/11; he could have argued that the US needs to maintain the ability to fight two major land wars simultaneously in perpetuity. He could have said a lot of things. But he decided to accuse the commander-in-chief of not supporting the troops and actually wanting to keep people in poverty. There is this belief out there that Republican extremism comes from the base and not the elites. But Cheney proves otherwise.

There’s more to this. You might disagree with Obama’s priorities, but Cheney’s claim is based entirely on the notion that Hagel and Obama are proposing military cuts. But they aren’t. Hagel proposed a change in force structure that would lead to a smaller Army, but his overall budget proposal is $115 billion more than the current sequester levels demanded by Republicans. Hagel is going to have plenty of fights on his hands, but mainly because he wants more money, not less. James Joyner explains:

Hagel, in a Pentagon speech on Monday, insisted that sequestration levels amounted to “irresponsible cuts” that would “compromise our national security for both the short- and long-term.” While acknowledging that they remain “the law of the land,” the secretary insisted that the only way to implement them “is to sharply reduce spending on readiness and modernization, which would almost certainly result in a hollow force—one that isn’t ready or capable of fulfilling assigned positions.” Hagel terms the administration proposal as “more reasonable and far more responsible” than the current approach.

….Further, the $115 billion figure actually understates the amount by which the proposal exceeds sequestration limits….another Base Realignment and Closure, or BRAC, round in 2017….proposed cut of 20,000 personnel from the Army National Guard by 2019….cancel the Army’s Ground Combat Vehicle program, end future upgrades to F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter and EA-18 Growler electronic warfare aircraft, and halt the buy of the Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship….mothball its entire fleet of A-10 close air support planes….capping pay raises for troops at 1 percent (while freezing pay for general officers).

….At the same time, slashing the Army to its smallest size since before World War II, which essentially guarantees that the United States could not take on two simultaneous major conflicts, is likely to be accomplished without much resistance.

In other words, Hagel is going to run into a buzzsaw because (a) he wants a bigger budget and (b) he wants to cut a bunch of wasteful spending that’s near and dear to every congressman whose district might be affected. Cutting the size of the Army is just one small part of the whole package.

Naturally this is the part that Fox News focuses on and that Dick Cheney demagogues. But keep one thing firmly in mind: Even though it’s declined from its Iraq/Afghanistan peak, our military budget is still far larger than it was in 2000. Congress has made it clear that it wants further cuts, and in this case at least, Obama and Hagel are the ones fighting against the cuts. In his current proposal, Obama is asking for more money than current sequestration levels. He’s not cutting the military. Compared to what Congress asked for, he’s expanding it.

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President Obama Is Fighting Cuts to the Military, Not Demanding Them

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John Kerry says climate change is a weapon of mass destruction

by EzraQgnjoy Posted on February 17, 2014

John Kerry says climate change is a weapon of mass destruction

By

State Department

During his time as president, George W. Bush’s foreign policy was driven largely by fear of terrorists and WMDs. Obama’s State Department seems at least equally worried about climate change.

Secretary of State John Kerry gave a speech in climate-vulnerable Indonesia on Sunday during which he mocked climate deniers and compared the threat of global warming to terrorism and poverty. The speech came a day after Kerry visited China, where he worked out details of a U.S.-China climate agreement struck last year.

Here are some highlights from his speech in Jakarta:

Think about this: terrorism, epidemics, poverty, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction — all challenges that know no borders. The reality is that climate change ranks right up there with every single one of them. …

The science of climate change is leaping out at us like a scene from a 3D movie. It’s warning us; it’s compelling us to act. And let there be no doubt in anybody’s mind that the science is absolutely certain. It’s something that we understand with absolute assurance of the veracity of that science. …

This is not really a complicated equation. I know sometimes I can remember from when I was in high school and college, some aspects of science or physics can be tough — chemistry. But this is not tough. This is simple. Kids at the earliest age can understand this. …

If we truly want to prevent the worst consequences of climate change from happening, we do not have time to have a debate about whose responsibility this is. The answer is pretty simple: It’s everyone’s responsibility. Now certainly some countries — and I will say this very clearly, some countries, including the United States, contribute more to the problem and therefore we have an obligation to contribute more to the solution. …

Think about the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. It doesn’t keep us safe if the United States secures its nuclear arsenal, while other countries fail to prevent theirs from falling into the hands of terrorists. …

The bottom line is this: it is the same thing with climate change. And in a sense, climate change can now be considered another weapon of mass destruction, perhaps the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction.

Kerry is clearly pushing the administration’s argument that rich and poor countries alike should be required to cut emissions under a new climate treaty to be hammered out next year.

Perhaps the U.S. could set a good example by ending its coal giveaways and exports, its oil-drilling binge, and its embrace of climate-toasting natural gas. 

Because, how does that saying go? Something like: Either you are with us, or you are with the climate terrorists.


Source
Remarks on Climate Change, State Department
U.S.-China Joint Statement on Climate Change, State Department

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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We export carbon emissions to China, get smog back in return

by KeiraFoulds Posted on January 21, 2014

We export carbon emissions to China, get smog back in return

By

Shutterstock

Barack Obama recently warned supporters at a fundraiser that the U.S. will be “four feet under water” if China and India start consuming energy the way Americans do, The New Yorker reports.

The comment reflects growing international angst over the swelling carbon footprints of the two developing countries — each of which is home to more than a billion people, many of them understandably eager to emulate Western lifestyles.

But in a draft report, the U.N. is reminding Western countries that the carbon footprints of developing countries are oversized in part because they are manufacturing so much of our junk for us. From The Guardian:

The world’s richest countries are increasingly outsourcing their carbon pollution to China and other rising economies, according to a draft [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report.

Outsourcing of emissions comes in the form of electronic devices such as smartphones, cheap clothes and other goods manufactured in China and other rising economies but consumed in the US and Europe. …

Much of that rise was due to the burning of coal, the report says. And much of that coal was used to power factories in China and other rising economies that produce goods for US and European consumers, the draft adds.

The heavy reliance on coal by China, India, and the like, combined with the transportation of raw materials and finished goods, actually makes the problem of global warming worse than if we had manufactured our own consumer goods.

And factories in Asia aren’t just pumping out CO2 that’s warming the whole planet. They’re also pumping out air pollutants that cause smog and make people sick, and those pollutants are coming to U.S. shores, according to new research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Here’s The New York Times on the study’s findings:

Filthy emissions from China’s export industries are carried across the Pacific Ocean and contribute to air pollution in the Western United States, according to a paper published Monday by a prominent American science journal. …

The movement of air pollutants associated with the production of goods in China for the American market has resulted in a decline in air quality in the Western United States, the scientists wrote, though less manufacturing in the United States does mean cleaner air in the American East.

Here’s more on the study from U.C. Irvine, where one of its authors is based:

Los Angeles experiences at least one extra day a year of smog that exceeds federal ozone limits because of nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide emitted by Chinese factories making goods for export, the analysis found. On other days, as much as a quarter of the sulfate pollution on the U.S. West Coast is tied to Chinese exports. All the contaminants tracked in the study are key ingredients in unhealthy smog and soot.

China is not responsible for the lion’s share of pollution in the U.S. Cars, trucks and refineries pump out far more. But powerful global winds known as “westerlies” can push airborne chemicals across the ocean in days, particularly during the spring, causing dangerous spikes in contaminants. Dust, ozone and carbon can accumulate in valleys and basins in California and other Western states.

Black carbon is a particular problem: Rain doesn’t easily wash it out of the atmosphere, so it persists across long distances. Like other air pollutants, it’s been linked to a litany of health problems, from increased asthma to cancer, emphysema, and heart and lung disease.

Karma’s a bitch.


Source
Going the distance: On and off the road with Barack Obama, The New Yorker
CO2 emissions are being ‘outsourced’ by rich countries to rising economies, The Guardian
China Exports Pollution to U.S., Study Finds, The New York Times
Made in China for us: Air pollution as well as exports, U.C. Irvine

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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We export carbon emissions to China, get smog back in return

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China Follows U.S., Crushing Tons of Confiscated Ivory

by Myrna Posted on January 6, 2014

China uses a loud, much-publicized ivory-crushing event to send a signal to consumers and criminals. Credit:   China Follows U.S., Crushing Tons of Confiscated Ivory ; ;Related ArticlesFood, Genes and the Feeling of RiskDot Earth Blog: Crushing Tons of Ivory, Wildlife Service Sends Signal to SmugglersCrushing Tons of Ivory, Wildlife Service Sends Signal to Smugglers ;

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China Follows U.S., Crushing Tons of Confiscated Ivory

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Every “serious environmentalist” must support fracking? Seriously?

by Benny Roye Posted on December 15, 2013

Every “serious environmentalist” must support fracking? Seriously?

By

Stop-CSG-Illawarra

If you oppose fracking, then you are not a “serious environmentalist.”

So say U.C. Berkeley physics professor Richard Muller and his daughter Elizabeth Muller in a new opinion paper with a none-too-subtle title: “Why Every Serious Environmentalist Should Favor Fracking.”

Until recently, Muller wasn’t much of an environmentalist himself. He was a prominent climate denier. But last year he wrote in The New York Times that he came to realize the error of his ways after an intensive review of the science.

Now this self-described “converted skeptic” has appointed himself the arbiter of serious environmentalism.

Richard Muller

The Mullers’ paper was published by British think tank. We read it so you don’t have to. Here are the main points: 1. Fracking is mainly used to extract natural gas. 2. Burning natural gas produces less soot than burning other fossil fuels. 3. Airborne soot is a major killer, especially in the developing world. Ergo, if you oppose fracking, then you support the deaths of millions of poor people. You monster.

In the Mullers’ minds, if you don’t like fracking, then you must prefer coal and oil. They imply that solar and wind energy will succeed only with government subsidies, ignoring the $544 billion that governments spent subsidizing fossil fuels last year. They also disregard the falling costs of renewables.

“The developed world has the financial resources to subsidise solar and wind,” the duo writes. “But developing countries are not wealthy enough to do that.” More from the paper:

Environmentalists who oppose the development of shale gas and fracking are making a tragic mistake.

Some oppose shale gas because it is a fossil fuel, a source of carbon dioxide. Some are concerned by accounts of the fresh water it needs, by flaming faucets, by leaked “fugitive methane”, by pollution of the ground with fracking fluid and by damaging earthquakes.

These concerns are either largely false or can be addressed by appropriate regulation.

For shale gas is a wonderful gift that has arrived just in time. It can not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also reduce a deadly pollution known as PM2.5 [tiny pieces of particulate matter, aka soot] that is currently killing over three million people each year, primarily in the developing world. …

Europe can develop shale gas far more rapidly than it can move to solar and wind, largely because of the low cost, the absence of an intermittency problem, and good existing gas infrastructure. To the extent that shale gas replaces coal, it will save hundreds of thousands of deaths each year, lives that will be lost if we choose the slower and more expensive transition to renewables.

All this despite the conclusion of experts that America’s fracking boom is having only “modest impacts” on greenhouse gas emissions. That’s because it’s not just displacing coal but also holding back renewables.

And for anybody who thinks natural gas doesn’t contribute to air pollution, we would suggest a day trip to poor neighborhoods in Contra Costa County east of San Francisco, where growing clusters of gas-burning plants in already-industrialized areas are hurting residents’ health.

It turns out there’s more behind the Mullers’ paper than meets the eye. Elizabeth Muller has a clear financial stake in the fracking industry. She is managing director of the China Shale Fund, a venture capital fund set up to export American fracking technology to Asia.

The Mullers’ paper was published by the Centre for Policy Studies, which was cofounded in 1974 by Margaret Thatcher “to promote the principles of a free society.” Why would a British think tank be promoting the Mullers’ views? Because fracking is a white-hot issue in the U.K. right now. The conservative national government desperately wants to expand fracking, but many citizens remain unconvinced of its benefits.

A free society, hey? It would sure be nice to free our society from fracking industry propaganda.


Source
Why every serious environmentalist should favour fracking, The Center for Policy Studies

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Repeat After Me: There’s No Such Thing as Socialsecurityandmedicare

by trasze2aja Posted on December 12, 2013

Mother Jones

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You may see some headlines today that report on a new study showing that boomer retirees will receive way more in Social Security and Medicare benefits than they pay in taxes. But be careful. Technically, that’s true, but it’s like saying the combined population of China and Vietnam is 1.4 billion. It’s true, but all the heavy lifting is being done by China.

In this case, all the heavy lifting is being done by Medicare. According to the latest estimates from the Urban Institute, current workers are paying far less in Medicare payroll taxes than they’ll eventually receive in health benefits when they retire. (Just as current retirees are receiving more benefits today than they paid in taxes during their working lives.) That’s a problem, and it’s the reason we need to focus so much attention on rising health care costs.

But Social Security? It varies a bit depending on whether you’re single or married, but generally speaking taxes and benefits are pretty similar. The chart below shows the Urban Institute’s estimates for workers who will retire in 2030, and it’s pretty obvious that future retirees aren’t getting an especially sweet deal here. They’re just getting back what they put in.

Generally speaking, you’re always being conned when people talk about “entitlements.” That usually means Social Security and Medicare, but they’re very different things. Social Security is fine, and will stay fine with nothing more than tweaks. Medicare is a bigger problem, and it’s the one that needs the most attention.

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Repeat After Me: There’s No Such Thing as Socialsecurityandmedicare

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China Is So Smoggy You Can’t Even See Beijing From Space

by turystycznypbs700 Posted on December 10, 2013

Can you find Beijing in this photo? Or anything, really? Photo: NASA Earth Observatory / Jeff Schmaltz / LANCE MODIS Rapid Response

China’s smog problems have been all over the news, with the air pollution to blame for bringing massive cities to a snarl, forcing the shutdown of factories and transportation, and wreaking havoc on people’s health. But a new photo captured by NASA’s Terra satellite really puts China’s smog problems into perspective: the smog over Beijing is so thick that it obscures the view of the city from space.

On December 7th, says NASA’s Earth Observatory, the day this photo was captured, “ground-based sensors at U.S. embassies in Beijing and Shanghai reported PM2.5 measurements as high as 480 and 355 micrograms per cubic meter of air respectively. The World Health Organization considers PM2.5 levels to be safe when they are below 25.”

PM2.5 refers to particles of air pollution that have a diameter below 2.5 micrometers.

“Fine, airborne particulate matter (PM) smaller than 2.5 microns (about one thirtieth the width of a human hair) is considered dangerous because it is small enough to enter the passages of the human lungs. Most PM2.5 aerosol particles come from the burning of fossil fuels and of biomass (wood fires and agricultural burning).”

For reference, here’s what the region is supposed to look like from space, a snap captured by Terra in January of last year. Beijing is the city in the top left, nestled among the mountains. The port city in the bottom right is Tianjin.

A smog-free look at the region, taken January 3, 2013. Photo: NASA Earth Observatory / Jeff Schmaltz / LANCE MODIS Response Team

More from Smithsonian.com:

Most of China’s Infamous Black Carbon Smog Comes From Cars And Cook Fires
Air Pollution Closed Schools in China

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China Is So Smoggy You Can’t Even See Beijing From Space

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Here’s Why Developing Countries Will Consume 65% of the World’s Energy by 2040

by Myrna Posted on December 4, 2013

China and India hold the world’s fate in their hands as energy use skyrockets in poorer countries. Barefoot Photographers of Tilonia/Flickr The Energy Shift now under way is as much geographical as it is technological. Case in point: By 2040, the developing world will account for 65 percent of the world’s energy consumption, according to a report released today by the United States Energy Information Administration. That’s up from 54 percent in 2010, and over the next three decades energy consumption is predicted to grow at a 2.2 percent annual clip in non-OCED (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. OCED nations – including Europe, the US, Canada and Australia – in contrast, will see their energy use increase by just 0.5 percent a year, roughly in line with population growth. To keep reading, click here. View post:  Here’s Why Developing Countries Will Consume 65% of the World’s Energy by 2040 ; ;Related ArticlesScientists Re-Trace Steps of Great Antarctic Explorer Douglas MawsonHow Do Meteorologists Fit into the 97% Global Warming Consensus?Why Climate Change Skeptics and Evolution Deniers Joined Forces ;

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Here’s Why Developing Countries Will Consume 65% of the World’s Energy by 2040

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China’s Space Program Expands With Launch of First Moon Rover

by CarriNDQ Posted on December 2, 2013

Mother Jones

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China will soon become the third country to ever land a spacecraft on the Moon’s surface. Early Monday morning, the Chinese government launched its first lunar probe, the Chang’e-3. The spacecraft should deposit the “Jade Rabbit” rover on the moon’s surface sometime in mid-December. The rover will conduct scientific experiments on the Moon’s Bay of Rainbows, a field of basaltic lava.

Chang’e-3 will be the first probe to touch down on the moon—rather than bluntly impact its surface—since the Soviet Union sent a mission there in 1976. The US hasn’t landed on the moon since the last Apollo mission in 1972. This latest launch is the second stage of a three-step plan for China’s lunar program. They’ve already completed step one (orbiting the moon) and are aiming to complete step three (returning an unmanned vessel with samples from the moon) by the end of the decade.

These missions are laying the groundwork for the country’s goal to land astronauts on the moon sometime around 2025. But those lunar ambitions are just one component of a broader Chinese space program. They’ve launched a space lab, which astronauts visited earlier this summer, and have plans for a permanent space station to rival the International Space Station (ISS), the orbiting station built by the US, EU, Russia, Japan and Canada. Not all of China’s missions are so benevolent, though: in 2007 China tested a missile that can destroy satellites, a technology that has set the US military on edge.

China’s advancements are a marked contrast to the US’s lack of political interest in space research. NASA is still the world’s preeminent authority on space exploration—the agency essentially leads the coalition in charge of the ISS and conducts the most ambitious scientific research of the solar system—but the program has diminished in stature since the heydays of the Apollo era in the early 1970s. NASA no longer can send its own astronauts to space. The agency has had to rely on Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft to ferry astronauts to the ISS since its Space Shuttle program ended in 2011. Upon taking office, President Barack Obama canceled George W. Bush’s lofty ambitions to return humans to the moon by 2020. Instead, Obama directed NASA to explore capturing an asteroid, but the proposal has been tepidly pushed by the president and stymied by congressional Republicans. NASA—an agency where 97 percent of employees were furloughed during October’s government shutdown—has also warned that any grand schemes for further space exploration will just be idle talk if sequestration cuts, which took nearly $1 billion out of the agency’s budget this year, continue into 2014.

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China’s Space Program Expands With Launch of First Moon Rover

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