Tag Archives: international

Yep, the Ghouta Gas Attacks Were Carried Out By the Assad Regime

Mother Jones

The UN report on the chemical weapons strike in the Ghouta suburb of Damascus has been released, and to no one’s surprise it confirms that a sarin gas attack was carried out. The report doesn’t try to affix blame for the attack, but the facts it provides make it vanishingly unlikely that it was launched by anyone other than the Assad regime.

The inspection team found two rockets that were relatively intact and therefore possible to describe in some detail (the details are in Appendix 5). The first one is an old Russian BM-14. The second is a unique design that Syria weapons autodidact Brown Moses has been referring to for a while as an UMLACA (Unidentified Munition Linked to Alleged Chemical Attacks). It’s shown below in the UN report:

The UMLACA appears to be manufactured, not cobbled together out of parts, as you might expect if it were a rebel design. What’s more, Moses says this about the BM-14 and the UMLACA: “In the 18 months I’ve been studying the arms and munitions in the conflict I have never seen either type of munition used by the opposition.”

The UN inspectors were able to estimate the trajectories of the two rockets they found, and BruceR provides a map showing where they seem to have come from:

The graphic here shows the actual bearings the report gives (215 degrees and 105 degrees) with arrows exactly 5 miles long, pointing away from their likely points of origin….Incredibly, the two rocket paths traced backwards actually converge right on Mount Qasioun, a mountain overlooking Damascus which the Syrian government has heavily fortified. You may remember Mount Qasioun… back in May Israeli jets blew up a huge quantity of “advanced surface-to-surface rockets” on the mountain they alleged were about to be transferred by the Syrian government to Hezbollah. The same mountain is also the location of the government’s secretive Jamraya military research center, long rumoured to be central to the Syrian government’s chemical weapons program.

And the New York Times adds this:

Moreover, those weapons are fired by large, conspicuous launchers. For rebels to have carried out the attack, they would have had to organize an operation with weapons they are not known to have and of considerable scale, sophistication and secrecy — moving the launchers undetected into position in areas under strong government influence or control, keeping them in place unmolested for a sustained attack that would have generated extensive light and noise, and then successfully withdrawing them — all without being detected in any way.

BruceR’s conclusion: “The chances of this being some kind of attack by someone outside the Syrian government, already slim, basically have to drop to zero now, assuming you trust the UN’s facts as presented.” That sounds about right. Added to all the other intelligence pointing in the same direction, there’s really no longer any case to be made that this was some kind of false-flag rebel operation. It was a chemical weapons attack mounted by the Assad government. Sorry, Rush.

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Yep, the Ghouta Gas Attacks Were Carried Out By the Assad Regime

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Obama’s Syria Plan: Epic Botch or Brilliant Diplomacy?

Mother Jones

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This is today’s omnibus Syria post.

First, I have a question. I keep hearing people talk about how hard it will be to verify that Bashar al-Assad has really given up all his chemical weapons under the agreement reached this weekend with the Russians. Fair enough. It will be hard. But then I keep hearing about how this will be “just like Saddam” and the way he tricked the UN inspectors. What am I missing here? Han Blix’s team certainly had issues with Saddam’s level of cooperation, but in the end there was no trickery. It’s just that Saddam had no weapons. That’s why it was hard to get a full accounting from him.

Right? So what is all this renewed Saddam talk about? Are the hawks just hoping that we’ve all forgotten there was no WMD to find in the first place?

Second, I am amused to see John McCain griping that this agreement will be viewed as “an act of provocative weakness on America’s part.” This got me wondering. Has there ever been any American action overseas short of a full-on invasion that McCain hasn’t viewed as an act of provocative weakness? I can’t think of any, but I suppose there must have been at least one or two. Somebody help me out here.

Third, I am eagerly waiting for some plugged-in White House reporter to write a definitive tick-tock about the whole Syria thing. The beginning of the story is pretty well known. I don’t think there’s much question that President Obama initially failed to grasp the level of opposition to his plan for air strikes, and that this forced him into a series of clumsy reverses and foolish statements. It was a pretty embarrassing fubar.

But despite the endless petulance from the usual suspects, the past two weeks have been different. By hook or by crook, Obama (a) raised the issue of Assad’s chemical weapons to an international level, (b) got Vladimir Putin (!) to take a lead role in reining them in, (c) got Assad to join the chemical weapons ban and agree to give up his stockpiles, and (d) do it all while keeping military pressure as an active option, but without ever firing a shot. Carrying out the inspections and destruction of Assad’s weapons will obviously be a Herculean task, but still, this is a good start.

So here’s what I want to know: was this all just a lucky accident? I’ve heard a couple of rumors lately that John Kerry’s “off the cuff” remark about Assad giving up his chemical weapons wasn’t unintended at all. In fact, he was authorized by the White House to bring it up when an opportunity presented itself, and that opportunity came last Monday. Kerry’s actual choice of words may have been a little awkward, but it was no accident. Putin expected it; Kerry knew what he was doing; Lavrov called to coordinate a few hours afterward; and the Russians then made their proposal. But this has all been kept under strict lock and key because the whole point was to make this a Putin initiative, one that he’d have ownership of. If it’s his baby, he’ll fight for it instead of coming up with endless reasons to nitpick an American proposal to death.

Is this how things went down? I have no idea. But I’d sure like to find out. If it’s true, it would be one of the most fascinating pieces of diplomatic legerdemain in recent years. And it would demonstrate an almost unheard-of willingness in a U.S. president to accept mountains of abuse because secrecy was essential to getting the job done.

So: crackpot rumor or actual fact? Someone with good White House sources needs to figure this out.

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Obama’s Syria Plan: Epic Botch or Brilliant Diplomacy?

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Dot Earth Blog: Encouraging Results Seen in First Nationwide Look at Gas Leaks from Drilling Boom

A nationwide look at natural gas emissions from fracking operations finds much less leakage than industry critics claim. Continue at source: Dot Earth Blog: Encouraging Results Seen in First Nationwide Look at Gas Leaks from Drilling Boom Related Articles Encouraging Results Seen in First Nationwide Look at Gas Leaks from Drilling Boom Unlocking the Potential of ‘Flammable Ice’ E.P.A. Is Expected to Set Limits on Greenhouse Gas Emissions by New Power Plants

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Dot Earth Blog: Encouraging Results Seen in First Nationwide Look at Gas Leaks from Drilling Boom

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Operation Green Fence Highlights Issues with U.S. Recycling Plan

For years, cardboard has been a highly profitable export from the U.S. to China. New regulations could change the way America approaches recycling and trash disposal. Photo: morgueFile/bosela

For years, one of America’s biggest exports to China was trash. But now, Operation Green Fence could overhaul our current recycling and trash disposal efforts. The initiative, announced in February 2013, is an effort by Chinese environmental and customs officials to be more stringent about what imported waste will be allowed into the country.

China has been a prime market for recycled raw materials for several years, and the U.S. — as well as Europe, Japan and Hong Kong — has exported scrap materials to China. In fact, it’s a highly profitable export for the U.S., which netted $10.8 billion from metal and paper scrap in 2011. Cardboard boxes and other scrap paper are particularly valuable; China lacks the abundant forest resources enjoyed by the U.S., so the Asian nation buys our cardboard and other scrap paper, then combines it with their lower-grade recycled fibers to improve the quality of their packaging materials.

With Operation Green Fence, China has announced that it will be stricter in terms of what contaminants it allows in shipments. That means any shipment of recyclables that’s found to have even a single contaminant — such as a syringe or a stowaway rodent — could be turned away. During the first three months of the initiative, about 7,600 tons of material from the U.S. was rejected, according to the International Solid Waste Association. Since the campaign began, an estimated 800,000 tons of recyclable waste total has been rejected.

Industry experts fear that this new approach will lead to increased exporting costs, and there’s also plenty of concern as to what the U.S. will do with its waste if it can’t be sent to China. With a lack of recycling centers to take the goods, some of it could end up in landfills. Cities may be forced to take a hard look at what kind of recycling is offered and/or find a way to produce less contaminated waste.

Whether the initiative continues — it was originally announced as a 10-month program that would end in November — it’s clear that America has to rethink its current mind-set toward recycling and create solutions that are no longer dependent on sending trash abroad.

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Operation Green Fence Highlights Issues with U.S. Recycling Plan

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The House Edge: Wall St. Exploits Ethanol Credits, and Prices Spike

A little known market in ethanol credits arose after financial institutions amassed millions of them — just as refiners were looking to buy more credits to meet an expanding federal requirement. See the original article here:   The House Edge: Wall St. Exploits Ethanol Credits, and Prices Spike ; ;Related ArticlesU.S. Coal Companies Scale Back Export GoalsChevron and Brazil Reach Deal on Oil SpillJudge Blocks Shipment of Oil Equipment Through Idaho Forest ;

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The House Edge: Wall St. Exploits Ethanol Credits, and Prices Spike

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Republican Senator: War in Syria Increases Chances for Keystone XL Pipeline Approval

Mother Jones

The Syrian civil war has resulted in more than two years of misery, a body count of roughly 100,000, too many war crimes to count, and talk of yet another American war effort. It might also boost the chances for approval of the Keystone pipeline, says a Republican senator.

“I believe it does,” Sen. John Hoeven (R-ND) told the Dickinson Press on Thursday. “Right now, we’re determining how to respond in the Middle East, specifically Syria, and it shows, with the volatile situation there, how important it is that we can produce our own energy in North America and not have to get it from the Middle East.”

On Thursday morning, Hoeven and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) introduced a resolution supporting the construction of the controversial Keystone pipeline, which would transport Canadian tar sands oil to the Gulf Coast in Texas. Syria isn’t a big producer of oil, and the Middle Eastern country’s exports have been severely restricted by sanctions imposed by Western powers. But it’s located near important pipelines and sea routes, and the Syria crisis and talk of US airstrikes have sharply affected oil prices.

Hoeven isn’t the only Republican tying Keystone to intervening in Syria. In late August, former House speaker and current Crossfire co-host Newt Gingrich recommended that House Republicans should link the two hot-button issues. “House GOP should combine Keystone Pipeline and Syria into one up or down vote,” Gingrich tweeted. “Let’s see who wants war while opposing American energy.” Right now, it seems that both decision are being put off. It is likely President Obama’s final decision on the Keystone XL project will be made next year, and this week the president asked Congress to delay a vote on authorization of military force against the Assad regime.

h/t Ben Geman

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Republican Senator: War in Syria Increases Chances for Keystone XL Pipeline Approval

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Syria Diplomacy Starting to Break Up on the Shoals of Reality

Mother Jones

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Here’s the latest from Syria:

Syria will start handing over information on its chemical weapons to international groups a month after it signs the Chemical Weapons Convention, President Bashar Assad has told a Russian TV channel….“I believe the agreement will come into force a month after the signing and Syria will start submitting data on its chemical weapons stockpile to international organizations. These are standard procedures and we are going to stick to them,” he said.

Meanwhile, the UN says that it has received a letter from Syria on the country’s intention to join the treaty banning the production of chemical arms, their stockpiling and use. The Syrian government’s letter of accession is being translated, AP cited UN associate spokesman Farhan Haq as saying Thursday. Signing the letter accession begins the process for a country to become party to the international agreement, the official said.

It doesn’t mean that Syria will sign the documents, fulfill the obligations and that’s it. It’s a bilateral process aimed, first of all, at making the US stop pursuing its policy of threats against Syria,” Assad said, adding that a lot would also depend on the extent to which Russia’s proposal is accepted.

The Washington Post has a more definitive quote from Assad’s interview: “When we see the United States really wants stability in our region and stops threatening, striving to attack, and also ceases arms deliveries to terrorists, then we will believe that the necessary processes can be finalized.”

So….this doesn’t sound very promising, does it? Assad is apparently saying that Syria will (a) sign the convention, (b) wait a month, (c) start submitting data, and then (d) eventually start getting rid of its chemical weapons. Or maybe not. It all depends on whether the U.S. stops arming the rebels. Stay tuned.

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Syria Diplomacy Starting to Break Up on the Shoals of Reality

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Saying No to Syria Matters (and it’s Not About Syria)

Mother Jones

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This story first appeared on the TomDispatch website.

Once again, we find ourselves at the day after 9/11, and this time America stands alone. Alone not only in our abandonment even by our closest ally, Great Britain, but in facing a crossroads no less significant than the one we woke up to on September 12, 2001. The past 12 years have not been good ones. Our leaders consistently let the missiles and bombs fly, resorting to military force and legal abominations in what passed for a foreign policy, and then acted surprised as they looked up at the sky from an ever-deeper hole.

At every significant moment in those years, our presidents opted for more, not less, violence, and our Congress agreed—or simply sat on its hands—as ever more moral isolation took the place of ever less diplomacy. Now, those same questions loom over Syria. Facing a likely defeat in Congress, Obama appears to be grasping—without any sense of irony—at the straw Russian President Vladimir Putin (backed by China and Iran) has held out in the wake of Secretary of State John Kerry’s off-the-cuff proposal that put the White House into a corner. After claiming days ago that the U.N. was not an option, the White House now seems to be throwing its problem to that body to resolve. Gone, literally in the course of an afternoon, were the administration demands for immediate action, the shots across the Syrian bow, and all that. Congress, especially on the Democratic side of the aisle, seems to be breathing a collective sigh of relief that it may not be forced to take a stand. The Senate has put off voting; perhaps a vote in the House will be delayed indefinitely, or maybe this will all blow over somehow and Congress can return to its usual partisan differences over health care and debt ceilings.

And yet a non-vote by Congress would be as wrong as the yes vote that seems no longer in the cards. What happens, in fact, if Congress doesn’t say no?

A History Lesson

The “Global War on Terror” was upon us in an instant. Acting out of a sense that 9/11 threw open the doors to every neocon fantasy of a future Middle Eastern and global Pax Americana, the White House quickly sought an arena to lash out in. Congress, acting out of fear and anger, gave the executive what was essentially a blank check to do anything it cared to do. Though the perpetrators of 9/11 were mostly Saudis, as was Osama bin Laden, al-Qaeda itself sought refuge in largely Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. So be it. The first shots of the War on Terror were fired there.

George W. Bush’s top officials, sure that this was their moment of opportunity, quickly slid destroying al-Qaeda as an organization into a secondary slot, invaded Afghanistan, and turned the campaign into a crusade to replace the Taliban and control the Greater Middle East. Largely through passivity, Congress said yes as, even in its earliest stages, the imperial nature of America’s global strategy revealed itself plain as day. The escape of Osama bin-Laden and much of al-Qaeda into Pakistan became little more than an afterthought as Washington set up what was essentially a puppet government in post-Taliban Afghanistan, occupied the country, and began to build permanent military bases there as staging grounds for more of the same.

Some two years later, a series of administration fantasies and lies that, in retrospect, seem at best tragicomic ushered the United States into an invasion and occupation of Iraq. Its autocratic leader and our former staunch ally in the region, Saddam Hussein, ruled a country that would have been geopolitically meaningless had it not sat on what Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz called “a sea of oil”—and next to that future target of neocon dreams of conquest, Iran. Once again, Congress set off on a frenzied rush to yes, and a second war commenced out of the ashes of 9/11.

With the mighty American military now on their eastern and western borders and evidently not planning on leaving any time soon, Iranian officials desperately sought out American diplomats looking for some kind of rapprochement. They offered to assist in Afghanistan and, it was believed, to ensure that any American pilots shot down by accident over Iranian territory would be repatriated quickly. Channels to do so were reportedly established by the State Department and it was rumored that broader talks had begun. However, expecting a triumph in Iraq and feeling that the Iranians wouldn’t stand a chance against the “greatest force for liberation the world has ever known” (aka the US military), a deeply overconfident White House snubbed them, dismissing them as part of the “Axis of Evil.” Congress, well briefed on the administration’s futuristic fantasies of domination, sat by quietly, offering another passive yes.

Congress also turned a blind eye to the setting up of a global network of “black sites” for the incarceration, abuse, and torture of “terror suspects,” listened to torture briefings, read about CIA rendition (i.e., kidnapping) operations, continued to fund Guantanamo, and did not challenge the devolving wars in Iraq or Afghanistan. Its members sat quietly by while a new weapon, armed drones, at the personal command of the president alone, crisscrossed the world assassinating people, including American citizens, within previously sovereign national boundaries. As a new president came into office and expanded the war in Afghanistan, ramped up the drone attacks, made war against Libya, did nothing to aid the Arab Spring, and allowed Guantanamo to fester, Congress said yes. Or, at least, not no, never no.

The World Today

Twelve years later, the dreams of global domination are in ruins and the world America changed for the worse is a very rough place. This country has remarkably few friends and only a handful of largely silent semi-allies. Even the once gung-ho president of France has been backing off his pledges of military cooperation in Syria in the face of growing popular opposition and is now calling for U.N. action. No longer does anyone cite the United States as a moral beacon in the world. If you want a measure of this, consider that Vladimir Putin seemed to win the Syria debate at the recent G20 summit as easily as he now has captured the moral high ground on Syria by calling for peace and a deal on Assad’s chemical weapons.

The most likely American a majority of global citizens will encounter is a soldier. Large swaths of the planet are now off-limits to American tourists and businesspeople, far too dangerous for all but the most foolhardy to venture into. The State Department even warns tourists to Western Europe that they might fall victim to al-Qaeda. In the coming years, few Americans will see the pyramids or the ruins of ancient Babylon in person, nor will they sunbathe, among other places, on the pristine beaches of the southern Philippines. Forget about large portions of Africa or most of the rest of the Middle East. Americans now fall victim to pirates on the high seas, as if it were the nineteenth century all over again.

After 12 disastrous years in the Greater Middle East, during which the missiles flew, the bombs dropped, doors were repeatedly kicked in, and IEDs went off, our lives, even at home, have changed. Terrorism, real and imagined, has turned our airports into giant human traffic jams and sites of humiliation, with lines that resemble a Stasi version of Disney World. Our freedoms, not to speak of the Fourth Amendment right to privacy, have been systematically stripped away in the name of American “safety,” “security,” and fear. Congress said yes to all of that, too, even naming the crucial initial piece of legislation that began the process the PATRIOT Act without the slightest sense of irony.

When I spoke with Special Forces personnel in Iraq, I was told that nearly every “bad guy” they killed or captured carried images of American torture and abuse from Abu Ghraib on his cellphone—as inspiration. As the victims of America’s violence grew, so did the armies of kin, those inheritors of “collateral damage,” seeking revenge. The acts of the past 12 years have even, in a few cases, inspired American citizens to commit acts of homegrown terrorism.

Until this week, Washington had abandoned the far-from-perfect-but-better-than-the-alternatives United Nations. Missiles and bombs have sufficed for our “credibility,” or so Washington continues to believe. While pursuing the most aggressive stance abroad in its history, intervening everywhere from Libya and Yemen to the Philippines, seeking out monsters to destroy and, when not enough could be found, creating them, the United States has become ever more isolated globally.

Our Choice

The horror show of the last 12 years wasn’t happenstance. Each instance of war was a choice by Washington, not thrust upon us by a series of Pearl Harbors. Our Congress always said yes (or least avoided ever saying no). Many who should have known better went on to join the yes men. In regard to Iran and George W. Bush, then-candidate for president Senator Joe Biden, for instance, said in 2007, “I was Chairman of the Judiciary Committee for 17 years. I teach separation of powers in constitutional law. This is something I know. So I brought a group of constitutional scholars together to write a piece that I’m going to deliver to the whole United States Senate pointing out that the president has no constitutional authority to take this country to war against a country of 70 million people unless we’re attacked or unless there is proof that we are about to be attacked. And if he does, I would move to impeach him. The House obviously has to do that, but I would lead an effort to impeach him.”

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Saying No to Syria Matters (and it’s Not About Syria)

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"We Made Them Suck Their Own Blood off the Floor:" Assad’s Other War Crimes

Mother Jones

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For the last month, Washington has been tying itself in knots over how to respond to the Syrian government’s alleged use of chemical weapons. The Syrian people, meanwhile, are being subjected to ever-graver atrocities, most having nothing to do with poison gas. A new report from the United Nations Commission of Inquiry on Syria illuminates the increasingly brutal tactics that the country’s government—and, to a lesser degree, rebels—are deploying against civilians, from electrocution and rape to enlisting medical professionals to help torture hospitalized detainees. Significantly, while the report focuses on the commission’s findings from mid-May to mid-July and doesn’t cover the August chemical-weapons attack near Damascus, it concludes that both sides are guilty of war crimes and also accuses pro-government forces of crimes against humanity.

Whether the international community will do anything to curb the escalating brutality is an open question, though Thursday’s meeting between Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov may provide some answers. If the two sides can come together and craft an agreement to secure Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile, perhaps the international community can also find common ground on other measures to protect civilians—and hold Syria’s war criminals to account.

Below is a roundup of atrocities laid out in the UN report.

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"We Made Them Suck Their Own Blood off the Floor:" Assad’s Other War Crimes

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Do We Have Any Clue How to Fight Terrorism?

Mother Jones

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On the 12th anniversary of 9/11, Dylan Matthews decides to find out whether we’ve learned much of anything about fighting terrorism. Luckily, a trio of researchers produced a broad review of the counterterrorism literature in 2009. Unluckily, they didn’t find much to review:

The first problem the review identifies is that barely any of the terrorism literature even tries to answer questions about effective counterterrorism. “Of the over 20,000 reports regarding terrorism that we located,” the authors write, “only about 1.5 percent of this massive literature even remotely discussed the idea that an evaluation had been conducted of counter-terrorism strategies.”

They found 354 studies that did, however. Further culling left them 80 studies that could be reasonably said to evaluate the effectiveness of counterterrorism measures. Of these, only 21 of those 80 studies “appeared to at least attempt to connect an outcome or effect with a program through a minimally rigorous scientific test.” Of those 21, only 10 met the Campbell review’s methodological standards. Three of those were medical studies dealing with the effects of bioterrorism, leaving seven for the review to consider.

But wait! It’s even worse than that. Not only did they find only seven relevant studies—which is probably less than the number of studies of LOLcats in popular culture over the past decade1—but those seven studies were all basically negative. None of the counterterrorism strategies studied actually reduced terrorism.

In fairness, it’s possible there are classified studies we don’t know about. It’s also worth pointing out that supposedly rigorous academic studies aren’t the be-all and end-all of human knowledge. It’s perfectly reasonable for us to take actions based on our best intuitions about how our fellow human beings react to various carrots and sticks.

Nonetheless—and even granting that this is a difficult area to study—this is a pretty remarkable finding. You’d think that testing our intuitions about what works and what doesn’t would be of far greater interest that it is. I guess we’d all rather just blather and toss bombs around instead.

1After I wrote this, I got curious. Are there more studies of LOLcats than of counterterrorism strategies? That depends on your definition, but at the very least it’s a close call. A quick search of Google Scholar turned up an awful lot of citations for LOLcats. Among them were “Wants moar: Visual media’s use of text in LOLcats and silent film,” “I @m teh 1337 h@xx0r: A closer look at Internet Englishes and their sociolinguistic implications,” “I Can Haz an Internet Aesthetic?!? LOLCats and the Digital Marketplace,” and “I Can Has Cultural Influenz?: The Effects of Internet Memes on Popular Culture.” Among other things, this demonstrates that scholars of popular culture all apparently think they’re a lot cleverer than they really are.

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Do We Have Any Clue How to Fight Terrorism?

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