Tag Archives: markets

Trump’s Economic Adviser Said the Economy Was Fine—Right Before It Imploded

Mother Jones

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Following a tumultuous week in which Donald Trump’s poll numbers tanked and reports of staff unrest dogged his campaign, the GOP nominee is trying to change the conversation by focusing on his economic vision. On Friday, ahead of a big economic policy speech Trump is expected to deliver next week, the Trump campaign released a list of his economic advisers. The roster of 13 men—all are men and five are named Steven or Stephen—includes a handful of billionaires and financial moguls, several of them longtime Trump friends. Also on Trump’s economic brain trust is an economist, David Malpass, who downplayed concerns about the economy shortly before his firm collapsed and the economy cratered.

Malpass is a former economic adviser to Ronald Reagan whom the Trump campaign touts as having “extensive private sector experience.” That experience includes serving for 15 years as the chief economist for Bear Stearns—the Wall Street firm that was deeply enmeshed in the subprime mortgage market—in the lead-up to the investment bank’s spectacular March 2008 collapse.

The fall of Bear Sterns lit the fuse on the economic crisis. And perhaps more so than its competitors, the 85-year-old investment bank came to exemplify the excesses and short-sighted economics that led to the financial meltdown. If Trump is counting on Malpass for economic advice, he had better hope it’s an improvement on the wisdom the economist dispensed as the financial system hurtled toward a cliff. Nine months before his company fell apart, Malpass wrote a column for the Wall Street Journal titled “Don’t Panic About Credit Markets.” He derided the “hyperventilation over the coming U.S. economic slowdown” and wrote:

The slowdown talk weighing on equities also reflects the Wall Street view that debt, mortgage and takeover businesses have replaced General Motors as the economy’s bellwether. According to the bears: As goes the credit market, so goes the economy. Fortunately, Main Street is not that fickle. Housing and debt markets are not that big a part of the U.S. economy, or of job creation. It’s more likely the economy is sturdy and will grow solidly in coming months, and perhaps years.

So, that was wrong.

Malpass did fine, though. He currently sits on the board of New Mountain Capital, a multi-billion-dollar private investment firm, and runs his own market research firm.

Malpass is not the only person on Trump’s list of economic advisers who played a controversial role during the economic crisis.

In July 2008, several months after Bear Sterns fell apart, the federal government was forced to take over Indy Mac, which was overwhelmed by the bad mortgages it had issued. The government was eager to get rid of the bank’s assets, and Steve Mnuchin, who serves as the Trump campaign’s finance co-chairman and is a member of his economic team, swooped in. Mnuchin, a former Goldman Sachs banker and hedge funder, made much of his current fortune by organizing a new bank, called OneWest, to buy IndyMac’s portfolio of mortgages. Part of the deal was that the federal government and taxpayers would cover any losses if more mortgages went bad, and OneWest would make the profits on anything that didn’t. Mnuchin’s bank would become infamous for its hardball tactics and willingness to foreclose on struggling homeowners.

Perhaps the biggest name on Trump’s economic team is John Paulson, a hedge fund manager whose firm foresaw the subprime mortgage meltdown and made billions betting against the big banks that were heavily invested in mortgage-backed securities. In 2010, Paulson’s fund made more than $5 billion, setting a record. Previously, Paulson was a major donor and fundraiser for Mitt Romney and the super-PAC backing his 2012 presidential run.

The defining characteristic of Trump’s team of economic advisers seems to be that they are friends of the GOP nominee, financial backers of his campaign, or both. That includes Tom Barrack, who has been friends with Trump for decades, ever since negotiating the sale of the Plaza Hotel in New York City to Trump. Barrack is well known in financial circles for getting involved with unorthodox deals—in one case, he arranged oil sales between Saudi princes and Haitian dictator Baby Doc Duvalier, giving the autocrat his watch to help smooth the deal.

It’s unclear how extensively Trump will be relying on the counsel of his brain trust. Last year, when asked whom he consults with on foreign policy matters, Trump remarked that his top adviser was himself.

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Trump’s Economic Adviser Said the Economy Was Fine—Right Before It Imploded

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Even With a Teleprompter, Donald Trump Is Full of Shit

Mother Jones

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Professor Trump delivered a lecture on the evils of international trade today. Here’s a snippet:

Massive trade deficits subtract directly from our Gross Domestic Product. From 1947 to 2001 — a span of over five decades — our inflation-adjusted gross domestic product grew at a rate of 3.5%. However, since 2002 — the year after we fully opened our markets to Chinese imports — that GDP growth rate has been cut almost in half.

What does this mean for Americans? For every one percent of GDP growth we fail to generate in any given year, we also fail to create over one million jobs. America’s “job creation deficit” due to slower growth since 2002 is well over 20 million jobs — and that’s just about the number of jobs our country needs right now to put America back to work at decent wages.

There are two interesting things about this. First, Trump was reading off a teleprompter, and you can tell. The real Donald Trump would have ranted about the real unemployment rate being 40 percent and 50 million people being out of work or something. Who knows? But the carefully handled Donald Trump produces a well-modulated stream of numbers that actually sounds plausible.

And yet—even with someone else carefully vetting the numbers, they still don’t come close to making sense. Consider: the U6 unemployment rate right now is 9.7 percent. This represents every single human being in the country who wants a job but can’t get one, or who wants a full-time job but can only get part-time work. Even if they’re discouraged and not currently looking for work, they’re counted.

The U6 series only goes back to 1994, but a good guess is that the lowest it’s been in all of postwar history is about 6.5 percent. We’d hit that mark if 5 million more people were working. If you do the calculation based on the current output gap instead of the U6 rate, you come up with roughly the same number.

In other words, 5 million is the absolute max, even in theory. If that many more people had jobs, the economy would be roaring along at a 1960s boom level. So where does 20 million come from? If it were just Trump blathering away, the question wouldn’t be worth asking. But this supposedly came from someone who actually thought about these numbers. And they’re still off by a factor of at least four. I sure hope Trump doesn’t run his business with financial estimates like this.

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Even With a Teleprompter, Donald Trump Is Full of Shit

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What’s Better: CSA, Farmers Market, Grocery Store, or Garden?

Whenfruit and vegetable stands are about to be filled with all kinds of fabulous summer produce, does it make more sense to buy from a CSA, farmer’s market, or grocery store? And where does your own garden fit in?

Here are the pros and cons of each option, designed to help you maximize your access to fresh and delicious locally grown, hopefully organic, food.

CSA:CSA stands for “community supported agriculture.” Farmers sell “shares” in the food they harvest; consumers sign up at the beginning of the growing season, and then get fresh food usually every week throughout thesummer and fall.

PROS: An advantage of the farmers is that they get investments up front to help with cash flow. The number of CSA shares they sell will tell them what demand for their food will be. Consumers have the chance tobuild a relationship with the people who grow their food, and also get very fresh food. Plus, CSA shareholder may be able to visit the farm their food comes from and help with harvesting and other chores.

CONS: One complaint some people have about CSAs is that they get a lot of greens they don’t necessarily know what to do with. When lettuce, spinach, kale, mustard and the like start to be harvested, they’reusually available in abundance. Some farmers help by providing recipes on their websites. But farmers also encourage consumers to split shares if they can’t consume everything in a full share in one week. Most CSAs have a pick-up spot that’s central to a lot of shareholders, so when you sign up, make sure it’s convenient to where you work or live. Other CSAs distribute their produce at farmers markets, which is good because you can supplement your share with other produce that your particular farmer might not grow.

Is a CSA cheaper than shopping on your own? It will depend on what you normally buy and what the price of a share or half-share is. You might want to start with a half-share and see how it works for you, both financially and in terms of the choices you have.

You can find the nearest CSA to you at the Local Harvest website.

FARMER’S MARKET:Some farmer’s markets operate all year long; others are spring, summer and fall markets only. Obviously, weather is the determining factor in many regions. I live in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. Our market runs 12 months a year, but food vendors vary, depending on the season. The summer and fall fruit and vegetable growers give way to wineries, cheesemakers, bakeries, and egg producers once the cold weather hits. There is also a hydroponic lettuce grower who sells at our market in the winter, but not the summer.

PROS: Shopping at a farmer’s market is a great experience because the food is so fresh, the farmers are so accessible, and you’ll inevitably run into friends and neighbors. You get to taste almost everything you want to buy. And farmers at the markets have a tendency to grow heirloom varieties, so rather than having one bland Beefsteak tomato to choose from at the grocery store, you might have four or five different, delicious options at the market. You’ll also get food that’s picked when it’s at its ripest, rather than food that’s been picked green and shipped half-way around the world.

CONS: Farmer’s markets can be more expensive than grocery stores because they don’t have the industrial output that allows grocery stores to charge lower prices. Also, farmer’s markets are usually open only once a week, so you can’t necessarily rely on them if you need groceries in the middle of the week. While some farmers markets sell meat and dairy products, selection is usually pretty limited.

GROCERY STORE:Grocery stores have gotten better about stocking food that’s locally grown. Many stores will put up signs so shoppers know what’s local and what’s not.

PROS: Because grocery store chains buy so much food at one time, they’re able to charge much less for it than farmers selling at local markets or CSAs. Grocery stores are open 7 days a week, usually from 7 or 8 in the morning until 10 p.m. or later, and they often deliver. If you get stuck for salad fixings or a dozen eggs, they’re pretty easy to pick up on your way home from work. You can also set up a regular weekly delivery from a lot of grocery stores so you never have to set foot in the actual store. Grocery stores that are buying from local farmers instead of far-away producers are helping to boost the local economy, and of course, grocery stores employ a lot of people locally, too.

CONS: Grocery stores sell a lot of junk and shoppers end up buying — and wasting — food they don’t need because they impulse-buy productsthey see on theshelf. It’s also possible that people waste more food when they shop at a grocery store because they overbuy, something that’s easy to do when you’re pushing a shopping cart around but perhaps less likely if you’re carrying a couple of shopping bags through a farmer’s market. Farmers aren’t on hand in grocery stores, so you don’t get to build a relationship with the people who are growing and harvesting your food. You don’t get to visit the farm, either, since grocery stores usually don’t tell you which farm produced which apple or tomato.

YOUR OWN GARDEN:The garden you plant is about the freshest, most local, and most organic food source you can have.

PROS: You can plant exactly what you like to eat, plus try a few unusual foods to expand your palate. Gardening is great exercise, and will get you outside and active. For many people, gardening is a spiritual and wondrous experience. It’s extremelysatisfying planting seeds, watching them grow, harvesting them, and serving a meal consisting of food produced with your own sweat and care. When you grow your own food, you have total control over what chemicals are used in the process. Growing your own is the cheapest way to get organic food from “field to table.”

CONS: Gardening can be hard work. It takes time and effort to sow seeds, keep garden beds weeded, and ward off bugs if you’re gardening organically. Growing enough food to feed a family for a summer is tough without enough space, though there are ways to use raised beds and companion planting to increase your yields. You need to keep an eye on your own garden and be available to harvest the food when it’s ripe, or all your effort will have been made in vain. You also need to be prepared to water your garden regularly in the event that a drought hits — in which case, you may have a very high water bill. Depending on where you live, rodents and deer might get into your garden and eat your food; birds will happily eat up all the berries when your bushes are ripe. On the other hand, freshly picked tomatoes and beans are absolutely delicious, and extra special because they came from your own yard.

My recommendation is that you take advantage of them all: CSAs, farmer’s markets, the grocery store and your own garden. Find someone to split a CSA share with, and get to know the variety of interesting foods that will inevitably show up in your box. Supplement the share with additional fruits and vegetables from your farmer’s market, and if you need to stop bythe grocery store, shop at the local produce bins first. If you’re new to gardening, start with pots of herbs you can keep in a sunny spot on a porch or patio, along with cherry tomatoes, and even a pot of lettuce. Or be bold, and till a section of your yard so you can plant beans, cucumbers, radishes, and zucchini along with lettuce and tomatoes.

RELATED:

Get a Head Start on Planning Your Organic Salad Garden

Want to Support Local Farmers and Get Fresh Food? join a CSA.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are solely those of the author and may not reflect those of Care2, Inc., its employees or advertisers.

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What’s Better: CSA, Farmers Market, Grocery Store, or Garden?

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Coal exec admits Donald Trump doesn’t understand the first thing about coal

Coal exec admits Donald Trump doesn’t understand the first thing about coal

By on May 24, 2016Share

The way Donald Trump talks about the coal industry, Appalachian miners will be getting back to work on day one of his administration. “The miners of West Virginia and Pennsylvania, which was so great to me last week, Ohio and all over are going to start to work again, believe me,” the presumptive Republican nominee said earlier this month. Everything will be great.

What is unclear is how Trump intends to make coal mining great again, since he doesn’t appear to understand the first thing about the industry he intends to save — neither the broad-brush economics, nor what is within the president’s power to do. Even a coal industry executive, Bob Murray, CEO of Murray Energy and vocal Obama critic, has to admit Trump doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

In an interview with Taylor Kuykendall, a reporter for the trade publication SNL Energy, Murray revealed just how little Trump really gets about coal.

Trump, for instance, reportedly asked Murray, “What’s LNG?” (it stands for liquified natural gas, which the candidate might want to read up on as the glut of cheap natural gas is a large factor in coal’s demise.)

Murray also told Kuykendall that Trump is over-promising and should stop setting unrealistic expectations for coal’s big comeback:

“I don’t think it will be a thriving industry ever again,” Murray said. “We’ll hold our own. It will be an extremely competitive industry and it will be half size. … The coal mines can not come back to where they were or anywhere near it.”

Implicit in Murray’s comments is the fact that there is a lot outside a president’s control when it comes to coal. These include: sinking prices for natural gas and renewable energy that have made coal far less competitive; other markets’, like China’s, demand for coal; and coal production moving from Appalachia to Wyoming, now the top U.S. coal producer, where it’s cheaper to mine.

In other words, Trump can do his worst — like scrap the Environmental Protection Agency — and it won’t bring about an economic revolution for these states. Murray all but admits that when he says he’s skeptical of Trump’s abilities to reverse all these trends.

Trump’s delusions, however, won’t stop the industry from embracing him. Calling Trump “the horse to ride” in a speech yesterday, Murray was ready to give Trump a pass on the policy. As he told Kuykendall, “he’s just focused on getting elected so he has to kind of gloss over all of the issues.”

Trump will be presumably be enlightening us on his energy policy on Thursday, in a speech in North Dakota, home of the domestic oil and gas boom that has helped kill coal.

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Coal exec admits Donald Trump doesn’t understand the first thing about coal

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9 Ways You Can Get Cheap Organic Food

Organic foods have been shown to have higher nutrient contents and significantly lower amounts of toxic pesticide residues than foods grown using non-organic methods. Unfortunately, fresh and prepared organic foods are often sold at a higher price than their mainstream counterparts.

You dont have to pay a premium to buy organic food. Many options exist to keep healthy, organic food affordable.

1. Plan ahead

This may be tough for some of us, but planning your meals ahead of time can be a big money-saver. When you have a clear shopping list, youll be less likely to impulse buy expensive items you dont need.

Try writing down a list of what meals youll be preparing for the upcoming week. It doesnt have to be perfect, as long as you have an idea of the main ingredients youll need on hand. You can also try to make extra portions and freeze them for later.

This will help to make sure you use all the food you buy. If you buy food you dont have a plan for, its easier to let it sit unused and expire or go to waste.

2. Buy seasonal produce

The best place to find seasonal produce is at your local farmers markets. They typically bring freshly harvested produce, which will be at its nutritional peak. You can often buy in larger amounts for a reduced price. There may also be end of the day clearance sales of remaining products the farmers simply dont want to take home.

Grocery stores can also bring in seasonal, local produce. Sometimes these are available at reduced, bulk prices as well.

Another great option for finding seasonal organic produce is you-pick farms. Depending on where you live, you may be able to pick your own organic vegetables, fruit and berries. You-picks tend to have much lower prices per pound than in-store produce.

3. Find bulk foods where possible

Many communities have stores that specialize in bulk foods. Larger grocery stores also often have bulk foods sections that include organic items.

You can typically find lots of organic staples in bulk at good prices, such as beans, grains, dried fruit, nuts and seeds. If you can buy larger amounts at one time, the cost is usually lower.

Keeping your kitchen well-stocked with foods you use on a regular basis will help make meal preparation easier. You also wont need to buy last-minute items in small amounts, which are more expensive.

4. Look for no-name, in-store organic products

Many grocery stores will have their own lines of organic products. This can include prepared foods, such as condiments, canned foods or juices. Some stores even offer their own brand of organic produce.

These products are often priced very competitively compared to organic name-brands.

5. Make use of technology

We have a lot of different modern options to help out with saving money on food costs.

Websites like Living Rich With Coupons, My Grocery Deals and My Simon can automatically compare prices of foods available in regular and online stores.

Coupons are another good way to keep food costs down. You can use flyers from junk mail sent to your house or there are various websites where you can print coupons online, such as Living Rich With Coupons or Coupons.com.

Another way to save is by signing up for rewards and point programs some stores offer. These typically give you points every time you buy something in the store, which can be collected and used to buy more products later.

6. Broaden your definition of organic

Some farmers are committed to organic growing principles, but are not certified due to various reasons. The official organic certification process can be expensive and time-consuming. There is also the criticism that organically certified farms may still cheat and the regulations are not strict enough.

Getting to know your local farmers is a great way to find out more about their growing practices. Those who grow organically, but are not certified, will often be happy to tell you about their own processes for keeping their crops healthy and controlling pests naturally.

Their prices will also potentially be less than those who are officially certified organic.

7. Join a CSA near you

CSA stands for community supported agriculture. With these programs, you often pay a farmer a yearly or monthly fee and receive a box of produce every week or two for the entire growing season. Some CSAs will also operate year round, providing vegetables stored through the winter.

Some CSAs are certified organic, although smaller operations may simply follow organic practices and be uncertified. Ask your local CSA to find out more about them.

8. Grow your own

If you have an interest in gardening, growing your own produce is likely the cheapest option for eating organic. You also know exactly what products, such as compost, were used to grow your crop.

Seeds are fairly cheap, and many organic seed varieties are available. Most seed packages contain enough seed to last for a few years of crops.

Even if you dont have property of your own, find out if there is a community garden where you could rent a plot. Or check if there are any volunteering opportunities locally where you can share a portion of the harvest.

Exchanging crops with friends can be an efficient way to grow more varieties of food. For instance, you could commit to growing enough lettuce and potatoes to share with a few friends, and they would each grow other types of veggies that would also be shared.

9. Preserve your own produce

Canning, freezing and dehydrating are all excellent and affordable ways to preserve fresh organic foods. This allows you to buy in larger quantities at lower prices and create nutritious, convenient supplies you can use all year.

Canning supplies can be easily found secondhand, and canning jars can be consistently re-used. The only expense for freezing is buying freezer bags. A dehydrator can also be found secondhand or if you get a new one, it will be a one-time investment.

Hosting preserving parties can be a fun way to share a harvest with your friends and family. You can also get together and buy bulk quantities of produce together to lower everyones costs.

Related
6 Hearty Vegan Chili Recipes For Any Season
15 Reasons to Eat Organic Food
Top 10 Eco-Friendly Reasons to Buy Organic Meat & Diary

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are solely those of the author and may not reflect those of Care2, Inc., its employees or advertisers.

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9 Ways You Can Get Cheap Organic Food

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This One Simple Trick Will Allow You to Make a Killing Betting on the Presidential Race

Mother Jones

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Jim Tankersley examines the presidential odds at PredictWise today and concludes that punters are probably underestimating Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning. Why? Justin Wolfers explains that it’s likely due to something called “longshot bias”:

The favorite tends to win in betting markets more often than indicated by the odds. So if the markets say she’s a 47% chance to be president, history suggests that the true odds are a bit better than that.

….There’s another way to get at this though, which is simply to ask whether the odds make sense. I think the idea that Clinton is only a 75 percent chance to win the nomination is nuts — she’s essentially the only serious candidate running, and it’s now clear that her campaign is not going to implode. With any candidate there are risks that secrets may come out, but with Mrs. Clinton, we’ve had several decades for them to surface. So my (personal!) judgment is that she is at least an 85 percent chance to win the nomination, and maybe 90 percent is a more realistic assessment.

OK. But what I want to know is why the betting markets say that Democrats have a 58 percent chance of winning the presidency, but the combined chance of all the individual Democratic candidates is 63 percent. There must be some way to arbitrage this so that you’ll make money no matter what happens. Right?

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This One Simple Trick Will Allow You to Make a Killing Betting on the Presidential Race

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Federal Court to EPA: No, You Can’t Approve This Pesticide That Kills Bees

Mother Jones

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On Thursday, a federal appeals court struck down the Environmental Protection Agency’s approval of a pesticide called sulfoxaflor. Marketed by agrichemical giant Dow AgroSciences, sulfoxaflor belongs to a class of pesticides called neonicotinoids, which have been implicated by a growing weight of evidence in the global crisis in bee health. In a blunt opinion, the court cited the “precariousness of bee populations” and “flawed and limited data” submitted by Dow on the pesticide’s effects on beleaguered pollinating insects.

Before winning approval for sulfoxaflor back in 2013, the company hyped the product to investors, declaring that it “addresses a $2 billion market need currently unmet by biotech solutions,” particularly for cotton and rice.

US beekeepers were less enthusiastic—a group of national beekeeping organizations, along with the National Honey Bee Advisory Board, quickly sued the EPA to withdraw its registration of sulfoxaflor, claiming that the EPA itself had found sulfoxaflor to be “highly toxic to honey bees, and other insect pollinators.”

Thursday’s ruling, a response to that suit, took their side. It applies only to sulfoxaflor, which Dow markets as a foliar spray on a variety of crops, including cotton, soybean, citrus, stone fruit, nuts, grapes, potatoes, vegetables, and strawberries. It has no bearing on the EPA’s equally controversial approval of other neonics like clothianidin and imidacloprid, which are widely used as seed treatments on the two most prominent US crops: corn and soybeans.

But Greg Loarie, an attorney for EarthJustice who argued the case for the beekeeper’s coalition, told me that the decision has broad significance because the ruling “makes clear” that when the EPA is assessing new pesticides, it must assess robust data on the health impacts on the entire hive, not just on individual adult bees.

In its opinion, the court rebuked the EPA for approving sulfoxaflor despite “inconclusive or insufficient data on the effects…on brood development and long-term colony health.” That’s a problem, the court added, because pesticides can cause subtle harm to bees that don’t kill them but that “ripple through the hive,” which is an “interdependent ‘superorganism.'” Indeed, many independent studies have demonstrated just such effects—that low-level exposure to neonics is “sub-lethal” to individual bees but compromises long-term hive health.

“The EPA doesn’t have that hive-level information on very many insecticides, if any,” Loarie said.

And in the case of sulfoxaflor, the agency didn’t try very hard to get that information. In January 2013, because of major gaps in research on the new chemical’s effect on bees, the EPA decided to grant sulfoxaflor “conditional registration” and ordered Dow to provide more research. And then a few months later, the agency granted sulfoxaflor unconditional registration—even though “the record reveals that Dow never completed the requested additional studies,” the court opinion states.

In an even more scathing addendum to the court’s main opinion, Circuit Judge N.R. Smith added, “I am inclined to believe the EPA…decided to register sulfoxaflor unconditionally in response to public pressure for the product and attempted to support its decision retroactively with studies it had previously found inadequate.” The judge added, “Such action seems capricious.”

Sulfoxaflor’s twisted path through the EPA’s approval process isn’t the first time the agency has green-lighted a neonicotinoid pesticide under dodgy circumstances, as I showed in this 2010 piece on clothianidin, a widely marketed pesticide marketed by Dow’s European rival, Bayer.

In 2013—the same year the EPA approved sulfoxaflor—the European Union placed a two-year moratorium on clothianidin and two other major neonics, citing pollinator health concerns. For a study released last year, the US Geological Survey found neonic traces in all the Midwestern rivers and streams it tested, declaring them to be “both mobile and persistent in the environment.” In addition to harming bees, neonics may also harm birds and fish, Canadian researchers have found.

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Federal Court to EPA: No, You Can’t Approve This Pesticide That Kills Bees

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Fragile Global Economy Is Starting to Crack Up

Mother Jones

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I woke up a little late this morning, but maybe that turned out to be a good thing. The Dow Jones plunged a thousand points within minutes of opening, but by the time I saw the news it had already recouped about half of that loss:

You can probably guess what triggered this:

The stock drop was fueled by what China’s state media is already calling “Black Monday,” in which markets there recorded their biggest one-day plunge in eight years amid growing fears over an economic slowdown.

On Friday, China reported its worst manufacturing results since the global financial crisis, a new sign of woe for the world’s second-largest economy, which surprised investors earlier this month by announcing it would devalue its currency. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite index has fallen by nearly 40 percent since June, after soaring more than 140 percent last year.

Markets around the world are crashing, and as usual that means seeking safety in the good old US of A:

Investors stampeded into relatively safe assets such as U.S. government bonds, the Swiss franc and the yen. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped below 2% during Asian trading and recently was 1.976%, the lowest level since April.

….“A lot of markets abroad have seen a low amount of liquidity so investors are turning to the U.S. market to hedge,” said Jeffrey Yu, head of single-stock derivatives trading at UBS AG….While the selloff began as an emerging markets story, with China’s stock market offering very little liquidity to investors due in part to technical stock-trading halts, investors have had to turn to the most liquid market to sell, which is the U.S., Mr. Yu said.

Now can we finally get a statement from the Fed saying that they no longer have any immediate plans to raise interest rates? Please?

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Fragile Global Economy Is Starting to Crack Up

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Hillary Clinton’s Big Economic Speech Abridged to 500 Words

Mother Jones

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Hillary Clinton gave her big economic speech today. As is my wont, I plowed through the transcript and excerpted only those parts that are actual policy proposals. This is sometimes a judgment call, but I think I got most of them. I didn’t include any vague prescriptions that she promised to explain in detail in later speeches.

By my count, Hillary’s laundry list includes 26 specific proposals, some with more detail than others. Not bad, even for a Clinton. So for those of you who aren’t interested in the blah blah blah, and just want the meat, here’s the Reader’s Digest version of the speech, condensed to about two minutes of reading time.

Let me begin with strong growth.

….Empower entrepreneurs with less red tape, easier access to capital, tax relief and simplification…. business tax reform to spur investment in America, closing those loopholes that reward companies for sending jobs and profits overseas….comprehensive immigration reform….infrastructure bank that can channel more public and private funds, channel those funds to finance world-class airports, railways, roads, bridges and ports….greater investments in cleaner, renewable energy right now.

….Fund the scientific and medical research that spawns innovative companies and creates entire new industries….breaking down barriers so more Americans participate more fully in the workforce — especially women….family-friendly policies….fair pay and fair scheduling, paid family leave and earned sick days, child care are essential to our competitiveness and growth.

….Beyond strong growth, we also need fair growth.

….We have to raise the minimum wage and implement President Obama’s new rules on overtime….crack down on bosses who exploit employees by misclassifying them as contractors or even steal their wages….defending and enhancing Social Security….encourage companies to share profits with their employees….reforming our tax code….Buffett Rule….closing the carried interest loophole….the decline of unions may be responsible for a third of the increase of inequality among men….we have to get serious about supporting workers.

….Every 4-year old in America should have access to high-quality preschool in the next ten years….80% of your brain is physically formed by age of three….intervention to help those often-stressed out young moms understand more about what they can do and avoid the difficulties that stand in the way of their being able to get their child off to the best start….reviving the New Markets Tax Credit and Empowerment Zones to create greater incentives to invest in poor and remote areas.

….The third key driver of income alongside strong growth and fair growth must be long-term growth.

….A new $1,500 apprenticeship tax credit….reform capital gains taxes to reward longer-term investments that create jobs more than just quick trades….Make sure stock buybacks aren’t being used only for an immediate boost in share prices….Empowering outside investors who want to build companies but discouraging “cut and run” shareholders who act more like old-school corporate raiders.

….Serious risks are emerging from institutions in the so-called “shadow banking” system….I will appoint and empower regulators who understand that Too Big To Fail is still too big a problem….ensure that no firm is too complex to manage or oversee….prosecute individuals as well as firms when they commit fraud or other criminal wrongdoing….when the government recovers money from corporations or individuals for harming the public, it should go into a separate trust fund to benefit the public.

And the obligatory paean to bipartisanship and comity:

….You know passing legislation is not the only way to drive progress. As President, I’ll use the power to convene, connect, and collaborate to build partnerships that actually get things done. Because above all, we have to break out of the poisonous partisan gridlock and focus on the long-term needs of our country.

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Hillary Clinton’s Big Economic Speech Abridged to 500 Words

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The Economic Rise Of China Is Pretty Significant

Mother Jones

This story first appeared on the TomDispatch website.

BEIJING—Seen from the Chinese capital as the Year of the Sheep starts, the malaise affecting the West seems like a mirage in a galaxy far, far away. On the other hand, the China that surrounds you looks all too solid and nothing like the embattled nation you hear about in the Western media, with its falling industrial figures, its real estate bubble, and its looming environmental disasters. Prophecies of doom notwithstanding, as the dogs of austerity and war bark madly in the distance, the Chinese caravan passes by in what President Xi Jinping calls “new normal” mode.

“Slower” economic activity still means a staggeringly impressive annual growth rate of 7 percent in what is now the globe’s leading economy. Internally, an immensely complex economic restructuring is underway as consumption overtakes investment as the main driver of economic development. At 46.7 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), the service economy has pulled ahead of manufacturing, which stands at 44 percent.

Geopolitically, Russia, India, and China have just sent a powerful message westward: they are busy fine-tuning a complex trilateral strategy for setting up a network of economic corridors the Chinese call “new silk roads” across Eurasia. Beijing is also organizing a maritime version of the same, modeled on the feats of Admiral Zheng He who, in the Ming dynasty, sailed the “western seas” seven times, commanding fleets of more than 200 vessels.

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The Economic Rise Of China Is Pretty Significant

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