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Senate Torture Report: No, Bin Laden Was Not Found Because of CIA Torture

Mother Jones

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After Osama bin Laden was killed by US special operations forces, the pro-torture CIA crowd pointed to the raid as evidence that human-rights-abusing questioning can produce essential intelligence. And this debate was revived when the film Zero Dark Thirty implied the same point. During these dust-ups, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), the chair of the Senate intelligence committee, said her committee’s years-long investigation of the CIA interrogation program showed that the agency’s use of harsh techniques did not lead it to bin Laden’s hideaway in Pakistan. The torture report she released today—that is, the 535-page executive summary of the 6,600-page full report—states bluntly that CIA torturing had nothing to do with finding bin Laden. A footnote reports that the CIA, naturally, takes issues with this and says the committee report “incorrectly characterizes the intelligence we had.” That footnote adds, “This is incorrect.”

More coverage of the CIA torture report.


“Rectal Feeding,” Threats to Children, and More: 16 Awful Abuses From the CIA Torture Report


No, Bin Laden Was Not Found Because of CIA Torture


How the CIA Spent the Last 6 Years Fighting the Release of the Torture Report


Read the Full Torture Report Here


5 Telling Dick Cheney Appearances in the CIA Torture Report


Am I a Torturer?

Here’s the blow-by-blow. After the bin Laden raid, according to the report, CIA officials, in classified briefings to the committee, said that intelligence related to the CIA’s so-called enhanced interrogation techniques was used to locate the Al Qaeda chieftain, referred to as UBL in the report. The committee says this “was inaccurate and incongruent” with the CIA’s own records. Here’s the nut graph:

CIA records indicate that: (1) the CIA had extensive reporting on bin Laden courier Abu Ahmad al-Kuwaiti (variant Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti), the UBL facilitator whose identification and tracking led to the identification of UBL’s compound and the operation that resulted in UBL’s death, prior to and independent of information from CIA detainees; (2) the most accurate information on Abu Ahmad al-Kuwaiti obtained from a CIA detainee was provided by a CIA detainee who had not yet been subjected to the CIA’s enhanced interrogation techniques; and (3) CIA detainees who were subjected to the CIA’s enhanced interrogation techniques withheld and fabricated information about Abu Ahmad al-Kuwaiti.

That’s a slam dunk. The CIA had info on the bin Laden operative who led the United States to the Abbottabad compound—but this intelligence did not come from those terrorist suspects it tortured.

The report notes that days after the raid, CIA officials said that terrorist suspects held by the agency had provided the “tip off” regarding Kuwaiti, the bin Laden courier. The committee, though, found that the “initial intelligence” and the “most valuable” information on Kuwaiti was not related to the torture program. The CIA, according to the report, had collected “significant reporting” on Kuwaiti and his close links to bin Laden prior to receiving any information in 2003 from CIA-held detainees. As early as the start of 2002, a phone number associated with Kuwaiti was under “government intelligence collection.” By monitoring this number, the report notes, US intelligence identified Kuwaiti as someone to watch.

In July 2002, the CIA slyly obtained an email address believed to be associated with Kuwaiti and within a month was tracking his email activity. That summer, the CIA received reports that originated with detainees held by other governments that Kuwaiti was associated with Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the suspected architect of the 9/11 attacks. Throughout 2002, the agency also had gathered “significant corroborative reporting” on Kuwaiti’s age, physical appearance, and family. Other reports from foreign governments indicated Kuwaiti was a courier for bin Laden. So the CIA, according to the report, had been on to him for a while before it received any info from a detainee within its own custody.

But after the bin Laden raid, the report says, CIA officials briefed the committee and “indicated that CIA detainee information—and the CIA’s enhanced interrogation techniques—played a substantial role in developing intelligence that led to the UBL operation.” This testimony, the report says, “contained significant inaccurate information.” One example: The CIA told the committee that Kuwaiti had “totally dropped off our radar in about 2002-2003 time frame after several detainees in our custody had highlighted him as a key facilitator for bin Laden.” Committee’s emphasis. Nope, the committee says, no CIA detainee had provided information related to Kuwaiti in 2002. Moreover, it notes, “the majority of the accurate intelligence acquired on Abu Ahmad al-Kuwaiti was collected outside of the CIA’s Detention and Interrogation Program, either from detainees not in CIA custody, or from other intelligence sources and methods unrelated to detainees, to include human sources and foreign partners.”

A CIA detainee named Hassan Ghul in early 2004 did tell the CIA that Kuwaiti was a “close assistant” who was likely handling “all of UBL’s needs.” He also reported that “UBL’s security apparatus would be minimal, and the the group likely lived in a house with a family somewhere in Pakistan.” Yet, according to the report, he told this to the CIA before being subjected to enhanced interrogation techniques.

The report challenges a statement then-CIA chief Leon Panetta made to Congress days after the bin Laden raid: “The detainees in the post-9/11 period flagged for us that there were individuals that provided direct support to bin Laden…and one of those identified was a courier who had the nickname Abu-Ahmad al-Kuwaiti. That was back in 2002.” Not so, the report insists. And it gets worse. At a post-raid briefing a senator—unnamed in the report—asked, “Was any of this information obtained through enhanced interrogation measures?” A CIA officer—unnamed in the report—replied, “Senator, these individuals were in our program and were subject to some form of enhanced interrogation.” The committee dryly states that the information “is not fully congruent with CIA records.” It adds that the CIA’s own records show that those CIA detainees who were tortured provided “fabricated, inconsistent, and generally unreliable information on Abu Ahmad al-Kuwaiti throughout their detention.”

The CIA subsequently provided the Senate intelligence committee with a six-page chart on detainee reporting on Kuwaiti, noting that 12 CIA detainees had linked Kuwaiti to bin Laden and that nine of them were subjected to enhanced interrogation techniques and two of those—KSM and Abu Zubaydah—were waterboarded. Another CIA document maintained that of 16 CIA detainees that had provided information on Kuwaiti, 13 did so after being subjected to torture. These documents, the committee says, were inaccurate and omitted important facts, and across several pages in the report, the committee points out a host of errors within those records.

The report essentially accuses the CIA of trying to snow the committee and the public, noting that its postraid claims were out of sync with its preraid records:

While CIA documents and testimony highlighted reporting that the CIA claimed was obtained from CIA detainees—and in some cases from CIA detainees subjected to the CIA’s enhanced interrogation techniques—the CIA internally noted that reporting from CIA detainees—specifically CIA detainees subjected to the CIA’s enhanced interrogation techniques—was insufficient, fabricated, and/or unreliable.

A footnote in the report points out that several weeks prior to the bin Laden raid, the CIA’s office of public affairs was told about the pending bin Laden operation and that it began to prepare material for release following the mission. According to a CIA document, a key task for the CIA spinners was to promote “the critical nature of detainee reporting in identifying Bin Ladin’s courier.” It seems the agency, which was tarred by the torture controversy (and those missing WMDs in Iraq), saw the raid as an opportunity to shift the narrative about its detainee and interrogation program. And CIA boosters outside the agency, including Langley alums, did the same. The report notes that former CIA director Michael Hayden went on a talk radio show two days after the raid and said, “What we got, the original lead information—and frankly it was incomplete identity information on the bin Laden couriers—began with information from CIA detainees at the black sites. And let me just leave it at that.”

Feinstein, who has long been supportive of the intelligence establishment, was not willing to leave it at that. The executive summary diplomatically casts Hayden as a fabricator. Moreover, it makes a strong case that during the bin Laden-torture debate and related controversies, the CIA misled its overseers on Capitol Hill and the public. It’s no wonder that so many champions of the agency tried to keep this summary from becoming public. They’d rather Americans watch a Hollywood movie (which the CIA consulted on) about the bin Laden mission than read this report.

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Senate Torture Report: No, Bin Laden Was Not Found Because of CIA Torture

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Obama disses Keystone XL on the Colbert Report

Obama disses Keystone XL on the Colbert Report

By on 9 Dec 2014commentsShare

President Obama appeared on The Colbert Report last night to talk health care, jaded young voters, and the recent job report. And — good news for those young voters — while Obama didn’t say whether he’d block Keystone XL, he spoke of the tar-sands pipeline in dismissive terms.

Here’s what he had to say after Colbert asked about Keystone:

[I]f we look at this objectively, we’ve got to make sure that it’s not adding to the problem of carbon and climate change, because these young people are going to have to live in a world where we already know temps are going up. And Keystone is a potential contributor of that — we have to examine that, and we have to weigh that against the amount of jobs that it’s actually going to create, which aren’t a lot.

Essentially there’s Canadian oil passing through the United States to be sold on the world market. It’s not going to push down gas prices here in the United States.

It’s good for Canada. It could create a couple of thousand jobs in the initial construction of the pipeline. But we’ve got to measure that against whether or not it is going to contribute to an overall warming of the planet that could be disastrous.

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Obama disses Keystone XL on the Colbert Report

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Watch “Emperor” Obama Take Over Hosting Duties for Colbert

Mother Jones

“You’ve taken plenty of shots at my job. I’m going to take a shot at yours.”

And with that, President Obama seized control of a special D.C. edition of “The Colbert Report” last night, leading off by taking over hosting duties for the latest installment of “The Word,” or as the president promptly renamed, “The Decree.”

Later on, the two sat down and discussed everything from the midterm elections to the nuclear launch codes. Regarding immigration reform, Colbert asked his guest, “You realize you’re an emperor now…Why did you burn the Constitution and become an emperor?”

Colbert, who will be replacing David Letterman over at the “Late Show” soon, concluded the special appearance with a suggestion that melded both immigration legislation and Keystone into one bizarre policy proposal. The president declined: “Stephen, that sounds like a ridiculous idea. But that’s why you’re where you are, and I’m where I am.”

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Watch “Emperor” Obama Take Over Hosting Duties for Colbert

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Here’s a Video of the GOP’s Next Top Obama Investigator Losing a Leg-Wrestling Match to Stephen Colbert

Mother Jones

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Next year, Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) will take over the chairmanship of the House oversight committee, replacing the current chair, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), as the GOP’s lead investigator. Chaffetz’s position comes with a lot of power—he will be able to subpoena Obama administration officials, and his committee has investigative jurisdiction over nearly every imaginable scandal, from security lapses by the Secret Service to the US Postal Service’s ongoing financial problems. Benghazi is also likely to remain a high priority for the committee under Chaffetz—despite a report released last month by the GOP-run House intelligence committee that debunked nearly every conspiracy theory about the attack.

To better familiarize our readers with the incoming chairman, here’s a video of Chaffetz losing a leg-wrestling match against comedian Stephen Colbert in 2009:

The Colbert Report
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Indecision Political Humor,The Colbert Report on Facebook

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Here’s a Video of the GOP’s Next Top Obama Investigator Losing a Leg-Wrestling Match to Stephen Colbert

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Good News from the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report

Mother Jones

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Everyone’s favorite CDC publication, the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, passes along some great news today: cigarette smoking is down. Among Americans 18 and older, only 17.8 percent now smoke cigarettes, down from 20.9 percent in 2005. What’s more, the proportion of daily smokers declined from 16.9 percent to 13.7 percent, and among daily smokers the number of cigarettes smoked also declined. By region, the highest level of smoking is found in the Midwest, followed by the South, the Northeast, and the West. Poor people smoke more than non-poor, and generally speaking, those with less education smoke more than those with more education.

In case you’re unpersuaded by all this, I’ve appended a trivial chart on the right showing the overall prevalence of smoking. It’s down. Are you persuaded now?

In any case, you’re probably not surprised by this news. So here’s something a little more interesting: it turns out the prevalence of smoking is considerably higher among the gay population than the straight population (26 percent vs. 17 percent). Is this common knowledge? Maybe, but I didn’t know it, and I sure wouldn’t have guessed it. Of course, all the gay people I know are well-educated West Coast folks, who probably have a very low rate of smoking regardless of sexual orientation. So I suppose I’m just too cloistered to have any clue about this.

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Good News from the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report

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10 Terrifying Facts From the UN’s New Climate Report

Mother Jones

This story originally appeared in Grist and is republished here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

The latest IPCC report is out, and the news is not happy.

The chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra Pachauri, called today’s report the “strongest, most robust and most comprehensive” to come out of the IPCC, which has been tracking climate change since 1988. It is “yet another wake-up call to the global community that we must act together swiftly and aggressively,” the White House said in a statement.

The report’s language is stronger than in years past: Warming is “unequivocal,” and the changes we’re seeing are pervasive, it states clearly. We must take action quickly to cut our dependence on fossil fuels, it warns. If we don’t, we’ll face “further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.”

As we explained last week, you may be experiencing déjà vu—that’s because there have been three IPCC reports released since September 2013. Today’s is the final installment in this cycle of reports; called the synthesis report, it’s intended to summarize and clarify the three that came before. All the parts together form the complete Fifth Assessment Report, or AR5, a comprehensive look at climate change of the sort that hasn’t been released since 2007.

Everyone involved hopes the research summarized within will guide political leaders and UN negotiators as they try, over the next year, to cut an emissions-reducing deal and save us all.

Though this report is breezy by IPCC standards, coming in at a mere 116 pages with a 40-page summary for policymakers, we boiled it down a bit more. Here, with some charts, are 10 key things to take away—many of them familiar from the IPCC installments that have come out over the past 13 months.

1. We humans really, truly are responsible for climate change, and ignoring that fact doesn’t make it less true. “Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history,” the report states. The atmospheric concentration of key greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—is “unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years,” the report warns, and our fossil-fuel driven economies and ever-increasing population are to blame.

IPCC

2. Climate change is already happening. Each of the past three decades has been warmer than the last, and warmer than any decade since we started keeping records. Sea levels are rising. Arctic ice cover is shrinking. Crop yields are changing—more often than not, getting smaller. It has been getting wetter, and storms and heat waves are getting more intense.

IPCC

3. …and it is going to get far worse: “Heat waves will occur more often and last longer…extreme precipitation events will become more intense and frequent in many regions. The ocean will continue to warm and acidify, and global mean sea level to rise,” the report states. If we stick to our current path, we could see 3.7 to 4.8 degrees Celsius of warming—or even more—by the end of the century.

These graphs show projected changes in sea-level rise and surface temperature given different emissions scenarios:

IPCC

4. Much of recent warming has been in the ocean. About 90 percent of the energy that has gone into the climate system since 1971 went into the ocean. That means a warmer, expanding ocean, which fuels stronger storms. It also means rising sea levels and eroding coastlines.

5. The ocean is also becoming more acidic. By taking in so much of the carbon dioxide that humans have been spitting out since the industrial revolution, the ocean has become 26 percent more acidic and its pH level is falling. Scientists think this could have widespread and severe effects on marine life—increasingly, ocean acidification is being referred to as the “other CO2 problem.”

6. Climate change will hit developing nations particularly hard, but we are all vulnerable. Climate change will make food systems more volatile, exacerbate health problems, displace people, weaken countries’ infrastructures, and fuel conflict. It will touch every area of life. Economic growth will slow as temperatures warm, new poverty traps will be created, and we’ll find that poverty cannot be eliminated without first tackling climate change.

7. Plants and animals are even more vulnerable than we are. As climates shift, entire ecosystems will be forced to move, colliding with one another. Many plants and small animals won’t be able to move quickly enough to keep up, if global warming marches forward unabated, and will go extinct.

8. We must switch mostly to renewables by 2050, and phase out fossil fuels by 2100. To avoid the most damaging and potentially irreversible impacts of climate change (e.g., from the report: “substantial species extinction, global and regional food insecurity, consequential constraints on common human activities, and limited potential for adaptation”), we’ll need to make sure our greenhouse gas emissions are cut severely by the middle of this century. We should aim for “near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived GHGs by the end of the century.”

This graph shows how much our emissions could go up or down under different emissions scenarios:

IPCC

9. We already have the answers we need to tackle climate change. We have the necessary technologies available, and economic growth will not be strongly affected if we take action, the report argues. As the cliché goes, all it takes is the will to act. But we must act in unison, the report states: “Effective mitigation will not be achieved if individual agents advance their own interests independently. Cooperative responses, including international cooperation, are therefore required to effectively mitigate GHG emissions and address other climate change issues.”

10. This dire report is decidedly conservative. The effects of climate change could be much worse than what this report presents. As Chris Mooney explains, many scientific experts say the panel errs on the side of caution. He writes:

…a new study just out in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society …charges that the IPCC is focused on avoiding what are called “type 1” errors—claiming something is happening when it really is not (a “false positive”)—rather than on avoiding “type 2” errors—not claiming something is happening when it really is (a “false negative”).

So the actual effects of climate change could be even more severe, and even stranger, than what the IPCC describes.

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10 Terrifying Facts From the UN’s New Climate Report

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Watch Anita Sarkeesian Explain Gamergate’s “Attacks on Women” and Convince Colbert He’s a Feminist

Mother Jones

Anita Sarkeesian, the feminist critic at the center of the Gamergate controversy, appeared on The Colbert Report last night to explain the sexual harassment issues rampant in the gaming world and why women aren’t going to just accept a “separate but equal” community.

“Women are perceived as threatening because we are asking for games to be more inclusive,” Sarkeesian said. “We are asking for games to acknowledge that we exist and that we love games.”

But as recent disturbing events have shown, many gamers are not pleased with Sarkeesian’s work and have been launching extremely violent messages against her and her supporters via social media. Earlier this month, Sarkeesian was forced to cancel a speaking engagement after an anonymous email threatened to stage the “deadliest mass shooting in American history” if she spoke.

Speaking to Colbert on Wednesday, she went on to reject the defense that Gamergate is actually about ethics in video game journalism.

“That is sort of a compelling way to reframe the fact that this is actually an attack on women,” she said.”Ethics in journalism is not what’s happening in any way. It’s actually men going after women in really hostile, aggressive ways. That’s what Gamergate is about. it’s about terrorizing women for being involved in this industry.”

For more a deeper dive into the Gamergate controversy, check out our excellent explainer.

Correction: A previous version of this story erroneously quoted Sarkeesian in the headline. This has since been corrected.

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Watch Anita Sarkeesian Explain Gamergate’s “Attacks on Women” and Convince Colbert He’s a Feminist

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U.N.: Hurry up on climate action or we’re screwed!

U.N.: Hurry up on climate action or we’re screwed!

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World, don’t lose heart, but you really need to hustle.

That’s the message from the United Nations as international climate delegates prepare to launch into a new round of negotiations next week aimed at cutting global greenhouse gas emissions.

The world agreed in 2009 to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.7 Fahrenheit, above preindustrial levels. But a report released Tuesday by the U.N. Environment Program reminds us that we’re not on track to meet that goal — not even close.

Even if all the pledges made to date by various governments to reduce their emissions are fulfilled, the report warns that temperature rise would still overshoot the 2-degree goal. That’s not to say it would be impossible to meet the goal, but a serious sense of urgency would be required.

The report focuses on the “emissions gap” — the difference between anticipated and needed emissions cuts. From a UNEP press release:

Even if nations meet their current climate pledges, greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 are likely to be 8 to 12 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) above the level that would provide a likely chance of remaining on the least-cost pathway.

If the gap is not closed or significantly narrowed by 2020, the door to many options to limit temperature increase to a lower target of 1.5° C will be closed, further increasing the need to rely on faster energy-efficiency improvements and biomass with carbon capture and storage.

The report authors suggest initiatives that could keep warming within 2 degrees:

Massively and urgently boost energy efficiency — that could reduce annual emissions by 2 GtCO2e by the year 2020.
Stop subsidizing fossil fuels — that could reduce emissions by 0.4 to 2 GtCO2e.
Curb releases of methane and other short-lived climate pollutants — that could reduce emissions by 0.6 to 1.1 GtCO2e.
Continue to foster the development and deployment of renewable energy — that could reduce emissions by 1 to 3 GtCO2e.
Overhaul the agricultural sector, which is directly responsible for 11 percent of the world’s emissions — that could reduce emissions by 1.1 to 4.3 GtCO2e.

If you add up the best-case scenarios using those five strategies, you get an annual emissions reduction of 12.4 gigatonnes by 2020 — more than enough to get us on track to meet the goal of limiting warming by 2 degrees Celsius.

Actually doing that, of course, is another matter altogether.


Source
The Emissions Gap Report 2013: A UNEP Synthesis Report, UNEP

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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U.N.: Hurry up on climate action or we’re screwed!

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The Dash Diet Weight Loss Solution – Marla Heller

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The Dash Diet Weight Loss Solution

2 Weeks to Drop Pounds, Boost Metabolism, and Get Healthy

Marla Heller

Genre: Health & Fitness

Price: $9.99

Publish Date: December 18, 2012

Publisher: Grand Central Publishing

Seller: Hachette Digital, Inc.


THE NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER–BASED ON THE DIET RANKED &quot;#1 BEST DIET OVERALL&quot; BY US NEWS &amp; WORLD REPORT –FOR 3 YEARS IN A ROW! The DASH diet isn't just for healthy living anymore-now it's for healthy weight loss, too. Using the key elements of the DASH (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension) diet and proven, never-before-published NIH research, bestselling author, foremost DASH dietitian and leading nutrition expert Marla Heller has created the most effective diet for quick-and lasting-weight loss. Based on the diet rated the #1 Best Overall Diet by Us News &amp; World Report , this effective and easy program includes menu plans, recipes, shopping lists, and more. Everything you need to lose weight and get healthy! With a diet rich in fruits, vegetables, low-fat and nonfat dairy, lean meats, fish and poultry, nuts, beans and seeds, heart healthy fats, and whole grains, you will drop pounds and revolutionize your health, while eating foods you love. In just 2-weeks you'll experience: Faster metabolism Lower body fat Improved strength and cardiovascular fitness Plus lower cholesterol and blood pressure without medication, without counting calories! As effective as the original DASH is for heart health, the program is now formulated for weight loss!

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The Dash Diet Weight Loss Solution – Marla Heller

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FEMA Report: Climate Change Could Increase Areas At Risk of Flood by 45%

A landmark study finds climate change could have a huge impact on the National Flood Insurance Program. Clean-up in Breezy Point following Hurricane Sandy, November 5, 2012. Bryan Smith/ZUMAPRESS.com Rising seas and increasingly severe weather are expected to increase the areas of the US at risk of floods by up to 45 percent by 2100, according to a first-of-its-kind report released by the Federal Emergency Management Agency on Wednesday. These changes could double the number of flood-prone properties covered by the National Flood Insurance Program and drastically increase the costs of floods, the report finds. The report concludes that climate change is likely to expand vastly the size and costs of the 45-year-old government flood insurance program. Like previous government reports, it anticipates that sea levels will rise an average of four feet by the end of the century. But this is what’s new: The portion of the US at risk for flooding, including coastal regions and areas along rivers, will grow between 40 and 45 percent by the end of the century. That shift will hammer the flood insurance program. Premiums paid into the program totaled $3.2 billion in 2009, but that figure could grow to $5.4 billion by 2040 and up to $11.2 billion by the year 2100, the report found. The 257-page study has been in the works for nearly five years and was finally released by FEMA after multiple inquiries from Climate Desk and Mother Jones. As of 2013, the NFIP insures 5.6 million properties. But by the end of 2100, that number could grow to as many as 11.2 million. The report attributes only 30 percent of the increased risk of flooding to population growth; 70 percent is due to climate change. FEMA designates what are known as special flood hazard areas, where there is a 1 percent risk in any given year of a major flood occurring. (They’re also known as 100-year floodplains.) If you have a federally backed mortgage on your home and it’s in a special flood hazard area, you are required by law to carry flood insurance. As of 2013, the NFIP insures 5.6 million properties. But that number could double by 2100, to as many as 11.2 million, the report found. Having to insure twice as many properties would be a big deal for the NFIP. It generally works like any other insurance program, using the premiums that policy holders pay in each year to cover losses when they occur. But the program has been walloped by major storms in the past decade. The NFIP went $16 billion in debt on Hurricane Katrina, and after Sandy will be $25 billion in the hole, a debt it may be unable repay. The report projects that the average loss on each insured property could increase as much as 90 percent by 2100. If future storm victims aren’t forced to eat their losses, taxpayers may have to cover the difference. The FEMA study is based on the assumption that sea levels will go up by four feet in the next 86 years. But a report released last year by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration noted that sea level rise could be more than six feet. Whether it’s four feet or six feet, rising seas cause shoreline erosion and recession, and create greater surge risk in the event of major storms. The FEMA report also notes that flooding around rivers will likely become worse in a warming world, due to changes in precipitation frequency and intensity. Population growth, which causes increases in paved areas and changes in runoff patterns and drainage systems, will affect the amount of flooding from rivers, the FEMA report notes. The FEMA findings paint a grim picture for an insurance program that is already debt-laden and is one of the largest fiscal liabilities for the US government. The projections for climate costs make it appear much less likely that the program will ever be fiscally sound without significant changes. The report warns that future payments from the program “may be larger than the NFIP’s current funding and borrowing structure accommodates.” Climate change has been conspicuously absent from the formulation of FEMA’s projections. But this report finds that climate change is a major driver of increased flood risk, and FEMA is expected to start considering climate change as it draws up maps highlighting areas that could face future flooding. The average price of policies would need to increase by as much as 70 percent to offset projected losses. Climate change will likely make flood insurance much more expensive for the federal government, but also for individual policyholders. Right now, a number of homeowners who get their flood insurance from the federal government pay subsidized rates. But for the program to stay solvent, the average price of policies would need to increase by as much as 70 percent to offset projected losses, according to the FEMA report. That means individual policyholders who now pay an average rate of $560 per year could have to pay as much as $952 per year by 2100. The report, which was put together by the consulting firm AECOM, states that it is intended to serve as a “scoping-level study” and is not a set of policy recommendations. The point is to “serve as the foundation for more refined analysis as the science of climate change advances.” View the original here – FEMA Report: Climate Change Could Increase Areas At Risk of Flood by 45% Related Articles How Climate Change Makes Wildfires Worse Samantha Power’s Climate Silence Methane Leaks Could Negate Climate Benefits of US Natural Gas Boom: Report

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FEMA Report: Climate Change Could Increase Areas At Risk of Flood by 45%

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