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The Interior axed climate change policies right before Christmas

This story was originally published by High Country News and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

Just before Christmas, the Interior Department quietly rescinded an array of policies designed to elevate climate change and conservation in decisions on managing public lands, waters, and wildlife. Order 3360, signed by Deputy Secretary David Bernhardt, explains that the policies were rescinded because they were “potential burdens” to energy development.

The order echoes earlier mandates from President Donald Trump and Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke to Interior’s 70,000 employees: Prioritize energy development and de-emphasize climate change and conservation. The order is another in a long string of examples of science and conservation taking a backseat to industry’s wishes at the Interior Department under Zinke.

The sweeping order, which Bernhardt signed Dec. 22., affects a department that manages a fifth of the nation’s land, 19 percent of U.S. energy supplies, and most of the water in the 12 Western states. It fulfills a high-profile executive order by Trump and a secretarial order from Zinke, both announced in March. Interior did not publicize the order but posted it on its website with other secretarial orders. The Interior Department refused to answer questions about order 3360 on Thursday. “Sorry, nobody is available for you,” Heather Swift, the department spokesperson, wrote in an email.

Environmental groups were surprised that the agency failed to tout the policy decisions. “We’ve been waiting for it. We thought they would do it with some sort of great pride,” said Nada Culver, who directs the Wilderness Society’s BLM action center.

The Bureau of Land Management last week did announce a related policy change that makes it easier for companies to develop oil and gas in core sage grouse habitats that were protected in 2015 as part of an unprecedented conservation initiative. The BLM replaced six instructional memoranda that direct field staff on how to manage 67 million acres of prime sage grouse habitat across 10 Western states. Among other things, the new instructions relieve BLM staff from the requirement that they prioritize drilling outside of prime sagebrush habitat areas.

David Hayes, President Barack Obama’s then-deputy secretary of Interior, said the policy rescissions were very significant because these policies guided the agency’s field staff in how to manage the nation’s vast resources at a time when climate change is already impacting public lands in many ways. “It would be irresponsible as land managers not to take into account these risks, such as drought, fire, invasive species, potential sea-level rise, storm surge impacts, wildlife impacts — all of which already are being felt,” Hayes said.

In his March order, Zinke directed staff to scour their agencies to find policies that hamper energy development.

A report published by the Interior Department in October outlined dozens of policy changes in the works to remove barriers to energy development. The report says that even some of the nation’s most treasured areas — including national monuments, national conservation lands and wild and scenic rivers — won’t be spared from Trump administration efforts to promote energy development.

The new order, which was effective immediately and does not require congressional approval, stems from Zinke’s March directive. It did not specify how the rescinded policies hindered energy or what policies, if any, will take their place.

Among the policies erased by the December order was the climate change chapter of the Interior Department’s manual. This chapter stated that it was the department’s policy to “adapt to the challenges posed by climate change to its mission, programs, operations, and personnel. The department will use the best available science to increase understanding of climate change impacts, inform decision-making, and coordinate an appropriate response to impacts on land, water, wildlife, cultural and tribal resources, and other assets.”

This 2012 policy required national parks and other public lands to consider climate change when developing resource management plans and when permitting various activities. It instructed them to consult the departments’ new Climate Science Centers and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives so they can be guided by the best science available. The policy responded to a 2009 executive order by Obama, which Trump rescinded in March.

Joel Clement, who was the Interior Departments top climate change official before he quit in October, was a main architect of the policy. He says it gave agencies the authority to plan for the myriad of challenges public lands face from climate change. Without the policy they no longer have clear authority. “All of these agencies will fail at their missions if they don’t plan for the impacts of climate change,” Clement said.

Another policy erased by Bernhardt’s order was a chapter added in 2015 that encouraged land managers to look beyond the small parcels of land impacted by a single project when considering mitigation. Instead, it asked them to see how mitigation efforts fit into the conservation goals for larger areas surrounding the projects. This applied to permitting various activities such as mining, drilling for oil, or building a solar power plant. The BLM, National Park Service, or Fish and Wildlife Service would require the company to first avoid and minimize any impacts to natural resources. If impacts were unavoidable, a company would have to “compensate” by designing a mitigation project that would have to reflect broader conservation goals. For instance, if they had to fill in a wetland or build a road through sagebrush habitat, they’d have to invest in restoration projects that replaced the habitat lost.

Hayes said traditionally land managers only looked at the areas impacted by the project or perhaps inside the borders of their own park or refuge. But because climate change is impacting resources across large regions, it became important to start managing across jurisdictional boundaries. The department set up eight regional Climate Science Centers and 22 Landscape Conservation Cooperatives to help land managers study how the broad impacts of climate change should impact their work. (The Trump administration has proposed slashing funding the Climate Science Centers and eliminating the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, but so far Congress has continued to fund both.)

The new order also rescinded BLM’s 2016 mitigation manual and mitigation handbook. These policies guidelines built on the principles of the Interior Department’s mitigation policy and were much more detailed and specific to the kinds of projects BLM authorizes. The handbook both describes how to assess the impacts projects will have on natural resources and outlines how to devise mitigation projects to offset those impacts. BLM is the agency that manages the nation’s energy resources on public lands, including those overseen by the Forest Service.

The agencies are still legally required under the National Environmental Policy Act to mitigate the harmful effects of development and consider climate change. Now they’ve been told not to let climate change considerations or mitigation burden energy development. And they have no guidebook to help them navigate these competing mandates. That confusion could leave the door open for a lot of lawsuits. “That takes you down a very dangerous road for other resources and uses of public lands,” Culver said. “I think it’s going to make the situation worse both for the resources on the ground and for whatever projects they approve.”

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The Interior axed climate change policies right before Christmas

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5 Fall Flowers to Plant This Year for Autumn and Winter Beauty

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5 Fall Flowers to Plant This Year for Autumn and Winter Beauty

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Frackers are flooding the atmosphere with climate-warming methane

Pee-ew!

Frackers are flooding the atmosphere with climate-warming methane

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The free pass that frackers and natural-gas handlers have gotten on their climate-changing methane emissions is really starting to stink to high hell.

We told you in February about the results of a meta-analysis of 20 years worth of scientific studies, which concluded that the EPA underestimates the natural-gas industry’s climate impacts by 25 to 75 percent, due to methane leakage from its gas drilling operations and pipelines. Methane, the main component of natural gas, is a potent greenhouse gas.

Two scientific studies published in the past month reveal that the problem is far worse than that.

For a paper published last week in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, researchers flew aircraft over a heavily fracked region in northeastern Colorado and took air samples. After accounting for pollution produced by landfills, water treatment, and cattle operations, the scientists concluded that emissions from drilling operations were “close to three times higher than an hourly emission estimate” published by the EPA.

Not only that, but cancer-causing benzene emissions were found to be seven times higher than the EPA’s estimates, while emissions of some smog-forming chemicals were found to be double the EPA’s estimates.

“These discrepancies are substantial,” said NOAA researcher Gabrielle Petron, one of the authors of the paper. “Emission estimates or ‘inventories’ are the primary tool that policy makers and regulators use to evaluate air quality and climate impacts.”

The findings from Colorado were published less than a month after the results of similar research from Pennsylvania, at the heavily fracked Marcellus Shale formation, were published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Here’s how the L.A. Times summed up those findings at the time:

Researchers flew their plane about a kilometer above a 2,800 square kilometer area in southwestern Pennsylvania that included several active natural gas wells. Over a two-day period in June 2012, they detected 2 grams to 14 grams of methane per second per square kilometer over the entire area. The EPA’s estimate for the area is 2.3 grams to 4.6 grams of methane per second per square kilometer.

Since their upper-end measurements were so much higher than the EPA’s estimates, the researchers attempted to follow the methane plumes back to their sources, said Paul Shepson, an atmospheric chemist at Purdue University who helped lead the study. In some cases, they were able to quantify emissions from individual wells.

The Obama administration recently started — belatedly – trying to figure out how to rein in methane emissions. Meanwhile, Colorado and other states have introduced rules designed to clamp down on methane pollution.

These two new studies help reveal just how much hard work lies ahead — and how under-regulated the natural gas industry has been so far.


Source
A new look at methane and non-methane hydrocarbon emissions from oil and natural gas operations in the Colorado Denver-Julesburg Basin, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Airborne measurements confirm leaks from oil and gas operations, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences
EPA drastically underestimates methane released at drilling sites, Los Angeles Times
Toward a better understanding and quantification of methane emissions from shale gas development, PNAS

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Frackers are flooding the atmosphere with climate-warming methane

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13 Surprising Uses for Honey

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13 Surprising Uses for Honey

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We’re Still at War: Photo of the Day for October 7, 2013

Mother Jones

US Army Lt. Col. James Deore of Willis, Texas, watches the 4th Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division command team leave Nangalam Base, Sept. 15. Deore serves as commander, 3rd Squadron, 89th Cavalry Regiment. 3rd Squadron is at Nangalam to support their Afghan counterparts in securing a route to the Chapa Dara district center. US Army photo by Sgt. 1st Class E. L. Craig.

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We’re Still at War: Photo of the Day for October 7, 2013

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Here’s a Kinda Sorta Map of All the Nearby Earthlike Planets

Mother Jones

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Here’s a cool graphic from New Scientist with their best estimate of how many habitable planets there might be in the galaxy. They started with the 3,588 planets discovered by the Kepler space telescope and then pared this back to only smallish planets in the “habitable zone”—not too near their star to boil over and not too far away to be iceballs. That got them down to 51 planets. But that only counts the planets we could see because our view from Earth was directly on their ecliptic. Extrapolating to all the rest produces 22,500 Earthlike planets. And since Kepler only covered 0.28 percent of the sky and only looked out 3,000 light years, extrapolating yet again produces a final estimate of 15-30 billion possibly Earthlike planets.

That’s too many to show, so the picture below is a guesstimate of all the Earthlike planets “visible with a good pair of binoculars on a dark night.” The grid in the lower right is the area of the sky mapped by the Kepler telescope. The rest is extrapolation. It probably doesn’t mean much, but it’s kind of a pretty picture.

But if there are really that many planets, where are all the people?

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Here’s a Kinda Sorta Map of All the Nearby Earthlike Planets

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ExxonMobil company charged with fracking-related crimes

ExxonMobil company charged with fracking-related crimes

ExxonMobil subsidiary XTO Energy is being prosecuted for alleged environmental crimes after it spilled fracking wastewater into a Pennsylvania river in 2010.

The company’s response? It claims the criminal charges could harm the environment.

We told you about this spill in July — that’s when the company agreed to pay a $100,000 federal fine for spilling 57,000 gallons of contaminated fluids out of sloppily maintained tanks in Penn Township and into a tributary of the Susquehanna River. It also agreed to spend $20 million to get its frackwater treatment and disposal facilities up to scratch in Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

Following a grand jury investigation, Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane’s office announced this week that XTO was also being charged with five counts of violating Pennsylvania law:

The grand jury found that XTO hired a company to recycle waste water at the Marquardt site from Nov. 4, 2010 through Nov. 11, 2010. After that one-week period, XTO directed that company to remove their processing equipment from the site and transport it to another XTO well site in West Virginia. However, XTO allegedly continued to transport and store gas well waste water at the Marquardt site despite not having the proper equipment on site to safely store or process it.

Prosecuting fracking companies when they piss their toxic waste all over nature would seem to be a good way of encouraging them to be better environmental stewards. But XTO begs to differ — because every day is opposite day in Frack Land.

“Charging XTO under these circumstances could discourage good environmental practices, such as recycling,” XTO said in a statement responding to the charges.

Oh, do tell us more, XTO. We can’t wait to hear you explain that logic.

“Criminalizing a small recycling spill sends the wrong environmental and legal message,” the company said. “The action tells oil and gas operators that setting up infrastructure to recycle produced water exposes them to the risk of significant legal and financial penalties should a small release occur.”

That snap you just heard was your synapses collapsing in the face of Orwellian gibberish.

XTO Energy

XTO Energy operates through a large swath of Pennsylvania.

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.Find this article interesting? Donate now to support our work.Read more: Business & Technology

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Report: 38,600 Green Jobs Announced in Second Quarter

Fifty-eight clean energy and clean transportation projects were announced in the second quarter of 2013, including a wind power transmission project in Missouri and Kansas.

The clean energy and clean transportation sectors continued to create jobs during the second quarter of this year, according to a recent report published by Environmental Entrepreneurs (E2), a community of business leaders who promote environmental policies that also benefit the economy. The report states that across the country, 58 clean energy and clean transportation projects were announced, which could lead to as many as 38,600 new jobs, a number slightly higher than that reported during the second quarter of last year.

These new jobs come from a variety of areas, including renewable energy, public transportation, electricity grid improvements and energy efficiency. Renewable energy jobs make up the greatest number with more than 13,300, and these projects include solar, wind, biomass and other energy sources.

“Clean energy jobs are alive, well and growing,” said Judith Albert, executive director of E2, in a press release. “Smart policies like renewable energy standards at the state level, coupled with federal policies like President Obama’s climate change initiative, promise to keep that growth going.”

Some states made notable achievements with their project announcements, including Missouri and Kansas, which made the top 10 list of states to announce clean energy projects for the first time. These two states will be involved in a transmission upgrade project that will transmit more than 3,500 megawatts of wind energy east to other states. For the first time, Hawaii and Alaska were also included in the top 10 states to announce clean energy projects.

Maryland announced an expansion to the existing light-rail system in Baltimore, which will create many new construction jobs. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Maryland, which placed third on the list, announced a $2.6 billion expansion to Baltimore’s light-rail system. The improvements will include 20 new stations, reduce carbon emissions over time and create more than 4,200 construction jobs.

California announced 12 clean energy and transportation projects, the most of any state, which could lead to as many as 9,000 jobs.

To learn more about these and other clean energy projects, as well as to see a state-by-state breakdown of projects, visit cleanenergyworksforus.org.

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Report: 38,600 Green Jobs Announced in Second Quarter

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Is Global Warming Really Slowing Down?

Mother Jones

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Chances are you’ve heard people say that global warming has “stopped,” “paused,” or hit a “slowdown.” It’s a favorite talking point of political conservatives like Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who recently declared that there has been “no recorded warming since 1998.” Climate skeptics frequently use these arguments to cast doubt on climate science and to downplay the urgency of addressing global warming. Last year, for instance, Fox News pronounced global warming “over.”

Scientists disagree. It’s true that they also acknowledge the slowdown: A new paper just out in the prestigious journal Nature, for instance, cites the “hiatus in global warming” and seeks to explain it with reference to changes in the tropical Pacific. The recently leaked Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, too, cites an “observed reduction in surface warming.” But scientists say the slowdown is only temporary—a result of naturally induced climate variability that will soon tip back in the other direction—and that more human-caused global warming is on the way.

So who’s right? Here’s what you need to know about the slowdown, why it’s happening, and why the threat of global warming is still very real:

Have temperatures really stopped rising? Not exactly. First, “global warming” never meant that temperatures increase relentlessly, year after year—it’s more complicated than that.

Globally averaged surface temperatures, by decade (includes combined land and sea surface temperatures) World Meteorological Organization

“There’s always more than one thing going on in the climate system,” explains climate researcher Jerry Meehl of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. There are really hot years and there are less hot years. But since the 1950s, each successive decade has been hotter than the last, according to the World Meteorological Organization, and the 2000s were the warmest decade “since the start of modern measurements in 1850.”

Okay, so it’s clearly misleading to say the planet has stopped warming. What’s actually going on? It’s pretty nuanced: According to the leaked IPCC draft report, the rate of warming at the planet’s surface (technically, the “global mean surface temperature”) is lower over the last 15 years, kind of like a car easing off the accelerator. The draft states that the rate of surface warming from 1998-2012 was 0.05 degrees Celsius per decade. But over the entire period from 1951 to 2012, it was 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade. (Keep in mind that not every aspect of the climate system necessarily reflects this “slowdown”: Arctic sea ice, for instance, hit a record low in 2007 and then another record low in 2012.)

How significant is the surface temperature slowdown in the context of global warming as a whole? The slowdown is certainly big enough to measure—or else we wouldn’t be discussing it—but not a huge deal in the context of the climate system. That’s because surface temperature itself, while a useful measurement, only captures a small part of what’s actually happening to the planet.

Visualization of where excess heat trapped within the climate system ends up Skeptical Science/Wikimedia Commons

At present, the Earth has an “energy imbalance“—because of heat-trapping greenhouse gases, more heat is arriving from the sun than is escaping back into space again—and that heat simply has to go somewhere. The question is where. When people think about global warming, they often think about air temperature—where the slowdown is most pronounced—but the truth is that only a tiny percentage of the excess heat actually ends up in the atmosphere. The biggest heat “sink,” by far, is the world ocean. Ninety-three percent of the planet’s excess energy gets swallowed up by the blue, according to the IPCC.

Other repositories of heat—glaciers, ice sheets, the land, the atmosphere—all play a much smaller role. So if one of these changes a little, that doesn’t shift the big picture much. “What is being talked about is a small fraction of the energy changing a bit,” explains Michael MacCracken, chief scientist at the Climate Institute and a former Clinton administration climate science official.

The increase in global ocean heat content from 1955-2010, from Levitus et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 2012. S. Levitus.

Indeed, the oceans—the elephant in the climate system, so to speak—are still warming up. Recent data on the warming of the ocean, published by oceanographer Sydney Levitus of the University of Maryland and his colleagues, suggest an increase in heat content in both the surface layer and also between 700-2,000 meters of depth. “The important thing in terms of climate change is that the world ocean has continued to store heat,” says Levitus. The amount of heat, by the way, is staggering: If the heat stored in the oceans from 1955 to 2010 were all to suddenly go to the atmosphere (which, thankfully, would never happen), Levitus and his colleagues estimate that would translate into a 65-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase!

So what is causing the surface temperature slowdown? Scientists point to multiple causes, including more heat going into the deeper oceans, a recent minimum in solar activity, and more volcanic activity. All of these phenomena could contribute to a temporary slowdown in global warming. “It may very well be that the best explanation is that there is some combination of things that has led to this slowdown,” explains Anthony Broccoli, a climate researcher at Rutgers University.

What is the role of the Pacific Ocean? Perhaps the leading explanation for the slowdown is that the oceans, and particularly the vast Pacific, are storing more heat at depth. That’s the upshot of the new Nature study, and also much other recent work. “Global warming is alive and well,” explains NCAR researcher Kevin Trenberth, “but about 30 percent of the heat is going deeper into the ocean.”

Indeed, Trenberth and climate modeler Jerry Meehl of NCAR recently published a paper that used a climate modeling approach to study global warming “hiatus decades.” They found that in their simulation, such periods not only occur, but when they do, the deep ocean warms up more than either the ocean’s upper layer, or surface air temperatures.

The Pacific Ocean showing La Niña-like conditions in 2007, featuring cooler tropical surface waters. NASA Earth Observatory/Wikimedia Commons

Scientists think they understand the mechanism here: It’s a slow and naturally occurring fluctuation that’s sometimes called the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. In one phase of the oscillation, La Niña-like conditions exist in the Pacific, as cool deep water rises to the ocean surface, displacing warmer surface waters, which in turn get buried deeper in the ocean. This process—sometimes called “upwelling”—warms the deep ocean, but simultaneously cools the overlying atmosphere.

In other words, the world’s oceans keep getting warmer, but a temporary cooling of the surface of the Pacific is constraining global surface temperatures—for the time being, anyway.

“You might think of the atmosphere as the tail, and the ocean being the dog, as far as heat is concerned,” explains Rutgers’ Broccoli. “Although the tail may wag around a little, what it’s really doing is following the dog.”

What about volcanoes? Scientists seem increasingly convinced that the oceans are the chief factor behind the slowdown. But there may be other contributing causes as well. One of them is volcanoes—smaller, tropical volcanoes in particular.

The eruption of the volcano Tavurvur in Papua New Guinea in 2009. Small tropical volcanic eruptions are probably one factor behind the recent global warming slowdown. Taro Taylor/Wikimedia Commons

It has long been known that dramatic volcanic eruptions, like that of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991, have a global cooling effect. They do this by injecting sulfur particles, often called sulfate aerosols, directly into the stratosphere, where they reflect sunlight away from the planet. “Volcanoes are basically attenuating the light between you and the sun,” explains Susan Solomon, a former IPCC co-chair and a climate researcher at MIT.

What’s new is the finding that smaller volcanoes, cumulatively, can have a significant influence on global temperatures. In a 2011 paper in Science, Solomon and her colleagues found that smaller volcanic activity has ticked up recently, and is “reducing the recent global warming that would otherwise have occurred.”

“What I think is very clear is that there has been a big increase in the aerosol loading of the stratosphere from volcanoes that we did not think were energetic or explosive enough,” says Solomon. She doesn’t think that’s enough to explain the slowdown in its entirety, but she does see it as a contributing factor.

What about the sun? And water vapor? At least two more possible contributing factors also arise in scientific conversation. There’s the role of the sun: It too goes through cycles, and from 2005 to 2010, there was “an unusually long solar minimum,” Broccoli says. That may have also lessened global warming a bit. Finally, for reasons that scientists don’t yet understand, the stratosphere seems to have contained less water vapor in the 2000s than it did during the 1990s. Water vapor enhances the greenhouse effect—like carbon dioxide, it’s a greenhouse gas.

Does all of this mean that climate models are wrong? One leading skeptic charge is that the global warming slowdown undermines our trust in the climate models that researchers use to project future temperatures—after all, skeptics say, the models missed the slowdown. And it’s true that climate models have not always adequately included some of the factors discussed above, many of which are naturally occurring and hard to predict. Take volcanoes, for instance. “We don’t try to model volcanoes, we observe them,” Solomon says. “That’s not something you try to predict, ’cause it’s not predictable.”

However, scientists are constantly updating their models based on new data—and one upshot of the new Nature paper is that if recent trends in the Pacific are properly taken into account, climate models can capture the global warming slowdown.

What about claims that the climate is less sensitive than we thought to greenhouse gas emissions? Climate sensitivity” is a somewhat odd measure—it refers to the amount of warming that would occur once the planet adjusts to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Various estimates and ranges are often given for the climate sensitivity, and in the leaked IPCC draft report, it is from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius. The lower end of the range was adjusted downwards in the draft report, based on new research—but as of now, most scientists don’t think that the slowdown is any indication that the climate system is less sensitive to human influence than previously thought. Rather, they think the slowdown is the result of temporary, natural variations that may soon subside.

“I don’t think we’ve seen anything that represents a paradigm shift in terms of our understanding of climate sensitivity,” Broccoli says.

Does this mean I can worry less about global warming? That’s probably not a good idea. If anything, the fact that the most cited causes of the slowdown are thought to be natural suggests that they’ll end eventually—whereupon global warming will snap back again, and perhaps more intensely than before. After all, the major non-natural factor in the system, human greenhouse gas emissions, will still be there. Or as the new Nature paper puts it: “the recent cooling of the tropical Pacific and hence the current hiatus are probably due to natural internal variability…If so, the hiatus is temporary, and global warming will return when the tropical Pacific swings back to a warm state.”

The IPCC, in its leaked report, acknowledges the global warming slowdown and also cites a 95 percent probability that humans are causing global warming. If the world’s definitive source on climate science doesn’t see any contradiction there…then you probably shouldn’t either.

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Is Global Warming Really Slowing Down?

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John Boehner Is Basically Running a Summer Camp for 3rd-Graders

Mother Jones

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Robert Costa’s behind-the-scenes look at the Republican House leadership is interesting primarily for the way it shows how John Boehner deals with his caucus these days. In a nutshell, he has to treat them like very small, very volatile children who can’t be reasoned with and have to be constantly cajoled along with promises of treats somewhere down the road. Like this:

Members were also buzzing about the leadership’s emerging strategy for the autumn talks. Sources tell me the House GOP will probably avoid using a shutdown as leverage and instead use the debt limit and sequester fights as areas for potential legislative trades. Negotiations over increasing the debt limit have frequently been used to wring concessions out of the administration, so there may be movement in that direction: Delay Obamacare in exchange for an increased debt limit. As members huddled and talked through scenarios, leadership aides reminded them that since the House GOP retreat in Williamsburg, Va., earlier this year, the plan has been to end the year with a debt-limit chess game, and not a messy continuing-resolution impasse. But the aides didn’t press too hard. As Boehner knows all too well from past struggles, it often takes only 20 to 30 irritated Republicans to destroy his best-laid plans.

This is, of course, crazy. Boehner is stringing them along with a fairy tale about how a government shutdown would be messy and unwinnable in September, but somehow a hostage crisis with a threatened debt default in November will go swimmingly. So eat your vegetables, kids, and we’ll all have ice cream cones later! This despite the fact that a debt ceiling crisis is worse than a budget showdown and far less likely to produce any kind of concessions. I suspect Boehner knows this perfectly well, but figures he’ll just have to cross that bridge when he comes to it.

As for delaying Obamacare in exchange for a debt ceiling increase, Boehner must know that this is a fantasy. But the kids are insisting that the Easter Bunny is too real, and I guess Dad knows there’s no point in trying to convince them otherwise. All he can do is hope that when the time comes, maybe they can be bought off with some other shiny bauble.

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John Boehner Is Basically Running a Summer Camp for 3rd-Graders

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