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Iraq Delusion Syndrome Is Alive and Well

Mother Jones

Max Boot writes today that over the past couple of years, Iraq has spiraled ever downward into outright anarchy and civil war:

Contrast that with Afghanistan, which I visited last week. While violence, corruption, drug production and government dysfunction remain very real problems in what is still one of the world’s poorest countries, Afghanistan is making real progress. Kabul is bustling and, notwithstanding some high-profile Taliban attacks, far safer than Baghdad….Even more impressive, the security forces managed with virtually no coalition presence on the ground to secure the April 5 presidential election despite Taliban attempts to disrupt it.

….Just a few years ago, Iraq appeared to be in much better shape: President Obama bragged on Dec. 14, 2011, that “we’re leaving behind a sovereign, stable and self-reliant Iraq.” In hindsight, however, it is obvious that Iraq began to unravel the minute the last U.S. troops left.

….There is an important lesson to be learned here: It’s vitally important to keep a substantial commitment of U.S. troops in Afghanistan after this year. Military commanders are asking for at least 10,000 personnel, and if that request isn’t granted by the White House (as leaks suggest it may not be), the odds will increase that Afghanistan, like Iraq, will descend into a civil war that undoes everything U.S. troops sacrificed so much to achieve.

I should say at the outset that I don’t necessarily oppose a long-term commitment of a small US peacekeeping force to Afghanistan. Fifteen years after the Kosovo war, NATO still has several thousand troops there, about a thousand of which are American. That’s how long this stuff takes sometimes.

That said, I’m endlessly flummoxed by the attitude of guys like Boot. After ten years—ten years!—of postwar “peacekeeping” in Iraq, does he still seriously think that keeping a few thousand American advisors in Baghdad for yet another few years would have made a serious difference there? In Kosovo there was a peace to keep. It was fragile, sure, but it was there. In Iraq it wasn’t. The ethnic fault lines hadn’t changed a whit, and American influence over Nouri al-Maliki had shrunk to virtually nothing. We had spent a decade trying to change the fundamentals of Iraqi politics and we couldn’t do it. An endless succession of counterterrorism initiatives didn’t do it; hundreds of billions of dollars in civil aid didn’t do it; and despite some mythologizing to the contrary, the surge didn’t do it either. The truth is that we couldn’t even make a dent. What sort of grand delusion would persuade anyone that yet another decade might do the trick?

Maybe things are different in Afghanistan. Tribal conflicts are different from sectarian ones. The Taliban is a different kind of enemy than al-Qaeda. Afghanistan’s likely next leader will almost certainly be more pro-American than Hamid Karzai. And strategically, Afghanistan plays a different role than Iraq ever did.

But Iraq? In 2003, maybe it was reasonable to think that the US could not just topple a dictator, but change the culture of a country. We can argue about that forever. But to still believe that in 2014? That’s the stuff of dreamland. Why are there still people around who continue to cling to this fantasy?

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Iraq Delusion Syndrome Is Alive and Well

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WATCH: Is This Man the Greenest Governor in America?

green4us

If Jay Inslee succeeds in his ambitious climate and energy goals, the impacts will extend far beyond Washington state. When Jay Inslee was elected governor of the state of Washington in November of 2012, climate campaigners rejoiced. As a congressman, Inslee had a top-tier environmental record, and not just that: He knew climate and clean energy issues inside-out. The co-author of the 2007 book entitled Apollo’s Fire: Igniting America’s Clean Energy Economy, he also worked closely on the 2009 passage of cap-and-trade legislation in the US House of Representatives and was a co-founder of the House’s Sustainable Energy Caucus. No wonder that upon his election in Washington, the League of Conservation Voters declared that Inslee was poised to become “the greenest governor in the country.” Sure enough, Inslee’s term got off to a great start: Last October, he joined the governors of Oregon and California and the Premier of British Columbia in endorsing the Pacific Coast Action Plan on Climate and Energy which pledges that those states (or, in BC’s case, that province) will set a consistent price or cap on carbon dioxide emissions (something California and British Columbia have already done), adopt low-carbon fuel standards, and more. But there’s just one problem: Shortly after Inslee’s election, two Democrats elected to caucus with the Republican minority in the Washington state senate, thus thwarting what otherwise would have been a Democratic majority in both houses. Instead of holding a 26-23 majority in the Senate, Democrats instead became a de facto 25-24 minority. And that razor-thin edge in the Washington state Senate is currently blocking Inslee from achieving many of his objectives. The partisan tension became apparent with Washington state’s Climate Legislative and Executive Workgroup, or CLEW, a bipartisan panel composed of two Republican and two Democratic legislators, along with Inslee as a non-voting member. Their task was to recommend a set of policies that would let Washington state adhere to greenhouse gas emissions goals that had been enacted in 2008: a reduction to 1990 emissions levels by 2020, then 25 percent below those levels by 2035, and finally, fifty percent below by 2050. The workgroup convened sessions and public deliberations around the state—but reached no bipartisan consensus. “We had over 900 citizens come out speaking overwhelmingly in favor of climate action, and close to 10,000 comments,” says Becky Kelley, deputy director of the Washington Environmental Council. “So, evidence that people really are calling for action.” Yet the Democrats and Republicans on the working group could not find common ground. They issued two separate reports, with the Democrats and Inslee endorsing strong climate action and the Republicans suggesting a variety of options, but not a central policy to cap greenhouse gas emissions, citing a “currently insufficient analysis of costs.” There has been more friction on the issue of a proposed low carbon fuel standard. In a January 2014 letter, Inslee charged Republican State Senator Curtis King, who co-chairs the Transportation Committee, with having misrepresented the governor’s policy goals by incorrectly labeling the standard a “tax.” In fact, the idea is to require a gradual reduction in the carbon content of fuels through a variety of means, ranging from blending in biofuels to encouraging more electric vehicles. “There is no element of a clean fuels standard that could in any way be called a ‘tax,’” wrote Inslee, later adding that a standard “would include cost containment measures to ensure that fuel prices are not significantly affected.” King responded by asking Inslee to “categorically deny” any intention to impose a fuel standard by executive action, in effect bypassing the legislature. King later charged that Inslee “refuses” to take this option off the table. And even as Inslee faces Republican resistance at home, his climate action partners may be growing a little impatient. British Columbians, for instance, have already put a price on carbon through a carbon tax, and are waiting for their southern ally to catch up to them. In the meantime, there are frequent charges that drivers who go across the border into Washington to gas up are partially undermining the tax’s effectiveness, and at least some evidence that this is happening, at least to a modest extent. All of which underscores that if Washington acts strongly on climate, the impact will extend far beyond Washington. For the state will be strengthening and reinforcing what California and British Columbia have already done, and the more these Pacific coast states are unified, the more the United States and even the world will have to take notice. “The sense is that if the west coast as a bloc acts, if we’ve got real climate policy from BC to Baja, that’s the world’s fifth largest economy,” says Kelly of the Washington Environmental Council. In the meantime, though, Inslee’s position within his state is much like that of President Barack Obama nationally, observes David Roberts of Grist magazine. “He wants to act, but he’s got no Republicans in the legislature on his side,” says Roberts, “so if he gets anything done, it’s going to be through executive powers.” So what happens next? Eric de Place, policy director of the Sightline Institute, a Seattle-based environmental think tank, thinks that if gridlock persists beyond 2014, there’s a chance that a citizen-led ballot initiative in Washington state could allow the public to vote directly on how to curb carbon emissions. Before, that, though, he thinks that Inslee may ultimately try to opt for a policy, like a carbon tax, that might be made palatable to state Republicans: The tax could be designed so that the revenue that it brings in would go towards other state budget shortfalls, such as in the transportation sector and in education. In his inaugural address as governor, Inslee declared that on leading the nation in green policy, “It is clear to me that we are the right state, at the right time, with the right people.” But now, that delicate balance may have shifted. “I’m certain the governor feels that not enough is getting done on climate action,” says Eric de Place of the Sightline Institute. The question is what Inslee plans to do about it. Image: Joe Mabel/Wikimedia Commons

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WATCH: Is This Man the Greenest Governor in America?

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WATCH: Is This Man the Greenest Governor in America?

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Reminder of the Day: When It Comes to Long-Term Spending, It’s All Health Care, Baby

Mother Jones

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With the budget crisis now on its way to resolution, it’s worth reminding everyone that, in fact, the federal budget isn’t really in bad shape. As Ryan Cooper of the Washington Monthly notes this morning, long-term predictions of doom are essentially based on one thing: the rising cost of health care:

The CBO’s model has a factor which assumes that health care costs will continue to grow much faster than the economy forever—which means that if we get health care cost growth under control, our deficit “problem” will vanish entirely.

The conservative reply is that the way to get health care costs under control is to simply have less health care. We must “reform” entitlements; meaning raise the Medicare retirement age, cut Medicaid, etc. We can’t afford to be generous, and some people are just going to have to go endure hardship or we’re going to bankrupt the state.

But as the Monthly has long shown, this is nonsense. In fact, the United States’ world-record health care costs are driven by a combination of policy factors, both on the private and the government side….”Centrist” elites don’t seem to think that something counts as reform unless it’s punishing a poor person somewhere, but the real action is in the policy design. Health care is expensive because of inefficiency, monopoly politics, lack of research, and interest group lobbying, not because Medicare is too generous. In fact, health care cost growth has slowed considerably since the passage of Obamacare, so if the administration manages to fix its IT disaster we could be in good shape already.

Yep. The chart below shows federal spending through 2008 in order to illustrate historical trends clearly without the spike of the Great Recession. As you can see, domestic spending (“Other”) is declining; interest expense is declining; defense spending is declining; and Social Security spending is flat. It will increase a bit over the next few decades, but only by a point or two of GDP.

And then there’s Medicare, which is increasing. But Medicare is increasing because (a) the population is aging, and (b) overall health care costs are rising. We can’t do anything about aging, which means that essentially our entire long-term budget problem is caused by rising health care costs. That’s it. If you’re actually serious about this stuff, you’ll spend essentially 100 percent of your time on policy proposals designed to reduce America’s insanely high health care costs. Obamacare is a start, but there’s still a lot more to be done.

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Reminder of the Day: When It Comes to Long-Term Spending, It’s All Health Care, Baby

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21 Crazy Facts About Food Waste In America

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21 Crazy Facts About Food Waste In America

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The American Public Understands Obama’s Position on Syria. They Just Disagree With It.

Mother Jones

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Greg Sargent notes today the results of a new CNN poll: 82 percent of Americans believe that Bashar al-Assad launched a chemical weapons attack against his own people. Nonetheless, 59 percent are opposed to U.S. military action against Syria:

What this underscores, again, is that the case against Assad has already been made successfully, and that it isn’t enough. The White House has yet to persuade Americans to accept the underlying rationale behind strikes — that they would deter further attacks, or that the potential upsides of intervening, whatever they are, outweigh the potential risks.

I think that’s right. It’s not that Obama’s case is “muddled” or “weak,” or that people aren’t paying attention. They know what Assad has done, and they know why Obama wants to launch air strikes against him. They just don’t agree. This means that if Obama wants to win over public opinion, a more robust version of his current argument probably will move the needle only a little bit. He needs something different.

However, I’d also draw your attention to this:

The American public may be against air strikes, but generally speaking, they don’t really seem to care much. This is both good news and bad for Obama. The good news is that this means most Democrats won’t punish their representatives for voting for the war. The bad news is that most Republicans won’t punish them for voting against it. The other 42 percent say they might, though frankly I kind of doubt it. Still, I’d sure like to see some crosstabs that tell us the partisan makeup of the 31 percent who are more likely to vote for their representative if they’re against a military strike.

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The American Public Understands Obama’s Position on Syria. They Just Disagree With It.

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LEGO Reveals a Female Scientist Minifigure

Image: LEGO

It is the summer of lady scientist toys, it seems. Just a few weeks ago Barbie released their “Mars Explorer” doll. And today LEGO unleashed their female scientist block figurine.

Maia Weinstock was there for the release of the toy. She writes, at Scientific American’s Guest Blog:

Today is release day for Minifigure Series 11, and I am here for the Scientist.

Finding her will take a bit of doing, but I’ve done my homework. Each of the Kelly green pouches looks the same, so most customers will simply grope the bags and try to guess which fig lurks inside. Thanks to advanced scouting from fellow adult fans of LEGO, however, I know precisely what to feel for—two tiny Erlenmeyer flasks—as well as what hidden code to look for on the backs of the packages.

Weinstock hits gold on her first bag, unveiling the tiny block lady holding two little flasks and boasting a sly grin. This isn’t the first time LEGO has made a scientist, but often they’re steeped in “nerdy male mad scientist” imagery. There is actually a “Crazy Scientist” with the wild hair. The Computer Programmer dude actually has broken glasses. Very few of them have been women. Weinstock writes:

One collectible minifig is a surgeon, complete with mask, syringe, and X-ray slide. If you consider wild animal care a branch of science, then you can include the Zookeeper among LEGO’s STEM professionals. Several generic female “scientists” were also released as part of the FIRST LEGO League, but they and their male partners were scientists in name only; their clothes had no markings, nor did they carry any scientific instruments.

Lego describes the Scientist this way:

I wonder what will happen if I put THIS together with THAT…”

The brilliant Scientist’s specialty is finding new and interesting ways to combine things together. She’ll spend all night in her lab analyzing how to connect bricks of different sizes and shapes (she won the coveted Nobrick Prize for her discovery of the theoretical System/DUPLO® Interface!), or how to mix two colors in one element.

Thanks to the Scientist’s tireless research, Minifigures that have misplaced their legs can now attach new pieces to let them swim like fish, slither like snakes, and stomp around like robots. Her studies of a certain outer dimension have even perfected a method for swapping body parts at will!

Weinstock hopes there will be more women figurines with more specific specialties, but so far Lego is doing better than Mattel, which sent Mars Explorer Barbie to space in a pink space suit without gloves.

More from Smithsonian.com:

Celebrating 80 Years of LEGO
Lego Faces Are Getting Angrier

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LEGO Reveals a Female Scientist Minifigure

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Steve King insults climate scientists and religious Americans simultaneously

Steve King insults climate scientists and religious Americans simultaneously

Gage Skidmore

Steve King knows that cantaloupes don’t grow in seawater.

Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) has, shall we say, a vivid oratorical style.

Last month, he noted that not all of the young immigrants who would benefit from the DREAM Act are star students. “For everyone who’s a valedictorian, there’s another 100 out there that weigh 130 pounds and they’ve got calves the size of cantaloupes because they’re hauling 75 pounds of marijuana across the desert,” he said.

This week, he turned his eloquence to the topic of climate change. Here’s what he said on Tuesday at an event sponsored by the Koch-funded group Americans for Prosperity, as reported by The Messenger of Fort Dodge, Iowa:

King said efforts to fight global warming are both economically harmful and unnecessary.

“It is not proven, it’s not science. It’s more of a religion than a science,” he said.

Which kinda sounds like a slam not just on people who believe in climate change but on people who believe in God. As Daily Kos put it, “So to recap, global warming is bullshit, like religion.”

It’s not the first time King has made the religion comparison. He said something similar in 2010, and added that concern about climate change “might be the modern version of the rain dance.”

After his religion comment on Tuesday, King got all science-y:

He said that even if carbon dioxide in the atmosphere causes the earth to warm, environmentalists only look at the bad from that, not the good.

“Everything that might result from a warmer planet is always bad in (environmentalists’) analysis,” he said. “There will be more photosynthesis going on if the Earth gets warmer. … And if sea levels go up 4 or 6 inches, I don’t know if we’d know that.”

He said sea level is not a precise measurement.

“We don’t know where sea level is even, let alone be able to say that it’s going to come up an inch globally because some polar ice caps might melt because there’s CO2 suspended in the atmosphere,” he said.

Because King is unable to distinguish science from religion, he may be unaware that we do, in fact, know where sea level is. Scientists have “instruments” that “measure” it. Spoiler: It is rising.

Lisa Hymas is senior editor at Grist. You can follow her on Twitter and Google+.

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Steve King insults climate scientists and religious Americans simultaneously

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Anti-Islam Activists Are Freaking Out About Crayons Now

Mother Jones

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Anti-Shariah activists have a new target in their sights: Crayola. Late last week the Pickens County (Ga.) Republican party posted a call to action on its website about a new promotion from the world’s leading crayon manufacturer, which had begun offering free Islamic-themed coloring pages in honor of Ramadan. Zut alors! The images are pretty innocuous—one features a prayer rug; another features a young boy kneeling while reading from the Koran. But the Pickens GOP sees something more nefarious:

Recall that Muslims consider Ramadan the “month of jihad” and “month of victory” over infidels. Crayola should remind kids not to try and draw Muhammad lest their parents need to fend off Muslims and enter witness relocation – like the creator of Everyone Draw Muhammad Day – since the FBI nor anyone else will protect them.

Christmas trees and bunnies abound but a search for the Bible returned zero results.

contact Crayola:@CrayolaListening to Consumers and CustomersConsumer AffairsCrayola LLC1100 Church LaneEaston, PA 18044-0431-or-Click here to contact us electronically.About Our Products – in the U.S. or Canada:For Crayola®, Silly Putty®, Portfolio Series and Pop Art Pixies products, call 1-800-272-9652 1-800-CRAYOLA.

Both the Pickens County GOP and another anti-Shariah website, the appropriately named “Creeping Sharia,” both published the exact same text on the exact same day, so it’s not clear who plagiarized whom. Crayola is in good company. Other American institutions that have fallen under the spell of Shariah (according to anti-Shariah activists) include David Petraeus, the grocery store Wegman’s, and Nashville’s Hutton Hotel.

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Anti-Islam Activists Are Freaking Out About Crayons Now

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2 Gigantic New NSA Revelations?

Mother Jones

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Yesterday, Dana Liebelson pointed out “5 Intriguing New NSA Revelations From Edward Snowden.” Read it! But I want to focus on just two of these things, which are way more than merely intriguing.

1. PRISM provides real-time access to email and chat.

A couple of days ago, the Washington Post released four more slides from the PowerPoint deck that describes the PRISM program. One of them is on the right, and it explicitly says that PRISM provides NSA analysts with real-time notification of email events and chat logins. The Post rather mysteriously says nothing more about this except that it “reflects the availability, confirmed by The Post’s reporting, of real-time surveillance as well as stored content.”

This is obviously important for its own sake, but also because it sheds some additional light on the contention that PRISM provides “direct access” to servers from Google, Microsoft, and others. If this stuff is truly available in real-time, then NSA really would have to have direct access. Alternatively, this slide could simply mean that PRISM retains records of events that were collected in real time by other NSA programs. But which is it?

2. All of your cellphone calls are being recorded.

This is from a speech that Glenn Greenwald gave last Friday:

Another document that I probably shouldn’t share since it’s not published but I am going to share it with you anyway—and this one’s coming soon but you’re getting a little preview—It talks about how a brand new technology enables the National Security Agency to redirect into its repositories one billion cell phone calls every single day.

….It doesn’t mean they’re listening to every call. It means they’re storing every call and have the capability to listen to them at any time and it does mean that they’re collecting millions upon million upon millions of our phone and email records.

What Greenwald is saying is that NSA doesn’t just collect records of calls, it actually records a billion cellphone calls per day. Are these domestic calls, or only international calls? If it includes domestic calls, it’s more explosive by an order of magnitude than anything else he’s reported so far. Stay tuned.

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2 Gigantic New NSA Revelations?

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Rick Perry’s 3 Dumbest Comments on Teen Pregnancy

Mother Jones

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Texas Gov. Rick Perry isn’t happy about Democratic state Sen. Wendy Davis’ 11-hour (11th hour) filibuster of a strict anti-abortion bill that would ban pregnancies after 20 weeks and close all but five abortion providers in the nation’s second-largest state. On Wednesday, he announced plans to convene a special session of the Legislature next month so Republicans can reintroduce the legislation. On Thursday, he took a more personal shot at Davis. Referring to the fact that Davis was herself a teen mom (she had her first child at 19, before going on to Texas Christian University and Harvard Law), Perry mused: “It is just unfortunate that she hasn’t learned from her own example that every life must be given a chance to realize its full potential and that every life matters.”

This isn’t the first time Perry has wandered into uncomfortable territory when talking about teen pregnancy, though. He sort of has a knack for it.

In February, he blamed rising teen pregnancy rates on the fact that America had strayed from the core values exemplified by the Boy Scouts—something he feared would be exacerbated if the organization drifted from its morals and embraced openly gay members. The Boy Scouts advocate abstinence before marriage. Then again, so does the state of Texas—and all it has to show for it is the third-highest teen pregnancy rate in the nation.

Speaking of that, in a 2011 interview that went viral during his presidential campaign, Perry was asked by Texas Tribune editor Evan Smith to explain the disconnect between Texas’ high teen pregnancy rate and its policy of abstinence-only sex education. “Abstinence works,” Perry said, to laughter from the audience. He continued:

It works. Maybe it’s the way that it’s being taught or the way that it’s being applied out there, but the fact of the matter is it is the best form to teach our children. I’m gonna tell you from my own personal life abstinence works. And the point is if we’re not teaching it and we’re not impressing it on them, no, but if the point is we’re gonna go stand up here and say, “Listen, y’all go have sex and go have whatever is going on and we’ll worry about that and here’s the ways to have safe sex,” I’m sorry, call me old-fashioned if you want, that is not what I’m gonna stand up in front of the people of Texas and say that’s the way we need to go and forget about abstinence.

It is just unfortunate that the governor of Texas hasn’t learned from his own example that nothing good ever happens when he talks about teen pregnancy.

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Rick Perry’s 3 Dumbest Comments on Teen Pregnancy

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