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We’re Still Losing the War on Carbon

Mother Jones

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This story first appeared on the TomDispatch website.

Listening to President Obama’s State of the Union address, it would have been easy to conclude that we were slowly but surely gaining in the war on climate change. “Our energy policy is creating jobs and leading to a cleaner, safer planet,” the president said. “Over the past eight years, the United States has reduced our total carbon pollution more than any other nation on Earth.” Indeed, it’s true that in recent years, largely thanks to the dampening effects of the Great Recession, US carbon emissions were in decline (though they grew by 2 percent in 2013). Still, whatever the president may claim, we’re not heading toward a “cleaner, safer planet.” If anything, we’re heading toward a dirtier, more dangerous world.

A series of recent developments highlight the way we are losing ground in the epic struggle to slow global warming. This has not been for lack of effort. Around the world, dedicated organizations, communities, and citizens have been working day by day to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote the use of renewable sources of energy. The struggle to prevent construction of the Keystone XL tar-sands pipeline is a case in point. As noted in a recent New York Times article, the campaign against that pipeline has galvanized the environmental movement around the country and attracted thousands of activists to Washington, D.C., for protests and civil disobedience at the White House. But efforts like these, heroic as they may be, are being overtaken by a more powerful force: the gravitational pull of cheap, accessible carbon-based fuels, notably oil, coal, and natural gas.

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We’re Still Losing the War on Carbon

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Europe Going Wobbly on Carbon Emission Goals?

Mother Jones

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Speaking of carbon emissions, the Financial Times reports that high energy prices are “undermining support” in Europe for rules that mandate increased use of renewable energy sources:

European commissioners are considering scrapping the targets for 2030 in a move that would please big utility companies but infuriate environmental groups….A proposed compromise, at the heart of discussions over the 2030 package, envisages that a renewables target, of up to 27 per cent, would be non-binding.

….This compromise for 2030, if accepted in the face of German opposition, would represent a significant change from the EU’s 2020 targets, which included binding goals that EU states should cut overall greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent from 1990 levels and derive 20 per cent of their power from renewables.

A long, grinding economic downturn cuts energy usage in the short run, but reduces tolerance for higher energy prices in the long run. That’s what we’re seeing happen here.

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Europe Going Wobbly on Carbon Emission Goals?

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Carbon trading is booming in North America, no thanks to U.S. or Canadian governments

Carbon trading is booming in North America, no thanks to U.S. or Canadian governments

NASA

In most of the carbon-trading world, it has been getting cheaper in recent years to buy the rights to pollute the atmosphere with climate-changing carbon dioxide. That’s largely because recession-afflicted Europe is awash with too many carbon allowances for its trading scheme to have any real bite, and because demand for U.N.-issued allowances has crashed along with hopes of a meaningful international climate agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol.

But in a bleak year for carbon markets, North America was a rising star.

Despite ongoing failure by the U.S. and Canadian governments to impose limits or taxes on greenhouse gas pollution, state and regional initiatives on the east and west coasts of North America moved forward.

California and Quebec are now the most expensive places in the world in which to pump carbon dioxide into the air.

Still, the value of global carbon markets plummeted last year, according to a new analysis published by Thomson Reuters Point Carbon. “The healthy growth in the North American markets was not enough to compensate for a stagnating European market and the collapse of UN-issued credits,” it found.

For the first time since 2010, the global carbon markets receded year-on-year in terms of transacted volumes.  …

The drop in value was more significant: as European carbon prices continued to fall, and the price of international credits collapsed completely, the total value of the transactions was 38.5 billion euros [$52.3 billion], a 38 percent decrease from the 2012 value. …

The year saw a bloom in the North American carbon markets, with strong growth in California and renewed activity in the north-eastern states’ Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) market. We assess overall transactions to have been 390 million metric tonnes with a value of $2.8 billion (€2 billion). This equals a volume growth of 200 percent and a value growth of 262 percent.

In the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) that encompasses California and the Canadian province of Québec, carbon allowance and offset prices are the highest in the world, with the allowance price floor of $10.71/t (approximately €7.8) in 2013 and trades clearing above that.

As the following graph shows, North America still has a long way to go before it could rival the sheer size of the E.U. Emission Trading Scheme (which trades EUAs) or, to a lesser extent, the U.N.-run international market for certified emission reductions (CERs) and emission reduction units (ERUs):

Thomson Reuters Point CarbonClick to embiggen.

Other highlights in 2013 carbon-trading news included the launch of trading programs in China and Mexico. A lowlight was Australia’s election of a new prime minister, Tony Abbott, who pledges to dismantle his country’s trading program.


Source
Carbon Market Monitor: A Review of 2013, Thomson Reuters Point Carbon

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Carbon trading is booming in North America, no thanks to U.S. or Canadian governments

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Cloud shortage will push temperatures higher as climate warms

Cloud shortage will push temperatures higher as climate warms

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Climate scientists have looked to the heavens for help with their latest decades-long weather forecast. Their conclusion? “Oh, my god.”

Science has long struggled to forecast how global temperatures will be affected by a doubling of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere compared with pre-industrial times, which looks likely to occur this century. Recent consensus suggests that temperatures will rise by between 1.5 and 5 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 5.4 F). With a rise in CO2 levels to 400 parts per million, up from 280 in the 19th century, the world has warmed by nearly 1 C so far.

By modeling how clouds will be affected by the rising temperatures, a team of Australian and French scientists reported Wednesday in Nature that they expect the temperature rise to be “more than 3 degrees” – at the upper end of the projected range.

“4C would likely be catastrophic rather than simply dangerous,” the report’s lead author, Australian climate scientist Steven Sherwood, told the Guardian. “For example, it would make life difficult, if not impossible, in much of the tropics, and would guarantee the eventual melting of the Greenland ice sheet and some of the Antarctic ice sheet.”

Using dozens of computer models, the researchers concluded that water vapor will circulate more extensively than previously anticipated between the different layers of the atmosphere as temperatures climb. That will mean fewer clouds will form, leaving more of the Earth exposed to the sun’s rays. And that means more warming.

“[S]uch mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer at a rate that increases as the climate warms,” the scientists wrote in their paper. “[O]n the basis of the available data, the new understanding presented here pushes the likely long-term global warming towards the upper end of model ranges.”

The paper is one of several recent studies looking at feedback loops between climate change and clouds, according to Chris Bretherton, a professor of atmospheric science and applied mathematics at the University of Washington. “All of these studies suggest that cloud feedbacks may be at the more positive end of what climate models predict, which would be scary,” Bretherton wrote in an email to Grist. “None of them are without issues of interpretation that will require more research to delve into, so I would not rush to assume the case for strong positive cloud feedbacks and high climate sensitivity is settled.”

In the meantime, we’re all advised to pray for rain.


Source
Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing, Nature

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Cloud shortage will push temperatures higher as climate warms

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The Obama administration is undermining its own plans for carbon capture

The Obama administration is undermining its own plans for carbon capture

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The Obama administration will soon require new coal-fired power plants to capture the carbon dioxide they produce and store it underground. Coal companies that had long touted “clean coal” turned on the idea, arguing that carbon sequestration isn’t commercially viable.

But don’t you worry about the poor coal industry. The fossil fuel guys have a trick up their sleeve. Here is the AP, reporting on an approach adopted at a new coal power plant in Mississippi:

At first, the idea behind “carbon-capture” technology was to make coal plants cleaner by burying the carbon dioxide deep underground that they typically pump out of smokestacks.

But that green vision proved too expensive and complicated, so the administration accepted a trade-off.

To help the environment, the government allows power companies to sell the carbon dioxide to oil companies, which pump it into old oil fields to force more crude to the surface. A side benefit is that the carbon gets permanently stuck underground.

The program shows the ingenuity of the oil industry, which is using government green-energy money to subsidize oil production. But it also showcases the environmental trade-offs Obama is willing to make, but rarely talks about, in his fight against global warming. …

Four power plants in the U.S. and Canada … intend to sell their carbon waste for oil recovery.

So say goodbye to carbon dioxide, and hello to oil that will be burned to produce more carbon dioxide.

As if it weren’t bad enough that this approach undermines the whole intent of carbon capture, scientists recently linked the practice of injecting carbon dioxide into oil fields to a major flurry of earthquakes in Texas in 2009 and 2010.


Source
To clean up coal, Obama pushes more oil production, The Associated Press

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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China launches world’s second-biggest carbon-trading market

China launches world’s second-biggest carbon-trading market

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If you find yourself passing through the Chinese city of Guangzhou with 61 renminbi burning a hole in your pocket, you could drop by the world’s newest and bound-to-be-second-largest carbon-trading market and pick up a carbon credit as a souvenir.

The first day of trading at China’s fourth carbon-trading market was described as brisk on Thursday. A cement company kicked things off, buying 20,000 carbon permits from an energy company in early trading at the equivalent of about $10 a pop. Reuters reports:

Early trade volume in Guangdong’s carbon permit market, expected to be the world’s second largest in terms of carbon dioxide covered, surpassed full-day totals that started the country’s three other carbon exchanges.

China, the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, wants to use markets to achieve its target to cut emissions per unit of gross domestic product to 40 percent to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 — at the lowest possible cost.

Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen have already opened markets of their own; Hubei Province and the cities of Chongqing and Tianjin are expected to follow in the next few months.

The new market will become China’s main carbon-trading hub, second in trading volume only to one operated by the European Union. There, similar carbon credits trade for a little less than $7.

Once all of China’s seven planned carbon markets are operating, they will regulate emissions that are roughly equivalent to Germany’s carbon footprint.


Source
Chinese Carbon Market Opens to a Busy First Day, Reuters

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Plants will reach point where they couldn’t possibly take another bite of our CO2

Plants will reach point where they couldn’t possibly take another bite of our CO2

John Upton

Plants love carbon dioxide. It’s their oxygen. That’s why forests, meadows, and the like are called carbon sinks — they help draw a fraction of our CO2 emissions back out of the atmosphere and into the soil.

But we can’t expect plants to clean up after us forever.

After running computer simulations, European and Japanese scientists concluded that plants that haven’t been bulldozed, poisoned, burnt up, or attacked by invasive pests will continue to absorb more carbon as atmospheric carbon levels rise. But they found that found that rising temperatures could eventually prevent vegetation from absorbing any more of our CO2 pollution.

That’s because heat waves dry out plants’ water reserves and put so much stress on vegetation that it can start releasing more carbon dioxide than it absorbs. As an example, one of the researchers, Andrew Friend of Cambridge, points to a 2003 heat wave in Europe during which “the amount of CO2 produced was sufficient to reverse the effect of four years of net ecosystem carbon sequestration.”

It appears that plants will hit the CO2 saturation point once the globe warms by about 4 degrees Celsius compared with preindustrial times, or 7.4 Fahrenheit. Which is kind of a terrifying number. Although the Earth has warmed a little less than 1 degree C so far, and although world leaders aim to cap warming at 2 degrees C, projections based on our current fuel-burning practices point to warming eventually peaking at about 4 degrees C — or more.

The conclusions of Friend and his colleagues, published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggest that should we hit that 4 C point, carbon dioxide levels could start to really climb as Earth’s plants release more carbon than they absorb.

So there’s one more reason to try to not reach that point. World leaders, listen up!

PNASThe green on this map shows areas where the world’s plants will suck carbon out of the atmosphere — until global temperatures rise more than 4 degrees Celsius. Then we’re in trouble. (Click to embiggen.)


Source
Four degree rise will end vegetation ‘carbon sink’ (University of Cambridge press release), PhysOrg
Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2, PNAS

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Plants will reach point where they couldn’t possibly take another bite of our CO2

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What These Climate Scientists Said About Earth’s Future Will Terrify You

Mother Jones

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This story first appeared on the TomDispatch website.

I grew up planning for my future, wondering which college I would attend, what to study, and later on, where to work, which articles to write, what my next book might be, how to pay a mortgage, and which mountaineering trip I might like to take next.

Now, I wonder about the future of our planet. During a recent visit with my eight-year-old niece and 10- and 12-year-old nephews, I stopped myself from asking them what they wanted to do when they grew up, or any of the future-oriented questions I used to ask myself. I did so because the reality of their generation may be that questions like where they will work could be replaced by: Where will they get their fresh water? What food will be available? And what parts of their country and the rest of the world will still be habitable?


How much should you worry about an Arctic methane bomb? The Climate Desk interviewed leading experts skeptical of the threat.

The reason, of course, is climate change—and just how bad it might be came home to me in the summer of 2010. I was climbing Mount Rainier in Washington State, taking the same route I had used in a 1994 ascent. Instead of experiencing the metal tips of the crampons attached to my boots crunching into the ice of a glacier, I was aware that, at high altitudes, they were still scraping against exposed volcanic rock. In the pre-dawn night, sparks shot from my steps.

The route had changed dramatically enough to stun me. I paused at one point to glance down the steep cliffs at a glacier bathed in soft moonlight 100 meters below. It took my breath away when I realized that I was looking at what was left of the enormous glacier I’d climbed in 1994, the one that—right at this spot—had left those crampons crunching on ice. I stopped in my tracks, breathing the rarefied air of such altitudes, my mind working hard to grasp the climate-change-induced drama that had unfolded since I was last at that spot.

I haven’t returned to Mount Rainier to see just how much further that glacier has receded in the last few years, but recently I went on a search to find out just how bad it might turn out to be. I discovered a set of perfectly serious scientists—not the majority of all climate scientists by any means, but thoughtful outliers—who suggest that it isn’t just really, really bad; it’s catastrophic. Some of them even think that, if the record ongoing releases of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, thanks to the burning of fossil fuels, are aided and abetted by massive releases of methane, an even more powerful greenhouse gas, life as we humans have known it might be at an end on this planet. They fear that we may be at—and over—a climate change precipice hair-raisingly quickly.

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What These Climate Scientists Said About Earth’s Future Will Terrify You

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Ozone layer will take five more decades to fully recover

Ozone layer will take five more decades to fully recover

gr33n3gg

Remember when the world came together to save the ozone layer — even Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher? The Montreal Protocol, a treaty that went into effect in 1989, curbed the use of CFCs and other chemicals that tear up the planet’s UV-absorbing sheath of ozone. But that was nearly a generation ago — and things still haven’t been fully patched up in the lower stratosphere.

The ongoing fragility of the ozone layer reminds us how long it can take for atmospheric conditions to stabilize after we have screwed them up. The L.A. Times reports:

In 2006, the ozone hole grew larger than ever. It reached a similar extent in 2011, before shrinking to its second-smallest size in 2012. Naturally occurring meteorological conditions were mostly responsible for those fluctuations, two NASA studies found.

Over the next two decades scientists expect the ozone hole to continue to vary widely.

“It’s not going to be a smooth ride,” said Susan Strahan, a senior research scientist at NASA. “There will be some bumps in the road, but overall the trend is downward.”

Not until chlorine falls below 1990s levels, a milestone scientists predict for sometime between 2015 and 2030, will the phase-out of ozone-depleting substances begin to have a discernible effect.

Prognosis for a full recovery? NASA says it will happen around 2070.

NASAClick to embiggen.

It’s worth remembering that the chemicals that destroyed the ozone layer can persist in the atmosphere for decades. Carbon dioxide pollution, the main cause of global warming, can persist in the atmosphere for centuries.


Source
NASA says ozone hole stabilizing but won’t fully recover until 2070, Los Angeles Times

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Ozone layer will take five more decades to fully recover

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Turns out those old-fashioned ways of farming were actually pretty smart

Turns out those old-fashioned ways of farming were actually pretty smart

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This worked better in the olden days when fish hung out here too.

Remember those things humans did for thousands of years to feed themselves before we came up with all kinds of newfangled methods? We might want to go back to doing those old-school things.

The United Nations recently formed the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, a 115-country group that’s trying to bring down skyrocketing rates of species extinction. During meetings in Turkey this week, the group is discussing a strategy that it thinks could help protect biodiversity: a return to indigenous systems of farming and managing land.

One example of a traditional farming technique that the group hopes to resuscitate: the ancient Chinese practice of rearing fish in rice paddies. Adding fish to a paddy helps manage insect pests without the need for pesticides, provides natural fertilizer for the crop, feeds birds and other wildlife, and produces a sustainable meat supply for farming families.

Other examples mentioned by the group include fishing restrictions imposed by Pacific Island communities and traditional crop rotations practiced everywhere from Tanzania to Thailand.

“Indigenous and local knowledge … has played a key role in arresting biodiversity loss and conserving biodiversity,” the group’s chair, Zakri Abdul Hamid, told Reuters.

Traditional farming techniques can also help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. That’s why IPBES officials are hopeful that efforts to resurrect them will be kick-started with the assistance of funds from the sale of carbon credits.


Source
Ancient farming seen curbing extinctions of animals, plants, Reuters

John Upton is a science fan and green news boffin who tweets, posts articles to Facebook, and blogs about ecology. He welcomes reader questions, tips, and incoherent rants: johnupton@gmail.com.

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Turns out those old-fashioned ways of farming were actually pretty smart

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